[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:31 pm
Short answer: No one knows...
Haha, then what's the point of saying anything that sounds like a calamity is headed our way? I mean, if the ones at the top don't know, then anything I declare right here carries as much weight as what they are saying since none of us knows. That's what I mean when I say it's worthless. It's a statement that doesn't help anyone.

People are stocking up on supplies, sure. But that's something that people should have done before anyone knew this virus existed. So telling people to prepare is just repeating the same recommendations people get every time there is a tornado, hurricane, or earthquake.

It makes me wonder what the plan is for people who can't afford to stockpile supplies. If this really goes down this way then those with thousands of rounds of ammo will be glad they have them. The rest of us will have to get medieval.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Meanwhile an estimated 29 million people have been made stick by the flu here in the U.S. already.
gameoverman wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:36 pm Haha, then what's the point of saying anything that sounds like a calamity is headed our way? I mean, if the ones at the top don't know, then anything I declare right here carries as much weight as what they are saying since none of us knows. That's what I mean when I say it's worthless. It's a statement that doesn't help anyone.
To paraphrase a public health maxim, anything we say before a public health crisis is over-reacting. Anything we say after is too late. The best we can do is maintain a constant media presence and communicate to people that just because they're not seeing something directly in front of them, that doesn't mean it's not coming and they shouldn't be aware. As such, prepare *now* for what might happen. It's a fine line. Too much and people resist and claim we're being ridiculous. Not enough and they complain we didn't warn them. In this day and age figuring out the best way to communicate risk and preparation is not easy by any means.
People are stocking up on supplies, sure. But that's something that people should have done before anyone knew this virus existed. So telling people to prepare is just repeating the same recommendations people get every time there is a tornado, hurricane, or earthquake.
Which many people still don't do. I really thought after Hurricane Sandy things were going to change (at least in my general area) but there have been additional smaller event in my area where people are absolutely crippled after not having power for 24 hours. It just happened again a few months ago in an area slightly north of me after an ice storm rolled through and people in $500K homes were complaining about long lines at a pizzeria - because they had no way to heat their homes or prepare any food without power. Not everyone needs to be Cody Lundin, but if you can't survive 72 hours sheltered in place, that's potentially concerning.
It makes me wonder what the plan is for people who can't afford to stockpile supplies. If this really goes down this way then those with thousands of rounds of ammo will be glad they have them. The rest of us will have to get medieval.
If it get to that point we're collectively fuct, so I'd say enjoy whatever supplies you have and go down swinging. :wink:
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:21 pm Happened to be out of the county on Friday and picked up a few thousand rounds of ammo. I stock up because of the insane tax here and it's a 2 hour round trip, so when I find myself out there I take advantage.

But the guy at the register was like, "Coronavirus, ammirite?". He said they were selling a ton of ammo, dry rations, and water purifier supplies.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Madmarcus »

Day Three or so of the real effects here in Seoul. Mostly no change for me but I have a lot of privilege.

The students are reporting to school but teachers are and running virtual classrooms. No big deal for me. Some additional work setting up new procedures and so on but nothing huge. Daily life hasn't been changed. You can't buy masks or some cleaning type products anywhere but otherwise no big deal. Big lines at Costco as people stock up. I'm an introvert so the fact that some large gatherings are being cancelled isn't that big a deal although my wife was annoyed that the other teachers didn't want to go see a movie due to virus fears.

The people having it rough as those with little kids. The school requires us to keep teaching but the government shut all daycares so little ones have to come to work. I've heard fun stories about kids hanging out in classrooms while the teacher is trying to teach over Hangout/Meet. They all seem to center on poop for some reason.

It helps that I am salaried and work for a well established (rich) private school. I can expect to be paid, I have good healthcare (that even works back in the US), and the school should be able to start up again next semester even if thing cause a closure here in the spring.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

With multiple deaths in Iran and South Korea reported, the international death rates seems to be catching up to China... Still short, but quite a bit higher than less than 1% a few days about, to 1.4% as of today. China's death rate is still at 3.4%.

On the other hand, China seems to be reporting fewer new cases, and rate of increase is slowing. WHO seems to be accepting that China has the thing under control. It's more worried now about Italy, South Korea, and possibly Iran.

EDIT: OTOH, it seems at least 25 different labs around the world are working toward a vaccine.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

I signed my death warrant today. I was trying to use my Regions card to pay for some milk and it kept giving me an error. The register lady said that almost all card from that bank were doing it and she thought it had something to do with cheapest cards made in China. I joked it will probably give me coronvirus. Right then my brain said "well sir you're fucked" .

So I expect to be dead and gone within a month. My dog gets my things. He is a big gamer.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Freyland »

Daehawk wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm I signed my death warrant today. I was trying to use my Regions card to pay for some milk and it kept giving me an error. The register lady said that almost all card from that bank were doing it and she thought it had something to do with cheapest cards made in China. I joked it will probably give me coronvirus. Right then my brain said "well sir you're fucked" .

So I expect to be dead and gone within a month. My dog gets my things. He is a big gamer.
Bet he's so excited, he goes through the woof!
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kelric »

Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 pm
Daehawk wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm So I expect to be dead and gone within a month. My dog gets my things. He is a big gamer.
Bet he's so excited, he goes through the woof!
..........no.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Freyland »

Kelric wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:28 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 pm
Daehawk wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm So I expect to be dead and gone within a month. My dog gets my things. He is a big gamer.
Bet he's so excited, he goes through the woof!
..........no.
Ruff crowd.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Freyland wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:38 am
Kelric wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:28 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:14 pm
Daehawk wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:30 pm So I expect to be dead and gone within a month. My dog gets my things. He is a big gamer.
Bet he's so excited, he goes through the woof!
..........no.
Ruff crowd.
Pawsatively.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Torfish »

Trump and CDC calling a news conference for tonight.

My company has limited travel outside the US and banned travel to the most infected countries.

I'm not fearful on the virus itself. I'm more concerned about our economy. Either way, I've not seen a situation like this in my lifetime.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

UsulofDoom wrote: Thu Feb 20, 2020 10:54 am Also none in South America ,central America
BAM!
The Brazilian government confirmed the first case of a fast-spreading new coronavirus in Latin America, officials from the Brazil Health Ministry said, after a Sao Paulo hospital flagged the possible infection of a 61-year-old who had visited Italy. The diagnosis comes during Brazil’s carnival holiday, a peak time for domestic travel when millions of revelers throng to major cities for raucous street celebrations. Brazil is tracking 20 suspected cases of the virus in the country, health officials told reporters at a news briefing.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

This got me thinking back to a novel I discovered in my high school library I used to read during breaks. It was called Pandemic and the art on the cover I think was a skull. I cant for the life of me find that book online now. Theres a new one out this decade thats ruining the results...plus Robin Cook has a book. Damn same name titles.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Dogstar »



Please remember that the mortality rate can fluctuate based on any number of things -- but an overloaded health system definitely wouldn't help.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Coronavirus closures reveal vast scale of China’s secretive wildlife farm industry
Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry.

Until a few weeks ago wildlife farming was still being promoted by government agencies as an easy way for rural Chinese people to get rich.

But the Covid-19 outbreak, which has now led to 2,666 deaths and over 77,700 known infections, is thought to have originated in wildlife sold at a market in Wuhan in early December, prompting a massive rethink by authorities on how to manage the trade.

China issued a temporary ban on wildlife trade to curb the spread of the virus at the end of January and began a widespread crackdown on breeding facilities in early February.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

So what kind of precautions would you take if you were responsible for the well being of a 94 year old? :think: I'm not sure I can break her of the habit of making me pick up something at the grocery almost daily, or those several doctor visits a month for no real good reason. :roll:
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:38 pm Coronavirus closures reveal vast scale of China’s secretive wildlife farm industry
Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry.

Until a few weeks ago wildlife farming was still being promoted by government agencies as an easy way for rural Chinese people to get rich.

But the Covid-19 outbreak, which has now led to 2,666 deaths and over 77,700 known infections, is thought to have originated in wildlife sold at a market in Wuhan in early December, prompting a massive rethink by authorities on how to manage the trade.

China issued a temporary ban on wildlife trade to curb the spread of the virus at the end of January and began a widespread crackdown on breeding facilities in early February.
I read someplace that lab animals that were experimented on have been being sold on the down low and that might be the source
https://www.newstarget.com/2020-02-26-c ... -meat.html
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Talked to a few PCPs at lunch. Re: Covid-19 they said expected it to be pretty bad in the US. The one positive is that so far most of the cases have been in areas with lower standards of care than the US so fatality numbers are probably higher. Italy should give us a better picture.

One of them said that China probably has 10x the deaths than being reported but that was just based on gossip. Nothing really new.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by hitbyambulance »

has anyone's place of employ issued a CoViD-19 contingency plan yet?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

More new cases are reported outside of China (459 cases) than within China (412 cases) as of 2/25. Most of the new cases are in South korea, Japan, and Singapore, but we have clusters in Italy (and neighbors and Iran/Bahrain.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Issued? No. Do they have one? Yes. Communicating what the plan is (or would be) is smart. Embrace it. Understand it. Figure things out now. It pleases me to hear that organizations are doing this.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:48 pm Issued? No. Do they have one? Yes. Communicating what the plan is (or would be) is smart. Embrace it. Understand it. Figure things out now. I
+1 Especially as it evolving. We actually came of Defcon 2 on Monday and are simply at a heightened state of awareness where certain things will earn individual 12 days of working from home and we require you declare parts of your personal life to HR (like, you have family visiting from China?, make sure you VPN works now...)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

em2nought wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:02 pm So what kind of precautions would you take if you were responsible for the well being of a 94 year old? :think: I'm not sure I can break her of the habit of making me pick up something at the grocery almost daily, or those several doctor visits a month for no real good reason. :roll:
My approach when helping older people is based on their mental state. Is she of sound mind? Then keep her up to date on the known risks, suggested ways to minimize risks, and any other information you think she needs. Then respect her decision on what she wants to do. If she wants to continue her life as is, that's up to her.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by RMC »

Here is one of the Physicians that works at my hospital system, and what they put out on You Tube. Lots of other things going around internally for the plan on what to do, how to treat, when to do it, etc.. But this is out there on You Tube, so I figure you can all see it if you want too:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zilCzi ... yHospitals
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 pm has anyone's place of employ issued a CoViD-19 contingency plan yet?
We have emergency plans that include pandemics. Since I'm non-clinical I can probably stay home in the bunker until clinical support staff start getting sick. Then I get to sweep floors or something.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by RMC »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:09 pm
hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 pm has anyone's place of employ issued a CoViD-19 contingency plan yet?
We have emergency plans that include pandemics. Since I'm non-clinical I can probably stay home in the bunker until clinical support staff start getting sick. Then I get to sweep floors or something.
Right there with ya. Maybe since I am management, I would have to take out the trash or something....
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Madmarcus »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 pm has anyone's place of employ issued a CoViD-19 contingency plan yet?
The decision was made yesterday that we are no longer required to teach from the school (we are teaching virtually and students may not come to campus). And thus the expat exodus began at at least half the teachers arranged a flight for Friday evening. Most are heading to their home countries but some are taking working vacations and going to SE Asia.

I'm staying here.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

Well, our company's CEO sent "thoughts and best wishes to our Chinese colleagues." And announced they are moving a plant in Shenzhen. Didn't say where, but some deep-discounted factory space recently made available in Wuhan would surprise none of us.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

The first case of unknown origins (i.e. not a case related to travel to an affected area or exposure to someone that did) has been identified in Northern California. As a reminder, this is expected.
Last edited by Smoove_B on Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

I just saw a headline that Trump appointed Pence to oversee coronavirus efforts. With such a top scientific mind in charge, I feel much calmer now.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, we're R&P it up over that very issue. In short - not good. Not good at all.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

This is the latest video from Matt and Vivian. Matt is an American who has lived in China for over 10 years. His wife is a main lander Chinese girl. They just had a baby a couple years ago .Nice folk. Anyways Viv gives you some info and the Chinese habits and thinking and takes you to a wet market. Ive been watching their videos and their friends Serpentza for many years now...long before any of this started. The market Viv visits is actually a LOT cleaner than most Ive seen. Also judging by the age os their child thats from sometime last year.



This is a video from one of Matt's friends that lived in Wuhan. I dont know them and have never seen their videos before. But they show Wuhan as they were there and evac'd out. The city is dead when they filmed it. No one out.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kelric »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:36 pm has anyone's place of employ issued a CoViD-19 contingency plan yet?
Everyone work from home. That isn't Official Issued Policy, but the CEO said as much on Tuesday and today the managers were checking that everyone could work from home in the future.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

CDC is stumped at the latest developement... They found a 15th person in the US that has COVID-19... but he didn't travel and as far as they can tell, he didn't come into contact with any of the other infected. They are not sure where he got it from.

THAT is the worrying part.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes. Also, not worrying. Expected.

EDIT: Finally some non-paywall details:
"At this time, the patient's exposure is unknown. It's possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States. Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It's also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected," the CDC explained in their statement.
The case was caught by the public health system in Northern California.
(emphasis mine)

This is what's supposed to happen. And as we transition into the next phase, what happens now is truly on the backs of locals. Unfortunately, public health service is not uniform throughout the country, so depending on how and where this moves, things could get wacky.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Victoria Raverna »

Is this normal with virus? Or this is a strange case?

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... tive-again
(CAIXIN GLOBAL) - About 14 per cent of patients who recovered from the novel coronavirus and were discharged from hospitals in southern China's Guangdong province were tested positive again in later check-ups, according to the local health authority.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Ok boys, guns and ammo. Thats all you need. With guns and ammo you can get everything else you need to survive later. (From the ones who didn't buy guns and ammo)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:07 pm Is this normal with virus? Or this is a strange case?

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... tive-again
(CAIXIN GLOBAL) - About 14 per cent of patients who recovered from the novel coronavirus and were discharged from hospitals in southern China's Guangdong province were tested positive again in later check-ups, according to the local health authority.
It's probably a side effect of the test. You can test "sero-positive" for a virus but no longer have the illness. Similar to how a vaccine will make the person test sero-positive for the stuff it protects against. We don't know how China tests though.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Hodor.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Kasey Chang wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:17 amIt's probably a side effect of the test. You can test "sero-positive" for a virus but no longer have the illness. Similar to how a vaccine will make the person test sero-positive for the stuff it protects against. We don't know how China tests though.
The test would not cause someone to test positive for the illness after the disease has ended, no. I'm not sure if the question is whether or not it's unusual for this disease or any disease. For this disease? No one knows. For any disease, not common, but not impossible. Just look at how much we learned about Ebola (check Siljanus' signature) and how long the virus circulates after recovery.
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