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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Pyperkub » Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:03 pm

The Texas GOP is not good at teh cyber:
The Texas Republican Party mistakenly sent a document laying out their upcoming 2020 primary and general election plans to Democrats Monday evening, including a target list of 12 statehouse districts they are focusing negative ads on ahead of next year's elections. In a move The Dallas Morning News described as the party's latest "bizarre political blunder," the internal strategy email offered advice on how to counter the "narrative driven by Democrats" about the GOP's lack of diversity as well as a timeline for a rollout of websites which will bash specific Democratic opponents.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis » Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:51 pm

rittchard wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:46 pm
YellowKing wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:13 am
Smoove_B wrote:I just find it incredibly hard to believe people are or are not voting for Warren over her position on healthcare. Is the healthcare issue in the United States important? Absolutely. But we're on fire and in a death spiral right now.
If she was the only candidate, I'm sure people would vote for her over the flaming death spiral. But they have other options, and those other options aren't up there saying they're going to abolish your private health insurance.

I'm all for health care overhaul, but I have REALLY good insurance through my job. I have ZERO faith the government could swoop in, take it away, and replace it with something better. I'm all for helping people with no insurance get insurance. I'm all for helping people with overpriced insurance get affordable insurance. I draw the line, however, at fucking up my good insurance to achieve those goals. It's not that I'm unwilling to make sacrifices for the greater good; it's that I think there are other ways to accomplish those goals without breaking half the country to do so.
Totally agree with YK here. I don't love my insurance, but my company has somehow worked it out the past two years that they pay for it entirely. So in order for another system to be better for me, it would have to give me all the same benefits and PAY me lol. I'm guessing that's not going to happen.

As for Warren, I don't think it's being a woman that hurt her, to me it's more that she was campaigning so hard early on being the smartest one in the pack that has a plan for everything (and implying everyone else was lagging her on big bold ideas). And then having perhaps the most important plan of all her plans being called out for not being fully thought out, dodging to answer questions about it, and then having to backtrack on some of the biggest ideas in it. It's the old "wishy washy" "flip flop" thing, as well as the evasiveness, that I think really turns some people off.
Just be careful with your faith. I had a Cadillac plan I was happy to pay more of a share for if I had to. Two years ago they my company switched providers, switched agents, and raised costs to me. Out of the blue. Now I have what I guess would be a standard plan only I have to be much more proactive with my care. My carrier would be happy to let me start a treatment plan, wait two months and then deny it. They have also stopped covering treatments with no notification.

Still my selfishness for medicare for all is long term selfishness. I want that net when I can't get insured, when I leave a job, if I decide to work for someone who doesn't provide insurance, or take a sabbatical, or retire before 65, if I get too sick to work.

Employer sponsored health care is great so long as you can count on being employed by sponsor for healthcare. Our "disruptive" economy... Well, what ever happened to pensions... employer medical coverage after retirement... Employer/Employee loyalty...

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:08 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:51 pm
My carrier would be happy to let me start a treatment plan, wait two months and then deny it. They have also stopped covering treatments with no notification.
Appeal

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:18 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:08 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:51 pm
My carrier would be happy to let me start a treatment plan, wait two months and then deny it. They have also stopped covering treatments with no notification.
Appeal
I have. One thing my company did was get also hire an advocate and they rock. But it's pain. I have had to go them maybe six times in two years. But somethings, carriers can do. Like change formularaies with no notice. There is not a damned thing you can do about it. And a doctor is going to want you start a treatment right away, where as my carrier don't work that way. It's all a night mare, even though they describe themselves as a PPO and are actually rated highly. I have no idea how. And it doesn't help that the agent is a snake in the grass.

But again, I'll happily give kudos to a company called Health Care Advocates, hired in tandem with my crap carriers and agent. They have saved me so much time and aggravation with appeal after appeal after appeal after appeal.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:55 pm

rittchard wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:46 pm
Employer sponsored health care is great so long as you can count on being employed by sponsor for healthcare. Our "disruptive" economy... Well, what ever happened to pensions... employer medical coverage after retirement... Employer/Employee loyalty...
So true. We have very good insurance now. I've had really bad insurance in the past, and sometimes gone with none at all, based on the whims of employers and vagaries of the job market. Breaking that link would be a boon to both employees and employers. And, as good as our insurance is, it still has deductibles and copays, and we pay over $600/mo for it.

But I'll be eligible for Medicare in 2.5 years, and safely in the I Got Mine camp.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Alefroth » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:58 pm

I wouldn't be sure of anything 2.5 years away in this timeline.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B » Wed Nov 27, 2019 11:14 pm

Yeah, I'm going to start a rumor that in order to actually get Medicare, anyone over the age of 62 will need to spend the equivalent of three months a year on border patrol, protecting us from Mexico. Just think of all those angry silver-haired retirees walking the border fence and keeping an eye out for trouble in exchange for health care...

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:43 am

As I have said before, I own a pitchfork and am not afraid to wave it about menacingly.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:44 am

LordMortis wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:18 pm
But again, I'll happily give kudos to a company called Health Care Advocates, hired in tandem with my crap carriers and agent. They have saved me so much time and aggravation with appeal after appeal after appeal after appeal.
We have ELAP. My colleague on the admin side has had a motorbike and a motorcycle accident that sent him to the ER, admissions, surgeries, etc. He is very familiar with the hoops through which jumping is required.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Grifman » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:50 am

Smoove_B wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:38 am
I'm probably just retreating into cynicism, but my gut feeling is that Warren's popularity is dropping because she's a woman. The fact that old white men continue to surge in popularity tells me we're still not there yet as a society, accepting a woman being in charge. That's not me lamenting PC culture or the ethics in gaming either, I'm just saying at the end of the day no one is agonizing over policy stump speeches while standing behind the voting booth curtain. My gut is that people are (1) voting single issues and/or (2) voting for the person they think embodies what a President of the United States should look like. And apparently it's still overwhelming old white man.
But that doesn't explain how her popularity rose in the first place - and the timing of her drop seems to be running about the same time frame as her health care plan and how to pay for it got more attention. You're going to need to explain how she increased her popularity to begin with, and how it is just recently that people started noticing she is a woman :) I think that will be some tortured logic there :)
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Grifman » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:56 am

rittchard wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:46 pm

As for Warren, I don't think it's being a woman that hurt her, to me it's more that she was campaigning so hard early on being the smartest one in the pack that has a plan for everything (and implying everyone else was lagging her on big bold ideas). And then having perhaps the most important plan of all her plans being called out for not being fully thought out, dodging to answer questions about it, and then having to backtrack on some of the biggest ideas in it. It's the old "wishy washy" "flip flop" thing, as well as the evasiveness, that I think really turns some people off.
'
Yep, it has nothing to do with her being a woman. This is the Democratic Party, remember? Didn't they nominate a woman to run for president last time? I seem to remember someone . . .
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:21 am

I don't think the reason for Warren dropping is because she's a woman, but I think that it's still a factor that's has made seeking the nomination more difficult. Yes, the Democrats nominated a woman last time, but that woman only had to be one of the most experienced candidates in recent history.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:33 am

Grifman wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:50 am
But that doesn't explain how her popularity rose in the first place - and the timing of her drop seems to be running about the same time frame as her health care plan and how to pay for it got more attention. You're going to need to explain how she increased her popularity to begin with, and how it is just recently that people started noticing she is a woman :) I think that will be some tortured logic there :)
She was new and exciting. Then people like Biden and Sanders came barreling in and when given the choice, apparently the general population feels comforted by old white men, not old white women - even when (fundamentally) they're all cut from the same cloth and realistically all have the same chances of doing anything as President. I think subconsciously the 2020 vote is for a return to what the Office represents (symbolically) and who better to do that than the guy that was with there with Obama?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:28 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:33 am
She was new and exciting. Then people like Biden and Sanders came barreling in and when given the choice, apparently the general population feels comforted by old white men, not old white women - even when (fundamentally) they're all cut from the same cloth and realistically all have the same chances of doing anything as President.
I don't think that's a good description of the race so far. Warren was doing poorly in terms of support when she first entered the race, and she only started to significantly rise after Sanders and Biden had entered the race. She also did it gradually over time (which caused me to be somewhat surprised that she's dropped down, as I would think support that's gained over time would be more robust than support that's gained suddenly in response to some event/debate/viral video/whatever).

I agree that a lot of people want someone connected to Obama (either for a return to normalcy or for electability).

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:26 pm

Rolling Stone
After billionaire and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg formally entered the race for the Democratic presidential nomination Sunday, Bloomberg agency Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait circulated a memo to editorial and research staff. In it, Micklethwait told staff it would not “investigate” either his owner and boss, or any of his boss’s Democratic opponents:

We will continue our tradition of not investigating Mike (and his family and foundation) and we will extend the same policy to his rivals in the Democratic primaries. We cannot treat Mike’s democratic competitors differently from him.

If Mike Bloomberg had any respect for the news business he would encourage his editorial staff to kick him in the balls at every opportunity. Either that, or he would sell his media business. Or not run for president.

Characteristically, he picked the one path that is most contemptible and destructive, retaining ownership of one of the world’s biggest news outlets just to defang it for the duration of his (incidentally moronic) presidential run. It’s an awesomely selfish act that shows his contempt for the whole idea of journalism.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by em2nought » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:36 am

History is going to repeat itself. You know that whole "cult" thing is going to be as unfortunate for you as that "deplorable" thing was in 2016 right? :ninja:
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by pr0ner » Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:27 pm

Hodor.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:41 am

Dude you didn't know was running drops out: Aloha, Joe Sestak.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kurth » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:03 am

Just finished the Bob Iger biography (head of Disney). Really a good read. Also learned that Iger was seriously contemplating a 2020 run for president. Before reading the book, I would have been skeptical, but now, not so much.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:13 pm

Kraken wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:41 am
Dude you didn't know was running drops out: Aloha, Joe Sestak.
I'm sure the Marshalls will be thrilled.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:20 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:26 pm
Rolling Stone
After billionaire and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg formally entered the race for the Democratic presidential nomination Sunday, Bloomberg agency Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait circulated a memo to editorial and research staff. In it, Micklethwait told staff it would not “investigate” either his owner and boss, or any of his boss’s Democratic opponents:
CNBC
President Donald Trump is revoking press credentials for Bloomberg News employees in response to its decision to refrain from investigating Mike Bloomberg or his Democratic rivals during the presidential primaries, a campaign spokesman said Monday.
...
This is not the first time that the Trump campaign has revoked a media outlet’s credentials. During Trump’s 2016 presidential run, his campaign revoked the press credentials of reporters from The Washington Post, Politico, Buzzfeed and The Huffington Post. Yet in these instances, the outlets were not owned by Trump’s political opponent.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:09 pm

Kamala Harris has just dropped out of the race.

There's been a lot of reporting recently on chaos inside her campaign organization. It's too bad. I've always liked her and thought she would do better.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Smoove_B » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:15 pm

I liked her as well, but she might be better off right now in the Senate. Plus, there may be a role for her in the next administration, assuming we can right the ship.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:35 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:15 pm
I liked her as well, but she might be better off right now in the Senate. Plus, there may be a role for her in the next administration, assuming we can right the ship.
She was one of the more interesting candidates to be sure. Did well at the debates, but I never got the impression she was building any momentum. I hoped she'd stick around until things started to matter, though.

Since her strengths are his weaknesses, she'd probably be a good VP to pair with Biden.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:58 pm

Biden/Harris or Buttigieg/Harris would be very strong tickets.

Warren/Harris is like a dream team, but America sucks too much to let that happen.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Fireball » Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:48 pm

It's sad that Harris is departing while candidates like Williamson, Yang, Gabbard, Steyer and Bloomberg remain.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Drazzil » Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:59 pm

I've got the strange feeling Biden may win the nod then lose the election.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:00 pm

Fireball wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:48 pm
It's sad that Harris is departing while candidates like Williamson, Yang, Gabbard, Steyer and Bloomberg remain.
+1

But maybe it makes sense that she leaves the race before it costs her any real status. She remains positioned to be an effective and powerful senator. (Compare the sad jokes that Rubio and Cruz made of themselves.)
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V » Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:37 pm

Holman wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:00 pm
Fireball wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:48 pm
It's sad that Harris is departing while candidates like Williamson, Yang, Gabbard, Steyer and Bloomberg remain.
+1

But maybe it makes sense that she leaves the race before it costs her any real status. She remains positioned to be an effective and powerful senator. (Compare the sad jokes that Rubio and Cruz made of themselves.)
It comes down to funding. Remember, Bill Clinton was polling at about 3% prior to the primaries.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:38 pm



Goddam. Serious +1.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken » Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:31 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:37 pm
Holman wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:00 pm
Fireball wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:48 pm
It's sad that Harris is departing while candidates like Williamson, Yang, Gabbard, Steyer and Bloomberg remain.
+1

But maybe it makes sense that she leaves the race before it costs her any real status. She remains positioned to be an effective and powerful senator. (Compare the sad jokes that Rubio and Cruz made of themselves.)
It comes down to funding. Remember, Bill Clinton was polling at about 3% prior to the primaries.
If the chatter that I've read over the past couple of weeks is accurate, her problem was more with talented campaign managers than fundraising. She was rumored to be a tyrannical boss who made bad decisions that drove good people away. IDK how much of that was gossip and snark or how much was true (maybe Fireball would know), but it's the impression I got.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:32 am

She definitely made a few odd decisions, like waffling between supporting banning private insurance and not banning it (twice!), and deciding to go all in on Iowa, a state that probably doesn't play to her strengths, after not really focusing on it.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:49 pm

Clinton still 'disappointed' Sanders held off on endorsing her in 2016
Asked in a wide-ranging interview Wednesday on SiriusXM's "Howard Stern Show" if she hated or was "upset" with Sanders, Clinton replied, "No, disappointed. And I hope he doesn't do it again to whoever gets the nomination."
Image

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Remus West » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:48 am

Defiant wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:49 pm
Clinton still 'disappointed' Sanders held off on endorsing her in 2016
Asked in a wide-ranging interview Wednesday on SiriusXM's "Howard Stern Show" if she hated or was "upset" with Sanders, Clinton replied, "No, disappointed. And I hope he doesn't do it again to whoever gets the nomination."
Image
Hell, I'll admit that a good portion of the reason I dislike Bernie so much is I feel like he could have thrown his support to her much more quickly and strongly and in doing so helped the world avoid our current disaster in office.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kurth » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:57 am

Agreed, 100%.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:30 am

Remus West wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:48 am
Hell, I'll admit that a good portion of the reason I dislike Bernie so much is I feel like he could have thrown his support to her much more quickly and strongly and in doing so helped the world avoid our current disaster in office.
I dunno. Maybe it's because I was a Bernie supporter. Sitting here typing, I agree that he didn't know when to bow out and that this a stain on his wanting to do what's best for the nation. But for me, my distrust came as he flaked out as he was withdrawing where he didn't seem to have verfiable facts to back his passionate progressiveness. Suddenly it was if he had to make it up as he went along to feed his ego. He became more and more of a crazy aunt/uncle you want get away from at a family event. Even then, I didn't come to really dislike him until he threw his hat in again. Warren is clearly the better progressive than Bernie. She is an actual democrat to boot. But Bernie came out for the Bernie brand, not for nation. So he's a distraction at a time where we clearly shouldn't have him as a distraction. That is the lion's share of how I came to dislike Bernie so much. Similar reason. Different timeline. Maybe you just saw things so much clearer than I did four years ago and it takes hindsight to see it happening now.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Remus West » Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:48 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:30 am
Remus West wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:48 am
Hell, I'll admit that a good portion of the reason I dislike Bernie so much is I feel like he could have thrown his support to her much more quickly and strongly and in doing so helped the world avoid our current disaster in office.
I dunno. Maybe it's because I was a Bernie supporter. Sitting here typing, I agree that he didn't know when to bow out and that this a stain on his wanting to do what's best for the nation. But for me, my distrust came as he flaked out as he was withdrawing where he didn't seem to have verfiable facts to back his passionate progressiveness. Suddenly it was if he had to make it up as he went along to feed his ego. He became more and more of a crazy aunt/uncle you want get away from at a family event. Even then, I didn't come to really dislike him until he threw his hat in again. Warren is clearly the better progressive than Bernie. She is an actual democrat to boot. But Bernie came out for the Bernie brand, not for nation. So he's a distraction at a time where we clearly shouldn't have him as a distraction. That is the lion's share of how I came to dislike Bernie so much. Similar reason. Different timeline. Maybe you just saw things so much clearer than I did four years ago and it takes hindsight to see it happening now.
At the time I was annoyed that he did not whole heartedly endorse HRC after not gaining the nomination himself but I did not think it would make a difference. I just looked at it as petty from someone who isn't even a party member being mad the party didn't nominate him. It wasn't until after the election I really started to dislike him for it. Same reason I dislike Nader. He kept Gore from winning in 2000.

All of these third party candidates running as "spoilers" to make a point end up hurting the causes they actually care about and in doing so hurt all of us. Imagine a world in which we do not launch into war in Iraq. One in which our POTUS started addressing climate change nearly 20 years ago. It is possible we end up the same place due to similar forces but it is nice to imagine we do not.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:17 pm

I think Bernie did a lot of damage in 2016. Some of his delegates actually believed *even at the convention* that he could still get the nomination. Remember when Sarah Silverman (herself a prominent Bernie fan) was at the podium imploring the Bernie-or-Bust folks to get on board with HRC?

You *know* a significant number of Bernie voters stayed home or went third-party under those conditions. And they probably thought that it would make no difference because Clinton was sure to win. Put that together with James Comey, and you get Trump.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

malchior
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by malchior » Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:39 pm

Don't leave out Jill Stein. Though you could argue many broke from Bernie and went to her and if he had thrown his support earlier to HRC it would have changed the result. The margin in PA was within Jill Stein's count IIRC. There were a lot of spoiling factors that gave us Trump. It was a low probability event though in reality the GOP was on a ruinous path Trump or not.

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Kurth
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kurth » Fri Dec 06, 2019 1:50 am

Biden to voter: "You're a damn liar, man."

Is Biden finally waking up? That's the old Uncle Joe I remember.
(CNN)Joe Biden's feisty exchange with a retired Iowa farmer on Thursday perfectly captured the perils and the potential of his candidacy.

In a human moment defending his son, Biden showed the authenticity, emotion and readiness for a fight that appeals to so many Democrats as they look for someone who can take on Trump.
At the same time, the elder statesman who is supposed to be the antidote to President Donald Trump was undisciplined and undeniably macho -- reminding voters he's an at times undisciplined contender who almost seemed ready for fisticuffs with a hostile questioner.
Thursday afternoon's exchange could benefit Biden at a time when Democrats say toughness is one of their most coveted assets in their battle against Trump.
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