MLB Offseason Thread - 2018-19

[The Meal]

If you want to redo a draft position to eliminate tanking, I wish a major league would adopt The Gold Plan.

Basically once your team is mathematically eliminated from post-season, any wins you accumulate go towards your draft ranking. Team with the most post-elimination wins (or points, in the case of the NHL), gets the best draft benefit (either position, or lottery ball setting).

[noxiousdog]

If you want to redo a draft position to eliminate tanking, I wish a major league would adopt The Gold Plan.

Basically once your team is mathematically eliminated from post-season, any wins you accumulate go towards your draft ranking. Team with the most post-elimination wins (or points, in the case of the NHL), gets the best draft benefit (either position, or lottery ball setting).

That's brilliant.

[Zaxxon]

I likes it.

[ImLawBoy]

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

[noxiousdog]

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

Sure, but how is that different from today?

[The Meal]

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

That's a bold plan by a GM hoping to keep his job. Sean McIndoe has tackled some of the initial hang-ups folks have when presented with The Gold Plan.

[Lorini]

The concern is definitely tanking.

[LawBeefaroni]

3 batter minimum is terrible. What is the penalty for not complying? What happens if a pitcher tweaks his arm or takes a liner off his face or something? What if he says he tweaked his arm?

20 second clock is terrible. Baseball has a unique cadence and is more like a song than a metronome. Hate this idea.

[pr0ner]

3 batter minimum is terrible. What is the penalty for not complying? What happens if a pitcher tweaks his arm or takes a liner off his face or something? What if he says he tweaked his arm?

I'm guessing the penalty is a trip to the DL? It does seem like the players may be okay with this rule if it's delayed til 2020, at any rate.

[Lorini]

3 batter minimum is terrible. What is the penalty for not complying? What happens if a pitcher tweaks his arm or takes a liner off his face or something? What if he says he tweaked his arm?

20 second clock is terrible. Baseball has a unique cadence and is more like a song than a metronome. Hate this idea.

As the story says, if a pitcher is injured or its the final out then the rule doesn't apply. The rule is to stop the one batter left hander reliever that many teams are carrying.

Well the analytics are consistently saying the game lasts too long, so something has to happen. I personally hate the merry go round of relievers so I'm happy to have a 3 batter minimum.

[ImLawBoy]

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

Sure, but how is that different from today?

Isn't the point of this to prevent tanking? If it doesn't prevent tanking - merely shifting it forward to the front of the season - is it really the best option?

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

That's a bold plan by a GM hoping to keep his job. Sean McIndoe has tackled some of the initial hang-ups folks have when presented with The Gold Plan.

This addresses my question in a much more productive manner. I still wonder whether it will work as well for baseball as it would for the NHL, NFL, or NBA, though. With a much smaller percentage of MLB teams making the playoff, more teams know (or at least believe) at the beginning of the season that they don't have a realistic chance at the postseason.

But how many teams are really out of the race that early? And more importantly, how many GMs are willing to put themselves on the hot seat by throwing in the towel that quickly? Chances are, not many. And the ones that did would have to be especially obvious about what they were doing, which is a good thing. Hey, if we’re going to have teams trying to lose, let’s get it out in the open where we all can see it.

I don't follow the NHL or NBA very closely, and the NFL is kind of known for worst-to-first (and vice versa) transformations (Go Bears!), so this may be a factor in those leagues. In baseball, teams have openly tanked for years now with no negative impact to GM status. The Cubs and Astros are obvious examples of this, and the White Sox seem to be indicating that they're done with their open and obvious tank cycle. Again, the benefits of this Gold System are not as clear to MLB as they may be to the other major leagues.

I don't want it to seem like I hate this idea and am just being a contrarian. I do want to do something about tanking (especially since it's already helped my team ). I'm just not convinced (yet) that this is the best plan for MLB. I don't know what is the best. First team to miss the playoff gets the first pick and then go down from there? Does that punish too much the truly bad teams who aren't trying to tank - they just really suck? An NBA style lottery system except you get more balls for finishing higher in the final standings? I don't know. Maybe it is the Gold System.

Also, maybe this fixes itself in MLB. Because drafts aren't the instant fixes that they can be in the other leagues (Kicks and Browns excepted, of course), and because MLB player development can take longer, it might just be a bigger risk to tank in MLB. I don't have any actual stats on that - just speculating. If rebuilds like the White Sox's fail and you see more teams having the success of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers (i.e., consistent success without tanking, even if not all of those examples have won it all (sorry Lorini)), maybe tanking will go out of style.

P.S. The DH still sucks.

[LawBeefaroni]

The thing is, MLB teams aren't "tanking" to get better draft picks. They are clearing salary to concentrate on hoarding young talent. When that talent is ready, they go on a spending/trading spree and try to win it all. They also have the luxury of playing young players to get them big league experience.

The bad record is just a by product of a slashed salary and/or youth getting experience on a rebuilding team. It's not the goal.



So while a system to redistribute draft picks may have some minor influence, I don't think it would have as big an effect as it would in the NBA or NFL where one or two top picks can transform a team nearly instantly. MLB picks are longer term and far less predictable.

[ImLawBoy]

Part of the salary clearing strategy involves stockpiling good, young talent that is under team control (i.e., pre-free agency), so stockpiling high draft picks can certainly be a part of that. The Cubs big run was based on cheap (but often highly drafted) young position players, pitching rebuilds, and a few big free agent splashes (not all of whom are performing to compensation level, Jason Heyward). That said, I do agree that the connection between tanking and draft position is not as important in MLB is it is in the other big sports.

[Isgrimnur]

RIP Frank Robinson

Decades before Frank Robinson became the Washington Nationals’ first manager in 2005, he already had had one of the most distinguished and trailblazing careers in baseball history. He was the first — and still the only — player to win the MVP award in both the National and American leagues, and in 1975 he became major league baseball’s first African American manager.

He died Feb. 7 at 83. Jennifer Giglio, a spokeswomanfor the Nationals, confirmed the death. Other details were not immediately available.

Mr. Robinson burst into the national consciousness during his first season with the Cincinnati Reds in 1956, winning the NL’s Rookie of the Year Award. In 1961, he led the Reds to the World Series and won his first MVP award.

Mr. Robinson’s big league debut came in the final season of another celebrated Robinson — the Brooklyn Dodgers’ Jackie Robinson, who in 1947 became the first black major league player in modern times. Even by 1956, several teams had not yet integrated; Cincinnati had fielded its first black player only two years earlier.
...
Only two players have won the Triple Crown since. Mr. Robinson, who was named the league’s most valuable player, capped his 1966 season by homering twice in the World Series and won the series MVP award as the Orioles swept the Los Angeles Dodgers for the franchise’s first title. During his six seasons in Baltimore, Mr. Robinson led the Orioles to the World Series four times, winning twice.
...
When Mr. Robinson retired after 21 seasons as a player in 1976, his 586 home runs ranked fourth behind Aaron, Babe Ruth and Mays. (He is now 10th on the all-time list.) He finished his career with a .294 batting average and 1,812 RBI (21st all time). He was named to the all-star team in 12 seasons and was a first-ballot Hall of Famer in 1982.

In 1975, while still active as a player, Mr. Robinson was named manager of the Cleveland Indians, becoming the first African American to hold the field general’s job. He went on to manage more than 2,000 games and was at the helm of the Montreal Expos when the franchise moved to Washington in 2005. He led the team during its first two seasons and also served as a longtime executive with Major League Baseball.

[Lorini]

So sorry to hear that! RIP

[Scuzz]

The thing is, MLB teams aren't "tanking" to get better draft picks. They are clearing salary to concentrate on hoarding young talent. When that talent is ready, they go on a spending/trading spree and try to win it all. They also have the luxury of playing young players to get them big league experience.

The bad record is just a by product of a slashed salary and/or youth getting experience on a rebuilding team. It's not the goal.



So while a system to redistribute draft picks may have some minor influence, I don't think it would have as big an effect as it would in the NBA or NFL where one or two top picks can transform a team nearly instantly. MLB picks are longer term and far less predictable.

True. This is the basic plan of 99% of teams that "tank", just like in football. I do think though that there have been teams in the past that just live off the money they share in the league and don't really try to win. They don't tank, they just don't try or are incompetent.

Of course some teams do everything right, get tons of young talent, only to have none of it develop or guess wrong on which ones to keep.

[Lorini]

ESPN Buster Olney story on tanking in the MLB

It's a great read, recommended.

[The Meal]

I didn't read past the intro, but does that policy encourage a race to the bottom until elimination? In other words, you'd have teams that know they have no realistic shot tanking at the beginning of the year to give themselves a greater chance of racking up post-elimination points?

Sure, but how is that different from today?

Isn't the point of this to prevent tanking? If it doesn't prevent tanking - merely shifting it forward to the front of the season - is it really the best option?

I think the difference is lose-lose-and-lose some more vs. lose-get eliminated-and-then-try-to win. As a fan it's more satisfying to actually root for your club to win games, and as a league it's better to have all member teams finishing the season by trying to winning their games.

Does it prevent tanking? Not in any sense of the word prevent. Does it make the tanking palatable? I'd think it would, but I want to see a major league enact it to fully decide. It does maintain the negative feedback closed loop system of providing benefit to worse-performing teams, which I think most rational sports fans agree is beneficial to a sport as a whole.

I mean you could actually prevent tanking by having a randomly-ordered draft at the end of every season. (Or use the 30-year* prescribed draft order.)

One of my least-favorite NHL writers has proposed :

Allow players to be selected by multiple teams within the first round. Give teams a hard cap with which to sign first-rounders (a quadruple cap!), limit teams to being able to sign only one of their first-round selections and have them place their bids while the brightest teenage players in the world are put up for auction.

_____
* Well, actually a N-year prescribed draft order, where N is the number of teams in the league.

[Lorini]

So universal DH is off the table for this season. Frankly they should decide this season that they are going to do it and then give the NL teams at least one season to adjust. We shall see. Looks like some of the pitcher changes, including the mound change are still on the table for this season.

[Isgrimnur]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

[naednek]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

what were their findings?

[Isgrimnur]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

what was their findings?

Weather in Arizona and Florida are much nicer that many of the places that they came from.

[naednek]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

what was their findings?

Weather in Arizona and Florida are much nicer that many of the places that they came from.

I don't know, looks like SF to me (They play in AZ for spring training)

https://www.facebook.com/Giants/videos/304733900235407/

[Isgrimnur]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

what was their findings?

Weather in Arizona and Florida are much nicer that many of the places that they came from.

I don't know, looks like SF to me (They play in AZ for spring training)

https://www.facebook.com/Giants/videos/304733900235407/

NBC Bay Area

Published 4 hours ago

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Pitchers and catchers report first, and on that initial day on the field, most of the attention is usually on the large collection of starters and relievers taking turns on the bullpen mounds.

But when the Giants stroll out of the clubhouse shortly after 10 a.m. on Wednesday, all eyes may be on the men getting ready to strap their gear on.
...
As Posey leads a contingent at Scottsdale Stadium, Hundley, his trusted backup the last two years and a Willie Mac Award winner in 2017, will be 20 minutes away in Mesa.

[naednek]

Pitchers and catchers have reported.

what was their findings?

Weather in Arizona and Florida are much nicer that many of the places that they came from.

I don't know, looks like SF to me (They play in AZ for spring training)

https://www.facebook.com/Giants/videos/304733900235407/

NBC Bay Area

Published 4 hours ago

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. - Pitchers and catchers report first, and on that initial day on the field, most of the attention is usually on the large collection of starters and relievers taking turns on the bullpen mounds.

But when the Giants stroll out of the clubhouse shortly after 10 a.m. on Wednesday, all eyes may be on the men getting ready to strap their gear on.
...
As Posey leads a contingent at Scottsdale Stadium, Hundley, his trusted backup the last two years and a Willie Mac Award winner in 2017, will be 20 minutes away in Mesa.

I know they are in AZ, I'm making an obviously failed joke, that it looks foggy, which contradicts your statement of nicer weather

[Isgrimnur]

[Lorini]

So Machado finally got signed and got his 10 year deal. Have fun watching him casually stride toward first base Padre fans!

[Jaymann]

Well that was unexpected...

[Scuzz]

I don't blame the Padres for going after Machado. They won't win with him, and he will probably be gone in 5 years but at least the fan base has something to be happy about for a while. I am glad the Dodgers let him go.

And I feel the same way about Harper. Whoever signs him will overpay and he will not help them win.

[Jaymann]

The Padres should go all in and sign Harper too!

[ImLawBoy]

Interesting proposal at 538 regarding relief pitchers. It starts out with the premise that one out pitchers and mid-inning pitching changes aren't really the problem (with numbers behind the assertion, because it's 538). Rather, the problem is too many strikeouts by one-inning maximum-effort guys (OMGs, in the article's parlance). These are failed, mediocre starters who are effective as one-inning guys because they can throw so hard during what they know will be a brief period.

Instead of making pitchers face a minimum of three batters or close an inning, the author proposes a strict 10 man pitching limit, with an "emergency pitcher" on standby. I'll let the article delve into the details, and I've only just read it (meaning I haven't given it much critical thought yet), but I thought it would be interesting given the discussion we've had on rule changes.

[Isgrimnur]

USA Today

Major League Baseball will use an independent baseball league as a testing ground for experimental rule and operational changes — which could include the use of robotic umpires and moving the mound back, an official told USA TODAY Sports. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of specifics have not been announced.

MLB announced a three-year agreement with the Atlantic League on Tuesday, explaining in a news release that the deal will allow MLB to "implement changes to Atlantic League playing rules in order to observe the effects of potential future rule changes and equipment."

Though the two leagues did not specify which changes will be tested, they did note that pitch-tracking technology will be installed at Atlantic League ballparks and MLB could use the independent league to experiment with robotic umpires calling balls and strikes.
...
The use of a computerized strike zone in baseball has been welcomed by some and loathed by others, but commissioner Rob Manfred told The Athletic last year that the technology will soon make it possible. Manfred said robotic strike zones are becoming increasingly accurate. And MLB ballparks have long since been outfitted with the requisite Trackman systems, which use a series of cameras and radar technology to track the movement and speed of the ball.

[El Guapo]

If they can make the technology work, I think robotic umpire strike zones would be great.

[Isgrimnur]

[Lorini]

If they can make the technology work, I think robotic umpire strike zones would be great.

Yeah but only for the strike zone. The update by ESPN this morning did not unfortunately include a discussion on only having 10 pitchers plus one emergency one, I thought the fivethirtyeight.com idea was much better than the must see three batters one.

[pr0ner]

Bryce Harper to the Phillies for 13 years, $330 million, NO OPT OUTS.

Crazy.

[LawBeefaroni]

Bryce Harper to the Phillies for 13 years, $330 million, NO OPT OUTS.

Crazy.

He'll still be under 40 when it's over. Lot of money and a long time but there have been crazier deals. The Mets are still paying Bonilla and will be after the Harper deal is long over.

[naednek]

Giants dodged a bullet.

[El Guapo]

Depends on how you project Harper going forward. If you see him as a perennial MVP contender, then this contract is expensive but eminently defensible. The worry is whether this past year's inconsistency is the new normal for him.

[stessier]

Depends on how you project Harper going forward. If you see him as a perennial MVP contender, then this contract is expensive but eminently defensible. The worry is whether this past year's inconsistency is the new normal for him.

538 has a whole article on how his best is already behind him.