
Arthur


Moderators: EvilHomer3k, Bakhtosh
Tropical Depression Three is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday.
Once the system gets upgraded to a tropical storm, meaning winds of 39 mph or greater, it will be named Tropical Storm Cristobal.
"If this occurs before Friday, it will be the earliest in the year for a third named storm on record for the Atlantic basin," CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller says.
The only thing that really serves as a good predictor for a really active hurricane season is if named storms form in the deep tropics, he said. This is an area south of 25°N and east of the Lesser Antilles. "When you get storm formations here prior to June 1, it's typically a harbinger of an extremely active season," he said.
The first two storms this year developed outside of this main development region (as will Cristobal if its earns a name). Nevertheless, most signs continue to point toward an active or very active hurricane season.
Signals for a busy season
It appears increasingly likely that the tropical Pacific Ocean will be cooler than normal or even reach La Niña conditions, which produces weather patterns over the Atlantic more favorable to storm development. And the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remain warmer than normal.
Like most other forecasters, Klotzbach has already predicted an abnormally busy season, with 16 named storms. He may revise that upward with his updated forecast this week. "All in all, signs are certainly pointing towards an active season," he said.
Hurricane Hanna strengthened, with sustained winds of 90 mph, as it made landfall in Texas.
The Category 1 hurricane was moving west at about 8 mph when it made landfall at San Padre Island, about 15 miles north of Port Mansfield, around 5 p.m. local time on Saturday.
Very heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge were currently impacting the south Texas coast, the worst of it south of Corpus Christi, down to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.
While wind and storm surge were notable along the coast this afternoon, very heavy rain and the potential for widespread flash flooding across the Rio Grande Valley is the biggest concern into Saturday night. Rainfall totals over extreme southern Texas to the Mexico border could lead to dangerous flash flooding.
Are you in a potential mandatory evacuation zone? Storm surge might be an issue. Here's a good site for information on impacts, NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage. Look under the Local Products tab. There is nothing issued right now for Charleston, but this is what it looks like for me now. Below is a screen grab of the Wind Threat. The black star is my location.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:42 am Looking like this is going to be my first hurricane in Charleston. Waiting to hear whether there will be a mandatory evacuation; I wouldn't think so considering the projections for the area (mainly heavy rains), but I don't know how cautious they are here about those things.
I like the plywood because if you lose power for a few days it helps to keep the house cool also.
As of the 5pm update, this is a closeup of the storm track near SC.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:42 am Looking like this is going to be my first hurricane in Charleston. Waiting to hear whether there will be a mandatory evacuation; I wouldn't think so considering the projections for the area (mainly heavy rains), but I don't know how cautious they are here about those things.
Yup, and I think we are heading to a hotel inland for the weekend. Not that we expect damage, but we hate being without power.
I'm saving my lawn chair for the weather balloons.
Eek - good luck! At least it seems like this will be a relatively minor Cat 1; I’m sure you guys have experienced worse.jztemple2 wrote:Latest update. The storm centerline track will pass just a few miles east of my house Sunday evening.
Heat index values as high as 105?Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.