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[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by TheMix »

My sister is a nurse (of some kind). And as my niece's school project, she is helping her do some videos on how to make your own hand sanitizer. I can dig up the links if anyone is interested. (I'm also sure that it's not tough to find recipes online. But my niece is obnoxiously adorable. I wish I was a 10th as photogenic.)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

More like the VA hasn't been able to kill him yet...be afraid.

Aww shit it just struck me. If Tom Hanks is still doing great I should Tweet and ask him if he has 'cough due to cold'.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Madmarcus »

Max Peck wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am
There has been talk of using that sort of cellphone data to verify that people are complying with self-quarantine/distancing orders, but I don't know if any jurisdiction anywhere has actually gone ahead with it yet.
South Korea is doing it. Which has pissed off some of my co-workers.

The school let them leave Korea after we started teaching virtually. Since the official start date for Korean public schools is April 6th the people who left were asked to come back to Korea 15 days early to quarantine. Depending on when they came back some of them have to use an app that tracks their location via GPS to tell if they are violating their quarantine (ie leaving their apartment). It seems a little harsh but it is also what is done if you have been in contact with a know COVID-19 case and is part of why Korea has some level of success containing the disease.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

Victoria Raverna wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:11 am
ANyone read this?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20043679v1
Nope. Not yet at least.
To be fair though, I would need to, to find out if I did.
So maybe I have?

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

Ok, this article about the waves of Spanish Flu is scary when taken in context today https://www.history.com/news/spanish-fl ... resurgence
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

Madmarcus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 am
Max Peck wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am
There has been talk of using that sort of cellphone data to verify that people are complying with self-quarantine/distancing orders, but I don't know if any jurisdiction anywhere has actually gone ahead with it yet.
South Korea is doing it. Which has pissed off some of my co-workers.

The school let them leave Korea after we started teaching virtually. Since the official start date for Korean public schools is April 6th the people who left were asked to come back to Korea 15 days early to quarantine. Depending on when they came back some of them have to use an app that tracks their location via GPS to tell if they are violating their quarantine (ie leaving their apartment). It seems a little harsh but it is also what is done if you have been in contact with a know COVID-19 case and is part of why Korea has some level of success containing the disease.
Can't they just leave their phone home? Mine often doesn't leave my office for days at a time. Doesn't mean I'm there.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Max Peck »

That's what I was thinking. On the face of it, cellphone location data seems like it would be more useful for tracking trends (e.g. are people congregating at particular locations in spite of the distancing orders) than it would be for tracking targeted individuals (e.g. Brosef McFratbrat who just returned from Ft Lauderdale) who know that you're using it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:23 am
Madmarcus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 am
Max Peck wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am
There has been talk of using that sort of cellphone data to verify that people are complying with self-quarantine/distancing orders, but I don't know if any jurisdiction anywhere has actually gone ahead with it yet.
South Korea is doing it. Which has pissed off some of my co-workers.

The school let them leave Korea after we started teaching virtually. Since the official start date for Korean public schools is April 6th the people who left were asked to come back to Korea 15 days early to quarantine. Depending on when they came back some of them have to use an app that tracks their location via GPS to tell if they are violating their quarantine (ie leaving their apartment). It seems a little harsh but it is also what is done if you have been in contact with a know COVID-19 case and is part of why Korea has some level of success containing the disease.
Can't they just leave their phone home? Mine often doesn't leave my office for days at a time. Doesn't mean I'm there.
The usage pattern is going to change unless you can figure out a way to make it browse out to OO remotely!

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:40 am
Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:23 am
Madmarcus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 am
Max Peck wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am
There has been talk of using that sort of cellphone data to verify that people are complying with self-quarantine/distancing orders, but I don't know if any jurisdiction anywhere has actually gone ahead with it yet.
South Korea is doing it. Which has pissed off some of my co-workers.

The school let them leave Korea after we started teaching virtually. Since the official start date for Korean public schools is April 6th the people who left were asked to come back to Korea 15 days early to quarantine. Depending on when they came back some of them have to use an app that tracks their location via GPS to tell if they are violating their quarantine (ie leaving their apartment). It seems a little harsh but it is also what is done if you have been in contact with a know COVID-19 case and is part of why Korea has some level of success containing the disease.
Can't they just leave their phone home? Mine often doesn't leave my office for days at a time. Doesn't mean I'm there.
The usage pattern is going to change unless you can figure out a way to make it browse out to OO remotely!
I don't use my phone for email and only rarely for internet. It's usually sitting on my desk, plugged in and fully charged, doing nothing. SK authorities would probably conclude that I died. :)

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by $iljanus »

Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:00 am
malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:40 am
Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:23 am
Madmarcus wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 am
Max Peck wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:58 am
There has been talk of using that sort of cellphone data to verify that people are complying with self-quarantine/distancing orders, but I don't know if any jurisdiction anywhere has actually gone ahead with it yet.
South Korea is doing it. Which has pissed off some of my co-workers.

The school let them leave Korea after we started teaching virtually. Since the official start date for Korean public schools is April 6th the people who left were asked to come back to Korea 15 days early to quarantine. Depending on when they came back some of them have to use an app that tracks their location via GPS to tell if they are violating their quarantine (ie leaving their apartment). It seems a little harsh but it is also what is done if you have been in contact with a know COVID-19 case and is part of why Korea has some level of success containing the disease.
Can't they just leave their phone home? Mine often doesn't leave my office for days at a time. Doesn't mean I'm there.
The usage pattern is going to change unless you can figure out a way to make it browse out to OO remotely!
I don't use my phone for email and only rarely for internet. It's usually sitting on my desk, plugged in and fully charged, doing nothing. SK authorities would probably conclude that I died. :)
Or you're a model citizen because you haven't moved from your house!
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

So Abbott Labs announced they created a test that provides results in 5 minutes. Currently, one of my wife's coworkers and a patient have been tested in the last day or so and are being told results will be provided in 5 days...not very helpful when trying to prevent a mass outbreak in a nursing home.

My wife is paranoid that she will bring it home and give it to me (and I am in the demographic for elevate death risk). She mentioned maybe I should set up the tent for her. She is equally concerned that my going to work (which my employer demands) and doing the shopping is making me too socially promiscuous and could make her a vector to introduce the virus to her work place. And today she had to threaten to walk off the job when it was suggested she would be the only nurse to work tomorrow night, servicing 60 patients. They found another (and 30 is still too damn many).

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Jeff V wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:39 pm
So Abbott Labs announced they created a test that provides results in 5 minutes. Currently, one of my wife's coworkers and a patient have been tested in the last day or so and are being told results will be provided in 5 days...not very helpful when trying to prevent a mass outbreak in a nursing home.

My wife is paranoid that she will bring it home and give it to me (and I am in the demographic for elevate death risk). She mentioned maybe I should set up the tent for her. She is equally concerned that my going to work (which my employer demands) and doing the shopping is making me too socially promiscuous and could make her a vector to introduce the virus to her work place. And today she had to threaten to walk off the job when it was suggested she would be the only nurse to work tomorrow night, servicing 60 patients. They found another (and 30 is still too damn many).
If I was in your position I'd reassure her, by telling her it's too late to worry about avoiding infection now. If she was going to get it from work she already did, and she passed it to you. If you were going to get it from being out and about, that's already happened and you already passed it to her and she passed it to them.

Only after both of you have been tested and the results are negative would I think infection for either of you is still avoidable. If neither of you are sick then that's a good sign. It means even if both of you are infected you're the lucky ones who probably won't be hit hard by it.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

Not sure how you come to these conclusions.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

He's been under the assumption since the beginning that it is far more widespread and arrived earlier than anyone knows. From that viewpoint, it makes sense.

I just don't agree with that viewpoint.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Saw where a baby died today.

Also that place is open here in town charging $200 a test no doctors referral needed. Rip off. Also dumb people lining up.....So what if you do or dont have some symptoms. One guy said he's been coughing for two weeks Two weeks! Ive been coughing for 2 months..its called allergies. Besides theres nothing you can do. They wont let you go to the hospital. There is no cure. If you have some symptoms theres no treatment. If you are staying home you are already doing all you can. Why go out and throw $200 to the wind?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Madmarcus »

Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:23 am
Can't they just leave their phone home? Mine often doesn't leave my office for days at a time. Doesn't mean I'm there.
Sure. That even works for the Americans. Many South Korean would have problems with it as they use their phone as transit and debit card. There is also at least the possibility of getting random calls that lead to a police visit if you don't answer.

It would help if there was one clear place to go to find the rules. Seemingly even people who speak fluent Korean are having trouble finding out if the quarantine is stay in your apartment or allows you to go out to local stores to get groceries. Overall the general feeling is that they aren't really following the data that much as long as you check in twice a day as required but if you become sick or someone else becomes sick and can trace the contact back to you they will pull the data use it against you.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Unagi wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:49 pm
Not sure how you come to these conclusions.
My reasons are we know the virus has been around for a couple of months now, we know it traveled around the world in that time, we know everyone from average citizens to world famous celebrities and even leaders of countries have been infected in that time, and we know we haven't tested anything but a small percentage of the population. What this means to me is that if you work in a high risk job then you have already been exposed to it.

An example, recently here in LA county they announced a cop tested positive for the virus. I'm supposed to believe that the cop has not passed that virus on to other people? How does that make sense? Everyone who has interacted with that cop in the last month should be considered infected until proven otherwise. Not only that, but that cop got it from someone else. That person didn't just infect that one cop. That person was infecting, and probably still is infecting, everyone THEY come in contact with.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by dbt1949 »

I don't know why but I was really surprised to find out how many US citizens were traveling all over the world. Tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands.
No wonder corona virus is having a field day with us.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by wonderpug »

dbt1949 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:27 pm
I don't know why but I was really surprised to find out how many US citizens were traveling all over the world. Tens of thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands.
No wonder corona virus is having a field day with us.
So you’re saying we should build a wall to our south and send troops to our north? We’ll be impregnable to worldwide travelers!

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by dbt1949 »

But they're coming by sea and air too!
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by wonderpug »

dbt1949 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:52 pm
But they're coming by sea and air too!
We'll make the wall higher then!

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by dbt1949 »

As tall as Trump's ego!
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Italy 10,000+ dead...... 1500+ recovered........Friday 919 people died.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

gameoverman wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:39 pm
Unagi wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:49 pm
Not sure how you come to these conclusions.
My reasons are we know the virus has been around for a couple of months now, we know it traveled around the world in that time, we know everyone from average citizens to world famous celebrities and even leaders of countries have been infected in that time, and we know we haven't tested anything but a small percentage of the population. What this means to me is that if you work in a high risk job then you have already been exposed to it.

An example, recently here in LA county they announced a cop tested positive for the virus. I'm supposed to believe that the cop has not passed that virus on to other people? How does that make sense? Everyone who has interacted with that cop in the last month should be considered infected until proven otherwise. Not only that, but that cop got it from someone else. That person didn't just infect that one cop. That person was infecting, and probably still is infecting, everyone THEY come in contact with.
None of that has any basis in science.

In SC, or positive test rate is about 10%. If half the population had it, the positive rate would be much higher.

As for the cop, the incubation time is around two weeks. Suspecting people from a month ago is fear mongering. The current belief is that ther transmission rate is between 2 and 3. There can certainly be super spreaders, but they aren't the norm.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

gameoverman wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:39 pm
Unagi wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:49 pm
Not sure how you come to these conclusions.
My reasons are we know the virus has been around for a couple of months now, we know it traveled around the world in that time, we know everyone from average citizens to world famous celebrities and even leaders of countries have been infected in that time, and we know we haven't tested anything but a small percentage of the population. What this means to me is that if you work in a high risk job then you have already been exposed to it.

An example, recently here in LA county they announced a cop tested positive for the virus. I'm supposed to believe that the cop has not passed that virus on to other people? How does that make sense? Everyone who has interacted with that cop in the last month should be considered infected until proven otherwise. Not only that, but that cop got it from someone else. That person didn't just infect that one cop. That person was infecting, and probably still is infecting, everyone THEY come in contact with.
I don't think transmission is as guaranteed and immediate as you describe, and there in lies the value of social distancing. If what you are saying is true - then it would be true that there is no value to any of the social distancing, and frankly, the people who make a career out of knowing about this stuff (epidemiologists) tell us it's the best thing we have.

/shrug ?

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

I admit I may been wrong on this, I'm certainly no expert. I hope I'm wrong, since fewer people will die if I am. Flattening the curve efforts could still have value even if I'm right, because while it may be too late to prevent the upcoming overwhelming surge in patients, it's not too late to prevent later surges.

There are 300 million+ people in this country. I think it's highly optimistic to hope that we'll get one big wave of infections and that's it. I think it's going to be like waves on the beach. One comes in, washes over everything, then is gone. Then another one comes in, repeat, keep repeating until the majority have been infected. That's where flattening the curve would help.

As far as the time frame on the cop, don't assume people get infected then either get sick or don't in two weeks. What happens if I'm infected, I start to get a bit sick, I fight it off and get better, then someone infects me again? Over the course of time I may wind up sick after all, and it might take more than two weeks. All that time I could be passing the virus on.

The amount of people I could pass it to is an average isn't it? In other words, all things being equal, maybe I could be expected to pass it to 2 or 3 people. But what if my job is a people oriented job? What if I spend 8 hours a day working in close proximity to many, many people? Still just passing it to 2 or 3?

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

For some reason hearing the phrase 'social distancing' is already grating on my one nerve.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Blackhawk »

I do think that if this thing (isolation/distancing) goes on long-term, people will start getting sloppy with it. They'll become complacent.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

I think I had it in November in Bogota, and I think my mother had it in January(probably from me). I think it's been around at least since then. I think we'll find the mortality rate is much lower(unless most of the flu deaths were actually Covid-19) because many more people have had it than we know about. I think our herd is gonna achieve immunity faster than we think. I just hope it doesn't mutate like the Spanish Flu did for a second more deadly wave. I hope Wuhan wasn't the start of that second wave.

Wash your hands, and don't touch your face like it's a religion. :idea:

Thoughts of an uneducated peon, and subject to change at any moment. lol

Good news, the experts don't expect it to evolve into something deadlier https://www.yahoo.com/news/8-strains-co ... 38255.html
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

A projection from IHME shows that US may hit peak COVID-19 in 2 weeks, assuming we KEEP our social distancing measures. And we're looking about 90000 deaths here in the US, if ventilators are not ready by then, as the ICUs are overwhelmed.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

The short of it is we don't have enough beds, staff, or even ventilators, in the ICU's around the country. And we have two weeks to get ready.

And that's just the "median" case. WORST case? We may be looking at 5000 deaths A DAY
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

LA county is at 1818 confirmed cases, 32 dead. I'd be shocked if that's anywhere near peak numbers. That's a 415% increase from a week ago, according to a local news outlet. Even if that increase continues I don't think we'll peak in two weeks, we'll know soon enough one way or the other.

edit: This link illustrates my thinking on the spread and why I think far more people have had it than most people realize. These 'cycles' have been going on since early January, since it was towards the end of January that the virus was confirmed in other countries. How many cycles could be achieved from ~Jan 10-March 10? A shiat ton in my opinion.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Alefroth »

John Prine has it and is intubated in critical condition.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Plácido Domingo has it too but is doing fine in the hospital.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

Alefroth wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:52 pm
John Prine has it and is intubated in critical condition.
Just came to share this news.
Massive bummer.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Be like Kylo Ren

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YellowKing
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by YellowKing »

Blackhawk wrote:I do think that if this thing (isolation/distancing) goes on long-term, people will start getting sloppy with it. They'll become complacent.
I'm already seeing it. Over the weekend I witnessed two large backyard parties in my neighborhood.

I think the biggest weak spot is people thinking, "These are my friends, so they're safe to hang out with." When you really need to think about it like people think about sexual partners. You're not partying with just your friends, but every stranger they came into contact with over the past week.

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Smoove_B
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

The police in NJ have been busting parties the last few days, issuing summonses to the organizers and publishing the information in the local news.

Regarding the apparent trend of neighbors hanging out:
Groups of neighborhood dads or moms spread out in a circle, drinking beer or wine in the street. A gaggle of teenagers sitting atop their parked cars, hanging out apart from each other. A pair of fishermen standing more than six feet apart in a shallow river.

...

Dr. Maria Ciminelli, the president of the New Jersey Academy of Family Physicians and director of the CentraState Family Medicine Residency Program, said guidelines for people to remain six feet apart are meant only for those essential trips outside the home. Any extended, unnecessary contact with people, even six feet apart, violates the spirit of the precautions.

“If you’re going to practice intense social distancing, it really means avoiding or limiting contact with people outside of your family, and really staying home most of the time, unless you really need to go out,” Ciminelli said. “But any prolonged kind of engagement outside is really still not social distancing, having that prolonged contact with people that are not in your family."

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Kraken
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

This doctor comes off as a bit of a douche and his video is long, but if you aren't frightened already, you need to hear his message.


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Blackhawk
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Blackhawk »

YellowKing wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:00 pm
Blackhawk wrote:I do think that if this thing (isolation/distancing) goes on long-term, people will start getting sloppy with it. They'll become complacent.
I'm already seeing it. Over the weekend I witnessed two large backyard parties in my neighborhood.
I was thinking more about huge numbers of people just becoming complacent rather than blatantly disregarding it. The thought is more that people who are genuinely trying will stop paying attention as closely once it becomes routine rather than novelty. More unaware face touching, more lazy hand washing, more standing just a bit too close, more rationalizing unnecessary trips.
________________________________________
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