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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Defiant
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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:53 pm

Here's the whole deal: The president's Chicago residence is in Illinois' 1st Congressional District, which is represented by Bobby Rush. If Rush were to step aside in 2018—not entirely implausible, as he turns 70 today and has served in the House since 1993—Obama could run for Rush's seat while campaigning nationally for other Democratic House candidates on the premise that he'd be selected as Speaker if the party won a majority.
link

Would he want to do that, though?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:55 pm

Defiant wrote:
Here's the whole deal: The president's Chicago residence is in Illinois' 1st Congressional District, which is represented by Bobby Rush. If Rush were to step aside in 2018—not entirely implausible, as he turns 70 today and has served in the House since 1993—Obama could run for Rush's seat while campaigning nationally for other Democratic House candidates on the premise that he'd be selected as Speaker if the party won a majority.
link

Would he want to do that, though?
Spoiler:
No.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Tue Nov 29, 2016 1:56 am

Why have him run for Rush's seat? The House majority can elect anyone they want to be Speaker. House Democrats could pledge to make Obama the Speaker without running him for a specific district, and just vote him in upon taking the majority. He wouldn't have a vote on the floor, but he'd still have all the other powers of the Speakership.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:09 am

Fireball wrote:Why have him run for Rush's seat? The House majority can elect anyone they want to be Speaker. House Democrats could pledge to make Obama the Speaker without running him for a specific district, and just vote him in upon taking the majority. He wouldn't have a vote on the floor, but he'd still have all the other powers of the Speakership.
Wow, they can do that? Thanks, I learned something.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Tue Nov 29, 2016 2:11 am

The Constitution specifies that the Speaker shall be chosen *by* the House, but not *from* the House. There was talk in 2000, when the election debacle looked like it could bleed into January, of House Republicans electing Bush to be Speaker, so that he would then become Acting President at noon on January 20, if the dispute had not been resolved by that point.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Hamlet3145 » Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:03 pm

I live in Maine so 2018 means no more Gov. Paul LePage. :horse: (Due to term limits he can't even run).

It will also be our first go round with our newly approved ranked choice voting so that should be interesting.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:12 pm

Don't worry. I'm sure LePage will challenge Angus King in the Senate race.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:00 am

Good news yesterday for the Democrats in that Joe Manchin announced that he's going to seek re-election in 2018. There were a lot of rumors that he might take a position in Trump's cabinet, so the news that he's not going to and is not going to leave the Senate either is a huge relief. Right now Manchin (who is pretty popular in the state) is probably a favorite (though not prohibitive) to win re-election. A new democrat trying to win the seat would probably have a -30% chance.

Next question is whether Heitkamp is going to seek reelection in North Dakota, as that's another seat where the democrats' only hope is the magical power of incumbency.


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Max Peck » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:06 am

When you're thinking about the 2018 elections (and beyond), don't assume that they'll be fair contests.

Do voter identification laws suppress minority voting? Yes. We did the research.
The Justice Department just got a new boss: Jeff Sessions. He is raising alarms in the civil rights community. The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights is concerned about his “record of hostility” toward the Voting Rights Act and the enforcement of civil rights. The NAACP-Legal Defense Fund lamented that it is “unimaginable that he could be entrusted to serve as the chief law enforcement officer for this nation’s civil rights laws.” No one knows for sure how Sessions will perform as attorney general — the former Republican senator from Alabama did, after all, once vote to renew the Voting Rights Act, in 2006 — but for many his record is deeply troubling.

What we do know is that voter identification laws are spreading rapidly around the country. Before 2006, no state required photo identification to vote on Election Day. Today 10 states have this requirement. All told, a total of 33 states — representing more than half the nation’s population — have some version of voter identification rules on the books.

As we detail below, our research shows that these laws lower minority turnout and benefit the Republican Party.

[...]

When we compare overall turnout in states with strict ID laws to turnout in states without these laws, we find no significant difference. That pattern matches with most existing studies. But when we dig deeper and look specifically at racial and ethnic minority turnout, we see a significant drop in minority participation when and where these laws are implemented.

Hispanics are affected the most: Turnout is 7.1 percentage points lower in general elections and 5.3 points lower in primaries in strict ID states than it is in other states. Strict ID laws mean lower African American, Asian American and multiracial American turnout as well. White turnout is largely unaffected.

[...]

All of this, of course, has real political consequences. Because minority voters tend to be Democrats, strict voter ID laws tilt the primary electorate dramatically.

All else equal, when strict ID laws are instituted, the turnout gap between Republicans and Democrats in primary contests more than doubles from 4.3 points to 9.8 points. Likewise, the turnout gap between conservative and liberal voters more than doubles from 7.7 to 20.4 points.

By instituting strict voter ID laws, states can alter the electorate and shift outcomes toward those on the right. Where these laws are enacted, the influence of Democrats and liberals wanes and the power of Republicans grows. Unsurprisingly, these strict ID laws are passed almost exclusively by Republican legislatures.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Carpet_pissr » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:07 am

Well there's a shocker. :p

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:25 am

Wait, are they saying that the laws do the thing that people have spent a lot of time and energy designing them to do?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Max Peck » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:10 pm

El Guapo wrote:Wait, are they saying that the laws do the thing that people have spent a lot of time and energy designing them to do?
They're proving it, and quantifying it, instead of just saying it.

Of course, this was before the federal DoJ switched sides. Things will undoubtedly improve going forward, from a certain point of view.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:55 pm

Max Peck wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Wait, are they saying that the laws do the thing that people have spent a lot of time and energy designing them to do?
They're proving it, and quantifying it, instead of just saying it.

Of course, this was before the federal DoJ switched sides. Things will undoubtedly improve going forward, from a certain point of view.
That's true, and that's important.

The Court of Appeals decisions on these points have been pretty good so far, and state AGs should pick up here the DoJ left off (albeit with less resources as a general matter). The bigger concern is that unless Gorsuch is better on this than I expect, there's a pretty good chance that there's a terrible Supreme Court decision on these laws coming at some point this year or early next year.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Max Peck » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:39 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Max Peck wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Wait, are they saying that the laws do the thing that people have spent a lot of time and energy designing them to do?
They're proving it, and quantifying it, instead of just saying it.

Of course, this was before the federal DoJ switched sides. Things will undoubtedly improve going forward, from a certain point of view.
That's true, and that's important.

The Court of Appeals decisions on these points have been pretty good so far, and state AGs should pick up here the DoJ left off (albeit with less resources as a general matter). The bigger concern is that unless Gorsuch is better on this than I expect, there's a pretty good chance that there's a terrible Supreme Court decision on these laws coming at some point this year or early next year.
The problem with hoping that state AGs will save the day is that in the states where this is happening the AGs are Republicans, no? Blue-state AGs aren't going to be able to prevent red states from going the way of NC.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:52 pm

Max Peck wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Max Peck wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Wait, are they saying that the laws do the thing that people have spent a lot of time and energy designing them to do?
They're proving it, and quantifying it, instead of just saying it.

Of course, this was before the federal DoJ switched sides. Things will undoubtedly improve going forward, from a certain point of view.
That's true, and that's important.

The Court of Appeals decisions on these points have been pretty good so far, and state AGs should pick up here the DoJ left off (albeit with less resources as a general matter). The bigger concern is that unless Gorsuch is better on this than I expect, there's a pretty good chance that there's a terrible Supreme Court decision on these laws coming at some point this year or early next year.
The problem with hoping that state AGs will save the day is that in the states where this is happening the AGs are Republicans, no? Blue-state AGs aren't going to be able to prevent red states from going the way of NC.
Right, but the ACLU can in those states, citing the Court of Appeals decisions.

At least, until the SCOTUS crushes everyone's hopes and dreams 5-4.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Scoop20906 » Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:26 am

Hamlet3145 wrote:I live in Maine so 2018 means no more Gov. Paul LePage. :horse: (Due to term limits he can't even run).

It will also be our first go round with our newly approved ranked choice voting so that should be interesting.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Paingod » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:02 am

I'm so confused. When I became an adult, I discovered a lot of things required a basic ID - drivers license or state ID. When I registered to vote, they needed my ID. When I showed up to vote, they didn't and I actually thought that was strange. I need to prove I'm over 18 to buy tobacco. I need to prove I'm over 21 to buy alcohol or marijuana. I don't need to show even basic proof that I am who I say I am in order to cast a vote and help decide the fate of a nation?

Call me ignorant, but how is this voter suppression? To say that anyone who wants to vote should have some kind of legal ID doesn't seem absurd. They also need ID to legally drive to the polls or even legally become employed in most places.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by msteelers » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:13 am

I'll let the ACLU explain.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by msteelers » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:24 am

And, there's real world evidence that shows that not only are voter suppression laws aimed at minority groups that tend to vote for democrats, but that it actually works and has helped the GOP win elections.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:56 am

Paingod wrote:I'm so confused. When I became an adult, I discovered a lot of things required a basic ID - drivers license or state ID. When I registered to vote, they needed my ID. When I showed up to vote, they didn't and I actually thought that was strange. I need to prove I'm over 18 to buy tobacco. I need to prove I'm over 21 to buy alcohol or marijuana. I don't need to show even basic proof that I am who I say I am in order to cast a vote and help decide the fate of a nation?

Call me ignorant, but how is this voter suppression? To say that anyone who wants to vote should have some kind of legal ID doesn't seem absurd. They also need ID to legally drive to the polls or even legally become employed in most places.
You're presuming that the lives of poor people who live in urban areas are like yours. They are not. When you're dealing with people who don't have bank accounts, who don't own cars, who don't fly, who buy their alcohol and cigarettes in stores that don't check IDs, you're going to find that a significant minority don't have photo IDs. They particularly don't have the very restricted number of photo ID types that are allowable as "proof of ID" under voter ID laws.

It is also often very difficult for them to get those IDs, as most drivers license offices are distributed based on density of drivers, and so are more prevalent in upper and middle class neighborhoods, are open "normal business hours" and thus inaccessible by people who work multiple low-wage jobs to make ends meet, and require often-expensive documentation as qualification for IDs. That's before you try to deal with the fact that many black people over the age of 50 or so in many Southern states don't have birth certificates, and thus would never be able to get a driver's license or state ID under the Federal "Real ID" law.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:10 am

Also, it's not that you *couldn't* write a voter ID law that doesn't suppress the right to vote. The issues that Fireball laid out that keep some people from being able to get IDs are surmountable - at its most fundamental level you could find a way to make IDs for people and give them to everyone essentially for free.

But modern voter ID laws are not written to address any issues with voting. They're specifically written for partisan advantage, because they're written in a way to make it more difficult for poor people and minorities to vote, with the understanding that the people who are less likely to vote are also less likely to vote Republican. On this you can read some of the court decisions from the past year or so (especially the NC decision) on this.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:13 am

El Guapo wrote:Also, it's not that you *couldn't* write a voter ID law that doesn't suppress the right to vote. The issues that Fireball laid out that keep some people from being able to get IDs are surmountable - at its most fundamental level you could find a way to make IDs for people and give them to everyone essentially for free.

But modern voter ID laws are not written to address any issues with voting. They're specifically written for partisan advantage, because they're written in a way to make it more difficult for poor people and minorities to vote, with the understanding that the people who are less likely to vote are also less likely to vote Republican. On this you can read some of the court decisions from the past year or so (especially the NC decision) on this.
Yup. When I was a staffer in the Texas Legislature, we offered amendments to address most of these concerns: requiring the state to issue birth certificates at no cost, providing a grace period for women who change their names when married or people who move within the same county, and requiring offices that issue those voter IDs to be present in all communities and open extended hours on certain weekdays and 9-5 on Saturdays, but Republicans voted down those proposed amendments on party line votes. Why? Because the fact that certain types of people would face far greater hardship acquiring an ID than others is not a bug, it's a feature.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Rip » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:31 am

Here is something to think about for 2018.

Senator Ted Nugent.

Image

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by hepcat » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:44 am

I assume that makes you happy.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:46 am

Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Paingod » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:50 am

I had no idea that there is a problem in the south with older people not having birth records - but there must be some way for them to get ID. If there ever was a record of birth, you can get it for $15 without prior ID, in Alabama, as an example. If there's absolutely no way for these people to get Photo ID's, then yes - that's a real problem, but one that needs to be addressed outside the scope of voting rights. If my house burned down and I had absolutely no proof of who I was left anywhere, there's still means and methods to rebuild the trail of ID.

As a vehicle-less and poor (working one part time job) teenager living in an urban area, one of my first goals when I left home was to get a State ID (not even a driver's license). I had a checking account where my $5/hr wage was deposited weekly by hand, but could have traded $15 with a friend who had one for a check that I could mail in. I didn't think it was a particularly onerous challenge, and despite the fact that I didn't drink or smoke, it seemed like a really good thing to invest my time in getting. If I had to schedule a day off work to get my ID, I would have done it. It only needs to be renewed once every few years. I don't think they make this process any harder based on skin color. We're talking about a single day of effort to maintain this every few years at most. I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.

It sounds like there are two sides to the problem - one side being people who can't be bothered to get an ID, and the other side being lawmakers willing to exploit that.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:56 am

WaPo
In 2012, a federal court in Washington concluded that the burden of obtaining a state voter-ID certificate would weigh disproportionately on minorities living in poverty, with many having to travel as much as 200 to 250 miles round trip.

“That law will almost certainly have retrogressive effect: it imposes strict, unforgiving burdens on the poor, and racial minorities in Texas are disproportionately likely to live in poverty,” wrote David S. Tatel, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, in the panel’s 56-page opinion.
...
Many of the residents struggling to obtain a valid photo ID are elderly and poor and were born in homes rather than hospitals. As a result, birth certificates were often lost or names were misspelled in official city records.
...
“I hear from people nearly weekly who can’t get an ID either because of poverty, transportation issues or because of the government’s incompetence,” said Chad W. Dunn, a lawyer with Brazil & Dunn in Houston, who has specialized in voting rights work for 15 years.

“Sometimes government officials don’t know what the law requires,” Dunn said. “People take a day off work to go down to get the so-called free birth certificates. People who are poor, with no car and no Internet access, get up, take the bus, transfer a couple of times, stand in line for an hour and then are told they don’t have the right documents or it will cost them money they don’t have.”

“A lot of them just give up,” Dunn said.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West » Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:57 am

Paingod wrote:I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.
Your imagination needs some work. Or a visit to poverty level where the choice becomes do I go to work every second I can so that I have a roof and a meager amount of food or do I go stand in line for ID.
It sounds like there are two sides to the problem - one side being people who can't be bothered to get an ID, and the other side being lawmakers willing to exploit that.
I'm sure some of it is can not be bothered but there are way too many folks who literally can not afford it. The $15 dollars you mention is an enormous amount for many many people.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by ImLawBoy » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:00 pm

Remus West wrote:Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
I saw (probably a Twitter) a proposal that the Rs should run Kid Rock, the Ds should run Eminem, and their debates should be freestyle. I'd support that.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by ImLawBoy » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:06 pm

Paingod wrote:I had no idea that there is a problem in the south with older people not having birth records - but there must be some way for them to get ID. If there ever was a record of birth, you can get it for $15 without prior ID, in Alabama, as an example. If there's absolutely no way for these people to get Photo ID's, then yes - that's a real problem, but one that needs to be addressed outside the scope of voting rights. If my house burned down and I had absolutely no proof of who I was left anywhere, there's still means and methods to rebuild the trail of ID.

As a vehicle-less and poor (working one part time job) teenager living in an urban area, one of my first goals when I left home was to get a State ID (not even a driver's license). I had a checking account where my $5/hr wage was deposited weekly by hand, but could have traded $15 with a friend who had one for a check that I could mail in. I didn't think it was a particularly onerous challenge, and despite the fact that I didn't drink or smoke, it seemed like a really good thing to invest my time in getting. If I had to schedule a day off work to get my ID, I would have done it. It only needs to be renewed once every few years. I don't think they make this process any harder based on skin color. We're talking about a single day of effort to maintain this every few years at most. I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.

It sounds like there are two sides to the problem - one side being people who can't be bothered to get an ID, and the other side being lawmakers willing to exploit that.
When discussing the issue of voter ID, it's really important to note that those supporting voter ID laws are trying to legislate against a problem that simply doesn't exist. There's simply no proof of any significant voter fraud. If you do a cost-benefit analysis of voter ID laws, it looks a lot like this:

Pro: Miniscule amount of voter fraud potentially stopped

Con: Potentially significant number of people disenfranchised

The balance isn't there to justify the potential disenfranchisement of so many people. (Even more so when you consider that anyone who wanted to have mass voter fraud would probably be able to round up some fake IDs pretty easily.) Taking the vote away from people to solve a problem that doesn't exist is not a good idea.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:08 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:
Remus West wrote:Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
I saw (probably a Twitter) a proposal that the Rs should run Kid Rock, the Ds should run Eminem, and their debates should be freestyle. I'd support that.
Well at least then both candidates would be equally qualified and both would certainly push for full legalization of weed in the state.
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malchior
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior » Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:45 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:
Paingod wrote:I had no idea that there is a problem in the south with older people not having birth records - but there must be some way for them to get ID. If there ever was a record of birth, you can get it for $15 without prior ID, in Alabama, as an example. If there's absolutely no way for these people to get Photo ID's, then yes - that's a real problem, but one that needs to be addressed outside the scope of voting rights. If my house burned down and I had absolutely no proof of who I was left anywhere, there's still means and methods to rebuild the trail of ID.

As a vehicle-less and poor (working one part time job) teenager living in an urban area, one of my first goals when I left home was to get a State ID (not even a driver's license). I had a checking account where my $5/hr wage was deposited weekly by hand, but could have traded $15 with a friend who had one for a check that I could mail in. I didn't think it was a particularly onerous challenge, and despite the fact that I didn't drink or smoke, it seemed like a really good thing to invest my time in getting. If I had to schedule a day off work to get my ID, I would have done it. It only needs to be renewed once every few years. I don't think they make this process any harder based on skin color. We're talking about a single day of effort to maintain this every few years at most. I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.

It sounds like there are two sides to the problem - one side being people who can't be bothered to get an ID, and the other side being lawmakers willing to exploit that.
When discussing the issue of voter ID, it's really important to note that those supporting voter ID laws are trying to legislate against a problem that simply doesn't exist. There's simply no proof of any significant voter fraud. If you do a cost-benefit analysis of voter ID laws, it looks a lot like this:

Pro: Miniscule amount of voter fraud potentially stopped

Con: Potentially significant number of people disenfranchised

The balance isn't there to justify the potential disenfranchisement of so many people. (Even more so when you consider that anyone who wanted to have mass voter fraud would probably be able to round up some fake IDs pretty easily.) Taking the vote away from people to solve a problem that doesn't exist is not a good idea.
And this is also why people get very upset when Trump makes up shit about voter fraud in huge numbers. One the President is *flat out lying* and two it emboldens these type of shenanigans. There has been a slow creeping, long play grab at power that is really coming into focus now. They disenfranchise the vote and they have gerrymandered a significant House of Representatives advantage. When people say but Senators and Governors are state-wide votes the disenfranchisement kicks in. Our system is becoming more undemocratic and polarized and this is significant part of the effort and a major "Con" as well.

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Fireball
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fireball » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:45 pm

Paingod wrote:If my house burned down and I had absolutely no proof of who I was left anywhere, there's still means and methods to rebuild the trail of ID.
The state would still have a record of your birth, which is the document you need to secure a Real ID-compatible state ID. For many black southerners, there is no birth certificate. They do not have the fundamental documentation needed to even begin the process, and can never obtain it.
As a vehicle-less and poor (working one part time job) teenager living in an urban area, one of my first goals when I left home was to get a State ID (not even a driver's license). I had a checking account where my $5/hr wage was deposited weekly by hand, but could have traded $15 with a friend who had one for a check that I could mail in. I didn't think it was a particularly onerous challenge, and despite the fact that I didn't drink or smoke, it seemed like a really good thing to invest my time in getting. If I had to schedule a day off work to get my ID, I would have done it. It only needs to be renewed once every few years. I don't think they make this process any harder based on skin color. We're talking about a single day of effort to maintain this every few years at most. I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.
If you're a poor person who lives in the southern part of Dallas, it would cost you more than $50 (or almost 7 hours at minimum wage) to get a copy of your birth certificate by mail (or basically eight hours — or almost $60 in lost wages — if you go through the in-person "free copy" process), and three hours on the bus both ways to get to the nearest driver's license office (or about $45 worth of lost wages) and an hour or so in line (another $10). That's $100 or more to get the ID — just once. The working poor are more likely to move often, and there are only a limited number of times you can change your address before you have to go and get your picture redone, meaning this become a recurring expense every couple of years. For a poor family that lives hand to mouth, that's an untenable expense that could make the difference between covering all of their bills or not.

Somehow I don't consider struggling to make this happen a sign of "laziness." Something that's not a challenge to a teenager who's not a family's primary breadwinner can be an insurmountable problem to someone who is.
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Kurth
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Kurth » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:52 pm

Remus West wrote:
ImLawBoy wrote:
Remus West wrote:Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
I saw (probably a Twitter) a proposal that the Rs should run Kid Rock, the Ds should run Eminem, and their debates should be freestyle. I'd support that.
Well at least then both candidates would be equally qualified and both would certainly push for full legalization of weed in the state.
Hold up . . . "both candidates would be equally qualified"?????? Kid Rock is no Eminem. :hand:
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Remus West
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Remus West » Fri Feb 17, 2017 1:56 pm

Kurth wrote:
Remus West wrote:
ImLawBoy wrote:
Remus West wrote:Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
I saw (probably a Twitter) a proposal that the Rs should run Kid Rock, the Ds should run Eminem, and their debates should be freestyle. I'd support that.
Well at least then both candidates would be equally qualified and both would certainly push for full legalization of weed in the state.
Hold up . . . "both candidates would be equally qualified"?????? Kid Rock is no Eminem. :hand:
Neither belong in government. Admittedly I would vote for Mr. Mathers but that is likely due to bias.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Paingod
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Paingod » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:11 pm

Fireball wrote:The state would still have a record of your birth, which is the document you need to secure a Real ID-compatible state ID. For many black southerners, there is no birth certificate. They do not have the fundamental documentation needed to even begin the process, and can never obtain it.
I did pre-address that in an earlier post, and think the issue should be addressed in and of itself somehow. I don't have that answer though. Not being able to prove who you are doesn't just "limit" your choice, it flat-out removes many of them.
Fireball wrote:Something that's not a challenge to a teenager who's not a family's primary breadwinner can be an insurmountable problem to someone who is.
Not interested in a game of "Who's Poorer?" but at the time I was living with room mates and paying my way through life on 32 hours a week at minimum wage. I always found a way to do what I needed to do. I do consider having valid ID a pretty essential part of being a functional adult, but that's apparently more a luxury than I ever imagined. Everything from alcohol to work to doctor's offices seem to require it, let alone possibly voting.
ImLawBoy wrote:The balance isn't there to justify the potential disenfranchisement of so many people. (Even more so when you consider that anyone who wanted to have mass voter fraud would probably be able to round up some fake IDs pretty easily.) Taking the vote away from people to solve a problem that doesn't exist is not a good idea.
I can completely get behind that. It's not broken, and a lot of effort is going into "fixing" it, and that fix ultimately only serves to benefit the fixers.
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gilraen
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by gilraen » Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:25 pm

Remus West wrote:
Kurth wrote:
Remus West wrote:
ImLawBoy wrote:
Remus West wrote:Republicans in Michigan have also been floating the idea of Senator Kid Rock. Good to know they are looking for folks that are knowledgeable more than recognizable. :roll:
I saw (probably a Twitter) a proposal that the Rs should run Kid Rock, the Ds should run Eminem, and their debates should be freestyle. I'd support that.
Well at least then both candidates would be equally qualified and both would certainly push for full legalization of weed in the state.
Hold up . . . "both candidates would be equally qualified"?????? Kid Rock is no Eminem. :hand:
Neither belong in government. Admittedly I would vote for Mr. Mathers but that is likely due to bias.
Neither does Trump but here we are.

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Pyperkub
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Pyperkub » Sun Feb 19, 2017 6:20 pm

ImLawBoy wrote:
Paingod wrote:I had no idea that there is a problem in the south with older people not having birth records - but there must be some way for them to get ID. If there ever was a record of birth, you can get it for $15 without prior ID, in Alabama, as an example. If there's absolutely no way for these people to get Photo ID's, then yes - that's a real problem, but one that needs to be addressed outside the scope of voting rights. If my house burned down and I had absolutely no proof of who I was left anywhere, there's still means and methods to rebuild the trail of ID.

As a vehicle-less and poor (working one part time job) teenager living in an urban area, one of my first goals when I left home was to get a State ID (not even a driver's license). I had a checking account where my $5/hr wage was deposited weekly by hand, but could have traded $15 with a friend who had one for a check that I could mail in. I didn't think it was a particularly onerous challenge, and despite the fact that I didn't drink or smoke, it seemed like a really good thing to invest my time in getting. If I had to schedule a day off work to get my ID, I would have done it. It only needs to be renewed once every few years. I don't think they make this process any harder based on skin color. We're talking about a single day of effort to maintain this every few years at most. I can't imagine a life so hard that you can't spend a couple hours standing in line at the DMV (where they issue State Photo ID's, not just driver's licenses) once every 6 years.

It sounds like there are two sides to the problem - one side being people who can't be bothered to get an ID, and the other side being lawmakers willing to exploit that.
When discussing the issue of voter ID, it's really important to note that those supporting voter ID laws are trying to legislate against a problem that simply doesn't exist. There's simply no proof of any significant voter fraud. If you do a cost-benefit analysis of voter ID laws, it looks a lot like this:

Pro: Miniscule amount of voter fraud potentially stopped

Con: Potentially significant number of people disenfranchised

The balance isn't there to justify the potential disenfranchisement of so many people. (Even more so when you consider that anyone who wanted to have mass voter fraud would probably be able to round up some fake IDs pretty easily.) Taking the vote away from people to solve a problem that doesn't exist is not a good idea.
Con #2: multiple Republicans have been caught saying the reason for voter ID is explicitly to make it harder for some citizens to vote.
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by LordMortis » Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:24 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6lJtUpf3pU

If I were a democrat, I'd debate throwing my hat in for him.

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