2018 Hurricane Season

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Holman
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Holman »

Stay safe, everyone! Seriously.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Is it just me, or is the NWS telling us that the Carolinas are fucked?

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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The report I just saw says the storm is speeding up and so rain totals are dropping. The center is still projected to go right over Greenville SC, but we're down to likely 2" of rain. Yay!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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stessier wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:05 am The report I just saw says the storm is speeding up and so rain totals are dropping. The center is still projected to go right over Greenville SC, but we're down to likely 2" of rain. Yay!
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:33 pm Is it just me, or is the NWS telling us that the Carolinas are fucked?

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I heard NSFW said to expect the deep penetration in to the Carolinas.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Holman wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:45 am
stessier wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:05 am The report I just saw says the storm is speeding up and so rain totals are dropping. The center is still projected to go right over Greenville SC, but we're down to likely 2" of rain. Yay!
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I tried, but I don't get it.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by TheMix »

I assumed someone was building a replica of Stonehenge and used " instead of '. (i.e. inches instead of feet)

Which I took to mean that Greenville is actually supposed to get 2 feet of rain, not 2 inches.

But that was just a wild guess.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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TheMix wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:24 am I assumed someone was building a replica of Stonehenge and used " instead of '. (i.e. inches instead of feet)
Yup, it's a scene from Spinal Tap.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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stessier wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:20 am
Holman wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:45 am
stessier wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:05 am The report I just saw says the storm is speeding up and so rain totals are dropping. The center is still projected to go right over Greenville SC, but we're down to likely 2" of rain. Yay!
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I tried, but I don't get it.
Sorry to be opaque!

Yes, it's about the slip of " (inches) for ' (feet), which features in Spinal Tap's Stonehenge set design...
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TheMix
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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I came close to guessing that. It's been a long time since I saw Spinal Tap. But I had this feeling that I'd seen that scene. :)

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by McNutt »

Famous scene where a designer was tasked to build a Stonehenge stage prop. The band manager (on the left) loves it and can't wait to see the real thing. The designer says this is the real thing and shows him the napkin where the guitarist had written 15" next to the design.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

What's amazing is that the joke just gets better and better the more it is explained.

Stay safe OOers.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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live in the ocean ... it wasn't that bad like 5 minutes ago
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Holman »

Scrolling back a bit, it looks like the flag in that video began tearing apart about 15 minutes ago.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Lorini »

Question for you folks facing hurricanes: Should officials go out of their way to get people to leave who don't want to leave? My gut says they should ignore them but I've never lived through a hurricane and my relatives are all on this coast, so I could be missing something.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Lorini wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:23 pm Question for you folks facing hurricanes: Should officials go out of their way to get people to leave who don't want to leave? My gut says they should ignore them but I've never lived through a hurricane and my relatives are all on this coast, so I could be missing something.
I would support maximum facilitation of evacuation (busing and trucking for those without cars, etc) but not go as far as arresting people determined to stay put.

I would imagine that coaxing people to leave and helping them do it is cheaper than rescuing them after they don't.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Pyperkub »

Wow.
To do this, the researchers took the current state of the world on Tuesday, dropped that into their model as a starting point, and pressed play to simulate ahead to Sunday. For a comparison simulation, they took those starting conditions and essentially subtracted out global warming. In this counterfactual world, the storm looks significantly different.

Hurricanes are fueled by energy from the evaporation of warm seawater, so it’s no surprise that warmer sea surface temperatures should give the storm a boost. The size of the boost in this case is pretty remarkable, though. The model analysis showed the real-world Florence dumping 50 percent more rain near the coast than it would in a world without human-caused warming.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Lorini wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:23 pm Question for you folks facing hurricanes: Should officials go out of their way to get people to leave who don't want to leave? My gut says they should ignore them but I've never lived through a hurricane and my relatives are all on this coast, so I could be missing something.
What constitutes "going out of their way?" Depending on how bad the storm is, they will sometimes go as far as going door-to-door and telling people to leave (although they still can't force them). That's pretty rare though. Usually it's just announcements in the media to make sure everyone is aware they should leave and then following up with people who need help getting out. At least in my experience.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Pyperkub wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm Wow.
To do this, the researchers took the current state of the world on Tuesday, dropped that into their model as a starting point, and pressed play to simulate ahead to Sunday. For a comparison simulation, they took those starting conditions and essentially subtracted out global warming. In this counterfactual world, the storm looks significantly different.

Hurricanes are fueled by energy from the evaporation of warm seawater, so it’s no surprise that warmer sea surface temperatures should give the storm a boost. The size of the boost in this case is pretty remarkable, though. The model analysis showed the real-world Florence dumping 50 percent more rain near the coast than it would in a world without human-caused warming.
To which the Republican rubes would respond, "rain ain't hot."
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Pyperkub »

Jeff V wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:38 pm
Pyperkub wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm Wow.
To do this, the researchers took the current state of the world on Tuesday, dropped that into their model as a starting point, and pressed play to simulate ahead to Sunday. For a comparison simulation, they took those starting conditions and essentially subtracted out global warming. In this counterfactual world, the storm looks significantly different.

Hurricanes are fueled by energy from the evaporation of warm seawater, so it’s no surprise that warmer sea surface temperatures should give the storm a boost. The size of the boost in this case is pretty remarkable, though. The model analysis showed the real-world Florence dumping 50 percent more rain near the coast than it would in a world without human-caused warming.
To which the Republican rubes would respond, "rain ain't hot."
No, they respond that it sure is cool with my head buried in the sand...
A new law in North Carolina will ban the state from basing coastal policies on the latest scientific predictions of how much the sea level will rise, prompting environmentalists to accuse the state of disrespecting climate science...

... The law, which began as a routine regulation on development permits but quickly grew controversial after the sea-level provision was added, restricts all sea-level predictions used to guide state policies for the next four years to those based on "historical data."

Tom Thompson, president of NC-20, a coastal development group and a key supporter of the law, said the science used to make the 39-inch prediction was flawed, and added that the resources commission failed to consider the economic consequences of preparing the coast for a one-meter rise in sea level, under which up to 2,000 square miles would be threatened.

A projection map showing land along the coast underwater would place the permits of many planned development projects in jeopardy. Numerous new flood zone areas would have to be drawn, new waste treatment plants would have to be built, and roads would have to be elevated. The endeavor would cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars, Thompson said.
Well, once all the old stuff is washed away, they'll need to do that anyways... note that the article is from 6 years ago.
Last edited by Pyperkub on Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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We bugged out yesterday after the nightmare scenario for the Wilmington area was forecast Tuesday night. Looks like we dodged that but it will be interesting to see what happens. Here's the fishing pier cam on Oak Island about 5 miles from our house. Ocean Crest Pier. Pretty calm at the moment. When I checked last evening there was some guy surfing even though the island was closed, I'm shocked I tell ya, shocked.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Holman wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:29 pm
Lorini wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:23 pm Question for you folks facing hurricanes: Should officials go out of their way to get people to leave who don't want to leave? My gut says they should ignore them but I've never lived through a hurricane and my relatives are all on this coast, so I could be missing something.
I would support maximum facilitation of evacuation (busing and trucking for those without cars, etc) but not go as far as arresting people determined to stay put.

I would imagine that coaxing people to leave and helping them do it is cheaper than rescuing them after they don't.
Here in California if there's a wildfire coming ignoring mandatory evacuations is a criminal offense. Do they prosecute a bunch of old people for stubborness? Probably not, but if they inform the hard heads that they are breaking the law, some of them might comply.

My personal feeling is to let them burn/drown but that's probably not good policy.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Skinypupy »

Dunno what you guys are worried about, it's all just media hype. I mean, this is barely a Category 2 hurricane. Weak! Sad!


Alarmist media at it again. Overhyped Florence. Down two notches to Cat 2 already. Soon be Cat 1. They are still trying to hype it
Seriously, fuck this guy.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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OMG, what a triggered idiot. Surge and rain are still predicted to be catastrophic and KPE is still epic huge. He reminds me of the incident in Italy where scientists were jailed for manslaughter because they did not predict a deadly earthquake which killed 309 people.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Carpet_pissr »

And to think he posted this just a few days prior:

Rick Saccone

@RickSaccone4PA
Sep 10
Lots of flooding in our area. More to come. Hats off to our local fire, EMS and first responders. I saw firsthand how they are working hard through the storms to evacuate citizens and help our neighbors. Thank God we have them out there.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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The stupidity of those in charge in the US now is astounding. Morons one and all.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Enough wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:06 pm OMG, what a triggered idiot. Surge and rain are still predicted to be catastrophic and KPE is still epic huge. He reminds me of the incident in Italy where scientists were jailed for manslaughter because they did not predict a deadly earthquake which killed 309 people.
Want to know what a storm surge can do? Just watch this amazing video from the weather channel. It is terrifying but really incredible. Stay safe please.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

Seems like a good night to watch Key Largo again. :think:
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Pyperkub wrote: Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:33 pm Wow.
To do this, the researchers took the current state of the world on Tuesday, dropped that into their model as a starting point, and pressed play to simulate ahead to Sunday. For a comparison simulation, they took those starting conditions and essentially subtracted out global warming. In this counterfactual world, the storm looks significantly different.

Hurricanes are fueled by energy from the evaporation of warm seawater, so it’s no surprise that warmer sea surface temperatures should give the storm a boost. The size of the boost in this case is pretty remarkable, though. The model analysis showed the real-world Florence dumping 50 percent more rain near the coast than it would in a world without human-caused warming.
:roll:
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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Update - we are still in Charlotte and hunkering down prepared to be stuck inside over the next two days as it rolls past. So far our neighbor is reporting that our house in town is OK, though the back half of the storm hasn't come through yet. My mom has a tree next door that may fall on her house when that half rolls through.

My brother's neighborhood took a bad hit - trees and power lines down everywhere. Of all my friends that are updating on Facebook, the majority have at least one tree down.

If this was what a Category 1 could do, imagine had it maintained strength and come in as a Cat 4.

And yes, those people hyping "alarmist media" should be tied naked to a tree in the middle of a hurricane. As one newscaster I read said, "The difference between a Cat 1 and a Cat 2 is like getting hit by a bus vs a train." This thing was pushing a Cat 4 storm surge and rains, even if the wind speed dropped. This same guy I GUARANTEE YOU would have been raising bloody hell had the news laughed off the storm and it had come through with this much damage. 60 mph winds will take down a soggy pine tree all day long. I've watched videos of this "little" Cat 1 storm blowing gas station roofs off and filling houses in New Bern up to the windows with flood water.

This thing is going to be a major mess, and I'm hoping I can even get home before our trip on Friday.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

Good luck. After getting hit last year my advice is to seek out Publix as your best source of support after the storm.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by DD* »

Scary stuff - stay safe YK (and everyone else!)


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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Skinypupy »

Stay safe everyone.

Not to discount this storm in any way, but this is pretty funny.

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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

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That is from a couple of years ago, at least. I've seen it before.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Skinypupy »

Holman wrote: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:37 pm That is from a couple of years ago, at least. I've seen it before.
Don't think so, since it says Hurricane Florence up in the top right.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Holman »

Ah, thanks.

I know I've seen the exact routine (dramatic on-camera meteorologist, casual backgrounders) in previous coverage.

Ridiculous.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

WaPo running blog
Authorities in North Carolina had linked at least five deaths to the storm as of Friday evening, including a mother and an infant killed when a tree fell onto their home.

The mother and infant were killed in Wilmington when the tree fell over, police said. A third person was also injured — the father, who was taken to the hospital, according to police.

Officials in Pender County said a woman died Friday morning when she was having a heart attack and emergency crews were unable to reach her in time because of downed trees and debris in the road. The crews trying to get to her attempted to move the debris with a front loader, but a tree went through the windshield of the equipment, causing further delays, the officials said.
...
In Lenoir County, local authorities reported two deaths, both in Kinston, a city southeast of Raleigh. A 78-year-old man was electrocuted Friday morning when trying to connect two extension cords in the rain, according to Roger Dail, the Lenoir County director of emergency services; family members found his body. A 77-year-old man’s body was also found by relatives on Friday morning. Officials believe he was killed after being blown down by wind when going outside to check on his hunting dogs, Dail said.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Unagi »

Holman wrote: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:37 pm That is from a couple of years ago, at least. I've seen it before.
It was, and yet it isn't. Sucks because these storms shouldn't be taken lightly but the media can't help but fish for viewers and over play things at any turn they may feel they need to.
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season

Post by Kraken »

Unagi wrote: Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:14 pm
Holman wrote: Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:37 pm That is from a couple of years ago, at least. I've seen it before.
It was, and yet it isn't. Sucks because these storms shouldn't be taken lightly but the media can't help but fish for viewers and over play things at any turn they may feel they need to.
I remember one that had a rescue squad in a rubber boat paddling through what was revealed to be knee-deep water.
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