Super Bowl LII

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:48 am

RunningMn9 wrote:I'll tell you what I can't figure out - how did the Broncos only open as a 1 point favorite? What did Vegas know that I don't?

Against the Raiders? Probably that the Raiders are a good team?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:49 am

RunningMn9 wrote:I'll tell you what I can't figure out - how did the Broncos only open as a 1 point favorite? What did Vegas know that I don't?

Against the Cowboys? Do you think they should have been favored by more?

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:50 am

They opened as a 1 point favorite over the Bills. Now do you see my surprise?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:52 am

RunningMn9 wrote:They opened as a 1 point favorite over the Bills. Now do you see my surprise?

Yes, yes I do.

I would guess that the narrow favorite reflected some uncertainty (now removed) over future Hall of Famer "Touchdown" Trevor Semian.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:53 am

RunningMn9 wrote:They opened as a 1 point favorite over the Bills. Now do you see my surprise?

Oh. Wow. Yeah. I mean, the Bills defense is good, but that offense against the Broncos defense....

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:59 am

Right, last I checked, it was still only 2.5 points - which is still ridiculous. Over a 40+ year history of watching the NFL and being aware of point spreads, I've learned that generally, when Vegas sets a line somewhere that is wildly outside of expectations, something is up, and they know some things that we don't.

I would have expected opening around a 7-point favorite, and I think DEN will easily cover. I would have said that Shady might have an easier time with Denver's D as I think that CAR's front seven is better, but then they curb-stomped Elliot. And so I'm left assuming that the Bills will get shut out.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:08 am

RunningMn9 wrote:Right, last I checked, it was still only 2.5 points - which is still ridiculous. Over a 40+ year history of watching the NFL and being aware of point spreads, I've learned that generally, when Vegas sets a line somewhere that is wildly outside of expectations, something is up, and they know some things that we don't.

I would have expected opening around a 7-point favorite, and I think DEN will easily cover. I would have said that Shady might have an easier time with Denver's D as I think that CAR's front seven is better, but then they curb-stomped Elliot. And so I'm left assuming that the Bills will get shut out.

Semian would be my best guess, combined with the good Bills defense. Semian's track record out of college was (as I understand it) less than stellar, so he wasn't projected to be a star. So a Bills win isn't entirely out of the question, if the Bills defense stomps Semian and he has a horrendous game with multiple turnovers, and the Bills offense can manage at least mediocrity.

Although Semian had good first couple games, at least, so... maybe not?

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:30 am

I remember learning this lesson back in Week 12 of the 1990 season. The 9-1 Bills were riding an 8-game winning streak, heading into a Monday Night game against the 5-5 Houston Oilers. The average margin of victory in those 8 wins was 19 points. At the time, I was legitimately offended that the Oilers were favored to win the game. In the previous three games, the Bills outscored their opponents 101 - 14 (including two shutouts). The underdog? Against a 0.500 opponent? How dare they not give the Bills respect?!

The Oilers went into the game as a 3-point home favorite. The Oilers won the game, 27 - 24.

DD* · Post by DD* » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:58 am

Drink up, boys!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:10 pm

DD* wrote:

Drink up, boys!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm just happy to seemingly have a product worth watching. This makes two years in a row. OtOH, if we somehow beat Atlanta, I'll take me some of that and dream of the idea of a home playoff game and even a playoff win...

I think had Stafford not hurt his hand last year, we would have seen both the voids of a home playoff game and a playoff win fulfilled, so why not have that as an outside shot this year? Let's assume they split with GB and the Viks and sweep Chicago. 4-4 for the rest of the season gets them in. Bengals, Browns, and Saints, and then one more...

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:30 pm

Lets play if I was the Niners coach...

Yes not a fun game to play....

We all know what Hoyer is.... A below average QB. If he doesn't show any improvement in the next two weeks, I'd bench him and put in Beardford. Our rookie QB who shown some promise in the preseason. That way we get a look on how he is. Next year's draft is heavy in QB's so now is the time to evaluate what you have now. We know what Hoyer is. He's not going to be the QB next year. Free Agent QB's price is going to skyrocket no thanks to Carr and Stafford signing the crazy contracts. So I'm not sure going for a FA QB is worth it when we have so many holes to fill in.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:38 pm

naednek wrote:Lets play if I was the Niners coach...

Yes not a fun game to play....

We all know what Hoyer is.... A below average QB. If he doesn't show any improvement in the next two weeks, I'd bench him and put in Beardford. Our rookie QB who shown some promise in the preseason. That way we get a look on how he is. Next year's draft is heavy in QB's so now is the time to evaluate what you have now. We know what Hoyer is. He's not going to be the QB next year. Free Agent QB's price is going to skyrocket no thanks to Carr and Stafford signing the crazy contracts. So I'm not sure going for a FA QB is worth it when we have so many holes to fill in.

The Niners aren't going to go anywhere this year, right? And if anything they're better off losing to get a high draft pick. Given that, seems like the best course is to play Hoyer for most of the year rather than rushing the rookie. Probably play the rookie a few games towards the end of the year to get some real game experience, but otherwise focus on training him and getting him ready.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:50 pm

naednek wrote:Free Agent QB's price is going to skyrocket no thanks to Carr and Stafford signing the crazy contracts.

You mean Cousins and Luck. They set the bar before a fairly large cap increase. The going rate for a QB is going to be interesting. Play a rookie contract and spread the wealth before they learn how to lead the offense? Keep a serviceable QB and take a huge hit on spreading the wealth?

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:09 pm

LordMortis wrote:
naednek wrote:Free Agent QB's price is going to skyrocket no thanks to Carr and Stafford signing the crazy contracts.

You mean Cousins and Luck. They set the bar before a fairly large cap increase. The going rate for a QB is going to be interesting. Play a rookie contract and spread the wealth before they learn how to lead the offense? Keep a serviceable QB and take a huge hit on spreading the wealth?

I don't know about Luck, but Cousins signed a franchise tag... Those are always high. Carr and Stafford signed extensions that are so high it will dictate similar QB's salaries for years to come.

Biyobi · Post by **Biyobi** » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:42 pm

DD* wrote:

Drink up, boys!

Best drink it now. It gets more bitter as time goes on.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:58 am

Thursday night's Rams-49ers game may be the toughest sell in the history of Levi's Stadium.
As of Wednesday, resale tickets were being offered on StubHub for as low as $14 to see the team host the Los Angeles Rams at 7 p.m.

That price is just cheaper than buying a pair of $7.50 pretzels through the Levi's Stadium app and comparable to the price of a beer and a hot dog at the the three-year-old arena. According to the team's seat licensing map, the cheapest original face value for any seat is $85.

Ticket sale aggregator TicketIQ listed a slightly higher minimum price from their partners at $17, still a bargain compared to all previous games at the stadium.

Still, the Thursday night game appears to be the biggest bargain in the history of the stadium, especially considering how likely the 49ers are to win. The Rams are the only opponent the team has managed to beat at home since the start of 2016 (and they've done it twice).

To put that in perspective, the band Coldplay has taken the stage as frequently at Levi's over that time period as the 49ers have won there. If the team loses Thursday, Chris Martin and company will take the lead when they host a concert on Oct. 4.

http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/49 ... 215863.php

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:06 am

rshetts2 wrote:Well, it looks like people got their closure. Aaron Hernandez apparently committed suicide in his cell yesterday. http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/19/us/aaron- ... z-suicide/

Advanced stages of CTE found in Aaron Hernandez's brain

Former New England Patriots star Aaron Hernandez had a severe case of the degenerative brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy, researchers said on Thursday. His lawyer announced a lawsuit against the NFL and the team for hiding the true dangers of the sport.

Dr. Ann McKee, the director of the CTE Center at Boston University, said Hernandez had stage 3 (out of 4) of the disease, which can cause violent mood swings, depression and other cognitive disorders.

"We're told it was the most severe case they had ever seen for someone of Aaron's age," attorney Jose Baez said.

naednek · Post by **naednek** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:38 am

Offensive Pass Interference my ass. But I'm ok with that loss. Niners stuck with it. They just need to stop making the mistakes.

That was a fun exciting game. People should stop listening to these analysts.... It was classic football.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:09 am

naednek wrote:Offensive Pass Interference my ass.

I wish they had shown another angle on the broadcast. It didn't look like much on the one replay they showed, but you could only see the back of the defender.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 1:01 pm

NFL Films and Katie Nolan followed 17 Hall of Famers to Israel. Includes Joe Montana, Cris Carter, Aeneas Williams, and Jim Brown.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:24 am

I wonder how the game would have gone if the Ravens' starters had been able to make the trip to London. I can only assume the guys I'm watching were picked up off the streets and are still learning the game.

That last Flacco INT (his second) was just poor all around.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:51 am

And a great fake punt by JAC! The Ravens are getting embarassed.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:19 pm

Like I said, sometimes Vegas knows something. I’m posting this while it’s still 10-10. I’m still expecting DEN to cruise. Bills refuse to cover Emmanuel Sanders

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:30 pm

The end of the half in Chicago is bonkers.

How is it not a safety?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:38 pm

Houston's front four are GOOD. Their secondary is a bit handsy.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:51 pm

msteelers wrote:The end of the half in Chicago is bonkers.

How is it not a safety?

Because the Pitt dude batted the ball out of the end zone. That's a penalty.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:56 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
msteelers wrote:The end of the half in Chicago is bonkers.

How is it not a safety?
Because the Pitt dude batted the ball out of the end zone. That's a penalty.

Yeah, I wasn't taking into account that the Steelers at that point were on defense. I thought they were still considered to be on offense.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:59 pm

msteelers wrote:The end of the half in Chicago is bonkers.

How is it not a safety?

A bigger question is why is that Bears player still in uniform? Stopping 5 yards short of the goal line should be a career-ending ploy.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:40 pm

Love that QB play of the Broncos!!!

And I'm rooting for the Lions for you guys who are fans, I like comeback kids!

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:45 pm

wrong forum

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:06 pm

RunningMn9 wrote:Like I said, sometimes Vegas knows something. I’m posting this while it’s still 10-10. I’m still expecting DEN to cruise. Bills refuse to cover Emmanuel Sanders

Vegas knows all!

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:24 pm

Lorini wrote:And I'm rooting for the Lions for you guys who are fans, I like comeback kids!

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:25 pm

Detroit just got screwed.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:30 pm

One of my minions was in Vegas a few days ago. He told us he put some money on the Bears (+7 vs Pittsburgh). We had a good laugh over it.

I just texted him to ask how much he won.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:30 pm

Oh Lions.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:35 pm

Seriously, that was a ref fuck up of epic proportions. 1) I can't see how they could reverse the call and call him down and 2) then running off 10 seconds to end the game? I know that's the rule but it's complete crap. If the refs had just called it down to begin with, Detroit could have gotten in another play.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:39 pm

The day started with players protesting on the field. In Detroit it should've ended that way.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:50 pm

I feel the refs screwed up by missing a few holding calls on the Bears final drive. But I take some comfort in knowing the Lions were absolutely robbed of a win. The TD looked good to me (only saw the replay once though), and that rule is just cruel.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:59 pm

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Seriously, that was a ref fuck up of epic proportions. 1) I can't see how they could reverse the call and call him down and 2) then running off 10 seconds to end the game? I know that's the rule but it's complete crap. If the refs had just called it down to begin with, Detroit could have gotten in another play.

It’s not complete crap. It’s just the rules, because if he is down by contact, the clock would have been running. With 8 seconds, if the clock was running it’s unlikely they get lined up for another play. Not impossible, but unlikely.

That said, I saw his knee down with ball at half yard line - where was the contact though? I didn’t see anyone touch him on the angle I saw.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:00 pm

Also, the 15yd unsportsmanlike conduct on Von Miller. That’s the most embarrassing penalty I’ve ever seen, and it cost them the game.