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[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Unagi
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:34 am
Unagi wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:30 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 am
Where is Remus? I just read that Michigan is not allowing any of the e-learning to count toward the 180 days of school. What are they supposed to do then?
Seriously ??!
Honestly, I’m not clear on why the schools would bother with it, if they are getting no credit for it at all.
What a waste of MI state tax dollars.
It appears they don't think it is real learning.

They want to go from June 3-end of month, three weeks off, then 4 weeks from July-August to finish up 19/20. Then start Sept for 20/21 and end at the end of June. Reportedly teachers are not happy because why are they putting in effort for e-learning plans if they are meaningless and the Governor is mad as it came out of the Education Department without him knowing somehow.

So there is still time to fix it, sounds like. But man what a crazy plan.
Yeah. Exactly. As a teacher or school district admin, this would make any efforts they are doing now just a waste of resources’

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Paingod »

Cross-posted from R&P Pictures...

One of my kids' teachers sent this to him. My wife has it printed and pinned over her desk to help her cope.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

MA just joined the list of shelter-in-place states. Gov announced it will last until at least 4/7.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

ImLawBoy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:36 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 am
Where is Remus? I just read that Michigan is not allowing any of the e-learning to count toward the 180 days of school. What are they supposed to do then?
In Illinois they've declared this an act of God so they're not worrying about days of school at this point. E-learning stuff can help a student's grades, but cannot be counted against their grades.
Can you say that another way?
I’m not following what your saying they are saying.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Unagi wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:54 am
ImLawBoy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:36 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:46 am
Where is Remus? I just read that Michigan is not allowing any of the e-learning to count toward the 180 days of school. What are they supposed to do then?
In Illinois they've declared this an act of God so they're not worrying about days of school at this point. E-learning stuff can help a student's grades, but cannot be counted against their grades.
Can you say that another way?
I’m not following what your saying they are saying.
It sounds like some grading that was done when I was in college. A good grade on an assignment would be included in the math for your final grade; a bad grade on an assignment would be ignored.
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Unagi
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

So, if you can pass math through this e-learning environment, then great. Otherwise, the state is still saying they are going to provide you with future education (in some unknown form, as of now) until you do.

Credit for demonstrating you are ‘getting’ your education, and yet the state isn’t blaming the student for not being able to learn in this environment.
Seems like how it needs to work.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:40 am
MA just joined the list of shelter-in-place states. Gov announced it will last until at least 4/7.
Crap. Well, from this list of things that can still open, it doesn't look like very much changes.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by ImLawBoy »

That's right. They know it's not a great learning environment, so they don't want to punish kids for not learning so well. They want to give them credit if they succeed, though.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Paingod wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:50 am
Then a new thought came into my head. Can this be transmitted by mosquitoes? No one knows yet.
There's no reason to believe this can be transmitted by mosquitoes, no. Of bigger concern will be what happens when your county/state mosquito control program cannot stay on top of mosquito control because they have people out sick with COVID-19 and the viruses of concern (West Nile, EEE, Dengue, etc...) are now a serious threat to human and animal populations.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Smoove_B wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:10 am
Paingod wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:50 am
Then a new thought came into my head. Can this be transmitted by mosquitoes? No one knows yet.
There's no reason to believe this can be transmitted by mosquitoes, no. Of bigger concern will be what happens when your county/state mosquito control program cannot stay on top of mosquito control because they have people out sick with COVID-19 and the viruses of concern (West Nile, EEE, Dengue, etc...) are now a serious threat to human and animal populations.
Maybe I chose I bad time to move to a southern coastal city. :doh:

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by msteelers »

I wonder if Zika is still a concern locally. That was a big scare a couple of years ago here, especially for pregnant mothers.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Blackhawk »

Indiana just gave the shelter-in-place order, along with various other measures.
[This space left intentionally blank.]

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

msteelers wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm
I wonder if Zika is still a concern locally. That was a big scare a couple of years ago here, especially for pregnant mothers.
I don't follow FL mosquito control closely (which might surprise some), but if I'm to believe reports, the last locally transmitted cases of Zika in FL were in 2017. Heavy monitoring/prevention looks to have continued to control it in 2019, with no locally-acquired cases (there were non-local cases in 2019).

But yes, you could potentially add Zika to the list of mosquito viruses of concern. More info here.
Last edited by Smoove_B on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

msteelers wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm
I wonder if Zika is still a concern locally. That was a big scare a couple of years ago here, especially for pregnant mothers.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Max Peck »

Taiwan is providing a pretty telling example of how much of a difference it makes to be prepared and proactive at a national level.

Inside Taiwan during COVID-19: How the country kept schools and businesses open throughout pandemic
It's almost life as usual for the Lin family of Taiwan during the coronavirus pandemic — with a few noticeable exceptions.

"We didn't worry too much," said Leeli Chang, who lives with her husband, Terry Lin, and her daughter, Peggy, 8, in a suburb of Taipei.

The family, like many in Taiwan, has continued to go to work, to school and out shopping as normal since the COVID-19 pandemic began, but now with some precautions in place — such as regular temperature checks and hand sanitizer dispensers outside most public buildings and protective masks.

Taiwan was hit hard by the SARS pandemic in 2003, but this time, the government took swift and early actions when it first became aware of an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, China.

By mid-February, the territory had increased its mask and alcoholic sanitizer production, introduced fines for raising the price of medical supplies and set cleaning standards for public transportation and other areas, such as trains and schools.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

Blackhawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:11 pm
Indiana just gave the shelter-in-place order, along with various other measures.
Do you have a link for that? I can't find anything.

Right now I see CA, NY, NJ, OH, CT, IL, PA, DE, KY, LA, and MI.

Edit: Never mind - found it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Kraken wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:08 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:40 am
MA just joined the list of shelter-in-place states. Gov announced it will last until at least 4/7.
Crap. Well, from this list of things that can still open, it doesn't look like very much changes.
I think the idea of issuing a 'shelter in place' order is to stress that no unnecessary trips outside should be made. It's a psychological thing, the government is saying this is really serious. It's different that saying "don't gather in large groups', because 'don't gather' implies it's fine to be out and about as long as you avoid crowds. People will interpret that as 'it's fine to be out and about'.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Italy has now had 23 doctors die of COVID 19.
The number of doctors who have died in Italy since the coronavirus epidemic began has risen to 23, the Italian federation of doctors said today.
"Unfortunately, the sad list of doctors who fell during the Covid-19 epidemic is getting longer. And while the official data of infected health workers increases, released every evening by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, many doctors die suddenly, even if the cause of death is not directly attributable to the virus," the federation says in a statement on its website."

Some 19 of the 23 deceased doctors worked in the Lombardy region, the worst affected by coronavirus. The other four worked in Naples (South Italy), Emilia Romagna (north Italy) and Marche (central Italy).

Some 4,824 health workers have been infected by coronavirus, according to the latest report by the institute published on Sunday.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by morlac »

stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:59 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:11 pm
Indiana just gave the shelter-in-place order, along with various other measures.
Do you have a link for that? I can't find anything.

Right now I see CA, NY, NJ, OH, CT, IL, PA, DE, KY, LA, and MI.

Edit: Never mind - found it.

Add Wisconsin a d Massachusetts

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by pr0ner »

morlac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:41 pm
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:59 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:11 pm
Indiana just gave the shelter-in-place order, along with various other measures.
Do you have a link for that? I can't find anything.

Right now I see CA, NY, NJ, OH, CT, IL, PA, DE, KY, LA, and MI.

Edit: Never mind - found it.

Add Wisconsin a d Massachusetts
Maryland is almost there (all non-essential businesses close at 5 this evening).

Will be curious to see what Northam says in VA in a few minutes.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Skinypupy »

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

gameoverman wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:38 pm
Kraken wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:08 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:40 am
MA just joined the list of shelter-in-place states. Gov announced it will last until at least 4/7.
Crap. Well, from this list of things that can still open, it doesn't look like very much changes.
I think the idea of issuing a 'shelter in place' order is to stress that no unnecessary trips outside should be made. It's a psychological thing, the government is saying this is really serious. It's different that saying "don't gather in large groups', because 'don't gather' implies it's fine to be out and about as long as you avoid crowds. People will interpret that as 'it's fine to be out and about'.
It prompted Wife to demand that we make a couple more supply runs today, because who knows how much harder they'll crack down, or when? We'll go into almost-quarantine tomorrow.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by YellowKing »

They just extended school closures through May 15 in NC. In addition, a long list of unessential businesses have been ordered to close, including hair salons. Which should be fun. We're all going to be walking around with some homemade chopped up haircuts this summer.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by pr0ner »

YellowKing wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 pm
They just extended school closures through May 15 in NC. In addition, a long list of unessential businesses have been ordered to close, including hair salons. Which should be fun. We're all going to be walking around with some homemade chopped up haircuts this summer.
Virginia closed all schools through the end of the school year and closed all non-essential businesses for at least 30 days.

I was just talking with a friend who said we may all look a little feral by the time things get back to normal.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Skinypupy »

Just talked to my brother (anesthesiologist in Nashville). Said that they've gone from 1 total case, to 3 confirmed and 11 suspected cases over the last two days.

He's fully preparing for the worst.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by morlac »

pr0ner wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:54 pm
morlac wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:41 pm
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:59 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:11 pm
Indiana just gave the shelter-in-place order, along with various other measures.
Do you have a link for that? I can't find anything.

Right now I see CA, NY, NJ, OH, CT, IL, PA, DE, KY, LA, and MI.

Edit: Never mind - found it.

Add Wisconsin a d Massachusetts
Maryland is almost there (all non-essential businesses close at 5 this evening).

Will be curious to see what Northam says in VA in a few minutes.
And now WV, the last state with a confirmed case. Shut down. not sure what Georgia is waiting for.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by ImLawBoy »

YellowKing wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 pm
They just extended school closures through May 15 in NC. In addition, a long list of unessential businesses have been ordered to close, including hair salons. Which should be fun. We're all going to be walking around with some homemade chopped up haircuts this summer.
Order your clippers now and get ready for some home grooming! My oldest desperately needs a haircut, so my wife ordered some clippers from Amazon. They'll probably take a while to arrive. Fortunately the twins and I all had haircuts not too long before all this started, so we'll be good for awhile. My wife will just grow out her hair.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Skinypupy »

Hair's not a big deal, as I've shaved my own head every week for the past 20 years anyways.

The beard is getting rather gnarly without a trim though. Might need to finally break down and learn how to do that myself. :lol:
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by YellowKing »

I had entertained thoughts of just growing my beard for as long as quarantine lasted. Kind of as an experiment and time tracking device. Hell, let the hair go too.

Ultimately, however, my wife has to live with me. If I was single, I'd totally go full caveman.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Might want to invest in manual clippers so you can use them when the power grid fails. Well until someone shoots you for them.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

Skinypupy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:55 pm
Olympics are postponed.
Just for clarity, that is one board member's opinion based on a statement the board put out on Sunday and what he knows. There still hasn't been an official statement from the board. He is an incredibly important and influential member, though, so it's likely what he said will happen.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by ImLawBoy »

YellowKing wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:54 pm
I had entertained thoughts of just growing my beard for as long as quarantine lasted. Kind of as an experiment and time tracking device. Hell, let the hair go too.

Ultimately, however, my wife has to live with me. If I was single, I'd totally go full caveman.
My last day shaving was Thursday, March 12. I did go into the office that Friday, but I usually don't shave on Fridays. Since I generally don't shave when I don't go into the office (barring something like a wedding or party), I'm just keeping up with my standard practice. We'll see how long I actually take this - it's quite itchy!
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote:
Skinypupy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:55 pm
Olympics are postponed.
Just for clarity, that is one board member's opinion based on a statement the board put out on Sunday and what he knows. There still hasn't been an official statement from the board. He is an incredibly important and influential member, though, so it's likely what he said will happen.
We've also had multiple countries pull out today, so it's as good as done.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Local news interviewed the man who was the first and I think so far only case in Hamilton county. He looked to be in his mid to late 20s. He seemed to be doing great. No cough and nothing by now. He said he started feeling bad after a trip to Disney World. He then went to two different doctors. Both tested him for strep and flu and were all negative. He asked if it could be covid 19 and both told him they didn't think so. He said one doctor said she didn't think it was covid 19 and felt like this was a waste of a test but did it anyways. There were only 4 test kits around. But 5 days later the results showed that it was covid 19 after all.

That doctor sounds stupid and like an asshole telling him that. thats what tests are for..to rule out stuff and or tell you what you have. Its why they are called tests. Dumbass doctor.

I mean if anything those with clear covid 19 symptoms should be the ones not tested right? The ones who test negative for everything else should get the test done on them.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

Paingod wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:45 am
Cross-posted from R&P Pictures...

One of my kids' teachers sent this to him. My wife has it printed and pinned over her desk to help her cope.
Enlarge Image
A big part of the problem is the mistaken premise that people not in the office have all day to deal with this. Working from Home /= Day off.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

The Surgeon General is asking that people donate blood
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by mori »

My job is considered essential so I will still be working, albeit reduced hours, regardless of shelter in place orders. Looking at activity in my neighborhood, I might be the only one still working.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’
LATimes.com wrote:Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.

Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. In his view, the fact that new cases were being identified at a slower rate was more telling than the number of new cases itself. It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted.

Think of the outbreak as a car racing down an open highway, he said. Although the car was still gaining speed, it’s not accelerating as rapidly as before.

“This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.

Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.

This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.

Now Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.

He analyzed data from 78 countries that reported more than 50 new cases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery” in many of them. He’s not focusing on the total number of cases in a country, but on the number of new cases identified every day — and especially on the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.

“Numbers are still noisy but there are clear signs of slowed growth.”
I think the following professor of infectious disease and public health medicine at UCLA also makes a valid observation:
CBS8.com wrote:SAN DIEGO — Governor Gavin Newsom estimates some 25 million Californians could get infected with COVOD-19 in a worst-case scenario.

Some public health experts are questioning that estimate based on numbers from other countries.

Newsom’s order relies on data that estimates 56 percent of Californians could be infected with COVID-19 over the next 8 weeks.

“In California, we've been working with those numbers as a nation state with 40 million strong. We've been organized around an attack rate, as we refer to it, of about 56 percent. The virus will impact about 56 percent of us. You do the math in the state of California and that's a particularly large number,” Newsom said during his announcement of the stay-at-home order.

The governor also is predicting a shortage of some 10,000 hospital beds statewide.

But not everybody agrees with the governor's math.

“My assessment, based on the epidemiology in the other countries, is we'll be able to handle the capacity,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor in infectious disease and public health medicine at UCLA.

“Our current approach of using a sledgehammer and this national shutdown is not very wise. It's not a sound epidemiological approach to controlling infectious diseases,” Klausner said.

He points out that in Italy – one of the countries hardest hit by the virus – there only are about 47,000 confirmed cases with a population of 60 million people.

“This is not influenza. Influenza is readily spread. It can be airborne; 20 to 30 to 40 percent of people across countries will get infected. We haven't seen that in China, in Japan, in South Korea. Even in Italy, cases are concentrated in the north. So, there are other factors that are containing these epidemics that have nothing to do with our control measures,” he said.
"Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions. There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters." -- Daniel Webster

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mori
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by mori »

I guess a coworker jumped into his car over the weekend and drove to Los Angeles to get his daughter and drive her back home Vanishing Point style. Did not sound like prudent decision making.

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Daehawk
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.
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