MLB 2021: Offseason chat

[ImLawBoy]

It will shock no one who's paid attention to these conversations over the years that I fall into the traditionalist camp more than not. I do try to keep an open mind, though.

Great article on the rules changes for 2020 and where MLB is heading. These are the writer's opinions based on his knowledge. Basically the reason the NL got the DH is to allow for conferences instead of the AL-NL. Other leagues have been very successful with regional conferences and MLB feels the same could happen with their game. This would mean for example that the Astros wouldn't be the only AL West team outside of the Pacific time zone, and that there could be intrastate rivalries that aren't happening now. Shorter season with more playoff games like we're getting this year. MLB has the fewest playoff game participation than any other major sport franchise. The runner on second after nine innings came from college football where the ball is placed closer to the endzone.

I would eventually adapt to the idea of regional conferences, although I hope they would still keep a decent amount of non-conference play. The Cubs would keep their most important rivalries with the Cardinals and Brewers (which is a relatively recent addition to the rivalry list, but has been a lot of fun lately), plus they could add other AL teams to the list (besides the White Sox, who are already rivals despite being in the other league). I have to admit that I don't hate the DH this year as much as I thought I would. I do think it's a bit counterproductive to the goal of shortening games and it still bugs my sensibilities that there's a non-hitting player, but it doesn't bug me during game play. I'll talk about shorter season later. I don't like the runner on second to start extra innings. I just watched that play out last night with the Cubs vs. the Pirates, and I was not a fan. I saw in that article that one person suggested bringing in that ghost runner to start the 12th - I could probably get behind that idea.

[Me]The bottom line is that MLB is losing fans. Attendance has been down since 2015 (excluding this year of course). Ratings have been falling for awhile. They know that their core audience is going to be unhappy but their core audience is over 50 and that audience apparently isn't enough to sustain growth. In my opinion, their real problem can't be fixed, and that's the lack of stars. Their best player is on a team that's only gone to the playoffs once since he's been on the team, Mike Trout. No baseball player makes the top 50 of the most popular players in US sports. The NBA has stars that can take over a game and seem to will their teams to win. Or Tom Brady throwing that miracle TD that wins the game. The nature of baseball is that it's a true team game, no one player can dominate like the other leagues. So maybe they need to emphasize more of who they are, a team game where the players all make a difference.

It hasn't been that long since players were the stars, though. McGuire/Sosa was obviously huge. I remember even before Bonds became a steroid swollen caricature that it was an event when he would come into town. I don't know how to get back to that level. You're right that it doesn't help that Trout rarely reaches the postseason (and he really seems content to fly below the radar), but why weren't Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez (to name a trio just from the Cubs) a bigger deal nationally? They were playing at elite levels and had great, magnetic personalities (well, Rizzo and Baez, anyway), but I don't think they got much traction outside of Chicago.

I think MLB's biggest problems are (in no particular order):

• Inventory - too many games make missing one not such a big deal
• Game Start Time - Kids aren't staying up until 11pm on weeknights to watch games
• Playoff Game Start Time - This makes watching the World Series nearly impossible.
• Games last too long with too little action - Hard to keep a kids attention when a pitcher throws to first 3 or 4 times

I get why things are the way they are. In the early '00s, I even had the MLB package for 2 years and got to see every Red Sox game. But there are too many things vying for kids' attention these days to make that kind of commitment work for most people.

My thoughts:

• Inventory - I don't think that's solvable. Even if they reduce the number of games (whether it's back to 154 or something even more radical), they are still going to have the most games by a good shot. And it's not like you have to catch every NBA or NHL game - they've got plenty of inventory, too.
• Game Start Time - Yes. I'd love to see more daytime games on weekends in particular.
• Playoff Game Start Time - They're not going to move the games up to noon to meet your schedule. Seriously, though, I can't imagine letting my kids stay up to watch the World Series in 2016 when the Cubs won (does anyone remember that?).
• Games last too long with too little action - I'm an old, but how isn't this a benefit? Keep the game on in the background while you Tik Tok or Fortnite or Floss or whatever. [insert abesimpsonyellingatcloud pic]

[stessier]

Red Sox send out tweet celebrating resetting their luxury tax payments.

It goes....poorly.

He wasn't wrong.

[El Guapo]

Red Sox send out tweet celebrating resetting their luxury tax payments.

It goes....poorly.

He's not totally wrong, though Shaughnessy is just more of a hot take artist than being "the worst", exactly. But you know, also not a great tweet by a Senior Media Relations guy.

[stessier]

I think MLB's biggest problems are (in no particular order):

• Inventory - too many games make missing one not such a big deal
• Game Start Time - Kids aren't staying up until 11pm on weeknights to watch games
• Playoff Game Start Time - This makes watching the World Series nearly impossible.
• Games last too long with too little action - Hard to keep a kids attention when a pitcher throws to first 3 or 4 times

I get why things are the way they are. In the early '00s, I even had the MLB package for 2 years and got to see every Red Sox game. But there are too many things vying for kids' attention these days to make that kind of commitment work for most people.

Going to a game isn't just about the action on the field. It's about the atmosphere and who you're with. You can actually talk. It's a nice contrast from loud, impossible to hear yourself think arena games like NHL and NBA and the oaf-fest that is the NFL live game experience.

Alas, if it doesn't translate to TV it needs updating. I get it but it's depressing.

I went to my first game when I was in my late 20s. Most people don't get to go to games - it has to work on TV or it will die (imo).

[stessier]

I think MLB's biggest problems are (in no particular order):

• Inventory - too many games make missing one not such a big deal
• Game Start Time - Kids aren't staying up until 11pm on weeknights to watch games
• Playoff Game Start Time - This makes watching the World Series nearly impossible.
• Games last too long with too little action - Hard to keep a kids attention when a pitcher throws to first 3 or 4 times

I get why things are the way they are. In the early '00s, I even had the MLB package for 2 years and got to see every Red Sox game. But there are too many things vying for kids' attention these days to make that kind of commitment work for most people.

My thoughts:

• Inventory - I don't think that's solvable. Even if they reduce the number of games (whether it's back to 154 or something even more radical), they are still going to have the most games by a good shot. And it's not like you have to catch every NBA or NHL game - they've got plenty of inventory, too.
• Game Start Time - Yes. I'd love to see more daytime games on weekends in particular.
• Playoff Game Start Time - They're not going to move the games up to noon to meet your schedule. Seriously, though, I can't imagine letting my kids stay up to watch the World Series in 2016 when the Cubs won (does anyone remember that?).
• Games last too long with too little action - I'm an old, but how isn't this a benefit? Keep the game on in the background while you Tik Tok or Fortnite or Floss or whatever. [insert abesimpsonyellingatcloud pic]

Thoughts on your thoughts:

• Inventory - I don't think that's solvable. Even if they reduce the number of games (whether it's back to 154 or something even more radical), they are still going to have the most games by a good shot. And it's not like you have to catch every NBA or NHL game - they've got plenty of inventory, too.
  • People are discussing reducing the NBA games too - and the MLB has 2x their number. A radical rethinking is worth it - I don't need 19 Sox/Yankees game a year to figure out who is best (and I felt that way even before this year).
• Game Start Time - Yes. I'd love to see more daytime games on weekends in particular.
  • Amen!
• Playoff Game Start Time - They're not going to move the games up to noon to meet your schedule. Seriously, though, I can't imagine letting my kids stay up to watch the World Series in 2016 when the Cubs won (does anyone remember that?).
  • I don't need my schedule - I get that we'll have to stay up later, but games ending past midnight kill Eastern timezone dwellers.
• Games last too long with too little action - I'm an old, but how isn't this a benefit? Keep the game on in the background while you Tik Tok or Fortnite or Floss or whatever. [insert abesimpsonyellingatcloud pic]
  • It's harder to learn the game that way and thus harder to fall in love. And I don't think people will run out and buy jersey's for their Fornite background soundscape.

[Jeff V]

My son turns 7 this week. When I was his age, I:
- finished my 3rd season of Little League (T-ball wasn't a thing in those days, we started baseball at 5).
- attended 4-5 games per year
- watched nearly every Cubs game on WGN, mostly on a B&W TV.
- paid attention to everything going on in the game because it made me a better player. This was especially important for defense.
- had a collection of baseball cards

My son has done approximately none of these things.

Background noise does not a fan make. Since birth he's had heavy doses of football playing all season long but he doesn't know squat about it and if given a choice, would much rather have videos of people playing video games playing in the background more than anything else.

Among the major differences that have eroded my enthusiasm over the years are:

- players are too mercenary. By the end of spring training I knew every player on the roster (and the starters of all other teams) and for the most part those players were there at the end of the year, and the next year, and the year after that. It was a noteworthy thing when a starter would either retire or suffer a bad injury a it was rare (not unheard of, of course, but rare) for quality players to move around.

- game is too metrics-driven. Some players were beloved because they would sometimes excel in adverse situations. These days, metrics determines the opportunity and adversity is minimized.

- games cost too damn much to attend. Through high school, I enjoyed $2 bleacher seats. It is almost impossible for a middle-class family to attend as many games as I did back in the day and enjoy the full experience (programs, scorecards, hotdogs, peanuts, crappy frozen malt cups used to cool the piss-hot beer smuggled in).

- I'll assume baseball cards still exist, but I also assume kids can't afford them on their own by returning soda bottles found discarded on the curbs.

- Games aren't mostly televised on just one channel anymore. When a percentage of games are on a network you don't receive, it lessens the chance kids will get hooked, especially if it causes them to miss important games.

- Stars, or lack thereof, is a product of the economics of the game. Mediocre players receive spectacularly outlandish rewards for their service, and the brain goes numb by the time you get to better players. Instead of being pleasantly surprised when a slugger hits a home run or a hitter gets a double down the line, it is now expected each and every time considering what they are making and a disappointment when they fail. This change of perspective as much as anything turned me off from the game.

While change is inevitable, changes that might seem good in the short term can have long term consequences. You're seeing some fallout from the 1994 strike (the tipping point for me)...the abrupt end of that season ended for good my prioritizing of watching baseball as the top summer activity and it really fell by the wayside as I discovered a new variety of enjoyable activities. I can imagine disaffected kids from those days becoming ambivalent parents like myself, stifling the next generation of fans. At this point, not sure how they go about fixing any of it.

[Lorini]

Always keep in mind that it’s the players taking the risks, and whatever the players don’t get, the owners take. The owners are watching a game (if they even bother to come) from a luxury suite while the players are getting clobbered by bad pitches, hamstring injuries, messed up elbows, and all the other injuries that go with being an MLB baseball player. I will never ever bemoan what players get paid. As an example from the NBA, Kobe’s last contrast was 35M and people were mad about it. The NBA made over 600M from Kobe. Over his whole career he barely made a tenth of that. I’m sure Kershaw, Alex Rodriguez, Big Papy, made way less than what the owners made off of them. Keep it in context.

[stessier]

Always keep in mind that it’s the players taking the risks, and whatever the players don’t get, the owners take. The owners are watching a game (if they even bother to come) from a luxury suite while the players are getting clobbered by bad pitches, hamstring injuries, messed up elbows, and all the other injuries that go with being an MLB baseball player. I will never ever bemoan what players get paid. As an example from the NBA, Kobe’s last contrast was 35M and people were mad about it. The NBA made over 600M from Kobe. Over his whole career he barely made a tenth of that. I’m sure Kershaw, Alex Rodriguez, Big Papy, made way less than what the owners made off of them. Keep it in context.

Kobe earned $323 million in salary over his career.

[Lorini]

I wasn't aware of that, thanks for the correction. Still half of what he was worth to the owners (now called governors in the NBA btw). Point stands.

[Lorini]

CBS wants to ban the shift. What’s next, banning pitches over 99 mph? I’m totally against banning something based on positioning.

[Jaymann]

CBS wants to ban the shift. What’s next, banning pitches over 99 mph? I’m totally against banning something based on positioning.

That's idiotic. If a team wants to concede portions of the field have at it. Smart batters should be able to take advantage of it. And I don't think there is any evidence that the shift hurts ratings.

[ImLawBoy]

I don't understand. CBS doesn't even air MLB games.

I also enjoy seeing Kyle Schwarber drop a bunt down the third base line once or twice a month.

[Isgrimnur]

[El Guapo]

Hey, I just found out that the Yankees are apparently inexplicably terrible all of the sudden! So, there is some good news in 2020 after all.

[LawBeefaroni]

inexplicably

Other than Stanton and Judge on the IL?

[Octavious]

I'm glad I was totally right about that deal that Philly made to Wheeler.

4-0 with a 2.47 ERA

[El Guapo]

inexplicably

Other than Stanton and Judge on the IL?

I mean, they're 5-20 over the past 25 games. And they won 103 games with a similar roster and a ton of injuries last year, AND this year they have Gerrit Cole. You figure they'd miss a step without Judge (I'm not even counting Stanton, since he can't play 2 games in a row without getting hurt).

[Lorini]

inexplicably

Other than Stanton and Judge on the IL?

I mean, they're 5-20 over the past 25 games. And they won 103 games with a similar roster and a ton of injuries last year, AND this year they have Gerrit Cole. You figure they'd miss a step without Judge (I'm not even counting Stanton, since he can't play 2 games in a row without getting hurt).

Apparently Cole is a home run throwing machine so that doesn’t help And the Jays are better with my favorite pitcher Ryu, so the games within the division appear to be more competitive, especially with the Yanks tendency to lose to the Rays.

Dodger pitching issues continue with our starting pitcher last night getting hit in the ankle in the 1st inning and having to leave the game. Our overtaxed bullpen is feeling the strain with the manager pulling the starters after 4 and a third innings on average. I don’t know that that’s sustainable but we'll see.

[Jaymann]

inexplicably

Other than Stanton and Judge on the IL?

I mean, they're 5-20 over the past 25 games. And they won 103 games with a similar roster and a ton of injuries last year, AND this year they have Gerrit Cole. You figure they'd miss a step without Judge (I'm not even counting Stanton, since he can't play 2 games in a row without getting hurt).

Apparently Cole is a home run throwing machine so that doesn’t help And the Jays are better with my favorite pitcher Ryu, so the games within the division appear to be more competitive, especially with the Yanks tendency to lose to the Rays.

Dodger pitching issues continue with our starting pitcher last night getting hit in the ankle in the 1st inning and having to leave the game. Our overtaxed bullpen is feeling the strain with the manager pulling the starters after 4 and a third innings on average. I don’t know that that’s sustainable but we'll see.

If there were ever a season where they can get away with it, this is it. Meanwhile those footsteps they are hearing are the Padres!

[Lorini]

Well that's the problem. Burning up the bullpen leaves them unprepared for the final sprint and for the post season. They should have figured out a way to keep Ryu (although he's much better off as the ace of a staff. They'd be in way better shape.

[ImLawBoy]

I think everyone has said that it's just a matter of time until Alec Mills throws a no hitter.

[ImLawBoy]

After Mills' no hitter for the Cubs vs. the Brewers today at Miller Park, there have now been two no hitters in the history of the park. The first? Thrown by Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs . . . vs. the Astros. It was 9/14/08 (today was one day off of the anniversary) when the Astros were looking for a neutral site for games after they were forced to relocate due to Hurricane Ike. Apparently no one thought to tell them that Miller Park is often referred to as "Wrigley North".

[Lorini]

Thanks Giants, geezus couldn't you at least have gotten a split???

[naednek]

Thanks Giants, geezus couldn't you at least have gotten a split???

we were sabotaged with a covid scare so we would lose our momentum. It worked.

[Jaymon]

The Sosa vs McGwire season was 22 years ago. Thats 7 years before youtube was invented.

In My Opinion, baseball has become an old person sport. It takes a long time and its kind of boring compared to the other sports.
You need to have a lot of spare time and a long attention span to be a baseball fan. I can be a football fan on 4 hours a week, thats enough to keep me up to date and watching my favorite team. But thats what, 1 baseball game? maybe 1.5 if they are especially speedy? And there are 4 or 5 games a week if you want to stay current with you favorite team. Who has that kind of time these days?

If they don't find a way to reduce the number of games and shorten how long games last, its going to be a death spiral for baseball.

[LawBeefaroni]

More 2020:

The league was still finalizing a memorandum it expects to deliver to clubs and players this week in which it will urge — against history and human nature — that all involved remember that a pandemic still ensnares the country and to limit contact after clinching a division, a playoff spot or a postseason series.

It is another miserable element from 2020. Players dream about the dog-pile moments, the eye-burning joy of a champagne celebration, the collaborative exultation in commemorating a great team achievement. And all the prodding and fining could mean little against history, spontaneity and euphoria. When Alec Mills threw a no-hitter Sunday he was swarmed by Cubs teammates.

Still, MLB recognizes it can remove one vital element from any stadium celebration — alcohol. The teams supply it in celebratory moments and MLB is going to forbid its presence. MLB also can, to a large extent through the teams, control the clubhouse. To that end, the league is going to ask players to celebrate on the field and to mask up as soon as it’s possible to do so. Commemorative shirts and caps are likely to be distributed in a way to limit contact with as many people as possible.

[ImLawBoy]

Baseball, fans, and people who apparently don't even like baseball always seem to have great plans for fixing baseball that don't seem to address what is "wrong" with baseball. Games are too long! Let's add a three minimum hitter rule for relievers to lop off an average of 30 seconds or so per game (meanwhile, let's expand the DH to both leagues to ensure the games go longer). There are too many games! Let's get rid of a bunch! (Never mind that this hasn't been a problem in the past, and in fact is a benefit in some cases - who needs to see every game anyway? Plus it would blow up the economics of the game, making ticket prices even more outlandish.)

[Lorini]

Adding the DH to the NL is imo almost certainly a prelude to a massive realignment. They could like shorten the time between innings, but that means less time for commercials so that won’t happen. The games do last too long though. Just think of how many hours you spend watching every game of your favorite baseball team vs watching your favorite football team or basketball team. It’s ridiculous. And I’m unsure how much actual entertainment you get from those ~400+ hours versus 48 for football and 200 hours of basketball. And I think that’s really the problem. The game simply is not worth three hours nearly every day for people.

[Jeff V]

All I can say is when I was a kid, the most awesome thing was going to a doubleheader...a real one, not the current bullshit where they clear the stadium between games. Every team had a handful of them scheduled at the start of the season.

And that wasn't too long.

[ImLawBoy]

I don't disagree that they should work to shorten the games, but they need to be realistic about it. The three batter minimum saves about 30 seconds per game on average. You're not going to fix the game length issues by finding a bunch of rules changes that add up to maybe 10 minutes per game (and you'd need 20 rules changes with the same effect as the three batter minimum rule to reach even that modest amount of time saved).

I think you're right that the biggest benefit would probably be to reduce commercials. I'm no TV executive, but maybe they could do more sponsorships during game play or something? I know the Cubs do mid-inning commercials with the game in a small window during things like mound visits. Maybe a pitch clock would help, although I'd like to see some analysis on how much time that would actually save. I'd love to see replay stick to a strict 90 second rule (although I don't know how much time that would realistically save), but that seems to be an issue that vexes all the major sports leagues and no one seems willing to address.

Part of game length is simply how games are played these days, though. People work the count a lot more (even if they still strike out more). Instead of someone grounding out on the second pitch, they end up striking out after working the count and fouling off a few pitches. I don't think that's something that can be fixed without the next evolution of strategy in the game. I wonder what would happen if they moved the mound back five feet? (Probably a lot more arms getting blown out, unfortunately.)

That's a lot of typing to try to express that I get frustrated at this tinkering around with rules of the game in the name of shortening game time when the tinkering doesn't end up doing much. I agree with you that the games need to be shorter - I just don't see a realistic path toward that.

[ImLawBoy]

All I can say is when I was a kid, the most awesome thing was going to a doubleheader...a real one, not the current bullshit where they clear the stadium between games. Every team had a handful of them scheduled at the start of the season.

And that wasn't too long.

I remember my dad and I had tickets to a game (I think against the Padres) and the night before they had to call the game early due to darkness (game started late due to rain, I think). That gave us a quasi-double header as we got to see the end of the previous night's game and then watch the next game.

[Jeff V]

What a coincidence, the first doubleheader I attended was also Cubs-Padres, but it was a scheduled one circa 1970.

One of the best games I ever saw was also a scheduled doubleheader -- Sox vs. Tigers. July 12, 1979. The second game was not played and it had nothing to do with darkness. We were in the center field bleachers until the riot started...

[Lorini]

Heard rumor that they may introduce Sunday double headers (assuming 7 innings each) next year. That’d be cool, it’s probably too much baseball for me though.

[El Guapo]

What, no discussion of the Wilpons selling the Mets?

Seems good, since it seems like the Wilpons are terrible. Though I have no idea whether Cohen will be better.

[Jaymann]

Sweet! The Padres chase Kershaw in the 7th then exploit Dodger miscues to explode for 5 runs. For some reason I now get SNLA on AT&T U-verse, so I can watch my precious Padres every time they play the Dodgers (or Angels). The Friars have now won 8 straight and are only a buck and a half back of the once unreachable Dodgers with 11 left to play.

[El Guapo]

Sounds like everyone in San Diego has Mitch Moreland mania!

[Lorini]

Sweet! The Padres chase Kershaw in the 7th then exploit Dodger miscues to explode for 5 runs. For some reason I now get SNLA on AT&T U-verse, so I can watch my precious Padres every time they play the Dodgers (or Angels). The Friars have now won 8 straight and are only a buck and a half back of the once unreachable Dodgers with 11 left to play.

Dodgers believe their own bullshit. They also have a couple of serious liabilities, Muncy and Pederson. Muncy can’t hit and made two bad mistakes fielding. I wonder how long the Dodgers will stick with them.

[Jaymann]

What, no discussion of the Wilpons selling the Mets?

Actually I did mention J-Lo's failed bid, but it may have been too obscure:

Mets made a few trades that I'm still understanding the point of. The Wilpons and our GQ GM hopefully will be gone next year. At least they didn't trade any really big players.

But they dissed J-Lo because she didn't have enough scratch.

[pr0ner]

And that wasn't too long.

That's because the average game was played 40 minutes faster in the 70s than it is today.

[El Guapo]

Incidentally, it appears that the new Mets owner (via an entity he controlled) settled to securities fraud charges with the DoJ and SEC. Good times.