Calling on the opinions of those with knowledge...

[Darkstar One]

Do you think that we will be able to resume larger-scale social gatherings (1000+) by July 1st?

I'm supposed to be going to the North American Bridge Championships in Montreal in July. A couple of thousand people attending. Wondering if they're going to have to call it off.

Looking for opinions.

[RunningMn9]

It's hard to imagine at this point - although I am super hopeful that some level of normalcy has returned by then. I'm supposed to go to Scotland in July, and would really like to go (it's taken us 7 years to get a tee time on the Old Course).

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I am a member of a number of scientific organizations that have their annual meetings in July/August. All but one have already announced they were canceling this year's meetings or at least not meeting in person (there's some talk about virtual conferences but I'm not sure how viable that is). So I would assume your bridge championship will be canceled/postponed.

That said, there's a difference between whether these large gatherings are recommended vs. whether they are officially disallowed. But, FWIW, my governmental department is currently prepping to have to work from home through the summer.

[soulbringer]

While I think it would probably be safe by then, something that large will more than likely be cancelled just due to logistics/cancellation policies of the host venue etc.

[malchior]

I have had every tournament I was going to officiate cancelled out through June at the moment. Mostly out of caution but the one I'm tracking now is Junior Roller Derby Association (JRDA) World Championships which are supposed to be in July in K-Town. I highly doubt it'll happen now. The problem is that the lead up events are all getting cancelled. For the bridge champs, aren't there lead up events that have been cancelled already? What I'm seeing with the big tournaments/events is that the dependencies are overwhelming the sanctioning bodies. They don't know how to maintain ranking, staff the events, etc.

[dfs]

Everything I've seen has indicated that the earliest we should be having large events is this summer. That's if everything goes right.

What happens when the deaths start to really hit? What happens when the hospitals and funeral homes aren't threatened to be swamped but really are overflowing? What does that do to our national mood and how do we recover from it?

[LordMortis]

I think it's likely to happen in June but I have no knowledge, so I guess that makes me an optimist. That's a weird boat to find myself in.

[Jaymann]

Since getting the virus would be a death sentence for me, I am going to self quarantine until 2 months after no new cases. And ultra cautious social distancing after that.

[msteelers]

All of the weddings we were scheduled to DJ at through the first part of May have been postponed already. Most brides rescheduled for either the fall or early next year. But one bride pushed her date back from May 3rd, to May 23rd.

I have some serious doubts that the wedding will be going on then.

[wonderpug]

All of the weddings we were scheduled to DJ at through the first part of May have been postponed already. Most brides rescheduled for either the fall or early next year. But one bride pushed her date back from May 3rd, to May 23rd.

I have some serious doubts that the wedding will be going on then.

One idea I've seen floating around that you may want to pass onto your clients is to have a small private ceremony on their intended wedding date, then plan for a wedding reception sized shindig or vow renewal in 2021 to celebrate the 1 year anniversary. You still get to get married as planned, and you don't have to completely give up your wedding plans.

[Rumpy]

It's hard to really know for sure given the situation is always changing. I go to a yearly convention with 500+ people, which is in early August this year and which has yet to be cancelled, but they're already expecting a far lower turnout if it goes ahead.

[LawBeefaroni]

A 5k I was scheduled to run in June was postponed to early August. I think that's optimistic. Everything else I have through July is cancelled.


We host a neighborhood 5k in October and even that is not 100%.

[Alefroth]

They haven't called it off yet? That's irresponsible.

[gameoverman]

Do you think that we will be able to resume larger-scale social gatherings (1000+) by July 1st?

I'm supposed to be going to the North American Bridge Championships in Montreal in July. A couple of thousand people attending. Wondering if they're going to have to call it off.

Looking for opinions.

In my opinion your question doesn't match your real life situation. Your question about mass gatherings, I think the answer will turn out to be yes, in certain situations.

In real life, elective gatherings that involve travel and other advance planning will have the answer of no. For people to attend any kind of 'championship' there is usually a whole series of things that must be done and prepared in advance. For a big event to happen in July this means some things might need to be done in June and possibly even in May. I don't think that's happening.

[$iljanus]

I would have chosen a too soon to tell option without the optimism choices because we just don't have the data yet due to the haphazard testing in this country.

Since that isn't a choice I chose "not optimistic". Always happy to be proved wrong in this case.

[Daehawk]

I'm supposed to be going to the North American Bridge Championships in Montreal in July. A couple of thousand people attending. Wondering if they're going to have to call it off.

They have bridge building championships?? Why have I not been to one!? Then again a single build could take months depending on size and span.

[Jaymann]

Depends how big your mouth is.

[Unagi]

I'm supposed to be going to the North American Bridge Championships in Montreal in July. A couple of thousand people attending. Wondering if they're going to have to call it off.

They have bridge building championships?? Why have I not been to one!? Then again a single build could take months depending on size and span.

the card game

[Daehawk]

Or the starship.

[wonderpug]

We host a neighborhood 5k in October and even that is not 100%.

Speaking of October, I’d be willing to bet there’s at best a fifth the usual number of kids being allowed to trick or treater this Halloween.

[Kraken]

I chose the "probably not" option because IDK what kind of restrictions Canada has in place. Maybe they'll be in a better place than the US by July. I wouldn't count on them welcoming US citizens, though.

[Jeff V]

the card game

People still play that? My mom taught me how to play when I was young (along with that other popular card game, canasta). I remember neither of them because I was led to believe the last active players died sometime during the Johnson administration.

[Unagi]

I believe it's had a renewed popularity a number of years ago. I don't play, but my sister has a group of friends that do in NJ.

[Rumpy]

I chose the "probably not" option because IDK what kind of restrictions Canada has in place. Maybe they'll be in a better place than the US by July. I wouldn't count on them welcoming US citizens, though.

Yeah, the convention I mentioned has me travel to Vermont, and while everything might be better by then nationally, I have a feeling travel between borders won't be allowed yet.

[Madmarcus]

I have no knowledge but I have an opinion!

No.

Too much travel and logistics. Until we get either a good treatment (so that fewer people are really scared to get it) or a vaccine I can't see something like that going on.

[Jaymon]

In my opinion, It will only be "safe" to resume large scale gatherings after vaccine and immunization towards covid-19 are widespread. And that is many months away, considering that the vaccine still needs to be invented, and then distributed and applied at scale.

[gameoverman]

Haha, whether it's going to be safe or not in July to gather is a whole separate question. I can envision an easing of restrictions, for the sake of the economy, where officials say it's okay to gather but it's at your own risk.

[Blackhawk]

And there are further issues whether than just whether the door is open. Are support services going to be back up and running at full capacity? Will travel? Are people going to be willing to go, or are there going to be mass cancellations? If there are vendors, they may choose not to attend. It's possible the doors could be open without much inside.

[Jeff V]

In my opinion, It will only be "safe" to resume large scale gatherings after vaccine and immunization towards covid-19 are widespread. And that is many months away, considering that the vaccine still needs to be invented, and then distributed and applied at scale.

18 at least. Everything I heard, the FDA will not ease testing requirements, which is probably a good thing because otherwise you might wind up with a vaccine that kills more people than it saves.

[gbasden]

18 at least. Everything I heard, the FDA will not ease testing requirements, which is probably a good thing because otherwise you might wind up with a vaccine that kills more people than it saves.

All we need is a flawed vaccine to further encourage the anti-vax nutjobs.

[Kraken]

18 at least. Everything I heard, the FDA will not ease testing requirements, which is probably a good thing because otherwise you might wind up with a vaccine that kills more people than it saves.

All we need is a flawed vaccine to further encourage the anti-vax nutjobs.

If you're going to inject it into literally billions of people, you have to be sure that it's (a) safe and (b) effective. 99.9% isn't sure enough. Getting there is a long, multi-step process that can fail at any point (contrary to what certain presidents will tell you). There's also a risk that the virus will evolve faster when you start throwing medicines at it, but not much you can do about that.

[gbasden]

If you're going to inject it into literally billions of people, you have to be sure that it's (a) safe and (b) effective. 99.9% isn't sure enough. Getting there is a long, multi-step process that can fail at any point (contrary to what certain presidents will tell you). There's also a risk that the virus will evolve faster when you start throwing medicines at it, but not much you can do about that.

In no way was I disagreeing with anything you've said. I fear that if we rush this vaccine and it causes problems it will hamper all vaccine acceptance long term.

[Kraken]

If you're going to inject it into literally billions of people, you have to be sure that it's (a) safe and (b) effective. 99.9% isn't sure enough. Getting there is a long, multi-step process that can fail at any point (contrary to what certain presidents will tell you). There's also a risk that the virus will evolve faster when you start throwing medicines at it, but not much you can do about that.

In no way was I disagreeing with anything you've said. I fear that if we rush this vaccine and it causes problems it will hamper all vaccine acceptance long term.

Yeah, I was agreeing with you in my longwinded and elliptical way.

[LordMortis]

I think it's likely to happen in June but I have no knowledge, so I guess that makes me an optimist. That's a weird boat to find myself in.

That optimism died in April before Easter, I think, but it's really hitting home as I am watching small events scheduled for October being cancelled, concurrent with the knowledge that I have left the house with very specific get out, get it done, get back home in isolation exactly five times in 8 weeks. Next Tuesday will make six times in nine weeks and the majority of the times I have left he house was so that I could better facilitate others not leaving the house.

[LawBeefaroni]

We cancelled the October 5K.

Our August street fest was cancelled back in March. There's another organization that runs a fest in the neighborhood in June. They moved it to September. This is a very bad idea. We'd normally be happy to watch and learn via the object lesson of what not to do. But it's our neighborhood and the idea of several thousand people descending over 3 days isn't exactly an attractive one right now.

Of coirse if no one shows up, they are out several hundred thousand bucks. Hate to say that would be the best outcome but it kind of is.

[Blackhawk]

I was curious so I looked it up. This thread stalled on March 30th. The tournament in question was canceled 16 days later.

[Jeff V]

Events are starting to be canceled through the end of the year. Most local July fireworks have been canceled as well. Having schools open anytime during the remainder of the year seems unlikely. I'm still expecting a much harder second wave come fall (if not sooner); after a not-so-uplifting live stream with the CIO today, I just home I'm still working (although with rapidly escalating nursing salaries, maybe my wife will make enough to carry the load by then).