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2020 Hurricane Season

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Isgrimnur
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

NPR
Tropical Storm Isaias skirted the east coast of Florida on Sunday and is now on track to hit the Carolinas Monday night.

As of 8:00 p.m. the National Hurricane Center said the storm was located about 55 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Fla. and 385 miles south of Myrtle Beach, S.C. Its maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 70 miles per hour.

South Florida is emerging from the storm with relatively little damage, though local officials had braced for more serious damage including widespread power outages.
...
Isaias could bring 1 to 8 inches of rainfall in areas from Florida to New England in the coming week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It warned that "dangerous storm surge" is possible from the city of Edisto Beach, S.C. to Cape Fear, N.C. The center said water could rise between 2 and 4 feet above ground level along that stretch of coast in the next 48 hours.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

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Isaias has strengthened back to a hurricane and is accelerating toward landfall near the border between North and South Carolina, the National Hurricane Center said Monday evening.

The storm -- which now has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph -- is expected to make landfall as a hurricane around midnight.

The upgrade to a hurricane was expected and the anticipated impacts did not change significantly from what was forecast earlier Monday. Coastal flooding from storm surge, minor wind damage and inland flooding from heavy rainfall is still likely to occur in the Carolinas on Monday night. The threat of tropical storm-force winds and flooding will continue through the mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast during the day Tuesday.
...
After landfall, Isaias is forecast to gradually weaken, but the storm is expected to bring strong winds all along the East Coast on Tuesday, including in Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York. Philadelphia is forecast to see winds of 60-65 mph, while New York will see winds of 65-70 mph.

The storm could bring the strongest winds to New York City since Superstorm Sandy almost eight years ago, Ross Dickman, the meteorologist-in-charge at the NWS office in New York.

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Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Turned out to be a relative nothingburger in Charleston. Rained from about noon to 7:30, but the winds were generally pretty mild. I haven't noticed even any branches down around my place, which has happened on normal storms. We're lucky that it strengthened after it passed us by and that the center of the storm was decently offshore. Also, it passed by before the high tide, so the storm surge was pretty negligible.

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Baroquen
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Baroquen »

While I woke up to lots of Tornado Warnings scattered around Maryland, it's really been just constant rain here. Flooding isn't an issue for where we live, and thankfully the winds have been negligible so far. It also looks like it will wrap up quicker, with not much activity on the backside of the storm. We'll see what happens though.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by stessier »

It was 66F this morning with much lower humidity after the storm went through SC (and I am about 150 miles west from where it made landfall). This is the coolest it's been in the morning in more than a month. Very nice.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Holman »

Baroquen wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:14 am
While I woke up to lots of Tornado Warnings scattered around Maryland, it's really been just constant rain here. Flooding isn't an issue for where we live, and thankfully the winds have been negligible so far. It also looks like it will wrap up quicker, with not much activity on the backside of the storm. We'll see what happens though.
That's the story here in Philadelphia now. It's raining very hard but should let up in the next hour. We'll see some flooding down the hill, but we live on top.

We had a brief tornado warning when radar picked up a rotating storm about 10 miles away, but then it weakened before dropping a funnel on us.
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malchior
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

We're getting battered here in central NJ right now and it's wind doing most of the damage. I heard some trees fall towards the lake by my home. I see a major branch down in one of my trees. My brother in law's truck got flattened by a tree about 20 miles NNE of me. It's worse wind wise the further east you go towards the NJ shore. I'm about 30 miles or so inland so it's not great here.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Sheesh, it's so weird that here in Florida we had such a minimum impact. Hope everyone is staying safe.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Kraken »

It's getting breezy in the Boston area. They say we might see some 45 mph gusts late afternoon to early evening. Little to no rain, though. We're in the early stage of a drought and could use a good soaking.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by YellowKing »

We had a couple of scary tornado close calls when some supercells were picked up going right over our area. Had to hunker down a couple of times, but fortunately they moved through quickly.

No damage here, though it was a wild night with all the noise. Had a Port-o-Potty blow into our yard from a nearby construction lot, but that's the extent of it. We did lose power from about midnight until noon today, but I'll take it.

My sister-in-law's car got damaged by a big branch, had another friend have a limb come through his roof, and had a co-worker's house get some siding ripped off. Aside from that, all friends and family are OK.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

YellowKing wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:26 pm
We had a couple of scary tornado close calls when some supercells were picked up going right over our area. Had to hunker down a couple of times, but fortunately they moved through quickly.

No damage here, though it was a wild night with all the noise. Had a Port-o-Potty blow into our yard from a nearby construction lot, but that's the extent of it. We did lose power from about midnight until noon today, but I'll take it.

My sister-in-law's car got damaged by a big branch, had another friend have a limb come through his roof, and had a co-worker's house get some siding ripped off. Aside from that, all friends and family are OK.
Where are you located?
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YellowKing
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by YellowKing »

jztemple2 wrote:Where are you located?
I'm in Wilmington, so we were about 45 miles from landfall.

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Octavious
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious »

Power has been out since 1. I have no expectations that it will get fixed today based on past experience. So much for the stuff in my fridge, but otherwise it appears we didn't have any damage.
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malchior
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

I just did a walk around and we got lucky. If I were to have a landscaper do the clean up it'd run about a thousand I'd say. I'm working from home so I'll just punch list it through the end of the weekend myself. I've got lots of branches down but luckily didn't hit or damage anything of value. I just spent 2 hours dredging branches/leaves from the pool.

I surveyed the neighborhood and its pretty bad but not Sandy bad. It is like 50% of Sandy which hit us very hard. I don't see any trees through houses like I did during Sandy. Anyway, two houses down had a tree destroy the brand new landscaping/patio they had installed. They aren't home yet so sucks for them when they get back. A house on the corner had a tree come down and take out a deck in the back and *another tree* take out some of the landscaping in the front of the house. They are new to the neighborhood so welcome. I'm hearing about a lot of road closures and power outages. In fact, one of the utilities PSEG has an outage tracker that is suffering an outage (probably via customer DDOS).
Octavious wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 4:51 pm
Power has been out since 1. I have no expectations that it will get fixed today based on past experience. So much for the stuff in my fridge, but otherwise it appears we didn't have any damage.
Not a big surprise since your power grid has developing nation reliability levels. What is another day or two when you had 6 or 7 weeks of outages over the last decade. :?

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

My corner of NJ is seemingly ok though the rain and wind were pretty nuts for a while. I think my location might have been right on the rain/wind border as it felt like we had alternating periods of both but neither were too crazy. Power is out all around me, but ours never blinked. That's normal though and instead our power will just randomly go out on a sunny day. Definitely seems to be much worse East and South.

Stay safe OOers.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

YellowKing wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:59 pm
jztemple2 wrote:Where are you located?
I'm in Wilmington, so we were about 45 miles from landfall.
This made me smile... we have vacationed in both Wilmingtons on the East Coast :D. So, Wilmington, Delaware? Or North Carolina? ? I'm not sure which Wilmington was near landfall, I think it was the Delaware one.

Funny thing, got almost nothing from Isaias, but this afternoon we had thunderstorms for about three hours straight, got about three inches of rain, my pool is now a horizon pool :D
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:42 pm
Not a big surprise since your power grid has developing nation reliability levels. What is another day or two when you had 6 or 7 weeks of outages over the last decade. :?
You need to move to Florida. Because of the increasingly strong hurricanes we get pre-staged electrical power worker trucks. Even with Isaias not looking that strong we had news stories of how West Florida and Georgia power trucks were already mobilized and moved to holding areas.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

jztemple2 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:52 pm
malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:42 pm
Not a big surprise since your power grid has developing nation reliability levels. What is another day or two when you had 6 or 7 weeks of outages over the last decade. :?
You need to move to Florida. Because of the increasingly strong hurricanes we get pre-staged electrical power worker trucks. Even with Isaias not looking that strong we had news stories of how West Florida and Georgia power trucks were already mobilized and moved to holding areas.
Right. I'm been looking at the outage tracker because I am trying to help a a friend who's power is out. PSEG is following the Montgomery Scott/Amazon method of time estimation with many outage predicting restoration in 2-3 days all over the region. Maybe they have the mutual aid workers standing by but it doesn't sound like it.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

My experience with the local power companies, plus the news reports that get posted every year about this time, is that the fixes that come first are to the failures that have impacted the biggest number of customers that will be restored by a fix. So if you are a whole community that has lost power due to a substation failure, you can expect that failure to be high priority. On the other hand, if you are like my neighbors a few years ago on the next street over from us which lost power, that were the only few houses out of our community of several thousand houses, well, you were low on the priority list and went days before they were hooked back up.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:42 pm
Not a big surprise since your power grid has developing nation reliability levels. What is another day or two when you had 6 or 7 weeks of outages over the last decade. :?
I just read your post again and realized you weren't necessarily talking about outages due to a hurricane or other storm. Ouch!

We have had outages, not storm related, maybe one every couple of years or so, usually caused by an accident knocking over a power pole, and usually they are fixed in a few hours, although in the past few years those have been pretty much eliminated since every street is receiving power from two different directions. About the most vulnerable spot is now the transformer cans on the poles and they usually replace those in an hour or so, although it's been more than a decade since we've had one fail.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Kraken »

I was going to say that the storm passed by with only minor drama, and then I saw the text from my neighbor saying that it took down my patio umbrella. Oh well, we will rebuild.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious »

Still out. No power trucks at all that I've seen. Outage tracker says awaiting dispatch. I give it two days considering the amount of people out and the priority this town gets.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Octavious wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:47 pm
Still out. No power trucks at all that I've seen. Outage tracker says awaiting dispatch. I give it two days considering the amount of people out and the priority this town gets.
Where are you located?
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

Octavious wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:47 pm
Still out. No power trucks at all that I've seen. Outage tracker says awaiting dispatch. I give it two days considering the amount of people out and the priority this town gets.
About 70% of your town is out (or was as of 5pm today). 76% of my town is out. Our area of NJ is apparently much worse than I originally thought. Hopefully service is back for most people in our area by 5pm tomorrow. I think overall they said about 44% of entire county is out. Once again, poor tree maintenance does a number on our antiquated infrastructure. I suspect in the next week there will be another call for hearings and for the power companies to "come up with a plan" once the pandemic ends.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

The outages are widespread in NJ. Something like 1 M customers are down. 400K in JCPL and 600K in PSEG. According to the First Energy tracker this is 50% of all JCPL customers out across their entire system. Restoration is going to be a long slog. PSEG has almost 20% out.

Edit: A friend of mine is tied to EMS in Parsippany and they are saying 3-5 days. Power outages from Delmarva through Hudson Valley, NY and beyond. This storm just carved a path through a heavily populated corridor.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, our town just sent a Nixle out suggesting people without power shouldn't expect it back for *days* - so I'm guessing Thursday/Friday. They're still in assessment mode right now and will likely be doing it all night. I imagine they'll begin cutting trees and triaging connections starting tomorrow.

All of this during a pandemic. Absolutely the worst-case scenario.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:22 pm
Yeah, our town just sent a Nixle out suggesting people without power shouldn't expect it back for *days* - so I'm guessing Thursday/Friday. They're still in assessment mode right now and will likely be doing it all night. I imagine they'll begin cutting trees and triaging connections starting tomorrow.

All of this during a pandemic. Absolutely the worst-case scenario.
Wait it gets better. Due to the pandemic they have work rules that'll *slow down* response. Mutual aid will also potentially be affected. I'm getting this via different channels but the best line of sight on this is info I am getting derivative from NJSP incident command. Murphy needs to talk about this tomorrow for sure because this might be really bad. Pandemic + high, high heat.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

I have no doubts their response will be slower because of whatever pandemic protocols they've put into place. If they get sick and can't sling electricity? We're in big trouble.

I think the weather is supposed to be a bit more reasonable (low to mid-80s, low humidity), though I'm not sure about the entire state. Evenings are much cooler (not like last week where it was over 80 degrees at 11pm at night; f that noise).

EDIT: Of course if we're relying on other state's utility workers to help us out (like we have in every other emergency), then this just got even more complicated.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious »

Honestly my street didn't look that bad at all. We'll see but I know I'm not high up on their pecking list.
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malchior
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 pm
EDIT: Of course if we're relying on other state's utility workers to help us out (like we have in every other emergency), then this just got even more complicated.
You just hit the problem on the head. Mutual aid protocols are the problem. First Energy can send some of their own people from PA/OH but otherwise there is contract stuff happening. Like everything else they didn't think about this before it happened.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by disarm »

We got nailed with some pretty heavy wind in CT this afternoon, but only a moderate amount of rain. The sustained high wind and strong gusts did a number on trees all around the state, resulting in nearly 600k people without electricity. We lost power around 3:30pm, with no idea when it will be back, but thankfully that's our only problem...no home damage, and we just got a generator, so we can still have lights, tv/internet, and running water (wells suck during a power outage).

With such widespread damage, they're already calling it the third-largest power outage in state history and predicting it will take days to get everyone back online. The worst two outages both occurred in 2011 (hurricane Irene and a big October snow storm) and resulted in some people losing electricity for two weeks. Hopefully we won't be in that kind of mess again...
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

This is all so weird. Massive power outages in the northeast and in Miami-Dade County the number of people without power is reportedly 49. And it is only early August. Six weeks till hurricane peak.

UPDATE: "without power", not "with power" :roll:
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious »

Still just says awaiting dispatch on the outage site. This blows.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

jztemple2 wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 11:40 pm
This is all so weird. Massive power outages in the northeast and in Miami-Dade County the number of people without power is reportedly 49. And it is only early August. Six weeks till hurricane peak.

UPDATE: "without power", not "with power" :roll:
This is unfortunately likely reflecting the increased risk environment that climate change is bringing. My power provider PSEG has been doing huge upgrades to the system in my area in anticipation of that. They stood up an entire backup transmission grid and cross-connected the big sub-stations so that they can lose multiple transmission links. Unfortunately, the "last mile is still above ground here mostly and there are still a lot of trees. These outages are despite a huge program by the utilities to cut back trees wherever they can on top.

The towns around here haven't even cleared the roads yet which only slows response down more. We took a drive around last night just to survey damage in my local area and the rural roads around here are largely impassable which was my experience after Floyd, Irene, Sandy, and now Isaias. The town public works departments will be prioritizing and clearing roads all day I imagine.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Do you folks in the northeast have local governments and emergency operation centers that hold rehearsals for tropical weather events? With global warming I'm thinking that if you are within a couple hundred miles of the Atlantic or Gulf, you're going to get the Big One sooner or later.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by gilraen »

jztemple2 wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:18 am
Do you folks in the northeast have local governments and emergency operation centers that hold rehearsals for tropical weather events? With global warming I'm thinking that if you are within a couple hundred miles of the Atlantic or Gulf, you're going to get the Big One sooner or later.
They probably should, seeing as New York City has been officially reclassified as subtropical climate zone.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

jztemple2 wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:18 am
Do you folks in the northeast have local governments and emergency operation centers that hold rehearsals for tropical weather events? With global warming I'm thinking that if you are within a couple hundred miles of the Atlantic or Gulf, you're going to get the Big One sooner or later.
Absolutely. The problem is our power-grid infrastructure, namely that it's suspended wires in whole or in part for distribution. Add in all the trees in NJ and that the utility company points the finger at the towns and the town points the finger at property owners regarding maintenance and it's a never ending cycle of large-scale power outages every time a major weather event blows through. Sometimes it's ice; sometimes it's wind. I've lived n NJ my entire life with the minor exception of a few years as a toddler. The number of mutli-day power outages happening over the last 10-15 years is unprecedented.

Responding isn't the issue. Similar to public health (have I beaten this to death yet?), it's what we're doing for prevention that's the problem.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

In some locales, the power companies have the right to trim anything that might impinge on their equipment.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Smoove_B »

The power companies (in NJ) have been extremely lax with tree maintenance. When they start, residents go crazy because they're "cutting away all the trees". It's a never ending cycle and it's become tiresome.

We also have somewhere around 20 million Ash trees in our state, all currently at risk for destruction from the Emerald Ash borer. I have no doubts weakened Ash trees were part of the mix yesterday.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Octavious »

I haven't seen a single power truck yet. And their outage site is useless. I hate jcpl.
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