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2019 Hurricane Season

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Isgrimnur
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2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue May 21, 2019 2:41 pm

Wiki
On May 17, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began forecasting the formation of an area of low pressure south of Bermuda, which had the potential to later develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. On the following day, a large and elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms developed well to the east of the Bahamas. The disturbance gradually organized over the next two days as it moved northward and then northeastward, though it still lacked a well-defined circulation. However, an Air Force Reconnaissance flight late on May 20 revealed that the storm had a well-defined center, leading to the classification of the system as Subtropical Storm Andrea at 22:30 UTC that day.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:30 pm

USA Today
After several quiet weeks, the National Hurricane Center said Monday that there's an 80% chance a tropical depression will form by the end of the week in the Gulf of Mexico.

If the depression's winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Barry.
...
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty warned that "residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and a heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend."

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:23 am

USA Today
Tropical Storm Barry was on track to hit the Louisiana coast early Saturday as a possible hurricane, but the primary danger is not from high wind but heavy rain and a dangerous storm surge threatening low-lying coastal areas and the levees of New Orleans.

At 11 a.m. CDT, Barry was about 100 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, crawling through the Gulf of Mexico at 5 mph. It was expected to shift to a northwesterly track later Friday before heading north and going ashore over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or early Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.

Barry was packing sustained winds near 65 mph, only 9 mph shy of the hurricane designation of 74 mph. Forecasters said it was still possible Barry would remain a tropical storm when it went ashore.

Authorities said the timing of Barry's arrival is critical. "The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline," the NWS said.

If it hits at the time of high tide, the weather service said, water could swell 3 to 6 feet above ground from the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach, 2 to 4 feet from Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border, and 2 to 4 feet at Lake Pontchartrain.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by GungHo » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:39 am

Yeah this needs to be watched closely; I've read reports saying they could get up 20in of rain in localized events. If that happens in the wrong place and as noted, at the wrong time, it could be real trouble for NO.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:30 pm

WaPo
Tropical depression Barry is finally unloading a dangerous torrent of flooding rain in parts of Louisiana on Monday, arriving later than expected.

Rainfall totals have topped 15 inches in parts of southwest and south-central Louisiana, a lot of it falling since early Monday morning, and flash flooding warnings are flying. This area is in a high-risk zone for flash flooding through Monday night that extends into Mississippi.
...
In New Orleans, the combination of excessive rainfall flowing into the Mississippi River and a surge of ocean water from the Gulf of Mexico was predicted to raise the river level to the highest crest since at least 1950. Forecasters feared the predicted crest of 20 feet would test protective levees along the river near that height.

But the worst of the rain and surge eluded the Big Easy as the storm was slow to develop, and the river crested at just 17 feet.
...
Instead of widespread rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches in southern and eastern Louisiana, with localized totals up to 25 inches, amounts were mostly in the two- to seven-inch range through Sunday night, with some isolated amounts (estimated by radar) around 10 to 12 inches.

It turns out that dry air perched over the Pelican State ate away at the plume of moisture attempting to barge inland.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought » Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:02 am

I should really get around to making my preparations for "this" hurricane season. :doh:
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:36 am

This was Dorian's forecast track when I woke up yesterday morning.



It's changed now. The NHC has the storm making landfall about 35 miles north of my house.

Enlarge Image

If you want to track the storm, I like how this page displays the spaghetti models.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:18 am

That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Jaymann » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:44 am

You could always nuke it from orbit.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am

em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.
Where in Florida are you and your mom? Is it North Florida up near Jacksonville?

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:18 am

Latest track has it coming on shore Monday morning as a Cat 4.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by YellowKing » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:56 am

Stay safe Floridians. Our storm team in NC has cautiously started breathing a sigh of relief. But I have family in Jupiter, FL so I'm still keeping a close eye on this one.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:41 pm

YellowKing wrote:Stay safe Floridians. Our storm team in NC has cautiously started breathing a sigh of relief. But I have family in Jupiter, FL so I'm still keeping a close eye on this one.
Jupiter is just south of me. Luckily this storm is staying to the north, which would put them on the weaker side. So unless it makes a big swing to the south they should be good.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:17 pm

The 5pm update still has the storm making landfall Monday afternoon a few miles to my north. But the European model (historically pretty accurate) has the storm doing something pretty wonky. It would go much further south, then make a turn to the north and hug the Florida coastline from Fort Lauderdale all the way up to Cocoa beach. Most of the coast would then see some form of storm surge, and 7+ inches of rain. It would also slow down considerably, and take several days to move through the state.

That would be... not great.

My nightmare scenario would be going to the local EOC to cover the storm for the radio, getting locked in on Sunday, and being stuck in there until Tuesday or Wednesday.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:25 pm

Take plenty of beef jerky and toilet paper. And a snorkel.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:57 pm

msteelers wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am
em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.
Where in Florida are you and your mom? Is it North Florida up near Jacksonville?
I'm about twenty miles above you, but inland in Highlands County.
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:27 pm

em2nought wrote:
msteelers wrote:
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am
em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.
Where in Florida are you and your mom? Is it North Florida up near Jacksonville?
I'm about twenty miles above you, but inland in Highlands County.
Well the good news is that being inland you won’t have as much storm surge to worry about. And your north of the lake, so you’ll be ok if the Herbert Hoover Dike washes away.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:20 pm

Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:36 pm

Yeah, that first M once it makes it onto the mainland is pretty much my house. If that track holds true I’ll be in the more dangerous NE quadrant with all of the tornados.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B » Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:44 pm

Stay safe Florida OOers. Godspeed to you all.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by naednek » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:44 pm

hope you can make it for draft :P

JK, stay safe guys
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:51 pm

If I have internet I’ll be there!

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:55 pm

I got a good chunk of my shutters up, so that’s a relief. I’ll finish most of the windows tomorrow, and leave my bedroom window for the last minute.

It would be really nice to have a pool right about now. Putting up shutters is always a terrible experience.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:33 pm

Isn’t the whole point of shutters that they stay up and you just close them? Otherwise, you’re just putting up boards.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:40 pm

Different style of shutters. Mine are sheet metal. It’s illegal to keep them up. You’re talking about the fancy ones. But even then, there are people in my neighborhood who have them and still take them down after storms because they are fugly.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:41 pm

Image

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:56 am

Forecast models are taking a huge turn to the north. It might not even make landfall in Florida now. Our area last night was projected to take a direct hit... Now we have less than a 50% chance of getting hurricane force winds.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by soulbringer » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:10 am

Lets just hope it keeps on shifting east. Latest Euro model has it basically cruising up the coast and not having any landfall. That said, there will still be significant impacts to the coastlines along the path with storm surge, rain and winds but the worst of the storm if the current Euro track holds true or goes further east will be out to sea.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior » Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:54 pm

Good news for a lot of people. That said, I have an important flight on Thursday morning into W-S, North Carolina. I really, really don't want to have to make it a drive.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by soulbringer » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:33 pm

Latest Euro model run as of 12z is even a little further east. While things could still change, I love the trend away from land.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by stessier » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:40 pm

soulbringer wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:33 pm
Latest Euro model run as of 12z is even a little further east. While things could still change, I love the trend away from land.
Considering reports have it gusting into the Cat 5 range, i agree that avoiding land is a very good thing indeed.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by stessier » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:45 pm

Cat 5 with sustained 180 mph winds and gusts up to 200. And it's slowing down right on top of the Bahamas. They are in for a rough 36 hours.
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by YellowKing » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:28 pm

It's looking increasingly likely I'll be called in for storm team Thursday night. Even if it stays offshore of NC, they'll put us on lockdown until it passes.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Holman » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:25 pm



At the risk of R&P, why the hell is he including Alabama in this warning?
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:40 pm

Because he's a flipping idiot... I just left the area of the storm a few days ago on a cruise. I took a gamble to take a cruise during hurricane season and now I see that I really probably shouldn't do that again. We were at Nassau on Wednesday. RCL close their private island the day after we visited and it's probably getting hammered pretty bad. Looks like it's not in the direct path so that's good at least. Here's hoping that it just glances off the coast and doesn't do a ton a damage. At least all the red states will get super attention if it does. :P
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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:25 pm

Holman wrote:
Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:25 pm
At the risk of R&P, why the hell is he including Alabama in this warning?
Because he's a moron.


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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:33 pm

Good luck to everyone. Just getting the laptop up to date as I type.
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers » Mon Sep 02, 2019 12:50 pm

It's a little windy, with pockets of some rain moving through quickly. We're on the razors edge in regards to how serious the conditions will get. One update puts the storm a little further west, bringing heavier winds to our area. The next update pushes it further east, meaning we'll get tropical storm winds and that's it. And we're just on the outside edge of the cone, which means it's entirely possible that the storm hits us dead on.

It's moving so slowly, at just 1mph. We went into the weekend thinking it was going to hit us Sunday/Monday. Now most of the effects will be felt on Tuesday. It's been hard not to eat all of our hurricane supplies.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Kraken » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:27 pm

That slow forward progress is the reason its track is so uncertain. The steering atmospheric conditions keep changing, and the eye could wobble at any time. Heckuva thing to have parked on your doorstep.

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Re: 2019 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B » Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:20 pm

Unbelievable.


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