Octopus Overlords

Since baseball season is now officially over, I figure it's time to start this thread.

What's next for everyone's favorite squad, the intrepid Chicago Cubs? Likely a return to the World Series, as is always the expectation for this team of lofty aspirations. So how will they get there? It's hard to say, but here are my well researched, thoroughly vetted, wild guesses.

Lineup:
Murphy's gone - he was always a rental. I can't imagine the Cubs will resign Zobrist, although he had a great, resurgent year. Russell just accepted a 40 game suspension for spousal abuse, and I'd love for the Cubs to kick him to the curb. I'd like to see the Cubs make a serious run at Machado to fill the hole at shortstop. That would give an infield of 1B-Rizzo, 2B-Baez, SS-Machado, 3B-Bryant, C-Contreras. A boy can dream, right?

The outfield is probably set with Schwarber in left, Almora in center, and Heyward in right. If the Cubs don't get Machado, they could always make a run at Harper (leaving Almora as the odd man out, and hurting the outfield defense).

Starting rotation:
Lester and Hendricks are obviously back, and one would hope that Darvish will eventually heal enough to throw a few innings. My guess is the Cubs exercise their $16M club option on Hamels (they owe him $4M if they cut him, so a net payout of $12M is reasonable) and hope that he has one more good year left in him. Then it's a question of whether they try to get Chatwood to learn to throw strikes, try out a minor leaguer like Dillon Maples, or get another free agent (can be a back of the rotation guy with what they already have). [edit]I totally forgot about Quintana, so that's a solid five man rotation if healthy.[/edit]

Bullpen:
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Bullpens always seem hit or miss to me. A guy who was great one year can be a chump the next, and vice versa. It would be nice for the Cubs to get something out of Morrow next year, but it will be difficult to rely on him as a closer given his historical battles with staying healthy.

Dugout:
I know sports writers and talkers like to try to find controversy where they can, and I don't believe this stuff about Epstein wanting to get rid of his hand picked manager who won the World Series two years ago. He'll be back.

So how do you think the Cubs will make it to the World Series next year?

(And saying "by buying tickets" is boring, so come up with a more creative way to insult them, please.)

So who will be the next manager for the Angels? Joe Girardi?

JayHey and Contreras need to go if you want to get serious. No sure there is a way to get rid of them, but they are drags on that team as far as offense goes.

Russell probably isn't gone, Epatein called him "Addy" like 6 times in the presser today.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 pm JayHey and Contreras need to go if you want to get serious. No sure there is a way to get rid of them, but they are drags on that team as far as offense goes.

So the Cubs weren't serious with 95 wins this year? Regardless, nothing you can do with Heyward - that contract is immovable. His offense wasn't terrible this year, but his defense slipped quite a bit. If he can put both together, he's at least OK, although he'll likely never be worth the contract. Contreras is fine. His WAR on Baseball Reference was 2.8 this year, which is fine for a starter.

LawBeefaroni wrote:Russell probably isn't gone, Epatein called him "Addy" like 6 times in the presser today.

Watch how fast they drop him if they get Machado.

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:51 pm Lineup:
I can't imagine the Cubs will resign Zobrist, although he had a great, resurgent year.

Zobrist is signed for next year already.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:32 pm So who will be the next manager for the Angels? Joe Girardi?

Dusty Baker

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:46 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 pm JayHey and Contreras need to go if you want to get serious. No sure there is a way to get rid of them, but they are drags on that team as far as offense goes.

So the Cubs weren't serious with 95 wins this year?

They had the 3rd best team ERA in all of baseball but their R/G was the lowest of all playoff teams except Milwaukee. They were serious but not dangerous, I guess. They were fortunate/gritty to win those 95 games.

BTW, LAD had the best team ERA in baseball and were like 5th in R/G and total runs scored. They probably should have done better than their 92 wins, purely by he numbers. I know that actual are all that matter but it's interesting to note.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:23 am

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:46 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 pm JayHey and Contreras need to go if you want to get serious. No sure there is a way to get rid of them, but they are drags on that team as far as offense goes.

So the Cubs weren't serious with 95 wins this year?

They had the 3rd best team ERA in all of baseball but their R/G was the lowest of all playoff teams except Milwaukee. They were serious but not dangerous, I guess. They were fortunate/gritty to win those 95 games.

BTW, LAD had the best team ERA in baseball and were like 5th in R/G and total runs scored. They probably should have done better than their 92 wins, purely by he numbers. I know that actual are all that matter but it's interesting to note.

Our closer having heart issues really hurt us, I think we lost five games because of that. First it hit him just before game time, and then we went into late innings with either a tie or a lead and lost two of those games. He came back and wasn't himself, and lost three more games. He's still a question mark, having given up a tremendous number of home runs this year, way more than last year.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:40 am

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 5:51 pm Lineup:
I can't imagine the Cubs will resign Zobrist, although he had a great, resurgent year.

Zobrist is signed for next year already.

I pretty clearly said this was a well researched, thoroughly vetted analysis. And you're questioning me?

(But, yeah. I had it in my head that the Cubs originally signed Zo to 3 years, but it was 4. He'll be a very useful bench piece, but I don't see him as an every day starter anymore. I think that was part of the key to his success this year - he didn't play every day, so he stayed rested.)

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:23 am

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:46 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 pm JayHey and Contreras need to go if you want to get serious. No sure there is a way to get rid of them, but they are drags on that team as far as offense goes.

So the Cubs weren't serious with 95 wins this year?

They had the 3rd best team ERA in all of baseball but their R/G was the lowest of all playoff teams except Milwaukee. They were serious but not dangerous, I guess. They were fortunate/gritty to win those 95 games.

BTW, LAD had the best team ERA in baseball and were like 5th in R/G and total runs scored. They probably should have done better than their 92 wins, purely by he numbers. I know that actual are all that matter but it's interesting to note.

Assuming this is runs per game, they were .04 R/G behind Atlanta, .12 R/G behind the Rockies, and .28 R/G behind the NL leading Dodgers. I'm not sure it's instructive to compare to the AL teams who use a DH for most of their games. I can't imagine there's any statistical significance to .04 R/G, and I'm not sure how much import to put behind .12 R/G for a team that plays half its games at Coors. Assuming for argument's sake (because I truly don't know) that there is statistical significance to the .28 R/G delta to the Dodgers, is there any real issue with the Cubs being in the second tier of teams in that stat? Particularly when their pitching is so strong? And then does it make sense to put that blame on Heyward (maybe) or Contreras (who had typical WAR numbers for a starter)?

I read somewhere that the Cubs offense had an inordinate number of games with 0-1 runs scored and 7+ runs scored, and were much lower in the 2-6 runs per game category than most teams. I'm not sure how to solve that feast or famine issue, but it's been around for a while.

Assuming for argument's sake (because I truly don't know) that there is statistical significance to the .28 R/G delta to the Dodgers, is there any real issue with the Cubs being in the second tier of teams in that stat?

.28 R/G is something like 45 runs over the season. Pepper those about randomly and it's good for at least a few wins. There is an expected win rate based on runs for and against. I'll try to find it.

Particularly when their pitching is so strong?

Absolutely. In fact, because their pitching is so strong, runs scored have more leverage to win games. If they're getting blown out on the regular, runs scored mean less.

And then does it make sense to put that blame on Heyward (maybe) or Contreras (who had typical WAR numbers for a starter)?

Well, typical WAR at every position means what, a .500 season? It's not so much that Contreras underperformed as an MLB catcher, he underperformed against expectations as a catcher on a WS contending team.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:43 pm

Assuming for argument's sake (because I truly don't know) that there is statistical significance to the .28 R/G delta to the Dodgers, is there any real issue with the Cubs being in the second tier of teams in that stat?

.28 R/G is something like 45 runs over the season. Pepper those about randomly and it's good for at least a few wins. There is an expected win rate based on runs for and against. I'll try to find it.

Right, but my point is that among NL playoff teams, the Dodgers are a bit of an outlier. The Cubs offense is clearly not as effective as theirs, but no other NL contender offenses are. The Cubs are solidly in that second grouping after the outlier Dodgers, which is enough (when combined with solid pitching) to get to the playoffs. Once in the playoffs, all bets are off.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

Particularly when their pitching is so strong?

Absolutely. In fact, because their pitching is so strong, runs scored have more leverage to win games. If they're getting blown out on the regular, runs scored mean less.

I'm not disputing this point, but I am trying to wrap my head around it as it seems counterintuitive. If you give up a lot of runs, you need to score a lot more to remain competitive. I get the point that each run is more important in a lower scoring game, but likewise you don't need as many runs if you give up fewer runs. I'm going to chalk this one up to statistics that I may never fully grasp.

LawBeefaroni wrote:

And then does it make sense to put that blame on Heyward (maybe) or Contreras (who had typical WAR numbers for a starter)?

Well, typical WAR at every position means what, a .500 season? It's not so much that Contreras underperformed as an MLB catcher, he underperformed against expectations as a catcher on a WS contending team.

It's nearly impossible to have a player overperforming at every position. With the balance of the lineup (including my hypothetical acquisition of Machado), I'm fine with league average at catcher. Add in the fact that he's been somewhat above average his first two years compared to this average third campaign, and the dismissal of Contreras seems hasty. Plus, who are you going to replace him with? Realmuto? I'd take that one, but I don't know that there are a bunch of star backstops available. Even if there are, the Cubs likely could make better use of their resources at spots that are below league average (SS, CF).

Part of this is just my reaction to your initial comments about the Cubs not being "serious" with Contreras and Heyward. I know you walked that back a bit, but keep in mind that the Cubs won the WS in 2016 with those two and made it to the NLCS last year. If the Cubs don't succeed next year, it won't be because they have a league average catcher.

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:50 pm
Part of this is just my reaction to your initial comments about the Cubs not being "serious" with Contreras and Heyward. I know you walked that back a bit, but keep in mind that the Cubs won the WS in 2016 with those two and made it to the NLCS last year. If the Cubs don't succeed next year, it won't be because they have a league average catcher.

Well, in talking about 2019, which we are, it's clear that 2018 has cast some doubt on Contreras as a hitter. Yeah, he's still only 27 next year but they can't rely on him to be a 20HR/80 RBI in 377 AB guy. Coming from the C spot those numbers are huge and they're a big loss if when they are gone (in 2016 Contreras and Ross combined for a similar 22HR/77RBI in 418 AB).

If they want to want to keep him around for defense and a middling bat and maybe hope he gets back to his bwtter hitting ways, great. I just think that Epstein knows all about The Window and doesn't want to leave it to chance.

Machado would certainly eliminate the Contreras factor.

There are thoughts btw that Kershaw isn't starting tonight to let him know that the Dodgers will let him walk if he opts out. It's pretty well known that they want to either keep Machado or get Harper and also re-sign Ryu. They aren't going to also pay Kershaw extra on top of that. It's also well known that Kershaw wants to pitch in Texas so perhaps the Rangers or the Astros will get him.

Aren’t you in the wrong thread?

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:09 pm Aren’t you in the wrong thread?

Contract stuff in there so could go either way.

Was thinking that at least Kershaw post season speculation was OK? And free agent stuff? Or are only people who are fans of teams that are not playing allowed in here???

I’m just giving you a hard time.

Hey dude, your team might get Kershaw! His decision will probably depend on how much he thinks the Rangers will pay him.

Mets owner, there's a reason everyone else is embracing analytics

The combination of the Mets’ reluctance to embrace analytics, coupled with the perception the new GM or president of baseball operations won’t have full autonomy — with team COO Jeff Wilpon calling the shots — isn’t helping club officials in their search for Sandy Alderson’s replacement, according to sources.

Poor Octavious.

Cubs fired hitting coach Chili Davis after one season, so that should take care of the offensive woes.

(I had forgotten that Davis was the hitting coach until news broke of his firing.)

So the MLB world waits to see if Kershaw opts out. According to Scott Boras, Bryce Harper's new contract is already set up and ready to be signed. LA sports press believes the Dodgers will stick with Seager as their shortstop and not seriously negotiate for Machado.

Lorini, I want to personally welcome you to the club

Machado is toxic. I'm glad the Angels already haves Simmons.

The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

Hello everyone!

The main thing I want from this offseason is for the Red Sox to write a big fat check to Eovaldi. Though I tend to assume that he'll wind up signing somewhere else.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

Damn. I guess someone has to play the straight man.

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:24 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

Damn. I guess someone has to play the straight man.

Dressed in that suit, could you be anything else?

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

They had to. If they didn't, they'd have to wait 10 more years to negotiate. It was a no brainer. They went to great pains to explain that their opting out didn't mean they were leaving.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

You realize that the last fatality by assault at a baseball stadium was at Angel stadium right? The media loves to portray Los Angeles as 'urban' in some negative way, but Dodger stadium has never had a fatality because of an assault.

Plus there's nowhere to destroy anything, Dodger stadium is in a ravine with nothing but mountains around it.

Well, the neighborhoods around that ravine are not the best.

It may sound overly dramatic but I would love to see the Dodgers get rid of a few of their free swingers and maybe sign a few guys who could hit for average. Having guys who play 7 positions may be nice but hitting >240 with 20 HRs and a million K's isn't.

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:42 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

You realize that the last fatality by assault at a baseball stadium was at Angel stadium right? The media loves to portray Los Angeles as 'urban' in some negative way, but Dodger stadium has never had a fatality because of an assault.

Plus there's nowhere to destroy anything, Dodger stadium is in a ravine with nothing but mountains around it.

Came pretty close, ask Stow

naednek wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:28 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:42 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

You realize that the last fatality by assault at a baseball stadium was at Angel stadium right? The media loves to portray Los Angeles as 'urban' in some negative way, but Dodger stadium has never had a fatality because of an assault.

Plus there's nowhere to destroy anything, Dodger stadium is in a ravine with nothing but mountains around it.

Came pretty close, ask Stow

That is the Giant fan who was almost beaten to death by Dodger fans?

Scuzz wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:54 pm

naednek wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:28 pm

Lorini wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:42 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:34 pm

ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:27 pm

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:25 pm The Angels declined to renew their lease on Anaheim Stadium (surprisingly the third oldest in the majors). Wonder where they think they can go. Probably a negotiating ploy.

Fourth oldest after Fenway, Wrigley, and Dodger.

You mean they didn't destroy Dodger Stadium after that series loss?

You realize that the last fatality by assault at a baseball stadium was at Angel stadium right? The media loves to portray Los Angeles as 'urban' in some negative way, but Dodger stadium has never had a fatality because of an assault.

Plus there's nowhere to destroy anything, Dodger stadium is in a ravine with nothing but mountains around it.

Came pretty close, ask Stow

That is the Giant fan who was almost beaten to death by Dodger fans?

Yes

Just to be clear, I was joking about the owners demolishing the stadium, not thug wars.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 6:33 pm Just to be clear, I was joking about the owners demolishing the stadium, not thug wars.

I took it differently, thanks for the clarification.

As expensive as everything is around Dodger Stadium nowadays there's no 'bad' neighborhoods left.

Scuzz wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:22 pm Well, the neighborhoods around that ravine are not the best.

It may sound overly dramatic but I would love to see the Dodgers get rid of a few of their free swingers and maybe sign a few guys who could hit for average. Having guys who play 7 positions may be nice but hitting >240 with 20 HRs and a million K's isn't.

Maybe they'll hire Mike Scocia?

Buck Showalter is available.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:18 pm Buck Showalter is available.

I read a really interesting article about the Orioles. Guys who leave the Orioles get better analytics wise and guys who come to the Orioles get worse. We were warned that Machado had bad defensive skills. He was great for the Dodgers defensively no complaint there. The Orioles say they don't understand it, as they have an analytics department just like everyone else and are continuing to investigate.