2018 Hurricane Season

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:08 pm

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:10 pm

Subtropical Storm Alberto was the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first tropical or subtropical cyclone to enter the Gulf of Mexico in the month of May since 1976,[1] as well as the most intense by pressure in that month since Hurricane Able in 1951. ... [D]ry air caused Alberto to weaken before it made landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h). Alberto continued to weaken slowly while traversing Alabama, before leveling off in intensity and transitioning to a tropical depression over Tennessee. Eventually, Alberto weakened once again and became post-tropical over Michigan early on May 31.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:33 pm

We had a few showers from that one by me, other parts of the metro area got flash flooded though. Might be enough to compel me to mow the lawn again this week, but as of this morning, my front lawn was still shorter than any of my nearby neighbors.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:40 pm

I guess I really need to get around to making those hurricane panels for the sliding glass doors.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:09 pm

USA Today

Some good news from top hurricane forecasters: The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season should be quieter than normal, according to a new prediction released Monday.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University – regarded as the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters – predict 10 named tropical storms will form, of which four will become hurricanes.

That is a sharp decrease from their forecast in April, when they said 7 hurricanes would form. One system, Subtropical Storm Alberto, already formed in May.

If the quiet forecast comes to fruition, 2018 will be a welcome relief after the destructive 2017 season, which saw monsters like Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria tear paths of death and destruction across the Caribbean and the U.S.

"We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity," the Colorado State forecast said. "The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased."
...
"With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well," Colorado State said. The probability of direct hit on the U.S. coast from a major hurricane – classified as a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale – is down to 39 percent from 63 percent.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:23 pm

Hurricane Lane

Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Lane is pushing ever closer to the Hawaiian Islands and has already begun unloading excessive amounts of rainfall on the Big Island. Water from both torrential rainfall, exceeding 30 inches in some places, and battering waves, up to 25 feet on the south side of the islands, are likely to pose the biggest threat.

The resulting flooding may be devastating.
...
On Thursday morning, the storm was positioned about 200 miles south-southwest of Kona on the Big Island and packed sustained winds of 130 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center and are expected to affect parts of the Big Island on Thursday and especially Thursday night, when hurricane-force winds cannot be ruled out.

But torrential rainfall is proving to be the storm’s greatest menace. Already, more than a foot of rain has fallen on some areas of the Big Island, which is under a flash-flood warning. Rainfall amounts of up to four inches per hour are predicted.
...
The storm’s peak winds are forecast to gradually weaken as the storm heads closer to the islands, but it is expected to maintain hurricane strength through at least Friday. Over the weekend, Lane should weaken to a tropical storm and move away from the islands by Sunday.

The storm has some chance to make landfall on Maui or Oahu as it is pulled north Friday, but it is more likely to pass just south of the islands, parallel to the coastline. The exact track has implications for the wind intensity affecting the islands and how extensive the extreme rainfall becomes, but some areas will inevitably face dangerous amounts of rain and life-threatening surf, no matter the storm’s course.

The Meal · Post by **The Meal** » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

I've got a coworker from Samoa whose family has since relocated to Honolulu. He doesn't make it back to see them much more than every five years, but wouldn't you know it that he's there now. He's scheduled to fly out on Sunday. Good that he's there with family (to have first-hand knowledge as to how everyone does), but what rotten luck for what should have been a nice trip to see the family.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:43 am

Wiki

Hurricane Lane was the wettest tropical cyclone on record in Hawaii, with rainfall accumulations of 52.02 inches (1,321 mm) in Mountain View, also ranking as the second-wettest tropical cyclone in the United States, after Hurricane Harvey of 2017. The most intense hurricane in the Central Pacific since Ioke in 2006 and the first Category 5 Pacific hurricane since Patricia in 2015
...
Hurricane Lane was only the second Category 5 hurricane to pass within 350 miles (560 km) of South Point, Hawaii.

Only one fatality reported.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:45 am

Florence

Hurricane Florence is rapidly intensifying southeast of Bermuda and is likely to lash the East Coast later this week with life-threatening storm surge, destructive winds and massive inland rainfall flooding in one of the strongest strikes on this part of the East Coast on record.

If you're in the East Coast threat zone, the time is now to develop or firm up your hurricane preparedness plan and be ready to implement it if necessary.

Conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, including decreased wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures, have improved, and should allow Florence to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane – Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale –later Monday.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:46 am

Olivia

Hurricane Olivia, a storm with sustained winds of 80 mph, is churning toward Hawaii and could affect the island chain as early as Tuesday evening.

Now a Category 1 storm, Olivia was about 825 miles east northeast of Hilo, Hawaii as of 11 p.m. local time Saturday (5 a.m. Sunday ET), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said.

The storm may be near the Hawaiian Islands late Tuesday, the center said, warning that tropical storm or hurricane watches could need to be issued Sunday.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:52 am

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:45 am Florence

Drazzil Mega-Thread: Thinking of Going to Wilmington On Friday

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:55 am

Baroquen · Post by **Baroquen** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:43 am

Agreed -

Florence does not look good for us in the Baltimore / Metro DC / Chesapeake Bay area, though obviously not trying to compare with what NC will have to deal with first. So... much... rain.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:49 am

Yeah, start preparing now OOers in those areas. Worst case is you have a stockpile of stuff for the next time.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:59 am

Man, it looks like Florence is heading straight for Yellowking's front door. Take care, YK.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:07 pm

Florence was just upgraded to a Category 4, with space and time to grow. This one looks bad.

Malificent · Post by **Malificent** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:09 pm

Yeah, I'm in Durham and definitely getting my plan together and making sure I have my water and batteries and such. This is a new house for us (it is 22 actual years old) so I haven't had to weather a hurricane in it. We're hopefully far enough inland for it not to be a problem, but we'll wait and see, I guess.

A nonny mouse · Post by **A nonny mouse** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:17 pm

Yep, I'm in Raleigh and from everything the weather people are saying, and people I know who went through all the others (Hazel, Floyd, Fran) it probably will be a doozy. Supposed to hit as a Cat 4.

It will be my first hurricane, not only in the house, but ever. Grew up with tornadoes, so at least we have time to prepare with this, but also time to worrry.

Anyway, stay safe everyone!

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:19 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:52 amDrazzil Mega-Thread: Thinking of Going to Wilmington On Friday

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:21 pm

Check the flood maps.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:32 pm

USNI

The Navy will send out nearly 30 ships to escape the effects of Hurricane Florence from its bases in Hampton Roads, Va. U.S. Fleet Forces announced on Monday.

Ships from Naval Station Norfolk and Joint Expeditionary Base Little Creek are completing final preparations to leave later this afternoon.
...
Amphibious warship USS Kearsarge (LHD-3) is set to arrive in Norfolk later today to pick up helicopters and supplies for potential disaster relief operations following the storm.

The U.S. Coast Guard also started pre-staging assets along the coast, from South Carolina to the Hampton Roads-region, over the weekend in anticipation of needing to quickly respond after landfall, according to Coast Guard news releases. The Coast Guard assists with rescue operations and with reopening ports closed due to debris and damaged navigation aids.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:14 pm

Captain Caveman wrote:Man, it looks like Florence is heading straight for Yellowking's front door. Take care, YK.

Thanks, will do. Luckily I'm NOT on storm team this year, so I'll be able to stay with the family.

We got all our supply shopping done yesterday, gas tanks are full, etc.

I'm still on the fence about leaving or staying. Waiting until tomorrow to see if the models get tighter. Right now the majority of them have it going just north of us, which is really bad for the Outer Banks but really good for me. They've kept the cone right on top of my house due to a couple of models that still show a SC landfall.

We're supposed to fly out to Universal on the 21st, so right now I'm REALLY hoping we get just a glancing blow that doesn't leave us without power for weeks or throw trees on top of my house.

They've already canceled school for the rest of the week, so being cooped up in the house with two bored kids for the next however-many-days should be fun.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:17 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:14 pm I'm still on the fence about leaving or staying. Waiting until tomorrow to see if the models get tighter. Right now the majority of them have it going just north of us, which is really bad for the Outer Banks but really good for me. They've kept the cone right on top of my house due to a couple of models that still show a SC landfall.

The last update I saw was the 5am model and half of the Euorpean model runs (which is the only model worth anything) had it coming ashore on Myrtle Beach and the other half were in NC. Be interesting to see how it develops over the next day.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:22 pm

As I understand it, this storm is a serious rain-maker, and it's expected to stall after it comes ashore, so flooding is going to be the major concern. If you're on higher ground you might ride it out. If you're on a floodplain, get out of there while you can.

I haven't heard anything about it affecting Boston unless the Bermuda High swings it around harder than expected. At worst our Saturday apple-picking might get rained out.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:29 pm

A nonny mouse wrote:It will be my first hurricane, not only in the house, but ever. Grew up with tornadoes, so at least we have time to prepare with this, but also time to worrry.

Anyway, stay safe everyone!

Yeah, I’ve found the stress in the days before the storm is the worst part.

Do as much prep as you can now. The longer you wait, the harder it is to find supplies. Even if you think you have everything, double check. Nothing worse than waiting to the last minute to put up shutters, and realizing you are out of tapcon screws and all of the hardware stores are out of them.

Stay safe guys. And remember, it’s not that the wind is blowing... it’s what the wind is blowing. (NSFW language)

DOS=HIGH · Post by **DOS=HIGH** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:35 pm

This sucks, I live a few miles inland between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. I'm giving it another day to see what happens, but it I'll probably end up leaving Tuesday night so I can get my 74 year old mom out. I need to get a couple of webcams set up to hopefully monitor the house.

Ventusky I use this website to check ocean condtions for fishing but it's great for graphical info on all weather conditions and forecast. They're currently predicting it to hit Cape Hatteras but mostly stay offshore, still too early to get my hopes up.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:12 pm

I had (have?) a flight booked connecting through Charlotte out to Sacramento on Friday afternoon. Not looking too hot. So I called in and allegedly changed it to an earlier flight through Phoenix. Went from near 100% not getting there to I'd guess 25%. Not looking forward to not being home during a big storm but adult commitments and all that.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:25 pm

DOS=HIGH wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:35 pm This sucks, I live a few miles inland between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. I'm giving it another day to see what happens, but it I'll probably end up leaving Tuesday night so I can get my 74 year old mom out. I need to get a couple of webcams set up to hopefully monitor the house.

Ventusky I use this website to check ocean condtions for fishing but it's great for graphical info on all weather conditions and forecast. They're currently predicting it to hit Cape Hatteras but mostly stay offshore, still too early to get my hopes up.

It's still too early for predicting any exact landfall but the latest model output shows a landfall at Cape fear/Wilmington area at 84 hours. And it's just my non-expert opinion, but something about this storm has had my spidey senses tingling since I first started following it. I fear this will be an epic hit. To be on the safe side I would begin preparations to leave now.

Oh and that staying offshore could mean a slow, meandering storm that will create biblical rains in the right setup. I really hope my hunch is wrong, but this one has me spooked. It does seem it is very difficult to maintain a Cat 4 or 5 that far north and we could get lucky and have an eyewall replacement cycle perfectly timed to reduce intensity right at landfall, so I am pinning my hopes on those two items. (edit: a slow, meandering storm also makes forecasting very difficult in terms of path/landfall).

Here's an insane loop on the eye, it's like a series of chained nuke blasts.

Here are some other good storm radar/imagery links:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oes-16.asp

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php

For model output, this is a great site: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:28 pm

Welp, SC Governor McMaster just ordered the entire SC Coastline to be evacuated on Tuesday.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:35 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:19 pm
Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:52 amDrazzil Mega-Thread: Thinking of Going to Wilmington On Friday

Need to add:

Please tell me why this would be a bad idea

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:38 pm

Continuing the theme of biblical rains, keep in mind this is only model output for a storm still days out, but wowsers:

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:39 pm

I'm in Charlotte, so everyone here who was here in 1989 when Hurricane Hugo hit us 200 miles inland with 100+mph winds is more than a bit paranoid. It really trashed Charlotte, all the uptown skyscrapers had dozens of lost windows, streets blocked for days in some areas, 98% of power distribution system had to be rebuilt, power was out for most people from one to two weeks. Anyway, my brothers both live on the coast in Wilmington but about 4-5 miles from the ocean and plan to evacuate. I'm sitting tight here but have to probably go get my mom to keep her safe depending upon what it looks like the storm will do here.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:11 pm

Gah, apparently they will do a lane reversal on I-26 tomorrow at noon. Was supposed to drive down to Charleston in the morning to meet with my boss. Ah well. Looks like a web meeting!

Malificent · Post by **Malificent** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:15 pm

Enough wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:38 pm Continuing the theme of biblical rains, keep in mind this is only model output for a storm still days out, but wowsers:

Holy crap, that's a lot of rain.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:18 pm

Imagine if it actually came down in those colors.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:52 pm

Good luck, everybody!

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:50 pm

That disturbance in the Gulf is looking increasingly interesting. It might provide some steering to get the storm the hell away from CONUS, here's hoping!

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:09 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Imagine if it actually came down in those colors.

Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
I only wanted to see you
Bathing in the purple rain

A nonny mouse · Post by **A nonny mouse** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:42 pm

msteelers wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:29 pm
A nonny mouse wrote:It will be my first hurricane, not only in the house, but ever. Grew up with tornadoes, so at least we have time to prepare with this, but also time to worrry.

Anyway, stay safe everyone!
Yeah, I’ve found the stress in the days before the storm is the worst part.

Do as much prep as you can now. The longer you wait, the harder it is to find supplies. Even if you think you have everything, double check. Nothing worse than waiting to the last minute to put up shutters, and realizing you are out of tapcon screws and all of the hardware stores are out of them.

Stay safe guys. And remember, it’s not that the wind is blowing... it’s what the wind is blowing. (NSFW language)

Oh definitely preparing. I took off early from work today to make sure the chainsaw would run, ratchet strapped the bee hives down to the stands, we got extra non perishables yesterday. Everything we can think of. I'm sure there will be something but we covered all the list items that we use. No animals or infants or meds, so lucky that way. No storm shutters but plastic & duct tape if needed. I would rather have something and not need it than be all casual. I almost splurged on a Stihl chainsaw but they had a strict "storm no return policy" and my wife would have killed me!

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:29 pm

Unless we see a significant change in the forecast, chances are we're going to hit my dad's place in Charlotte. Not that they're completely out of the woods, but he's got a generator and plenty of room. My dad worked the aftermath of Katrina, and his horror stories convinced me to get the heck out of Dodge.

My major concern is that our house has 8 or 9 good sized pine trees around it. Chances are REALLY high one or more of them are coming down if this thing gets anywhere close. Risking a tree strike on a kid when we have free lodging 4 hours inland would be stupid.