Octopus Overlords

On May 17, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began forecasting the formation of an area of low pressure south of Bermuda, which had the potential to later develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. On the following day, a large and elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms developed well to the east of the Bahamas. The disturbance gradually organized over the next two days as it moved northward and then northeastward, though it still lacked a well-defined circulation. However, an Air Force Reconnaissance flight late on May 20 revealed that the storm had a well-defined center, leading to the classification of the system as Subtropical Storm Andrea at 22:30 UTC that day.

After several quiet weeks, the National Hurricane Center said Monday that there's an 80% chance a tropical depression will form by the end of the week in the Gulf of Mexico.

If the depression's winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Barry.
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AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty warned that "residents from western Florida to eastern Louisiana should especially remain alert for an increase in downpours and a heightened risk for flooding later this week and into the start of the weekend."

Tropical Storm Barry was on track to hit the Louisiana coast early Saturday as a possible hurricane, but the primary danger is not from high wind but heavy rain and a dangerous storm surge threatening low-lying coastal areas and the levees of New Orleans.

At 11 a.m. CDT, Barry was about 100 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, crawling through the Gulf of Mexico at 5 mph. It was expected to shift to a northwesterly track later Friday before heading north and going ashore over the central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or early Saturday, according to the National Weather Service.

Barry was packing sustained winds near 65 mph, only 9 mph shy of the hurricane designation of 74 mph. Forecasters said it was still possible Barry would remain a tropical storm when it went ashore.

Authorities said the timing of Barry's arrival is critical. "The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline," the NWS said.

If it hits at the time of high tide, the weather service said, water could swell 3 to 6 feet above ground from the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach, 2 to 4 feet from Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border, and 2 to 4 feet at Lake Pontchartrain.

Tropical depression Barry is finally unloading a dangerous torrent of flooding rain in parts of Louisiana on Monday, arriving later than expected.

Rainfall totals have topped 15 inches in parts of southwest and south-central Louisiana, a lot of it falling since early Monday morning, and flash flooding warnings are flying. This area is in a high-risk zone for flash flooding through Monday night that extends into Mississippi.
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In New Orleans, the combination of excessive rainfall flowing into the Mississippi River and a surge of ocean water from the Gulf of Mexico was predicted to raise the river level to the highest crest since at least 1950. Forecasters feared the predicted crest of 20 feet would test protective levees along the river near that height.

But the worst of the rain and surge eluded the Big Easy as the storm was slow to develop, and the river crested at just 17 feet.
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Instead of widespread rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches in southern and eastern Louisiana, with localized totals up to 25 inches, amounts were mostly in the two- to seven-inch range through Sunday night, with some isolated amounts (estimated by radar) around 10 to 12 inches.

It turns out that dry air perched over the Pelican State ate away at the plume of moisture attempting to barge inland.

em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.

YellowKing wrote:Stay safe Floridians. Our storm team in NC has cautiously started breathing a sigh of relief. But I have family in Jupiter, FL so I'm still keeping a close eye on this one.

msteelers wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am

em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.

Where in Florida are you and your mom? Is it North Florida up near Jacksonville?

em2nought wrote:

msteelers wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am

em2nought wrote:That's not good. I tried to get my mother out on a Saturday flight, but she wouldn't go. I just want to run away and not have to deal with it now.

Where in Florida are you and your mom? Is it North Florida up near Jacksonville?

I'm about twenty miles above you, but inland in Highlands County.

soulbringer wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:33 pm Latest Euro model run as of 12z is even a little further east. While things could still change, I love the trend away from land.

Holman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:25 pmAt the risk of R&P, why the hell is he including Alabama in this warning?