2018 Hurricane Season

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:01 pm

Mandatory evacuations starting as far north as Hampton Roads, Virginia.

My mom is on her way to DC tomorrow for an already planned visit. My dad and brother won't be leaving even though they're in the evacuation zone.

I do hope Virginia is being overly cautious about this one.

Baroquen · Post by **Baroquen** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:48 pm

I didn't realize we had so many OO-ers down in the Carolina area. Stay safe everyone!

Z-Corn · Post by **Z-Corn** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:33 pm

Yeah, take care and be safe all.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:43 pm

Mandatory evacuations along the entire SC coast as well, which I think is a bit overly cautious. I would be pissed if I lived in Beaufort or Hilton Head, which are well below the track of the storm. And the modeling has already changed slightly today moving it northward.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:31 pm

Rain, wind, and surge are issues well outside of the eye track. And the local weather guy said the warm water may push it to category 5.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:43 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:31 pm local weather guy said the warm water may push it to category 5.

Well, dookiechute. I had not heard that. I hope this is not another Hugo.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:47 pm

My dentist is spending his honeymoon on Hilton Head this week. Was spending his honeymoon.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:48 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:43 pmWell, dookiechute. I had not heard that. I hope this is not another Hugo.

It could be worse:

As Hurricane Florence continues its charge toward the southeastern coast of the United States, it now almost certainly will make landfall in North or South Carolina on Thursday. As of 5 p.m. Monday, Florence’s maximum sustained winds had approached 140 miles an hour. The most recent update from the National Hurricane Center said that Florence is expected to strengthen even further, and to retain its status as an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” through Thursday.

If Florence strikes North Carolina at its current classification, Category 4, it would be only the third to do so in recorded history, and the first to do so this early in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from the beginning of June to the end of November. It would be the 11th major hurricane to make landfall along the southeastern Atlantic coast, excluding Florida.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:53 pm

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:20 am

Eyewall replacement cycle has been going on for awhile, but really picking up steam now. I hope this isn't the last one before shore or even better it somehow obliterates the cane.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:16 am

This could be bad, darn... stay safe people in the area

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:30 am

We're currently packing as if we won't have a house to come back to. Hoping that's not the case, but we have to prep for the worst. Very sobering to look around your house and try to figure out what you can't afford to lose that will also fit in a car with two kids and two cats.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:40 am

What area are you from?

Keep us posted.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:00 am

Unagi wrote:What area are you from?

We're in Wilmington.

I still think the storm is going to hit north of us. The model consensus is north up the coast a bit, but I'm doubtful we'll get out of the cone before landfall. I've been reading a lot of weather blogs, looking at a lot of steering patterns and this and that, and there's still a good possibility it hits well above us. The European model has been uncharacteristically crappy for this storm, and has consistently pegged it farther south. Almost every other model is north of it. The NHC weights it heavily which is why they've had to keep shifting the cone north over the past few days as the ECMWF becomes the outlier.

Even so, it's a big storm and it's going to be a really close call no matter what. And who knows what the flooding is going to do. I'm just really hoping we get a glancing blow, the big winds stay well off to the NE, and we come back to just having to do some yard work.

At any rate, I'll be safe - we are definitely getting out of town this afternoon or tonight. Good luck to all my fellow SC/NC/VA OOers. Take care of the family, the stuff is just stuff and we all have too much of it anyway.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:10 am

How does your work hand this (or others' stories you've heard)

Personal vacation time being taken to handle this? or do companies give people time-off?

In any case, hope it's all for nothing and you come home to just have a car to unpack.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:21 am

I'm pretty fortunate in that I work for a hospital, so this all falls under their emergency plan. We have storm teams (rotated with every storm), so those people will be locked on site for the duration of the storm and will be the essential staff that keeps things running. These folks are expected to be the only employees on site for 7 days.

Everyone else (including me, this time), will still be paid for their regular hours even though we won't be working. The expectation is that we will evacuate. We will only be charged PDO if we are called back into work and are unable/unwilling to make it. However, I've never seen them call people back in unless road conditions were safe.

My wife, on the other hand, works for the county and I really don't know how they handle it since we haven't been through a storm of this magnitude since she started working there. I'm hoping since her job falls under state government that they'll compensate her, but that's an unknown. She has a ton of PDO saved up though, so even if she's forced to take vacation for a week or two it's not the end of the world.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:47 am

Latest forecast assumes that Flo will stall over the Carolinas for at least a couple of days, giving us a dry and sunny Saturday, so apple-picking is still a Go. We can all take a deep breath.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:50 am

$iljanus wrote: ↑Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:09 pm
Isgrimnur wrote:Imagine if it actually came down in those colors.
Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
I only wanted to see you
Bathing in the purple rain

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:59 am

With that predicted left hook after making landfall, now I'm worrying about Charlotte. That's a lot of asphalt and concrete for rain to cause more than just a little problem (I guess we all remember what happened in Houston with a similar circumstance).

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:35 am

Yeah, apparently Flo heard of our plans....

My dad is on the western side of Charlotte, but it still means we're going to get more nastiness than expected should it keep this track.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:02 pm

I'm sure you know this, but what I learned when going through a hurricane on the coast: move everything you can't take with you to the second floor of your house (if you have a second floor, that is). Just doing that would've saved me a lot of grief after my place got 6" of seawater covering the first floor during Matthew.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:25 pm

They are showing a foot of rain to TN even. 3'+ in the Carolinas.

A nonny mouse · Post by **A nonny mouse** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:52 pm

YellowKing wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:21 am I'm pretty fortunate in that I work for a hospital, so this all falls under their emergency plan. We have storm teams (rotated with every storm), so those people will be locked on site for the duration of the storm and will be the essential staff that keeps things running. These folks are expected to be the only employees on site for 7 days.

Everyone else (including me, this time), will still be paid for their regular hours even though we won't be working. The expectation is that we will evacuate. We will only be charged PDO if we are called back into work and are unable/unwilling to make it. However, I've never seen them call people back in unless road conditions were safe.

My wife, on the other hand, works for the county and I really don't know how they handle it since we haven't been through a storm of this magnitude since she started working there. I'm hoping since her job falls under state government that they'll compensate her, but that's an unknown. She has a ton of PDO saved up though, so even if she's forced to take vacation for a week or two it's not the end of the world.

Unfortunately State of North Carolina and the counties are separate as far as vacations/PDO/paid time off. For me as a salaried State employee, if the museum is not open due to inclement weather (whether that be a hurricane or snow storm) we have to take vacation or any other saved time. IF you do not have saved time, you can work it off as adverse make up, but they are REALLY strict and audit those who do try that. Obviously there have been many not-so-honest people pulling a fast one. Hourly employees have different rules all together and just do not get paid for time they do not work, AFAIK.

So I would not worry about it if she has PDO saved or due. Use the time. Just stay safe! I'm going to use time when my son is out of school.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:01 pm

More and more models are hinting at a stall right on the coast. This could really devastate the coast, but the storm should drop in intensity as it stalls interacting with land (the European model shows Cat 1/2 by the end of the stall) and then that would hopefully mean less biblical rains for the interior. Stay tuned...

Jag · Post by **Jag** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:14 pm

Stay safe everyone. Having lived through many of these monsters, more than happy to offer any advice.

BTW, this model forecast is crazy.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:15 pm

The Snarl is coming.

TheMix · Post by **TheMix** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:45 pm

That would not be good.

Z-Corn · Post by **Z-Corn** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:54 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:47 am Latest forecast assumes that Flo will stall over the Carolinas for at least a couple of days, giving us a dry and sunny Saturday, so apple-picking is still a Go. We can all take a deep breath.

I'm kinda having survivors remorse knowing that the stationary high pressure system over us is giving us BEAUTIFUL early fall weather and is also what is going to cause the hurricane to stall over land and dump Biblical amounts of rain on all y'all.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:12 pm

Z-Corn wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:54 pm
Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:47 am Latest forecast assumes that Flo will stall over the Carolinas for at least a couple of days, giving us a dry and sunny Saturday, so apple-picking is still a Go. We can all take a deep breath.
I'm kinda having survivors remorse knowing that the stationary high pressure system over us is giving us BEAUTIFUL early fall weather and is also what is going to cause the hurricane to stall over land and dump Biblical amounts of rain on all y'all.

Boston.com tells me that we will experience no impact whatsoever from this storm. Central MA west to the Berkshires might get some showers Sunday or Monday. Then other sources tell me that meteorologists just don't know what's it's going to do after it makes landfall and starts to break down, and I wonder how boston.com can be so smug. I was kinda hoping for some good (but harmless!) thunderstorms later on.

Unless the media are in one of their feedback frenzies it is going to be one for the history books, and I'm grateful to miss out on that.

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:31 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:10 am How does your work hand this (or others' stories you've heard)

Personal vacation time being taken to handle this? or do companies give people time-off?

I work from home in Durham for a company based in IL. They asked me if I wanted Friday off, though I would have to take PTO. I don't really have PTO available, so I told them I'll take my chances. We'll see if I keep power through my shift.

paulbaxter · Post by **paulbaxter** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:34 pm

Also, we've been having a fair amount of rain already this week, so flooding is pretty much inevitable in any low parts of NC.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:41 pm

NOAA forecast as of 11pm still has Florence coming in around Wilmington, but rather than tracking north towards Raleigh, it looks to track along the NC/SC state line towards Charlotte. Looks like I am in the inland bullseye.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:31 am

Yikes. The coast is going to get hammered with hurricane winds for what looks like a couple of days, and tons of rain will fall. I'm more worried about the rain than I am the wind. Stay safe guys.

Lorini · Post by **Lorini** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:37 am

You folks stay safe!!!!!

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:50 am

Something I read about last year that might be useful https://observer.com/2017/08/zello-app- ... ssistance/

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:02 am

When the cone of uncertainty becomes a circle, you have issues. Harvey taught me that.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:58 am

Storm is getting very close to the coast and just want to wish everyone a safe and secure time during it all. Be safe, hope your homes are well afterwards, and please remember your pets. Dont leave them tied up.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:12 pm

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:58 am Storm is getting very close to the coast

Like I'm going to fall for this line again, I'm still not sure this thing won't end up in central Florida somehow. I'm hoarding gasoline as of two hours ago. Since our provider is Duke Energy way down here, I wonder what might happen as far south as Florida.

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:50 pm

Daehawk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:58 am Storm is getting very close to the coast and just want to wish everyone a safe and secure time during it all. Be safe, hope your homes are well afterwards, and please remember your pets. Dont leave them tied up.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

I can't be the only one playing the Jaws theme in my head as I watch that.

Stay safe everyone, this thing looks nasty.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:23 pm

Anyone else notice the storm is counterclockwise but that closest outer band of rain is clockwise?