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Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:27 pm

Paingod wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:27 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:08 pm
His supporters (the masses) don't interact with him personally, by and large.
"Cruz?" they mutter to themselves, "That's a kind of missile, ain't it? I like missiles." ... and so they vote for him.
It's Texas, remember.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:02 pm

Paingod wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 3:27 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Tue Sep 25, 2018 10:08 pm
His supporters (the masses) don't interact with him personally, by and large.
"Cruz?" they mutter to themselves, "That's a kind of missile, ain't it? I like missiles." ... and so they vote for him.
I expect his name helps him among the Hispanic voters, since he polls higher among them than the usual Republican (a recent poll I saw had him pulling 45+% among Hispanics)

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:19 am

Two Democratic House Candidates Raised Millions in Third Quarter
The high fundraising totals, unusual but not unprecedented for challengers, are a sign of Democratic enthusiasm as the party seeks to pick up at least the 23 seats that would give it a majority in the chamber. The fundraising comes in close districts Democrats will need to win in November.

There may be bigger totals to come. Candidates aren’t required to release third quarter fundraising totals to the Federal Election Commission until Oct. 15.
and...


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:51 am

Cruz is finished. It looks like O'Rourke may have locked up the key endorsement from the Iranian government:


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:04 am

College Station, Texas (Aggie town)
A civil rights group is investigating reports of a fake mailer circulating in College Station that warns of a $500 fine for displaying signs supporting U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke.

The letter, recently obtained by the Texas Civil Rights Project, features a “CITATION WARNING,” “quick facts about” O’Rourke and a ”‘BETO’ REALITY CHECK” that includes the comments “NOT HISPANIC,” “FELONY ARREST RECORD,” “INSIDER TRADING VIOLATIONS,” “FATHER’S DRUG SCANDAL” and “FAMILY BUSINESS FEDERALLY PROSECUTED,” according to images of the letter the organization shared on social media Tuesday. The letter appears to end with “These issues have not been effectively reported to Texas voters.”

The envelope for the letter had a fake Austin return address, the organization’s voting rights legal director, Beth Stevens, told the American-Statesman. It appears the letter was processed and sent through a post office in North Houston, she said.
...
Stevens said the organization has contacted the Texas secretary of state’s office and might work with a law enforcement agency on the matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Thu Oct 04, 2018 1:14 pm


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:13 pm

This image is from Denmark with regard to the 2016 presidential election. I thought I'd drop it in here just because. It has probably already been posted on the forum somewhere. Here it is again.

Enlarge Image

edit: Bah.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:27 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 3:13 pm
This image is from Denmark with regard to the 20016 presidential election.
Wow, that's thinking ahead.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Jaymann » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:13 pm

Too soon to start thinking about 20018?
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Apollo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm

Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(

Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm

Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
Well, it's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Apollo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm

Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?

And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.

The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Drazzil » Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:14 pm

Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
i don't read the news or talk politics anymore in real life. Its too depressing. We need a revolution a revolt or a popular coup to really put things back on track.

Our government needs to be afraid of its people to be truly representative. Afraid either of the next election, or, afraid of the pitchforks and torches.

US politicians are neither. They have learned that they can blame some "other" group for its own dysfunction, and things keep rolling forward till the wheels fall off.

I'm kinda hoping for a major economic collapse to show people up close that our politicians and government are truly shitty, however I worry that once that happens, people wont be in much of a mood to follow legal process.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:31 pm

Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(

Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
Melting away? It's fairly ambiguous.
True to form, there have been some of the same sorts of arguments about the polls that I’m used to in presidential years, with competing narratives that may or may not square with the data. One plausible narrative is that the Kavanaugh hearings are helping to excite Republican voters and reduce the “enthusiasm gap” with Democrats. As The Upshot’s Nate Cohn points out, you can cobble together a credible case that polls since last Thursday’s Senate hearings have been comparatively good for Republicans. You could cite, for example, cite two new North Dakota polls showing Democratic incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp down by double digits, or the several polls showing a close-ish Senate race in New Jersey, or a Quinnipiac University poll showing Democrats’ generic ballot lead down to 7 points from 14 points previously, or Upshot/Siena College polls showing GOP incumbents holding up well in districts in southwestern Ohio and coastal Virginia.

By the same measure, if you were trying to cite a series of strong Democratic polls since the hearings, you wouldn’t have much problem. You could highlight recent polls showing good numbers for West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, or several recent surveys that found Florida Sen. Bill Nelson having taken a small lead, or an Ipsos poll showing Democrats expanding their lead on the generic ballot since the hearings, or double-digit leads for Democrats in Upshot/Siena polls of congressional districts in Arizona and Minnesota. And there are some plausible stories behind this hypothesis, too. Kavanaugh was not a popular pick to begin with, and he has become more unpopular still in some (although not all) polls. He’s also particularly unpopular with groups such as college-educated women who typically turn out at high rates at the midterms.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:47 am

Drazzil wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:14 pm

i don't read the news or talk politics anymore in real life. Its too depressing. We need a revolution a revolt or a popular coup to really put things back on track.

Our government needs to be afraid of its people to be truly representative. Afraid either of the next election, or, afraid of the pitchforks and torches.

US politicians are neither. They have learned that they can blame some "other" group for its own dysfunction, and things keep rolling forward till the wheels fall off.

I'm kinda hoping for a major economic collapse to show people up close that our politicians and government are truly shitty, however I worry that once that happens, people wont be in much of a mood to follow legal process.
Everything you're saying leads to the worst possible result for a people seeking justice, liberty, and self-determination.

Bloody revolutions produce dictatorships. Economic collapse produces fascism.

Fantasies of sharp radical solutions are a big part of the problem.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:48 pm

Holman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:47 am
Everything you're saying leads to the worst possible result for a people seeking justice, liberty, and self-determination.

Bloody revolutions produce dictatorships. Economic collapse produces fascism.

Fantasies of sharp radical solutions are a big part of the problem.
I don't want to undercut your point, which is more often true than not true, but France and the USA would like a word with you.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Defiant » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:22 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:48 pm

I don't want to undercut your point, which is more often true than not true, but France and the USA would like a word with you.
I'm not an expert on french history, but wouldn't that be an odd counterexample because, you know, Napoleon?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:46 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:22 pm
GreenGoo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:48 pm

I don't want to undercut your point, which is more often true than not true, but France and the USA would like a word with you.
I'm not an expert on french history, but wouldn't that be an odd counterexample because, you know, Napoleon?
Plus the French Revolution wasn't an armed revolution.

The main reason why the American Revolution was an exception to the general rule that "armed revolutions produce dictatorships" is that the colonies basically already had their own democratic institutions / legislatures / etc., and they were fighting to preserve those. In some ways (though not legally) it was more akin to resisting an armed invasion than your typical "overthrow the government" armed revolution.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:49 pm

Defiant wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:22 pm
GreenGoo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:48 pm

I don't want to undercut your point, which is more often true than not true, but France and the USA would like a word with you.
I'm not an expert on french history, but wouldn't that be an odd counterexample because, you know, Napoleon?
No. It was a Republic after the revolution *then* Napoleon happened.

As for armed vs. unarmed, if people are getting murdered during it, it's an armed revolution, even if armies aren't fighting in the street. You don't have to agree with that, but it certainly wasn't bloodless, which I think is the more important point.

I'm not going to argue about the particulars of the American revolution with Americans. We're in agreement that it didn't produce a dictatorship, and that was my only point.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:19 pm

Just to throw 2 more cents in:

The French Revolution produced the Terror, which was a nightmare on every level. Napoleon was the authoritarian reaction sweeping in to pick up the pieces after exploiting the instability of the Directorate.

The American Revolution was (as El Guapo points out) really a War of Independence.

It's hard to think of any violent political revolutions that haven't left people worse off than before. The obvious examples are the soft post-Soviet revolutions of Eastern Europe, but these were again populations united in separation from an outside power, itself in the peculiar political position of being unable to context the breaks militarily.

Anything that could be called a revolutionary outbreak in the present American context would very quickly become a civil war.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:24 pm

Holman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:19 pm
Just to throw 2 more cents in:

The French Revolution produced the Terror, which was a nightmare on every level. Napoleon was the authoritarian reaction sweeping in to pick up the pieces after exploiting the instability of the Directorate.

The American Revolution was (as El Guapo points out) really a War of Independence.

It's hard to think of any violent political revolutions that haven't left people worse off than before. The obvious examples are the soft post-Soviet revolutions of Eastern Europe, but these were again populations united in separation from an outside power, itself in the peculiar political position of being unable to context the breaks militarily.

Anything that could be called a revolutionary outbreak in the present American context would very quickly become a civil war.
Also the post-Soviet revolutions weren't violent. Some protesters getting shot during the course of a mass movement does not make the revolution violent - that definition would make literally every revolution violent, because even the most peaceful movement against a government provokes at least *some* violence.

Point is just that peaceful revolutions have a decent track record in producing democratic governments (though far from 100% of the time). Violent / armed revolutions have an extremely dismal record in producing democratic governments (the American Revolution being as far as I'm aware the only arguable exception, but as I mentioned there are reasons for why that was the case).

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Holman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:27 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:24 pm
Holman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:19 pm
Just to throw 2 more cents in:

The French Revolution produced the Terror, which was a nightmare on every level. Napoleon was the authoritarian reaction sweeping in to pick up the pieces after exploiting the instability of the Directorate.

The American Revolution was (as El Guapo points out) really a War of Independence.

It's hard to think of any violent political revolutions that haven't left people worse off than before. The obvious examples are the soft post-Soviet revolutions of Eastern Europe, but these were again populations united in separation from an outside power, itself in the peculiar political position of being unable to context the breaks militarily.

Anything that could be called a revolutionary outbreak in the present American context would very quickly become a civil war.
Also the post-Soviet revolutions weren't violent.
Right. I clumsily failed to specify them as successful non-violent examples in contrast to violent ones, but that was my intention.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:51 pm

You have failed to convince me that all armed revolutions result in dictatorship. Since that was my sole point, that's the bar you're up against. Good luck with that.

There's a difference between rioting during civil unrest and summarily executing everyone in charge. You're free to disagree, but if you want to convince me you've got some work to do.

Reclassifying the American Revolution as the American War for Independence is a difference without meaning in this context.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Grifman » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pm

Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?

And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.

The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pm

Grifman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?

And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.

The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.
Are you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:46 pm

Grifman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pm
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn.
Maybe you could look at it that way if their goal was to undermine the process for both parties, forever. Is it really considered outplaying someone if you take a big dump in the only clean drinking water for both sides? (Note: I'm playing a lot of ONI right now).

My point is that they've ruined it long term for everyone, for short term gain. Way to go. Nicely played. :?

I will fully agree that the Dems should have been screaming bloody murder the moment McConnell refused to even meet regarding a nomination, and not stopped for the rest of Obama's term, at a minimum. They screwed that up, for sure.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Grifman » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 am

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pm
Grifman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?

And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.

The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.
Are you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?
I’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by Fretmute » Sat Oct 06, 2018 5:47 am

You’re being entirely too polite to the worst person in America.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by gbasden » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm

Yeah. So far I haven't seen limits to what they are willing to do in order to get their objectives met. If they were willing to steal a supreme court seat by sitting on it for a year, changing the filibuster rules to push their guy through doesn't exactly seem like a bridge too far.

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GreenGoo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:08 pm

gbasden wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm
Yeah. So far I haven't seen limits to what they are willing to do in order to get their objectives met. If they were willing to steal a supreme court seat by sitting on it for a year, changing the filibuster rules to push their guy through doesn't exactly seem like a bridge too far.
Both of those are clearly the Dems fault though.

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gbasden
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by gbasden » Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:25 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 2:08 pm
gbasden wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:59 pm
Yeah. So far I haven't seen limits to what they are willing to do in order to get their objectives met. If they were willing to steal a supreme court seat by sitting on it for a year, changing the filibuster rules to push their guy through doesn't exactly seem like a bridge too far.
Both of those are clearly the Dems fault though.
They are the root of what ails America, clearly.

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Sat Oct 06, 2018 10:43 pm

Grifman wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 am
El Guapo wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:21 pm
Grifman wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 9:10 pm
Holman wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:45 pm
Apollo wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:28 pm
Anyone else getting sick watching the Dems chance of taking over the House melting away on a daily basis thanks to the overblown opposition to Kavanaugh? :(
It's a lifetime on the Supreme Court. What level of measured opposition is appropriate to a shamelessly lying self-declared partisan credibly accused of sexual assault?
Where was all this hysteria when the GOP stole a Supreme Court justice a couple of years ago? :evil:
We were all of us naive enough to believe that the electorate would correct the problem. We have learned better.
The Dems leadership misplayed this hand from the beginning. Biggest mistake: Diane Feinstein holding onto the letter from Ford for weeks and only publicizing the issue at the last minute, which made it seem like a purely political ploy to damage Kavanaugh. Imagine if she had aired these allegations right away, before the GOP could dig-in to defend him as a matter of pride?

And I, for one, knew the Democrats were in big trouble in 2016 as I saw many lifelong Dems express open admiration for Trump. But then I live in a Red State, unlike most of the Liberals on this forum. And I still can't believe that nothing was done when the GOP refused to allow a vote on Merrick Garland. If I had been in charge we would have screamed bloody murder and publicized the issue at every opportunity. Instead, nothing was done because everyone was so overconfident that Hillary (The World's least charismatic politician) would win easily.

The root of many of the Democratic party's problems right now, IMHO, is an aging and out-of-touch leadership. Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstein, and most of the "Old Guard" need to step aside and let some new voices take leadership posts in the party.
I agree, the Republicans have been playing the long game, and have outplayed the Dems at every turn. The Dems revoked the judicial filibuster because Obama appointees were being blocked, rather than being patient, knowing the worm would turn at some point, and they could repay the Republicans in kind. With that in place, they could have done what the Republicans did to them, and blocked Trump’s appointees. They could have forced more moderate SC nominees. Now they are reaping the results of that short sighted action. It was a total disaster.
Are you saying that Mitch McConnell would not have abolished the judicial filibuster when the Democrats started using it? Do you recall that McConnell abolished the SCOTUS judicial filibuster as soon as it was an obstacle?
I’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.
Yes, yes he would have. No question at all. Don't forget that the reason that the Democrats nuked the judicial filibuster is because Republicans refused to confirm ANYONE for the D.C. Circuit, regardless of whether they were qualified or not. McConnell's excuse then? "Oh, we have enough judges already".

Yeah, villains need excuses, but McConnell doesn't need a good one.

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pr0ner
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by pr0ner » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:34 am

In a sign that the blue wave isn't ever reaching, in very Democratic leaning Maryland, incumbent Republican governor Larry Hogan (the 2nd most popular governor in the country behind Charlie Baker) currently has a 20 point lead in the polls over Democratic challenger Ben Jealous.

To be fair to Jealous, he won the Democratic nomination in an upset, but I don't think any Democrat really stood a chance against Hogan, even in a blue state like Maryland.
Hodor.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by hepcat » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:41 am

The guy's name is Ben Jealous? Good Lord, that name alone should be worth a win. The mileage one can get out of "Ben Jealous" is huge.
I beat a camel to death with a monkey. Can I do that?
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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:44 am

pr0ner wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:34 am
In a sign that the blue wave isn't ever reaching, in very Democratic leaning Maryland, incumbent Republican governor Larry Hogan (the 2nd most popular governor in the country behind Charlie Baker) currently has a 20 point lead in the polls over Democratic challenger Ben Jealous.

To be fair to Jealous, he won the Democratic nomination in an upset, but I don't think any Democrat really stood a chance against Hogan, even in a blue state like Maryland.
Governors races are completely different beasts from congressional races. That Hogan (and Baker in MA) are going to cruise to reelection doesn't tell us as much about the "blue wave" as does the congressional polling, special election results, etc.

Not that the blue wave will necessarily be sufficient, given the institutional obstacles. Though on the other hand, T-Swift endorsed the democratic candidates in TN, so those are now locks for the democrats.

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GreenGoo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:28 am

Not holding my breath.

malchior
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by malchior » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:31 am

Grifman wrote:
Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:01 am
I’m not forgetting anything. Are you forgetting that McConnell only abolished the SCOTUS filibuster AFTER the Dems had busted the judicial filibuster first? Going from no judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster is a much smaller leap than going from the judicial filibuster to no SCOTUS filibuster. The Dems opened the door to that. Would McConnell have taken both steps of breaking precedent? As much as I despise him, no, I don’t think he would have - that would have been a bridge too far. Even villains need excuses.
Sure you are factually correct but what you are talking about lacks context. Reid only dropped it after the Republicans blocked 80+ nominees to various positions. The GOP blocked as many nominees in 4 years as had pretty much *ever* happened before. So when you ask would McConnell have done it? Yes. Absolutely yes. He was already doing it. He blocked a SCOTUS seat from even having a hearing on some cocked up policy that he has been redefining ever sense to make it only break his way. When the rules don't favor his total desire for power, he changes them. How much evidence do we need that he is a complete monster?
Last edited by malchior on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

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El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:28 am
Not holding my breath.
Basically unless something changes dramatically the Democrats are going to gain seats in the House. The open ended question is whether they will gain enough for a majority. Right now a Democratic majority (going by polls and fundamentals) is probable but far from certain (538 puts it at a little under 80%).

In the Senate because there are very few Republican incumbents, a lot of Democratic incumbents, and a lot of Democratic incumbents in red states, the Democrats have a shot at a majority, but not a good one (~ 20%). Republicans have a decent shot at actually netting a seat or two above their current majority, though I think the most probable outcome is around a net of 0.

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GreenGoo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:38 am

Yeah, I realized my comment sounds like I'm expecting otherwise. I'm not.

I'm a "don't count your chickens" guy by nature, and drumpf reminded me why.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:42 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:38 am
Yeah, I realized my comment sounds like I'm expecting otherwise. I'm not.

I'm a "don't count your chickens" guy by nature, and drumpf reminded me why.
Oh, totally fair. Also (in part because Democrats are looking competitive-ish in a LOT of red / fringy kinds of districts, a lot of the available polling is super close in many districts (plus, there's not a wealth of polling in individual House races, or even a lot of Senate races). So given the thin margins and not full robust polling, a small nudge one way or the other close to the election could make a big difference - a nationwide swing of a point or two could be the difference between Democrats gaining (say) a dozen House seats (short of a majority) or gaining something like 50 - 80 seats (way above what they need).

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