NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by ImLawBoy »

My strategy (Which has won in the past! Guarantee of future performance!) has always been to go with my gut and not worry too much about the details. I follow Michigan closely, the Big Ten somewhat, and I otherwise just see some scores and highlights, but I have a general idea of which teams and conferences I think are overrated, and I pick against them. The 12-5 upset is always popular, and I think there's some method behind it (since the 12 seeds tend to be the best of the auto-bid leagues, who may be underseeded a bit, and the 5 seeds are often puzzling major conference teams who might be overseeded a bit), so I usually pick one or two of those (but not any more than that). My brackets get filled out in 15 minutes - it's too random to spend any more time than that on them.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Isgrimnur »

Upset statistics

16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early. :wink:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Isgrimnur »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:36 pm In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early. :wink:
With the historical odds being 35.61% and four games per toruney, the odds of NOT seeing one in any given year are (64.39%)^4, or 17.19%
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:38 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:36 pm In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early. :wink:
With the historical odds being 35.61% and four games per toruney, the odds of NOT seeing one in any given year are (64.39%)^4, or 17.19%
But the point is that the 35.61% historical odds is a good bit higher than you might expect for games where there should be (based on seeding, at least) a wide disparity between the two teams in talent.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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I'm not disagreeing.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

How the hell does ASU get into a play-in game? Yes, they had two good early season wins (Xavier and Kansas). They then proceeded to go 8-10 in conference, finish 9th, and lose in the first round of the conference tourney. :?
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Maybe the committee felt bad for the PAC12?
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Arizona Wildcats and Red Raiders! :horse:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Remus West »

Is anyone doing an OO bracket challenge?
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Moliere »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:12 pm Upset statistics

16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
Thank you. I filled out my office bracket with the top 4 winning the first round. After that I started picking random upsets about 1/3 of the time if the seeding was close.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Glad to be of assistance.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Pyperkub »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:12 pm Upset statistics

16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
The only time a 16 has beaten a 1 was in the Women's Tourney, and that was a Stanford team dependent on having the best player in Women's basketball and that player tore her ACL during practice after the selection/seeding was announced, but before the games started.

I think it will take something similar before it happens to a Men's team.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Pyperkub »

Remus West wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:33 pm Is anyone doing an OO bracket challenge?
I'll throw one up if there's interest - it seemed like there were only about 5 of us in it last time I did so.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Pyperkub »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
Definitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.

As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Everyone wanted Notre Dame just based on potential and early season play. They did not look impressive at all to me in the games after Colson came back from injury.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by ImLawBoy »

Anything that upsets Notre Dame fans is OK by me.
Pyperkub wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
Definitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.
I haven't seen enough to suggest to me that there was a conspiracy (and I tend to be very skeptical of conspiracies to begin with), but this argument doesn't do much for me. Arizona and Auburn weren't even close to the bubble, so they couldn't get snubbed. USC was pretty obviously better than, say, Syracuse, and the OSU-OU situation is also a bit jarring. The fact that the committee couldn't snub some of the problem children doesn't mean that they didn't snub those that were snubbable.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by pr0ner »

Pyperkub wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
Definitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.

As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
So what did Oklahoma do to deserve to get in? They closed out their season going 2-8.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Pyperkub »

pr0ner wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
Definitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.

As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
So what did Oklahoma do to deserve to get in? They closed out their season going 2-8.
ASU was just about as bad, but they yanked the "recent" performance portion of the selection criteria, at least for getting in. I think that was mostly done to get teams to schedule better pre-conference matchups (if you'll recall, Syracuse used to routinely open 18-0/19-1 before rolling in at something like 26-9 due to playing a ton of easy games at home to start the season (and since they sell out the Carrier Dome at 34k+, why not if there was no penalty).

So, ignore the close-out. Focus on the true road wins early in the season - Oregon, TCU, USC, Wichita St, as well as the home wins over TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech.

FWIW, I think they may tweak this a bit, as both USC and Oregon were not good early in the season, and I think Wichita St was a bit shaky as well.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I don't think Oklahoma really did anything to get in over some of teams that were left out. But the committee clearly didn't want to leave Trae Young out of the tournament in his (almost certain) only year of college basketball.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:17 pm I don't think Oklahoma really did anything to get in over some of teams that were left out. But the committee clearly didn't want to leave Trae Young out of the tournament in his (almost certain) only year of college basketball.
I was stunned Oklahoma got in (as well as Syracuse). I wasn't quite as stunned ASU got in, but those were the tweaks the committee had made to the selection criteria this year and make some logical, on paper, sense, if not necessarily the eye-test (which kicks them all out, and puts USC in, IMHO - but I still would have left Notre Dame out, due to that lack of a real, quality win after everyone got back.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

I’ve never seen Trae Young play, and yet find myself completely sick of him. Felt like every ESPN alert I got during the season was something to do with him. “Trae Young and Oklahoma take on Podunk State!” “Watch Trae Young and Oklahoma battle OSU on ESPN”. “Trae Young scores 30 as Oklahoma drops another conference game to TCU”

We get it, he’s a good player on a shitty team. I don’t need updates every time he steps on the floor.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Remus West »

Pyperkub wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:29 pm
Remus West wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:33 pm Is anyone doing an OO bracket challenge?
I'll throw one up if there's interest - it seemed like there were only about 5 of us in it last time I did so.
I'd be in. Anyone else?

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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I'd probably fill one out.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:And Pac-12 teams always flame out early. :wink:
I should’ve listened to my own advice when filling out my brackets...
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Isgrimnur »

Image

:shock: :cry:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

I kinda thought all the controversy would galvanize an Arizona team that has a ton of talent, and had them making a run to the Elite 8.

Or not.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by ImLawBoy »

I had Arizona losing to Kentucky in the next round anyway, so I welcome the chaos!
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Is it really arguable anymore that Sean Miller isn't a terrible tournament coach? His teams always under-perform based on their talent and seeding. His main ability as a coach is recruiting, but of course that may be because he pays his players 100K.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:29 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:And Pac-12 teams always flame out early. :wink:
I should’ve listened to my own advice when filling out my brackets...
Seen this morning:
“With Arizona’s loss to Buffalo, the Pac-12 has officially made history. (Not the good kind.) Per ESPN Stats and Info, no major conference has failed to send a team to the round of 32 since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996-97. The 2018 Pac-12 is the first of its kind.” – ESPN John Gasaway.
It's almost like the committee picked the 1st (AZ), 4th (UCLA), and 9th (ASU) best teams to represent the conference…
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by ImLawBoy »

I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.

On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:26 am I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.

On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
Mrs. Skinypupy and I went to a play last night, and were listening to that game on the radio on the way home. We got from the theater to our house - a 25 minute drive - without a single point being scored by either team. It sounded absurd.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Moliere »

So far I am 14 out of 16. :horse:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Skinypupy wrote: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:53 am
ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:26 am I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.

On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
Mrs. Skinypupy and I went to a play last night, and were listening to that game on the radio on the way home. We got from the theater to our house - a 25 minute drive - without a single point being scored by either team. It sounded absurd.
Part of that was likely due to an extensive timeout while they tried to fix the clocks, which had apparently died from boredom.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

Deadspin had the best headline.

Arizona avoids vacating future tournament wins. :lol:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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:clap:
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

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Skinypupy wrote: Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:11 pm I’ve never seen Trae Young play, and yet find myself completely sick of him. Felt like every ESPN alert I got during the season was something to do with him. “Trae Young and Oklahoma take on Podunk State!” “Watch Trae Young and Oklahoma battle OSU on ESPN”. “Trae Young scores 30 as Oklahoma drops another conference game to TCU”

We get it, he’s a good player on a shitty team. I don’t need updates every time he steps on the floor.
A kid that plays for RI graduated from the school I teach at so I had the game on. I was sick of hearing Trae Young by the end of the first minute having already heard it 60 times. Kid can play offense but sucks on defense. Truly good players can get it done on both ends of the court.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by Skinypupy »

4/13 matchup is the new 5/12.
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Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018

Post by The Meal »

My South bracket is currently perfect (picked both Buffalo and Loyola).

I'm 3/5 in the West (mistakes were both S.D. States).

3/6 in the East (missing on SFA, VA Tech, and Wichata State, whom I had getting two wins).

In the Midwest I'm 3/4 (missing on NC State).

So far just the one two-game winner out early. In the pool I'm in you multiply your round number with the seed for points for each winner you pick. I only went heavy with upsets in the first round, but I went with a UM/MSU final (for the absurdity of it). We'll see how it goes. I had a coworker pick UCLA for the final 4 (they didn't get out of the play-in round which wasn't part of the pool, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ).
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