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Bad news for Boeing

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Moliere
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Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moliere » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:56 pm

A second Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes shortly after takeoff.

And now China reportedly orders its airlines to temporarily halt use of Boeing 737 Max planes.
This is the second crash of the 737 MAX, the latest version of Boeing's workhorse narrowbody jet that first entered service in 2017.

In October, a 737 MAX flown by Indonesian budget carrier Lion Air flying from Jakarta on a domestic flight crashed 13 minutes after take-off, killing all 189 passengers and crew on board.

The cause of that crash is still being investigated. A preliminary report issued in November, before the cockpit voice recorder was recovered, focused on airline maintenance and training and the response of a Boeing anti-stall system to a recently replaced sensor but did not give a reason for the crash.

Caijing, a state-run news outlet that covers finance and economics, said many flights scheduled to use 737 Max planes would instead use the 737-800 models.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:45 am

WaPo
Britain banned the Boeing 737 Max from its airspace on Tuesday, becoming the first European nation to place restrictions on the aircraft after an Ethio­pian Airlines crash killed all 157 people aboard.

The country’s civil aviation authority said the move was a “precautionary measure” because it did not have sufficient information about the crash. Just five Max planes operate in Britain, but those operated by other carriers will no longer be allowed into its airspace.

After China ordered a dozen carriers to ground their 96 planes on Monday — roughly a quarter of all 737 Max in operation globally — authorities in Ethi­o­pia, Singapore, Indonesia, Morocco and Mongolia quickly followed suit, as did carriers in Latin America and South Korea.

Australia, Malaysia and Oman became the latest countries to ground the model a day later, with authorities saying the aircraft would not be allowed to fly to or from their countries pending the investigation.

By becoming the first country to ground the planes, China sent an unmistakable signal: the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration is no longer the only authority in civil aviation worldwide.

The move by Chinese regulators, which was unprecedented for a government that once took cues from the FAA, was motivated by what Chinese officials and pilots said was months of equivocation from U.S. officials and Boeing in response to safety inquiries from China after the crash of a 737 Max 8 in Indonesia last October.
...
Aviation experts say there is a chance that issues with the 737 Max’s new piloting software, the Manuevering Characteristics Augmentation System (M.C.A.S.), and angle-of-attack sensors may have played a role in both accidents, which occurred less than five months apart. Boeing issued notices to pilots worldwide about the M.C.A.S. after the Lion Air crash but has been criticized for not doing so earlier — or more thoroughly.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moliere » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:00 am

Feeling pressure to ground Boeing planes, US Transportation Secretary flies on 737 Max 8
"Thus far, our review shows no systemic performance issues and provides no basis to order grounding the aircraft. Nor have other civil aviation authorities provided data to us that would warrant action," Elwell said in a release from the FAA.

"In the course of our urgent review of data on the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash, if any issues affecting the continued airworthiness of the aircraft are identified, the FAA will take immediate and appropriate action."

While Elwell and his boss are waiting to see data to convince them the 737 Max planes should not fly, more than thirty airlines, several countries and the European Union have decided to ground the planes.

The decisions have created a perception for some that regulators in Washington, D.C. and three U.S. airlines that fly the Max are being stubborn by continuing to fly the Max. Southwest and American Airlines, who fly the 737 Max 8, and United Airlines, which flies the 737 Max 9, have all said they have no plans to take the plane out of service.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by pr0ner » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:14 am

I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Chrisoc13 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:30 am

pr0ner wrote:I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
Iceland hasn't grounded them. They aren't part of the eu. They are flying them on us flights but not European flights. I'm going in August, the only reason I'm keeping track.


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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Montag » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:32 am

pr0ner wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:14 am
I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
Vacation or business. I would like to to go there someday.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:44 am

My minion went to Iceland last year. Supposedly flights are or were very cheap to get there from CONUS.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Chrisoc13 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:51 am

Montag wrote:
pr0ner wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:14 am
I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
Vacation or business. I would like to to go there someday.
We're going on vacation. Renting a camper van for a week and driving around the island. It's reasonably cheap to get there but... If you fly with an Icelandic carrier they charge for most everything.

Also if you go in the summer the flights aren't as cheap and driving around the island is not the best idea in winter when the flights are cheap. But in winter you can go from Boston for like $150 round trip. Of course it's winter so... Yeah.

We're going in early August which should be ideal.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moat_Man » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:30 pm

Hold the line
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by The Meal » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:47 pm

Boeing 737-900 flight scheduled for 7:50 am 3/14/2019. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by pr0ner » Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:54 pm

Montag wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:32 am
pr0ner wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:14 am
I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
Vacation or business. I would like to to go there someday.
Vacation. Going for a week.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Max Peck » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:34 pm

Reuters reporting mentions in passing that there have been at least a couple of other 737 Max nose-down incidents in addition to the two actual crashes.
In November, two incidents were reported to the NASA-run Aviation Safety Reporting Database that involved problems in controlling the 737 MAX at low altitude just after take-off with autopilot engaged, according to documents first published by the Dallas Morning News and verified by Reuters.

“We discussed the departure at length and I reviewed in my mind our automation setup and flight profile but can’t think of any reason the aircraft would pitch nose down so aggressively,” one pilot said.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by gilraen » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:38 pm

Chrisoc13 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:30 am
pr0ner wrote:I'm supposed to fly on a Max 9 to Iceland in a couple months. I wonder if Icelandair will change the plane over to a 767 or if Boeing planes will no longer be grounded then.
Iceland hasn't grounded them. They aren't part of the eu. They are flying them on us flights but not European flights. I'm going in August, the only reason I'm keeping track.
Icelandair already grounded them.

Heard on the news a few minutes ago that the U.S. is about to ground them as well...finally.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:03 pm

Yeah, US now too.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by gilraen » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:07 pm

The Meal wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Boeing 737-900 flight scheduled for 7:50 am 3/14/2019. Fingers crossed.
Uhhm...yeah, you might need some serious luck with that. Between the blizzard today canceling thousands of flights across the region, and all those planes that have just been taken out of service, I'm guessing the ripple effect is going to be nightmarish for the next few days.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by pr0ner » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:12 pm

The Meal wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Boeing 737-900 flight scheduled for 7:50 am 3/14/2019. Fingers crossed.
At least that's not one of the 737 MAX planes.

Though I think your weather will be more of an issue!
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Bad news for Boeing

Post by Chrisoc13 » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:45 pm

I'm guessing this will only be a few weeks before they are up flying again. Thankfully it's not that many planes so it will probably be overcome with minor workarounds. Guess we will see.

None of my upcoming flights were on one, but I do get to finally fly on a dreamliner next month.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by The Meal » Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:58 am

pr0ner wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:12 pm
The Meal wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Boeing 737-900 flight scheduled for 7:50 am 3/14/2019. Fingers crossed.
At least that's not one of the 737 MAX planes.

Though I think your weather will be more of an issue!
After I made my post, I went and researched the difference between the two. You're right that the 737 MAXes getting pulled from circulation is not affecting today's travel.
gilraen wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:07 pm
Uhhm...yeah, you might need some serious luck with that. Between the blizzard today canceling thousands of flights across the region, and all those planes that have just been taken out of service, I'm guessing the ripple effect is going to be nightmarish for the next few days.
As of right now we're only on a 4-hour flight delay (now scheduled to depart at noon). But my experience is that the first delay begets the second delay...

I'm up early to finish the job of clearing our driveway for our departure. Put in two hours last night (with MHS and daughter's help) and expect another hour or so this morning. Actually at the moment I'm procrastinating from beginning that exact job...
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by TheMix » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:25 am

Took care of mine yesterday afternoon. Really glad I went for the 2 stage snow blower. Even so, a couple of times it bounced off the accumulated pile of slush and took a couple passes. Shoveling that mess would definitely have been back-breaking.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by McNutt » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:06 am

My flight Saturday is canceled. Pretty sure it was due to the grounding. Ugh.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Daehawk » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:18 am

Being slightly inconvenienced to possibly save yours and other's lives shouldn't be a problem :)
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by McNutt » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:22 am

So I should be happy that my flight was canceled and that my vacation plans are screwed?

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moliere » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:46 pm

How the Bizarre Economics of Airplanes Raises the Stakes of the Boeing Fallout
The grounding will likely hurt Boeing, whose shares are down after the Ethiopian Airlines crash and whose sales might take a hit. It will likely hurt airlines, which now have fewer seats with which to shuttle customers around the country and the world. And it will likely hurt passengers, who might have to adjust their schedule and, in some cases, their spending. But most notable is the scale of it all: Depending on the duration of the grounding, it could cost all involved parties billions of dollars.

Start with Boeing. The price of the company’s stock fell more than 10 percent, which represented nearly $30 billion of the company’s market value, in the days after the crash. One of investors’ worries is that the reputation of the 737 Max—which was also involved in a crash last fall in Indonesia—is now tarnished to the point that it will hurt demand for the plane. This is no small concern: The 737 Max, a jet that costs more than $100 million, is Boeing’s all-time best-selling aircraft, and the company is lined up to sell several thousand more. If airlines cancel their orders, Boeing would stand to lose billions of dollars.
...
Volodymyr Bilotkach, an economist at Newcastle University and the author of The Economics of Airlines, says that if cancellations do materialize, Boeing likely doesn’t have a great Plan B, but neither does anyone else. The airplane-building industry, he says, is an “effective duopoly,” meaning it’s dominated by two suppliers: “There is no way Airbus”—the other half of the duopoly—“will be able to come to the rescue, as that manufacturer’s order book is also not empty.” Indeed, one analyst who follows Boeing closely told Bloomberg earlier this week that his firm didn’t see “meaningful long-term risk” for the company. (Bilotkach says it’s possible that instead of taking their business elsewhere, some airlines might opt for older Boeing-made models with safer records.)

Airlines—Boeing’s customers—are not in a great position either. The primary challenge in the industry, says Clifford Winston, an economist at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution, is how far in advance airlines have to decide how large their fleet should be at any given time. “A plane takes a long time to make,” he says—sometimes a year or longer, and even buying used planes can take a while. Airlines’ task, in essence, is to guess how many people want to go from, say, Nashville to Denver on this day next year, and then buy a bunch of elaborate, $100 million metal contraptions accordingly.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Jeff V » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:44 am

Lucy, we have a very, very big problem.

This suggests a huge problem with QC at Boeing. Airplane manufacturer is not a vendor you can have trust issues with.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by malchior » Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:52 pm

McNutt wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:06 am
My flight Saturday is canceled. Pretty sure it was due to the grounding. Ugh.
Probably - especially if it was Southwest. They are targeting less profitable routes by switching the Max 8s into them and then cancelling them due to the grounding.

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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:00 pm

malchior wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:52 pm
McNutt wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:06 am
My flight Saturday is canceled. Pretty sure it was due to the grounding. Ugh.
Probably - especially if it was Southwest. They are targeting less profitable routes by switching the Max 8s into them and then cancelling them due to the grounding.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moliere » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:03 pm

NASA will now seek competitors for Boeing’s delayed deep-space rocket
In a hearing on NASA’s exploration plans today (March 13), Bridenstine said his agency would consider using privately designed rockets to avoid delays to an exploration mission, called EM-1, that will launch a new spacecraft called Orion on an uncrewed mission around the moon. So far, NASA has spent $14 billion on the yet-to-fly rocket, called the Space Launch System.

This is the first time NASA has conceded that it can accomplish its exploration goals without SLS, intended to be the largest rocket ever built.

“We as an agency need to stick to our commitments,” Bridenstine said. “I think we should launch around the moon in June of 2020… Here’s the glory of the United States of America. We have an amazing capability that we can use right now, off the shelf, in order to accomplish this objective.”

The decision to look at other rockets is a warning for Boeing and the NASA managers of the program that the SLS, long insulated from accountability by political patronage, needs to get back on track. It also means NASA could choose SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket, or new rockets being developed by Jeff Bezos’s space company Blue Origin and the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance, for the mission. ULA also operates a large rocket, Delta IV, but it is being phased out of production.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by Moliere » Fri Mar 15, 2019 7:05 pm

How a 50-year-old design came back to haunt Boeing with its troubled 737 Max jet
A set of stairs may have never caused so much trouble in an aircraft.

First introduced in West Germany as a short-hop commuter jet in the early Cold War, the Boeing 737-100 had folding metal stairs attached to the fuselage that passengers climbed to board before airports had jetways. Ground crews hand-lifted heavy luggage into the cargo holds in those days, long before motorized belt loaders were widely available.

That low-to-the-ground design was a plus in 1968, but it has proved to be a constraint that engineers modernizing the 737 have had to work around ever since. The compromises required to push forward a more fuel-efficient version of the plane — with larger engines and altered aerodynamics — led to the complex flight control software system that is now under investigation in two fatal crashes over the last five months.
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Re: Bad news for Boeing

Post by The Meal » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:11 am

The Meal wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 6:58 am
The Meal wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:47 pm
Boeing 737-900 flight scheduled for 7:50 am 3/14/2019. Fingers crossed.
gilraen wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:07 pm
Uhhm...yeah, you might need some serious luck with that. Between the blizzard today canceling thousands of flights across the region, and all those planes that have just been taken out of service, I'm guessing the ripple effect is going to be nightmarish for the next few days.
As of right now we're only on a 4-hour flight delay (now scheduled to depart at noon). But my experience is that the first delay begets the second delay...

I'm up early to finish the job of clearing our driveway for our departure. Put in two hours last night (with MHS and daughter's help) and expect another hour or so this morning. Actually at the moment I'm procrastinating from beginning that exact job...
Did get the driveway cleared enough to get to the airport. What started as a 4-hour delay (announced the evening before) gained another 5.5 hours of delay (announced while we were sitting on the tarmac). We did get off and were able to vacation, but not after earning stiff bodies (between the snow clearing and stuck-in-airline-seat sitting on consecutive days). Nine consecutive hours of sitting in coach is no joke.
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