Super Bowl LIII

[stessier]

But beyond that. You are down by 11 points, and you get the ball back with 1:47 on the clock. Your first play is a bomb to the opponent's 14-yard line and out of bounds - stopping the clock at 1:40. At this point in time in order to win you need a FG, TD (with 2 pt conversion thanks to your earlier blunder), or two TDs. Because it was probably unexpected, I can understand lining up and throwing one play to the end zone. That will eat maybe 6 seconds off the clock and if it's incomplete, the clock stops. At that point, you must score, and a FG keeps the game alive. KICK THE FG AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

One other quibble is with this. Once you are inside the 20, I think the numbers support going for it even on 4th down. Obviously you need to choose plays that leave you enough time for the onside kick, but the idea that you can't get 14 yards now but will have no trouble getting them the next time is flawed. Also factored in is if you do get the TD and recover the onside kick, you're already in FG range (albeit a crazy long one).

[RunningMn9]

One other quibble is with this. Once you are inside the 20, I think the numbers support going for it even on 4th down. Obviously you need to choose plays that leave you enough time for the onside kick, but the idea that you can't get 14 yards now but will have no trouble getting them the next time is flawed. Also factored in is if you do get the TD and recover the onside kick, you're already in FG range (albeit a crazy long one).

If recover the onside kick, you are generally on your own side of the 50 yard line. You aren't in field goal range.

In this situation, everything I've ever seen over the years when it comes to analytics is that the most critical component to enhancing your chances of victory is the preservation of time. I could even accept three shots into the end zone, at about 5 or 6 seconds each. You cannot pass the ball in the field of play, and you sure as shit cannot run the goddamn ball with Eeyore. Twice.

[Isgrimnur]

FWIW, as a rule, 538 says that the data supports going for 2 when down 8 points in the 4th quarter.

Though I'm sure that there are lots of situational caveats.

Yeah, this is like the analytical poster child for going for two. It was the right call.

The rest of it, though, I agree. Complete abomination. I loved the two sneaks from the 1 with the clock rolling. That was the piece de resistance.

Of course, a big part of the equation is going to be "what are your odds of success going for 2?", which is going to vary team by team.

Indeed. I haven't read that article, but the "bad" vs "good" teams are like 45% versus 60%. It's not a huge spread and the Giants had Barkley and Beckham - they had to be at least 50% odds.

[RunningMn9]

Of course, a big part of the equation is going to be "what are your odds of success going for 2?", which is going to vary team by team.

Right, and that's where coaching experience comes in. Chances of success change due to a lot of factors. In this scenario, I would never go for two. I understand that I'm not an NFL head coach, but neither is anyone that works for 538.

[El Guapo]

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

You can't win if you don't play!

I'm waiting until it breaks $10B and then when I win, I'll put my bid in for the Patriots.

It only hit $2B, but I did see that the winning ticket was sold in South Carolina. You putting in a bid yet? Or are you going to have to settle for the Revolution with only $2B?

[stessier]

I mean, given my history, you have a better chance at winning Mega Millions than of me choosing Option A.

You can't win if you don't play!

I'm waiting until it breaks $10B and then when I win, I'll put my bid in for the Patriots.

It only hit $2B, but I did see that the winning ticket was sold in South Carolina. You putting in a bid yet? Or are you going to have to settle for the Revolution with only $2B?

Not only in SC, but in the town I bought my ticket. Sadly, no joy.

[stessier]

One other quibble is with this. Once you are inside the 20, I think the numbers support going for it even on 4th down. Obviously you need to choose plays that leave you enough time for the onside kick, but the idea that you can't get 14 yards now but will have no trouble getting them the next time is flawed. Also factored in is if you do get the TD and recover the onside kick, you're already in FG range (albeit a crazy long one).

If recover the onside kick, you are generally on your own side of the 50 yard line. You aren't in field goal range.

Depends how good the onside play is! (yeah, messed that up)

In this situation, everything I've ever seen over the years when it comes to analytics is that the most critical component to enhancing your chances of victory is the preservation of time. I could even accept three shots into the end zone, at about 5 or 6 seconds each. You cannot pass the ball in the field of play, and you sure as shit cannot run the goddamn ball with Eeyore. Twice.

Oh, I agree that time is important. The play calls were horrible. Amusingly so. Like, you could even make a case that the first attempt was justifiable in terms of catching them off guard, but the second was just boneheaded.

[Hrothgar]

Ooh, Brock Osweiller returns to Houston tonight. Where else but the NFL do you get such enticing storylines?
[/sarcasm]

This seems like such an easy Texans win, I might have to go full stessier and predict the Dolphins blowing them out.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Has Houston had any easy wins this year? It’s not like they’re setting the world on fire either.

[noxiousdog]

Has Houston had any easy wins this year? It’s not like they’re setting the world on fire either.

The Jacksonville game they played well.

According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are very underrated. I still expect a Texans win as they've been playing progressively better and Miami with Brock is much worse than Miami with Tannehill.

[El Guapo]

Ooh, Brock Osweiller returns to Houston tonight. Where else but the NFL do you get such enticing storylines?
[/sarcasm]

This seems like such an easy Texans win, I might have to go full stessier and predict the Dolphins blowing them out.

Never go full stessier.

[Hrothgar]

Miami has several key injuries, is coming off a physical loss against Detriot, they've lost three of their last four, have never won at NRG Stadium, and are helmed by Brock. Houston has won four in a row, just took the division lead, outplayed a tough Jacksonville team that manhandled them last season, now has Watt, Clowney and Mercilus firing on all cylinders, and are helmed by Watson who now understands the limits of his offensive line. It just seems like too perfect of a set up. The Texans have underperformed in prime time before. It make me nervous, probably not stessier nervous, but nervous nonetheless.

[stessier]

Brock threw for nearly 400 yards against a good Bears defense after getting few first team reps leading up to the game. Houston beat a disintegrating Jacksonville team that benched it'svstarting QB by the second half. Houston's offensive line has made it so that the franchise QB has to take cross country buses to games lest the stress of flying ruin his alrwady damaged lungs. Houston has a coach that watched an entire offseason of QB play and thought Tom Savage was the better choice. Houston would have lost to Buffalo but for the appearance of Nathan Peterman to save their day. But I'm sure you'll be fine.

[noxiousdog]

At least the dolphins have the refs on their side. Normally I wouldn't comment, but three bad calls (which the announcers all agreed were bad calls) have led to a seventeen point swing.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

[noxiousdog]

I guess it didn't matter in the end.

At least the dolphins have the refs on their side. Normally I wouldn't comment, but three bad calls (which the announcers all agreed were bad calls) have led to a seventeen point swing.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

[Hrothgar]

Like I was saying, easy Texans win. Thank you stessier.

[stessier]

Like I was saying, easy Texans win. Thank you stessier.

I'm glad I could help. All Miami losses make me happy.

[stessier]

Went to Wild Wings Cafe to watch the games today and saw Hayden Panettiere with her boyfriend. She was alone when I first noticed her and thought she looked familiar. Later someone confirmed it was actually her.

This was more interesting than most of the early games.

[pr0ner]

5-2!!

[geezer]

5-2!!

...and only one over-.500 team left on the schedule.

I'm not really a believer though. I don't see a team with zero decent WR and a suspect QB holding up in a game with any serious NFC contenders.

[pr0ner]

5-2!!

...and only one over-.500 team left on the schedule.

I'm not really a believer though. I don't see a team with zero decent WR and a suspect QB holding up in a game with any serious NFC contenders.

The defense seems legit. But the offense is definitely suspect and will be hot garbage if the wheels fall off Peterson.

I think they can win the NFC East, and might win a playoff game depending on the opponent, but they can't hang with the NFC elite, I agree.

[$iljanus]

5-2!!

...and only one over-.500 team left on the schedule.

I'm not really a believer though. I don't see a team with zero decent WR and a suspect QB holding up in a game with any serious NFC contenders.

The defense seems legit. But the offense is definitely suspect and will be hot garbage if the wheels fall off Peterson.

I think they can win the NFC East, and might win a playoff game depending on the opponent, but they can't hang with the NFC elite, I agree.

Looking at their schedule, they’ll look really great against the middle to bottom of the barrel teams!

[Isgrimnur]

Spoiler:

Source: The #Browns have fired coach Hue Jackson. @AdamSchefter on it first.

[naednek]

5-2!!

...and only one over-.500 team left on the schedule.

I'm not really a believer though. I don't see a team with zero decent WR and a suspect QB holding up in a game with any serious NFC contenders.

and remember.... you have Alex Smith as a QB...

[Jaymann]

Spoiler:

Source: The #Browns have fired coach Hue Jackson. @AdamSchefter on it first.

What? They already have more wins than the last two seasons. Why now?

[Isgrimnur]

Conflict

Browns head coach Hue Jackson's hints at potentially taking over play-calling duties following last week's loss – which he later sought to walk-back or clarify – were met with sweeping internal derision from players, staff and management, according to sources with knowledge of the situation, further undermining his tenuous relationships in Cleveland.

Jackson's remarks flabbergasted and confounded those he works with and confused many in the locker room after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield had just rallied the team from a 16-2 halftime deficit to send the game into overtime. It was Jackson's own inability to develop a quarterback or kickstart the offense that led to the hiring of former Chiefs head coach Todd Haley as offensive coordinator in the offseason, and the Browns are averaging a touchdown more per game than they did a year ago.

Jackson has defied the odds by remaining with the Browns despite a 1-31 record in his first two seasons and has enjoyed unprecedented support and loyalty from Jimmy and Dee Haslam as owners. However, there is open discussion within that organization below the ownership level about whether or not Jackson is fit for the job, and whether or not the future of Mayfield should be entrusted to him. Jackson's remarks on Sunday further alienated him from his staff, according to numerous sources with knowledge of the situation, and he has rankled others by repeatedly allowing players to show up late or not adhere to the team's dress code when traveling with little repercussions. A lack of discipline is considered part of the losing culture there.

Jackson has displayed a propensity to obsess over the comments of other coaches and staff to the media, sources said, parsing out words to determine whether or not he is being given sufficient credit for the team's progress. Sunday's outburst won't be quickly forgotten and deepens his fight for respect with those he works with, the sources said.

[stessier]

Wow, that is really surprising. Not unjust - more the timing of it really.

[geezer]

5-2!!

...and only one over-.500 team left on the schedule.

I'm not really a believer though. I don't see a team with zero decent WR and a suspect QB holding up in a game with any serious NFC contenders.

and remember.... you have Alex Smith as a QB...

Honestly with the receiving corps the 'Skins have, I'm not sure there'd be any practical difference between Alex Smith, Nathan Peterson, or Tom Brady. I mean, there's not a legit number TWO WR on that roster, much less a dominant #1. Has Josh Doctson ever even made a difference in an NFL game?

[Isgrimnur]

Cowboys fire O-line coach Paul Alexander, rehire 75yo Hudson Houck, who retired in 2012, as an OL adviser.

[Jaymann]

Isn't that Bruce Willis?

[stessier]

The Patriots need to get another RB.

[RunningMn9]

The Patriots need to get another RB.

The Bills defense tried so hard. They don't deserve to be paired with this putrid offense.

[Isgrimnur]

Isn't that Bruce Willis?

[El Guapo]

The Patriots need to get another RB.

The Bills defense tried so hard. They don't deserve to be paired with this putrid offense.

Maybe they should put their defense up for adoption? There are plenty of NFL teams that would love to give it a happy home.

[Isgrimnur]

(10:20) (Shotgun) D.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to C.Clay. Flea-flicker, handoff to L.McCoy, flip to Z.Jones before toss to D.Anderson.
Overthrown, receiver in flat at NE 15.

[Pyperkub]

Conflict

Browns head coach Hue Jackson's hints at potentially taking over play-calling duties following last week's loss – which he later sought to walk-back or clarify – were met with sweeping internal derision from players, staff and management, according to sources with knowledge of the situation, further undermining his tenuous relationships in Cleveland.

Jackson's remarks flabbergasted and confounded those he works with and confused many in the locker room after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield had just rallied the team from a 16-2 halftime deficit to send the game into overtime. It was Jackson's own inability to develop a quarterback or kickstart the offense that led to the hiring of former Chiefs head coach Todd Haley as offensive coordinator in the offseason, and the Browns are averaging a touchdown more per game than they did a year ago.

Jackson has defied the odds by remaining with the Browns despite a 1-31 record in his first two seasons and has enjoyed unprecedented support and loyalty from Jimmy and Dee Haslam as owners. However, there is open discussion within that organization below the ownership level about whether or not Jackson is fit for the job, and whether or not the future of Mayfield should be entrusted to him. Jackson's remarks on Sunday further alienated him from his staff, according to numerous sources with knowledge of the situation, and he has rankled others by repeatedly allowing players to show up late or not adhere to the team's dress code when traveling with little repercussions. A lack of discipline is considered part of the losing culture there.

Jackson has displayed a propensity to obsess over the comments of other coaches and staff to the media, sources said, parsing out words to determine whether or not he is being given sufficient credit for the team's progress. Sunday's outburst won't be quickly forgotten and deepens his fight for respect with those he works with, the sources said.

Given that they sacked their top 2 Offensive minds here, I'd think about hiring Bob Stoops (former OU Head Coach) as an offensive consultant the rest of the season.

[Pyperkub]

The Patriots need to get another RB.

The Bills defense tried so hard. They don't deserve to be paired with this putrid offense.

I do have to say, the Monday Night Countdown in Buffalo for Thurman Thomas Jersey/Number retirement was pretty cool, and the stadium shots were amazing. Loved Berman showing up with a covered wagon with Kelly, Thomas, et al, and the whole tailgate scene. That was an amazing atmosphere!

Side note, should have kept Tyrod Taylor for another year at least.

[El Guapo]

The Patriots need to get another RB.

The Bills defense tried so hard. They don't deserve to be paired with this putrid offense.

I do have to say, the Monday Night Countdown in Buffalo for Thurman Thomas Jersey/Number retirement was pretty cool, and the stadium shots were amazing. Loved Berman showing up with a covered wagon with Kelly, Thomas, et al, and the whole tailgate scene. That was an amazing atmosphere!

Side note, should have kept Tyrod Taylor for another year at least.

But when you have a generational talent like Nathan Peterman, you gotta clear the deck for them.

[LawBeefaroni]

Golden Tate to the Eagles for a 3rd round pick. Dammit.

[Z-Corn]

Golden Tate to the Eagles for a 3rd round pick. Dammit.

Yeah, this seems a bit premature to me...