Super Bowl LII

[RunningMn9]

Bortles has been playing really well in the playoffs. Reminds me of the Hoss in '91.

Bortles was atrocious in the Buffalo game. Absolutely atrocious.

[El Guapo]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

[stessier]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

[LordMortis]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

Making it all that much more embarrassing if they lose, I guess. I assume they've learned from the Steelers mistakes. Though, I don't think the Steelers had a problem getting past the Jags defense, did they?

[Isgrimnur]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

He's no Jeff Hostetler.

[Kurth]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

[LordMortis]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

Not sure about beating the Vikings. That could essentially be a home game by a team with a scary good defense and a heretofore untested QB who has found his confidence. It will be interesting to see what that line will be.

[El Guapo]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

IF Brady's hand injury is serious, then that's definitely a game-changer. Maybe they can borrow Garappalo back for a game - it would be the neighborly thing for the 49ers to do.

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

[Isgrimnur]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

IF Brady's hand injury is serious, then that's definitely a game-changer. Maybe they can borrow Garappalo back for a game - it would be the neighborly thing for the 49ers to do.

You'll take Brian Hoyer and like it.

[stessier]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

IF Brady's hand injury is serious, then that's definitely a game-changer. Maybe they can borrow Garappalo back for a game - it would be the neighborly thing for the 49ers to do.

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

I don't know why you don't think this game is even closer. The Pats played the Steelers to a draw (basically) and the Jaguars did as well (basically). The Jaguars have a very good chance in this game. I'm personally hoping for Jaguars that played the Bills, but I doubt we'll be that fortunate. They have no pressure and sure don't seem scared by the stage. This is going to be a very close game.

[msteelers]

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

I think Pats-Jags will be interesting. I don’t think the Pats offense is anywhere near as talented as the Steelers, so I expect the Jags defense to go back to being very stingy. But the Pats defense is better than the Steelers defense, so no way the Jags get close to 30 points, let alone 45.

I think we’ll know how this game goes after the first few drives. If the Jags get pressure on Brady and force a couple of punts, look out. If the Pats score a TD on either of their first two drives, game over.

[Kelric]

QBs who have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs since Belichick & Brady started in the '01 playoffs:

Peyton Manning ('06, '13, '15)
Joe Flacco ('09, '12)
Eli Manning ('07, '11)
Mark Sanchez ('10)
Jake Plummer ('05)

History is not on Bortles' side, but on any given sunday....

[gameoverman]

From that 'easiest path' article:
Given who they’ve played, it would have been much more surprising for New England to not make the Super Bowl than to return to it for a third time in four seasons.

His reasoning is flawed in my opinion because in any season that has Brady and Gronk playing together, how can anyone be surprised if they make it to the Super Bowl regardless of the quality of their opponents? Part of being as successful as they've been is it's assumed they will be in the mix, barring a catastrophic injury to their key players. In short, even if KC and Pitt won their games it would still come down to someone needing to beat the Patriots. It's like talking about a fighter and saying his upcoming foe is not that good, implying that he has it easy this year. It ignores that relative to him, none of his foes in those previous years were that good either. Not sucking as much does not equal not sucking at all.

[stessier]

From that 'easiest path' article:
Given who they’ve played, it would have been much more surprising for New England to not make the Super Bowl than to return to it for a third time in four seasons.

His reasoning is flawed in my opinion because in any season that has Brady and Gronk playing together, how can anyone be surprised if they make it to the Super Bowl regardless of the quality of their opponents? Part of being as successful as they've been is it's assumed they will be in the mix, barring a catastrophic injury to their key players. In short, even if KC and Pitt won their games it would still come down to someone needing to beat the Patriots. It's like talking about a fighter and saying his upcoming foe is not that good, implying that he has it easy this year. It ignores that relative to him, none of his foes in those previous years were that good either. Not sucking as much does not equal not sucking at all.

Their whole argument in based on ELO ratings and to even everything out, they used a league average ELO in place of the Pats rating to demonstrate that they still faced the easiest path where the path is defined as "the difference in ELO rating for each game" and easiest is defined as "the bigger the difference, the easier the path".

So even for a league average team, having to face the Titans and Jags would have been the easiest path in the last 27 years.

[LordMortis]

QBs who have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs since Belichick & Brady started in the '01 playoffs:

Peyton Manning ('06, '13, '15)
Joe Flacco ('09, '12)
Eli Manning ('07, '11)
Mark Sanchez ('10)
Jake Plummer ('05)

History is not on Bortles' side, but on any given sunday....

How many times have the Pats beat Bortles in the Playoffs? Heck, how many playoff games has Bortles ever lost?

[stessier]

How many times have the Pats beat Bortles in the Playoffs? Heck, how many playoff games has Bortles ever lost?

Zero to both questions of course - this is the first time he's ever been in the playoffs.

More importantly -

[Jaymann]

Where is the fretting about what a tough matchup the Jags are for New England?

Now we're seeing it. The Pats will win by double digits and beat the spread.

[El Guapo]

QBs who have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs since Belichick & Brady started in the '01 playoffs:

Peyton Manning ('06, '13, '15)
Joe Flacco ('09, '12)
Eli Manning ('07, '11)
Mark Sanchez ('10)
Jake Plummer ('05)

History is not on Bortles' side, but on any given sunday....

How many times have the Pats beat Bortles in the Playoffs? Heck, how many playoff games has Bortles ever lost?

edit: damn you stessier!

[LordMortis]

Now that's a statistic and one that only uses facts from the 2017 season.

[El Guapo]

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

I think Pats-Jags will be interesting. I don’t think the Pats offense is anywhere near as talented as the Steelers, so I expect the Jags defense to go back to being very stingy. But the Pats defense is better than the Steelers defense, so no way the Jags get close to 30 points, let alone 45.

I think we’ll know how this game goes after the first few drives. If the Jags get pressure on Brady and force a couple of punts, look out. If the Pats score a TD on either of their first two drives, game over.

FWIW the Patriots had the top ranked offense (by DVOA) this season.

Of course, they also had the 31st ranked defense (though it improved significantly as the year went on), and the Jaguars had the first ranked defense.

[El Guapo]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

IF Brady's hand injury is serious, then that's definitely a game-changer. Maybe they can borrow Garappalo back for a game - it would be the neighborly thing for the 49ers to do.

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

I don't know why you don't think this game is even closer. The Pats played the Steelers to a draw (basically) and the Jaguars did as well (basically). The Jaguars have a very good chance in this game. I'm personally hoping for Jaguars that played the Bills, but I doubt we'll be that fortunate. They have no pressure and sure don't seem scared by the stage. This is going to be a very close game.

I have a feeling.

LIke I said, the Jaguars could win - they do have a great defense, so given that they just need Bortles to be not terrible. It's just that he's usually very, very terrible.

[Kelric]

FWIW the Patriots had the top ranked offense (by DVOA) this season.

Of course, they also had the 31st ranked defense (though it improved significantly as the year went on), and the Jaguars had the first ranked defense.

Curious what the Pats D would be after week 6 - up to that point they had actually played some of the best offenses in the league. As of week 6

The parity this season does not extend to our offensive ratings. Kansas City and New England have offensive DVOA similar to what the best offenses usually have at this point, and Indianapolis and Cleveland resemble the typical worst offenses. But the parity does extend to the defensive ratings. For the second straight week, the Jacksonville Jaguars are sitting on top of the defensive DVOA ratings. But at -20.7% DVOA, the Jaguars have the lowest-rated No. 1 defense in DVOA history. (The previous record-holder was also Jacksonville, back in 1999.) The parity isn't quite as extreme on the other end, where the Patriots are still dead last in defensive DVOA. However, the Patriots have moved a lot closer to the league over the last two weeks, going from 30.9% defensive DVOA through Week 4 to 21.1% defensive DVOA through Week 6. Part of what's going on here is better play -- despite the close final score, the win over the Jets this week was New England's top single-game DVOA of the year -- and part of what's going on is the gradual increase in opponent adjustments. The Patriots defense looks even worse than it really has been because the Patriots have played the second-toughest schedule of opposing offenses in the league.

[Jeff V]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

[El Guapo]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

The point is that the Borltes and Sanchez's of the world *can* win in games like this. They just *usually* don't.

[Malificent]

The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History.

I do worry about the Jacksonville defense, though.

And Brady having to throw left handed. I can't believe Bortles is going to be a starting QB in the Super Bowl. It's a sad, sad day.

If only it were to be . . . it would be a glorious day!

But despite all your reverse-jinxing, the Pats will win. Then they will beat either the Eagles or the Vikings. Then we'll have to endure even more DYNASTY and GOAT crap. Almost makes you want to shotgun four beers and punch a horse in the face.

IF Brady's hand injury is serious, then that's definitely a game-changer. Maybe they can borrow Garappalo back for a game - it would be the neighborly thing for the 49ers to do.

Otherwise, if the Jaguars are good enough to beat the Steelers, then they're good enough to have a shot at the Patriots. Not a *great* shot, but a shot. Mainly they have to get consistent pressure on Brady without the blitz, to run the ball effectively, and get a couple turnovers (which, admittedly, they are good at doing).

I don't know why you don't think this game is even closer. The Pats played the Steelers to a draw (basically) and the Jaguars did as well (basically). The Jaguars have a very good chance in this game. I'm personally hoping for Jaguars that played the Bills, but I doubt we'll be that fortunate. They have no pressure and sure don't seem scared by the stage. This is going to be a very close game.

I have a feeling.

LIke I said, the Jaguars could win - they do have a great defense, so given that they just need Bortles to be not terrible. It's just that he's usually very, very terrible.

Yeah, Bortles has gone from being predictably terrible to unpredictably terrible. Unlike a year or two ago, you could see where he might have a good enough game to win. I just wouldn't want to be relying on it.

[msteelers]

Mmm... I just realized that the Philly game starts at 6:40. That means Philly Cheese Steaks for dinner!

[Kelric]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

QBs who have lost to B&B in the playoffs:

Kurt Warner
Kordell Stewart
Rich Gannon
Jake Delhomme
Peyton Manning (twice)
Steve McNair
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
Byron Leftwich
Philip Rivers (twice)
Chad Pennington
David Garrard
Joe Flacco (twice)
Tim Tebow
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck (twice)
Russell Wilson
Alex Smith
Matt Ryan
Brock Osweiler
Marcus Mariota

[LordMortis]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

QBs who have lost to B&B in the playoffs:

Kurt Warner
Kordell Stewart
Rich Gannon
Jake Delhomme
Peyton Manning (twice)
Steve McNair
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
Byron Leftwich
Philip Rivers (twice)
Chad Pennington
David Garrard
Joe Flacco (twice)
Tim Tebow
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck (twice)
Russell Wilson
Alex Smith
Matt Ryan
Brock Osweiler
Marcus Mariota

Yet another stat to pad Bortles record? Having never lost to B&B in the playoffs?

[ImLawBoy]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

QBs who have lost to B&B in the playoffs:

Kurt Warner
Kordell Stewart
Rich Gannon
Jake Delhomme
Peyton Manning (twice)
Steve McNair
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
Byron Leftwich
Philip Rivers (twice)
Chad Pennington
David Garrard
Joe Flacco (twice)
Tim Tebow
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck (twice)
Russell Wilson
Alex Smith
Matt Ryan
Brock Osweiler
Marcus Mariota

So in other words, the Patriots have still never beaten the Bears in the postseason?

[LordMortis]

History is not on Bortles' side

Mark Sanchez ('10)

Which is it? If Dirty Sanchez did it, history is certainly on Bortles side.

QBs who have lost to B&B in the playoffs:

Kurt Warner
Kordell Stewart
Rich Gannon
Jake Delhomme
Peyton Manning (twice)
Steve McNair
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger (twice)
Byron Leftwich
Philip Rivers (twice)
Chad Pennington
David Garrard
Joe Flacco (twice)
Tim Tebow
Matt Schaub
Andrew Luck (twice)
Russell Wilson
Alex Smith
Matt Ryan
Brock Osweiler
Marcus Mariota

So in other words, the Patriots have still never beaten the Bears in the postseason?

I also notice Eli Manning wasn't in that list.

[Kelric]

You are both correct.

[stessier]

I'm convinced Brady broke his thumb. I think he's going to try to play on Sunday but I bet Hoyer is in by the end of the first quarter. What a mess.

[LordMortis]

I'm convinced Brady broke his thumb. I think he's going to try to play on Sunday but I bet Hoyer is in by the end of the first quarter. What a mess.

Are you sure it wasn't her nose? That's what happens when you throw a football in the house.

[stessier]

He had a press conference this afternoon where he wore a glove on both hands (as expected - no one has a picture of his bare hand since the injury). When asked if he'll be out there on Sunday, he said "We'll see." He always, always says he'll be out there on Sunday. He prides himself on his availability. The Pats have never said anything more than he has a hand injury - the reports of negative x-rays were from outside the team. All signs point to this being a really big deal.

[Jaymann]

He had a press conference this afternoon where he wore a glove on both hands (as expected - no one has a picture of his bare hand since the injury). When asked if he'll be out there on Sunday, he said "We'll see." He always, always says he'll be out there on Sunday. He prides himself on his availability. The Pats have never said anything more than he has a hand injury - the reports of negative x-rays were from outside the team. All signs point to this being a really big deal.

So now the Patriots only win by 3 points. Belichick could beat the Jags with some guy throwing the football in the parking lot at QB.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Is this the beginning of the Curse of JimmyG???

[Kelric]

He had a press conference this afternoon where he wore a glove on both hands (as expected - no one has a picture of his bare hand since the injury). When asked if he'll be out there on Sunday, he said "We'll see." He always, always says he'll be out there on Sunday. He prides himself on his availability. The Pats have never said anything more than he has a hand injury - the reports of negative x-rays were from outside the team. All signs point to this being a really big deal.

So now the Patriots only win by 3 points. Belichick could beat the Jags with some guy throwing the football in the parking lot at QB.

Or as Belichick likes to say: "Johnny from Foxboro High!"

[El Guapo]

Seems like Brady's thumb injury is real. Brady seems like a lock to play regardless (unless it's *really* bad), but the question is how much it'll hamper Brady.

We'll see!

[Kurth]

He had a press conference this afternoon where he wore a glove on both hands (as expected - no one has a picture of his bare hand since the injury). When asked if he'll be out there on Sunday, he said "We'll see." He always, always says he'll be out there on Sunday. He prides himself on his availability. The Pats have never said anything more than he has a hand injury - the reports of negative x-rays were from outside the team. All signs point to this being a really big deal.

So, just watched Brady’s press conference. If ever I were to forget why I hate Brady and the Patriots so much, I’m just going to rewatch that.

The arrogance. The smugness. So fucking annoying.

I never wish injury on a player, but if it ends up that Brady and Belichick are jerking everyone around and the hand injury is really a fiction (which is my gut feeling), it would be karma for Brady to start, lead the Pats on an amazing opening drive where he goes 6/7 for 78 yards and a TD only to get knocked out for the game on the next drive.

The Pats would still probably win, but at least the SB might be competitive then.

[stessier]

He had a press conference this afternoon where he wore a glove on both hands (as expected - no one has a picture of his bare hand since the injury). When asked if he'll be out there on Sunday, he said "We'll see." He always, always says he'll be out there on Sunday. He prides himself on his availability. The Pats have never said anything more than he has a hand injury - the reports of negative x-rays were from outside the team. All signs point to this being a really big deal.

So, just watched Brady’s press conference. If ever I were to forget why I hate Brady and the Patriots so much, I’m just going to rewatch that.

The arrogance. The smugness. So fucking annoying.

It's kind of amazing how two people can watch the same video and come away with such different impressions. I rewatched your link to be sure we had the same basis. I also thought that maybe I didn't really know what those words meant (since I'm an engineer and not an English major -not being a jerk...it's happened before), so I looked them up:

Smug - having or showing an excessive pride in oneself or one's achievements.
Arrogance - having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.

Now, Patriots don't talk about injuries. Belichick hates to do it and players simply don't. Brady put off the press conference for two days but eventually had to do it. He knows he's not going to talk about the hand. The press knows he's not going to talk about the hand. So the dance begins.

I don't see him ever demonstrating smugness or arrogance. He is not going to talk about the hand. He's going to find a way to answer the question that makes no mention of the current situation. Where is he commenting on his achievements or abilities? All he ever said is that he's played through pain and he doesn't know if he'll be out there on Sunday.

Perhaps you don't like his smiling while dodging the questions? To me that goes back to the dance - he's not going to answer. Would you prefer he pull a Tomlin and look like he's going to bite through some rebar while dodging them?

By all accounts, he's hurt. The latest is that his hand got hit by Burkhead and either the ball or Burkhead's helmet opened a cut on the webbing between his thumb and index finger. He needed stitches (perhaps 4). He's wearing the glove to provide protection for the wound (games in which he's used a glove have never gone well and most of the ones he started with a glove ended the first quarter with him taking it off). He also is said to have thrown the ball all over the field on Friday (before that press conference). If anything is propaganda, that part might be. Kraft was concerned enough to cut a trip short and fly back to check things out.

I hope you're right and that the whole thing was a mind game, though. The karma part...not so much.