Super Bowl LIII

[Jaymann]

I watched the Bears game at a bar with some friends today. Most of the screens were on the Bears game, but a couple were on the Jets/Colts, one was on gymnastics (the controller wasn't working on that one), and one was on the Red Zone Channel. As the Bears game came to its thrilling conclusion (I was actively rooting for a tie at that point), I looked at the Red Zone Channel TV and noticed that they were showing the Bears game - but 8 seconds or so ahead of the regular broadcast. I find it odd that the Red Zone Channel doesn't use the delay that the regular broadcast does.

So you get the red zone app and go to a bar that doesn't show it. "I bet you $100 this is a completion for a touchdown!"

[stessier]

I don't know how a team stops KC. Hill is too fast and Hunt is too strong. The Pats never punted and almost lost. It's a good thing Mahomes didn't start just throwing it in Hill's general direction until the 4th quarter.

I am so tired.

uh, didn't the Patriots just stop KC?

Outlasted - not the same.

[El Guapo]

I don't know how a team stops KC. Hill is too fast and Hunt is too strong. The Pats never punted and almost lost. It's a good thing Mahomes didn't start just throwing it in Hill's general direction until the 4th quarter.

I am so tired.

uh, didn't the Patriots just stop KC?

Outlasted - not the same.

Oh, so you mean you don't know how a team stops *their offense*.

Yeah, that's a problem. But you can just do the whole outlasting thing by scoring even more points.

[stessier]

From Bill Barnwell (ESPN) -

At this point, Peterman is approaching historically bad levels. In an era in which quarterbacks throw interceptions less frequently than ever before, Peterman has thrown 10 picks on 82 pass attempts across the regular season and playoffs. Tyrod Taylor, whom Peterman replaced last season, has thrown just seven picks on 541 passes since the start of 2017. Alex Smith has thrown seven interceptions on 709 pass attempts over that same time frame. Smith could throw interceptions on each of his next 90 pass attempts and still have a better interception rate than Peterman since the start of 2017.

Ouch.

[El Guapo]

From Bill Barnwell (ESPN) -

At this point, Peterman is approaching historically bad levels. In an era in which quarterbacks throw interceptions less frequently than ever before, Peterman has thrown 10 picks on 82 pass attempts across the regular season and playoffs. Tyrod Taylor, whom Peterman replaced last season, has thrown just seven picks on 541 passes since the start of 2017. Alex Smith has thrown seven interceptions on 709 pass attempts over that same time frame. Smith could throw interceptions on each of his next 90 pass attempts and still have a better interception rate than Peterman since the start of 2017.

Ouch.

Yeah, it's pretty legit amazing. The Ringer had a bit on this too:

There is no good reason for the Bills to continue employing Peterman. He has now thrown nine career interceptions on just 79 career attempts, a preposterously high 11.4 percent interception rate. The worst qualifying player in the league last year was DeShone Kizer, and his interception rate of 4.6 wasn’t half as bad as Peterman’s. It’s a small sample size, but it’s not like Peterman has had a few freak accidents. He’s played a prominent role in four games and three of them have been absolute catastrophes. (In the fourth, third-string QB Joe Webb III took over and led the Bills to a 13-7 overtime win over the Andrew Luck–less Colts in a blizzard.)

There is, however, a bad reason for the Bills to continue employing Nathan Peterman. If the Bills had been rational and cut Peterman after his five-pick game, he would be remembered for only one bad performance. But if the Bills keep letting him hang around and he keeps finding his way into games and he keeps throwing hideous interceptions in pivotal moments, he can truly become the worst quarterback of the modern era. The Bills shouldn’t let him continue his pursuit of anti-greatness, but I hope they do.

The Bills aren't going anywhere this year, Peterman or no. So why not throw him out there every week, see just how bad he can be, and then use the resulting high draft pick to hopefully be better next year?

[stessier]

Because RM9 is a person too, and it's not nice to crush him for no reason.

The Bills aren't going anywhere this year, Peterman or no. So why not throw him out there every week, see just how bad he can be, and then use the resulting high draft pick to hopefully be better next year?

[El Guapo]

Because RM9 is a person too, and it's not nice to crush him for no reason.

The Bills aren't going anywhere this year, Peterman or no. So why not throw him out there every week, see just how bad he can be, and then use the resulting high draft pick to hopefully be better next year?

It's not "for no reason". It's for the hilarity and to see what records can be broken.

[RunningMn9]

I mean...ouch.

In unrelated news, since Vontae Davis retired at half-time of the Chargers game, the Bills defense at least has probably been the best in the NFL.

270.4 total yards per game (1st)
196.7 passing yards per game (3rd)
73.8 rushing yards per game (2nd)
14.0 points per game (2nd)
5.6 yards per pass attempt (1st)
3.4 yards per rush attempt (2nd)

And they're averaging 3 takeaways and 4 sacks per game since then. All wasted because this offense is the most putrid thing I've ever seen.

[stessier]

I can't find it now, but the KC defense is on pace to shatter bad records. The worst defense for Total Yards was the 2012 Saints at around 7000. KC is on pace to give up 7400.

The KC D against the BUF O would be a sight to behold.

[Isgrimnur]

Any Texas Tech fan will tell you that a complete lack of defense is a prerequisite to having a gunslinger QB.

#FirstOneTo70Wins

[Isgrimnur]

[Captain Caveman]

[stessier]

Jeff Fischer just sent in his resume.

[naednek]

Without any prompting...

Dad: "that guy in the scissor lift adds nothing to the broadcast"

Me:. Thank you! Had this discussion last week.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[stessier]

Aaron Schatz giveth and Aaron Schatz taketh away.

Spoiler:

The Buffalo Bills defense has moved up to third in our DVOA ratings this week, behind only Chicago and Baltimore. The Buffalo Bills offense is now the second-worst ever since 1986, behind only the 2004 Dolphins.

Edit - more

[Isgrimnur]

[stessier]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

[Jaymann]

Another odd win for the Chargers, they hold on when the Titans fail on an attempted two point conversion to win it in regulation. In a weird venue like London, where it feels like anything can happen, I'll take it. The call by the Titans didn't seem all that bad given they had been moving the ball all game. I am surprised more desperate teams do not go that route, odds be damned.

[Jeff V]

One.fucking.yard.

[pr0ner]

The Redskins are, objectively, not a very good football team (the offense is awful, outside of AP), yet here we sit, they're 4-2, and they're guaranteed to be in first place in the NFC East come November. What a season.

[Isgrimnur]

The Redskins are, objectively, not a very good football team (the offense is awful, outside of AP), yet here we sit, they're 4-2, and they're guaranteed to be in first place in the NFC East come November. What a season.

And the best team that they play in the next three weeks is Tampa Bay, sitting at 3-3.

[ImLawBoy]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

[Isgrimnur]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

[pr0ner]

The Redskins are, objectively, not a very good football team (the offense is awful, outside of AP), yet here we sit, they're 4-2, and they're guaranteed to be in first place in the NFC East come November. What a season.

And the best team that they play in the next three weeks is Tampa Bay, sitting at 3-3.

The defense is legit a top 10 NFL defense this year. But if they can't get Alex Smith and the passing game going, I don't know how far the defense and Adrian Peterson can carry them. But the schedule is winding up softer than I expected - the AFC South foes are underwhelming as a whole and the NFC East is hot garbage.

[stessier]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

A Patriot running into his own teammate and fumbling directly to a Bear. A Bear viciously twisting down the Patriots best running back in an attempt to turn his knee into hamburger (looks like he'll be fine in a few weeks, thanks for asking) leading (very reasonably) to a fumble, a QB running 78 yards untouched to score an 8 yard touchdown, four drive extending penalties, and two dropped interceptions.

Just because the competition was inept enough to get all of that and still go into a half with a deficit does not mean the Patriots weren't stinking up the joint.

[ImLawBoy]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

A Patriot running into his own teammate and fumbling directly to a Bear. A Bear viciously twisting down the Patriots best running back in an attempt to turn his knee into hamburger (looks like he'll be fine in a few weeks, thanks for asking) leading (very reasonably) to a fumble, a QB running 78 yards untouched to score an 8 yard touchdown, four drive extending penalties, and two dropped interceptions.

Just because the competition was inept enough to get all of that and still go into a half with a deficit does not mean the Patriots weren't stinking up the joint.

Or you could just admit that your original statement was hyperbole and that everything that could go wrong didn't go wrong for the Patriots, and that they in fact had some damn good plays and luck, too. Or you could go with this approach. Whatever works for you.

[stessier]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

A Patriot running into his own teammate and fumbling directly to a Bear. A Bear viciously twisting down the Patriots best running back in an attempt to turn his knee into hamburger (looks like he'll be fine in a few weeks, thanks for asking) leading (very reasonably) to a fumble, a QB running 78 yards untouched to score an 8 yard touchdown, four drive extending penalties, and two dropped interceptions.

Just because the competition was inept enough to get all of that and still go into a half with a deficit does not mean the Patriots weren't stinking up the joint.

Or you could just admit that your original statement was hyperbole and that everything that could go wrong didn't go wrong for the Patriots, and that they in fact had some damn good plays and luck, too. Or you could go with this approach. Whatever works for you.

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

[ImLawBoy]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

A Patriot running into his own teammate and fumbling directly to a Bear. A Bear viciously twisting down the Patriots best running back in an attempt to turn his knee into hamburger (looks like he'll be fine in a few weeks, thanks for asking) leading (very reasonably) to a fumble, a QB running 78 yards untouched to score an 8 yard touchdown, four drive extending penalties, and two dropped interceptions.

Just because the competition was inept enough to get all of that and still go into a half with a deficit does not mean the Patriots weren't stinking up the joint.

Or you could just admit that your original statement was hyperbole and that everything that could go wrong didn't go wrong for the Patriots, and that they in fact had some damn good plays and luck, too. Or you could go with this approach. Whatever works for you.

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

You can't win if you don't play!

[stessier]

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

You can't win if you don't play!

I'm waiting until it breaks $10B and then when I win, I'll put my bid in for the Patriots.

[El Guapo]

Everything that could go wrong, did for the Patriots in the first half. I hope the defense has enough conditioning to last another 30 minutes.

Yeah, I hate it when my team has a kickoff return for a touchdown and two impressive TD drives and goes into the half leading. That's definitely a clue that everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

A Patriot running into his own teammate and fumbling directly to a Bear. A Bear viciously twisting down the Patriots best running back in an attempt to turn his knee into hamburger (looks like he'll be fine in a few weeks, thanks for asking) leading (very reasonably) to a fumble, a QB running 78 yards untouched to score an 8 yard touchdown, four drive extending penalties, and two dropped interceptions.

Just because the competition was inept enough to get all of that and still go into a half with a deficit does not mean the Patriots weren't stinking up the joint.

Or you could just admit that your original statement was hyperbole and that everything that could go wrong didn't go wrong for the Patriots, and that they in fact had some damn good plays and luck, too. Or you could go with this approach. Whatever works for you.

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

What's the most optimistic you've ever been on a Boston sports team?

[stessier]

What's the most optimistic you've ever been on a Boston sports team?

I thought the 2007 Patriots would win the SB after starting 18-0. And still thought so after the Manning hit Asante Samuel in the hands with a pass with 1:22 left in the 4th quarter. And even when the Giants held half the Pats D-line as Manning threw a hail mary to a player who would never make another catch in the NFL.

Not so much after that though.

[$iljanus]

Giants D is giving their best so far but you gotta score points.

[Kelric]

Giants D is giving their best so far but you gotta score points.

You only have to score more than the other team.

[$iljanus]

Giants D is giving their best so far but you gotta score points.

You only have to score more than the other team.

And the Giants were woefully incapable of that.

[RunningMn9]

That is probably the worst end of game management I've ever seen from a team. People should be fired for that. Down by 8, and you choose to go for two? There is no justifiable reason to go for two in that situation for ANY reason. Fail to convert and you remain down by 8, requiring you to convert your next attempt just to tie the game. If you make it, you are down by 6. Which in theory would mean that a TD and XP now win it. Except if you kick the XP now, then you can go for 2 on the next one to try to win it if you so choose.

But beyond that. You are down by 11 points, and you get the ball back with 1:47 on the clock. Your first play is a bomb to the opponent's 14-yard line and out of bounds - stopping the clock at 1:40. At this point in time in order to win you need a FG, TD (with 2 pt conversion thanks to your earlier blunder), or two TDs. Because it was probably unexpected, I can understand lining up and throwing one play to the end zone. That will eat maybe 6 seconds off the clock and if it's incomplete, the clock stops. At that point, you must score, and a FG keeps the game alive. KICK THE FG AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

You cannot win without an onside kick no matter what you do. So get the points you need as fast as is humanely possible and get to the onside kick attempt (which is almost impossible now, but still). If you recover that (which you must to have any chance at winning the game), you've left yourself with as much time as possible to get the second score.

Throwing over the middle, short of the end zone? *TWO* QB sneaks at the goal line? You cannot win that game with those kinds of stupid decisions.

[El Guapo]

FWIW, as a rule, 538 says that the data supports going for 2 when down 8 points in the 4th quarter.

Though I'm sure that there are lots of situational caveats.

[Isgrimnur]

[stessier]

FWIW, as a rule, 538 says that the data supports going for 2 when down 8 points in the 4th quarter.

Though I'm sure that there are lots of situational caveats.

Yeah, this is like the analytical poster child for going for two. It was the right call.

The rest of it, though, I agree. Complete abomination. I loved the two sneaks from the 1 with the clock rolling. That was the piece de resistance.

[El Guapo]

FWIW, as a rule, 538 says that the data supports going for 2 when down 8 points in the 4th quarter.

Though I'm sure that there are lots of situational caveats.

Yeah, this is like the analytical poster child for going for two. It was the right call.

The rest of it, though, I agree. Complete abomination. I loved the two sneaks from the 1 with the clock rolling. That was the piece de resistance.

Of course, a big part of the equation is going to be "what are your odds of success going for 2?", which is going to vary team by team.

[stessier]

FWIW, as a rule, 538 says that the data supports going for 2 when down 8 points in the 4th quarter.

Though I'm sure that there are lots of situational caveats.

Yeah, this is like the analytical poster child for going for two. It was the right call.

The rest of it, though, I agree. Complete abomination. I loved the two sneaks from the 1 with the clock rolling. That was the piece de resistance.

Of course, a big part of the equation is going to be "what are your odds of success going for 2?", which is going to vary team by team.

Indeed. I haven't read that article, but the "bad" vs "good" teams are like 45% versus 60%. It's not a huge spread and the Giants had Barkley and Beckham - they had to be at least 50% odds.