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Winter 2020-21 is coming

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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by $iljanus »

dbt1949 wrote:-20 in Fayetteville this morning. 50 in the house. 6-7 inches of snow on the ground.
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How Is the Polar Vortex Affected by Climate Change?


While the polar vortex is well documented, its behavior has become more extreme as a result of climate change, according to Ullrich. He explains: warming of the Earth has led to the loss of Arctic sea ice, transforming a highly reflective icy surface to a dark absorptive surface. The change is warming higher latitudes and reducing the temperature difference between the warmer mid-latitude and polar regions. This weakens and destabilizes the polar jet stream, causing it to dip into lower latitudes, bringing polar air farther south. Ullrich expects future climate change to further weaken the polar jet stream, bringing rise to more extreme and unusual weather patterns."



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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Well, cleared the back by the garage but the alley is impassable. If the 3 feet of snow wasn't enough, there's a Cayenne stuck on one side and an X5 stuck on the other. You mean a CUV isn't magic? Kid's have a snow day and I'll be working from home. Cat's food didn't get delivered though so I'll have to thaw some chicken or walk to the store.





GungHo wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:33 am
Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:40 pm It’s 55 in the house, 37 in the garage, and 7 outside with a wind chill of -8.
You're up north somewhere, right? Frisco/Plano/Allen, yeah? Saw on ONCOR's website that those areas have really been hit hardest. Sorry to hear that. This is one of the few times where being in a co-op I think actually benefits us in that, so far at least, they havent subjected us to the rolling blackouts. NOt sure if the fact that our (ginormous) sub-division is all gas heat has any affect on their thinking there. Though how odd is it that we can all-out tax the grid for 5 months straight running our ACs but 4 days of cold causes rolling black-outs?
Apparently turbines are frozen and solar is offline. Texas energy companies are having to buy nat gas on the spot market and are getting creamed. The "we can go it alone because we're the biggest energy producer" strategy isn't working.


Hang in there, all. Layer up!
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by coopasonic »

GungHo wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:33 am
Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:40 pm It’s 55 in the house, 37 in the garage, and 7 outside with a wind chill of -8.
You're up north somewhere, right? Frisco/Plano/Allen, yeah? Saw on ONCOR's website that those areas have really been hit hardest. Sorry to hear that. This is one of the few times where being in a co-op I think actually benefits us in that, so far at least, they havent subjected us to the rolling blackouts. NOt sure if the fact that our (ginormous) sub-division is all gas heat has any affect on their thinking there. Though how odd is it that we can all-out tax the grid for 5 months straight running our ACs but 4 days of cold causes rolling black-outs?
The ridiculous cold is impacting power generation capabilities in addition to power consumption. None of our infrastructure is built to handle this as it doesn't happen, dammit.

On the plus side rolling blackouts makes it really hard for me to do any work... that's a plus right? Come on, I need a plus!
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Blackhawk »

Single digits, and I'm guessing 10" right now. It's a lot compared to the past ten or fifteen years, but it's not unusual for the pre-climate change Indiana I grew up in. Luckily a lot of the old infrastructure is still in place, and there is enough collected experience around here that people don't go nuts when it gets bad.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Exodor »

Portland seems to be out of the woods. We got out of town just before the snow started on Thursday and spent a long weekend at the coast. When we returned yesterday afternoon it was well above freezing and everything was clear except our side street which was a little slushy (and our driveway which was wet ice which is always fun). There are still widespread power outages, though - my daughter's distance learning is cancelled for the day due to them.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:28 am Well, cleared the back by the garage but the alley is impassable. If the 3 feet of snow wasn't enough, there's a Cayenne stuck on one side and an X5 stuck on the other. You mean a CUV isn't magic? Kid's have a snow day and I'll be working from home. Cat's food didn't get delivered though so I'll have to thaw some chicken or walk to the store.
The alley looks quite peaceful, as no one has tried to traverse it yet. Unless we get some serious garbage truck action followed by enough traffic to get amounts down, we're not getting out. My 17 year old Audi has all wheel drive, but it's very low to the ground and has been stuck in the alley before. The van is FWD and is much lower to the ground than a typical van because of the wheelchair ramp modifications. It's not going anywhere for at least a week, I'd guess.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Jeff V »

The snow plow was kind enough to gift me about 250 cubic feet heavy packed street snow (a foot deep). That was joy. Got all of the heavy stuff cleared before my wife got home.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by coopasonic »


Spoiler:
So, I've answered a few questions about the #poweroutage situation here in #Texas due to the #winterstorm2021

Welcome to my explainer of why some people have power, and others don't.
Basically boils down to Texas power generation is outside because heat. Northern power generation is inside because cold. Either has problems when the opposite happens.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by malchior »

It is interesting because generation supply is also a huge issue in this outage. Natural gas wells all over the region had to be shut down since they were outside safe operating temperature ranges. To preserve as much supply as possible they cut off the export to northern Mexico for instance.

The problem with individual stations and supply outages led to big shortfalls. I was watching the ERCOT dashboard and at one point demand exceeded all supply available without outages for periods of time yesterday. I worked at a major Texas energy company for several years and had that dashboard over my head for 5 years daily...and I never saw anything like that.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Jaymon »

Im south of Portland. no snow, but a bunch of freezing rain. it was like god dumped a slushie on us. many broken trees and branches, we lost power for 2 days. Have gas though, so we had a fireplace running and could still cook on the stove, and the water stayed on.

All you folks in Texas, stay safe, its rough out there right now.


I had a workmate from wisconson or witchitaw or some freezer burnt flat place. I got tired of him saying that shit about how it "aint cold" so I forced him to agree to a universal truth, that temperature below freezing are cold. if its below freezing, I can say its cold, and he can't disagree, because that is what most of humanity considers to be "cold"
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Blackhawk »

This part of Indiana is right near the snow line. A little ways north of us and it snows constantly. A little ways south and it rarely snows. Because of that, climate change has had a huge effect here. We used to get snow all winter. Now we get rain most of the time. The actual precipitation total has gone up, but meaningful snow is rare.

So today my kids finally learned the joy of shoveling snow.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LawBeefaroni »

How to make winter better: gritter (salt truck) tracker.


The gritter names are excellent.
Sir Salter Scott.
Gritney Spears.
The Basil Salty.
Spready Mercury.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:28 am Apparently turbines are frozen and solar is offline. Texas energy companies are having to buy nat gas on the spot market and are getting creamed. The "we can go it alone because we're the biggest energy producer" strategy isn't working.
https://fortune.com/2021/02/16/texas-po ... -turbines/
In Texas, where 25 gigawatts of wind capacity feeds into the state’s main power grid, wind can sometimes produce as much as 60% of total electricity. But because wind power tends to ebb in the winter, the grid operator typically assumes that the turbines will generate only about 19% to 43% of their maximum output.

Even so, wind generation has actually exceeded the grid operator’s daily forecast through the weekend. Solar power has been slightly below forecast Monday.

“The performance of wind and solar is way down the list among the smaller factors in the disaster that we’re facing,” Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, said in an interview. Blaming renewables for the blackouts “is really a red herring.”
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:03 pm How to make winter better: gritter (salt truck) tracker.


The gritter names are excellent.
Sir Salter Scott.
Gritney Spears.
The Basil Salty.
Spready Mercury.
Disappointed by Michigan's lack of names. Only found a handful not named "Maintenance Vehicle." Big props for the live dashcams though.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by malchior »

The Meal wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:03 pmEven so, wind generation has actually exceeded the grid operator’s daily forecast through the weekend. Solar power has been slightly below forecast Monday.

“The performance of wind and solar is way down the list among the smaller factors in the disaster that we’re facing,” Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, said in an interview. Blaming renewables for the blackouts “is really a red herring.”
The biggest problem is probably natural gas supply but I'd be unsurprised to hear that some coal units have fired up since electricity prices are so high. Coal units usually don't have the price power to underbid gas units on the next day power market.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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Jeff V wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:16 am The snow plow was kind enough to gift me about 250 cubic feet heavy packed street snow (a foot deep).
I just read some tips and tricks from a snow plow driver on how to avoid this. Simply shovel out 6-8 feet from the end of your driveway and 8-10 feet down your street in the direction the plow will come from. It's that easy!
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:02 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:28 am Well, cleared the back by the garage but the alley is impassable. If the 3 feet of snow wasn't enough, there's a Cayenne stuck on one side and an X5 stuck on the other. You mean a CUV isn't magic? Kid's have a snow day and I'll be working from home. Cat's food didn't get delivered though so I'll have to thaw some chicken or walk to the store.
The alley looks quite peaceful, as no one has tried to traverse it yet. Unless we get some serious garbage truck action followed by enough traffic to get amounts down, we're not getting out. My 17 year old Audi has all wheel drive, but it's very low to the ground and has been stuck in the alley before. The van is FWD and is much lower to the ground than a typical van because of the wheelchair ramp modifications. It's not going anywhere for at least a week, I'd guess.
I'm center of the block, AWD forester. I may have a chance tomorrow after the garbage truck is supposed to roll through. Based on past experience, the cost of failure is a least an hour of shoveling.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LordMortis »

CNBC was talking about the price per Megawatt in Texas and how insane it is right now and wondering who is going to pay for it. I learned our northern Mexico plants are shut down so power can be routed to residential only so people don't freeze to death. Horrible but good the priorities are the people and not keeping "the economy" moving.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Hyena »

In San Antonio we've been without power for 36 hours now. They were doing rolling blackouts of 7 minutes of power with 35 minutes no power, then they stopped that altogether after four cycles. It's 46° inside our house and now they've said we're looking at another 6 hours of snow/sleet tonight. And of course when we built the house we skipped on the $1000 for a fireplace because San Antonio!

Thankfully we have a king-sized bed and two kids...looking like another puppy-pike tonight...
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:36 pm CNBC was talking about the price per Megawatt in Texas and how insane it is right now and wondering who is going to pay for it. I learned our northern Mexico plants are shut down so power can be routed to residential only so people don't freeze to death. Horrible but good the priorities are the people and not keeping "the economy" moving.
We cut back some export of natural gas going to northern Mexico as part of this. It is a bit of a crisis in Mexico.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Hyena wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:19 pm In San Antonio we've been without power for 36 hours now. They were doing rolling blackouts of 7 minutes of power with 35 minutes no power, then they stopped that altogether after four cycles. It's 46° inside our house and now they've said we're looking at another 6 hours of snow/sleet tonight. And of course when we built the house we skipped on the $1000 for a fireplace because San Antonio!

Thankfully we have a king-sized bed and two kids...looking like another puppy-pike tonight...


46° is pretty cold for indoor temps. Layer up and eat some calories.


Good luck and stay warm!
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by jztemple2 »

Is this Texas storm one of those once-in-a-decade type, once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-century, or even more rare?
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by malchior »

jztemple2 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:04 pm Is this Texas storm one of those once-in-a-decade type, once-in-a-generation, once-in-a-century, or even more rare?
They had a big winter power outage in 2011. 2 weeks earlier in February back in 2011 but same type of problem. Demand spiked and overran supply. This one was a bit worse in that power generation and natural gas delivery got hit as well.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Skinypupy »

Damn, even the possums are freezing.

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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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Looks more like he tried to climb the fence, fell neck-first onto one of the wires, and then his corpse froze (I've seen it happen, but not with opossums.)
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LordMortis »

Snowblower dead. Not finished yet but so is my back and my arms.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Isgrimnur »

Water and power are back. I don’t recommend losing both at the same time.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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My version of snow removable is to wait for it to get warm enough to melt.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Isgrimnur »

And power is off again.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by jztemple2 »

Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:08 pm And power is off again.
And what is the normal climatological outlook for the land of Chookity pok? :)
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

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Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 8:22 pm Water and power are back. I don’t recommend losing both at the same time.
Obviously, you don't have a well. Losing power includes losing water as a bonus!

That said, g'luck and stay safe to all the Texans out there.

I had the fun of wading through a foot or so of snow on the ground all around my house so I could roof rake. Have issues with heat in the attic getting to the roof and causing ice dams. Have some ice dams, but they're not too bad so long as I remember to keep raking the snow off. Won't get water in the house this way.

The first time I found out what an ice dam was, had about 3-4 inches of them all around. Every room in the house was leaking water. Kid's room had paint bubbled with water, nearing the ceiling light. Was getting concerned we were heading for a fire or something. Had to burst that bubble and drain the water. Got some sort of melt pucks that were supposed to be put up there and they'd make paths the water could flow down through the ice dams. Layered them 3 deep, they didn't melt all the way through the ice. Finally took a small pry bar and claw hammer. Literally chiseled off a significant portion of the ice so it could get through. Fortunately, my neighbor went up on the roof and shoveled it off for me the first night when all the rooms were leaking and I had no clue what to do.

Got a roof rake that year and had to replace my snow shovel that broke and snow blower that died. That was when I got this huge shovel that I was not too excited about but after using it, learned that it's not great for the deck but is amazing for driveway/paths!

https://www.homedepot.com/p/True-Temper ... 055660-_-N&

Very ergonomical design! I can lift way more snow with significant less effort than a basic snow shovel that can't carry 1/2 as much snow! Loved that thing. Very disappointed when the metal strip got screwed up last year. Finally bought a new one and just got it a few weeks ago. Just in time!
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Kraken »

Meanwhile, we continue to "enjoy" mildly unpleasant weather. Tonight it's 37 and foggy after light rain all day. Tomorrow's clear and colder, but not COLD. We're expecting 4-8" of snow Friday and Saturday, which is just an ordinary winter nuisance here.

Hope TX gets a break pretty soon.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by dbt1949 »

About 8" of snow out there. 15 degrees now, only going to get down to 13 tonight. 62 in the house. Thursday it gets down to 4 and then it warms up to the 40s by Saturday.
Next week I die from a heart attack when I get the electric bill.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Isgrimnur »

jztemple2 wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:08 pm And power is off again.
And what is the normal climatological outlook for the land of Chookity pok? :)
In deep space, there is no snow.

As for wells, never been on one. I’m a city boy through and through.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Zenn7 »

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:19 am
jztemple2 wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:08 pm And power is off again.
And what is the normal climatological outlook for the land of Chookity pok? :)
In deep space, there is no snow.

As for wells, never been on one. I’m a city boy through and through.
"Country" is about 5 miles from DTE Theater (aka Pine Knobs), 10 miles from the palace of Auburn Hills (former home of the Detroit Pistons) and from what was (when it opened in the late 90's) the largest mall in Michigan. A whole mile from the nearest McDonalds and Kroger! About 4 miles to the next nearest (it's like they have a cooperative partnership around here, Kroger and McDonalds must be close together).

Though I do have about 500' of dirt road til I get to the paved highway.

It's rough being so far out here in the sticks. :p
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Jeff V »

dbt1949 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:12 am Next week I die from a heart attack when I get the electric bill.
I've been getting daily high price alerts from ComEd since Saturday. I'm being asked to delay the use of appliances. First 2 days, no problem since I was out of town. Becoming a problem now on day 5.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by jztemple2 »

Jeff V wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:59 am
dbt1949 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:12 am Next week I die from a heart attack when I get the electric bill.
I've been getting daily high price alerts from ComEd since Saturday. I'm being asked to delay the use of appliances. First 2 days, no problem since I was out of town. Becoming a problem now on day 5.
?? High price alerts? Do they change what they charge you from day to day?
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Jeff V »

jztemple2 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:12 am ?? High price alerts? Do they change what they charge you from day to day?
Yes. More frequently, actually, it's called "Hourly Pricing." I've been in that program for a couple of years, and it generally saves me a couple hundred $$$ a year.

Lots of people must be running space heaters or something. This morning was -14F/-26 WC. The gas bill will already be seasonally high, don't really need to pair it with an unreasonably high electric bill.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by LordMortis »

jztemple2 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 11:12 am
Jeff V wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:59 am
dbt1949 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:12 am Next week I die from a heart attack when I get the electric bill.
I've been getting daily high price alerts from ComEd since Saturday. I'm being asked to delay the use of appliances. First 2 days, no problem since I was out of town. Becoming a problem now on day 5.
?? High price alerts? Do they change what they charge you from day to day?
CNBC has been talking about this for Texas for the last two days and that they believe some people will be seeing $9,000 basis per magawatt bill passed on to them, where the price that is usually paid is $70 per megawatt. They said in terms of gasoline, it would be like paying $800 a gallon at the pump.
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Re: Winter 2020-21 is coming

Post by Jaymon »

Becuase when a storm hits, and you are only providing service to 46% of your customers, the best plan is to charge those customers 10x prices.
And if they don't like it, they can go with another provider, right?
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