2021 Election Cycle

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malchior
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2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

Figured I'd start up a thread since we'll be having a couple of so-called bellwether elections. The main two to track are NJ and VA.

First up the more immediately important one - VA.

That pits former Governor Terry McAullife against Glenn Youngkin. The race is tight and they are virtually tied according to the polls. Youngkin has banished Trump but he is still channeling Trump on the campaign. He is race-baiting and repeating debunked lies about his opponent over and over. He has embraced conspiracy theories. And he may very well pull it out.

VA is also heavily influencing the Democratic reconciliation shit show with McAullife basically asking the democrats to throw him a lifeline with independents by getting *anything* done. If there was a good time to announce a deal/win, it'd probably be this week. That is behind the fever pitch we are hearing on last minute deal-making on reconciliation.

Next up - NJ.

The NJ race pits incumbent NJ governor Phil Murphy against a no name - ahem - Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli back in June had name recognition below 30% in NJ. It was probably in the teens early in the year. No one knows him. That has probably turned out to be an advantage since he had a chance to brand himself and try to shake off the Trump stamp. He did the latter by defeating a Trumpist in the primary. Murphy had a double digit lead at that point in the race. Ciattarelli has been since running an almost quaint standard moderate Republican race with bursts of Trump-y bluster.

Since then it has tightened up somewhat to Murphy +6. I still believe he'll almost certainly win. Voting in NJ has been streamlined during COVID. The Democratic machine here appears to be firing on all cylinders and is fighting hard to turn out the vote. A Murphy win would be notable as NJ has not re-elected a Democratic governor since 1977. He brought Biden in to campaign for him last week and they announced some very much needed infrastructure projects that were funded a few years ago including fixes to rail link crucial to the regional and national economies.

Meta note: Somehow we are seeing for the moment that the GOP is still competitive even in so-called purple states. We'll see if this is true next week but if you had any hope that American democracy wasn't on the rails then you aren't paying attention. That people have realigned their expectations of the GOP implies a lot of bad things about the electorate.

As to the NJ race, I voted weeks ago by mail. I'm not a fan of Murphy but it was a no-brainer. If I had my way we'd never elect a Republican in NJ for any public position again. My local races don't even have a Republican on the ticket. That's a different big problem that requires an eventual solution but our democracy needs to survive the next few years before worrying about that.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, I voted weeks ago by mail as well in Jerz, for all (D) candidates. In my area for the local elections its a protest vote, but it needs to be done.

I've noticed since Monday the anti-Murphy rhetoric has whipped up significantly on social media. They're really pushing the mask/vaccination issue and letting everyone know if he's re-elected mandates are coming. Spoiler - they're right.
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malchior
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:38 amI've noticed since Monday the anti-Murphy rhetoric has whipped up significantly on social media. They're really pushing the mask/vaccination issue and letting everyone know if he's re-elected mandates are coming. Spoiler - they're right.
I am noticing the same here - local Facebook is a cesspool of that nonsense again. I'm only really aware because I get email notifications about the local town group. That reminds me I need to turn those off. The good thing I'm seeing is that the local crazies are not fired up. That's pleasant compared to last year when I saw repeated property damage (mostly to Biden signs).
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

The Big Lie has already made an appearance in the VA state race!

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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by gilraen »

malchior wrote: Wed Oct 27, 2021 9:59 pm The Big Lie has already made an appearance in the VA state race!

Is she getting those reports through the microchip in her COVID vaccine?
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

malchior
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

This seems...hokey to me.

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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by pr0ner »

Maybe the Lincoln Project needs to go away for a while.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by El Guapo »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Oct 29, 2021 7:12 pm Maybe the Lincoln Project needs to go away for a while.
Care to add some context?
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malchior
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

LP sent some people to pretend to be white supremacists dressed as folks from Charlottesville complete with Tikis. They lined up in front of Youngkin's bus.

I posted a tweet of it but it was deleted after being up all day. I suspected it was hokey but posted it anyway waiting for the story to come out.

Edit: With more context/fallout - this well-known piece of fascist shit links it to the "Democrat" party. Thanks to LP who are definitely not part of the Democratic party. :roll:

Last edited by malchior on Sat Oct 30, 2021 9:08 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by YellowKing »

I have a buddy who's big into The Lincoln Project. He's furiously anti-Trump, and generally progressive in most areas. However, he's of the old-school mentality that he's always voted Republican and even though the party has left him behind and his views more closely align with the left, he "can't vote for a liberal."

It's frustrating because he envisions this return to "normal conservative politics" without realizing that they're the same politics we're seeing today. The only difference is the GOP today flaunts their corruption and racism instead of keeping it behind closed doors.
malchior
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

Plopping this here. Call me skeptical but I feel the idea that ISIS called up a local PD to threaten a terrorist attack right before an election seems a little hokey. Got to hand it to everyone trying to break democracy - they are all really trying hard. :tjg:



malchior
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by pr0ner »

I got to do my first exit poll in over 20 years of voting today after my vote in Virginia's gubernatorial election today, so that was fun.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

Not looking good in Virginia so far. We really do want to just run this place into the gutter. We lose Jersey too and I'll just about give up. :cry:
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Virginia is definitely looking like a squeeker.

Which does not bode particularly well for Democrats next November, but then, that's an eternity away in political terms.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Ouch. Latest Loudoun County reports are brutal for McAuliffe. Things just got a lot harder for the Democrats.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

Sigh...How much longer for Trump to run victory laps in the news? We're so fucked.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Octavious wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:06 pmSigh...How much longer for Trump to run victory laps in the news? We're so fucked.
Well, the good news is that Youngkin has not been playing up his Trump credentials the way some Republican candidates have. His whole schtick has been schools and what's being taught in them.

Not that that will stop Trump from taking a victory lap. But then, Trump was going to do that no matter what happened. If Youngkin loses, Trump will take a victory lap talking about how Youngkin lost because he didn't invite Trump to campaign for him.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Rural counties are giving Youngkin huge margins. That's not entirely unexpected, but the turnout is. And the suburbs are not breaking blue the way they usually do.

This isn't over by any means, but I think it's fair to say that Youngkin is taking the lead.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Uuuuggghhh. So far, McAuliffe is down vis-a-vie projections pretty much everywhere. Historically, record turnout has been good for Democrats. But in this case, it seems like all the new people who showed up to vote are leaning towards Youngkin.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by pr0ner »

I'm not at all surprised. It's not like McAuliffe was a great candidate, and he barely won the first time around in 2013.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

I'm seeing people already calling that race. Fingers crossed NJ doesn't put up some weird horror show. Screaming nonsense over and over apparently is the best way to win. CRT!!!!!!!! Mexicans!!!!! Trans eating your children!!! :grund: :tjg:
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

Well, I'm just a rando on the internet, so don't take my word on anything, but I don't see any way that McAuliffe pulls this out. Every single metric is breaking Youngkin's way. Holy crap.

Democrats had better come up with an answer to CRT. (the Republican boogieman, that is. Actual Critical Race Theory is fine.) Whatever they did in Virginia clearly didn't take. :shock:
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

I don't even think it will be super close when it's done. Failing to respond to all the nonsense is costing us greatly.

Last edited by Octavious on Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

It won't just be CRT. It'll be low turnout as well I'll bet. There are consequences to failure and perceived incompetence at the highest levels.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

Ya that's what worries me about Jersey. The Republicans were chomping at the bit to go out and vote. They will have record numbers I bet.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

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Again - rando on the internet, but so far NJ looks like it's in the bank for Murphy. And let's face it...New Jersey is one of the top ten most-democratic leaning states in the nation. Murphy had better win. :lol:

(yes, I know that NJ likes to occasionally elect R governors. But that was before Trump.)
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

It would be the first time in 40 years that a Dem won a 2nd term. Which hurts my head, but I've read that like 100 times today. So I mean we're not fucked everywhere. I really think that story about the kid assaulting another kid in the bathroom was the death blow in Virginia. Looks like they will have a clean sweep in VA.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

The Times calls the NY Mayor's race for Eric Adams.

No real surprise there.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

So nobody on the news is talking about the NJ race. Kind of annoying as I would love to know if I should be worried that Joe is ahead right now. Considering the bloodbath in VA I'm not as confident as other people seem to be.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Smoove_B »

:shock:

No takes from me tonight about why we lost a Biden +10 state a year after the election - I want to wait for more data and be open to explanations that may not confirm my priors.

But, wow. Not great!

We got some real work to do before ‘22 (understatement).
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Little Raven »

So far, NJ still looks safeish...but no promises.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Smoove_B »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:06 pm So far, NJ still looks safeish...but no promises.
The votes coming in are from places like Ocean and Monmouth counties - GOP strongholds. Very few votes from Union, Essex and Passaic counties have allegedly been officially reported - large population centers where Murphy should clean up. I have a feeling it's going to be closer than it should be but Murphy should win. I cannot process in any capacity what would happen if he doesn't.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

Seems the republican strongholds are reporting their numbers quicker so making it look closer than it is. I hope? :P
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:09 pm
Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:06 pm So far, NJ still looks safeish...but no promises.
The votes coming in are from places like Ocean and Monmouth counties - GOP strongholds. Very few votes from Union, Essex and Passaic counties have allegedly been officially reported - large population centers where Murphy should clean up. I have a feeling it's going to be closer than it should be but Murphy should win. I cannot process in any capacity what would happen if he doesn't.
I wonder how Sussex will vote? :P
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Kraken »

The Democrats need two major victories to turn things around: pass the infrastructure and social bills, and pass voting protection (filibuster reform). They need the former to rally the troops and show voters some tangible rewards, and they need the latter so their voters can vote. (They also need to solve the debt ceiling debacle with minimal fuss, but that should be routine politics.) They are doomed without both of those things. They're probably doomed anyway, but they could at least put some points on the board.

That said, the VA results are not necessarily the bellwether they're being spun as. This Dem pit can still be climbed, and trump might declare his candidacy after the VA rout. Nothing would be better for the Dems than trump moving back into the spotlight before the midterms.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by malchior »

Remember that the GOP president tried to commit a coup and the party rallied to bury it *this year*. And they are competitive. Stick a fork in us. We are done.
Kraken wrote: That said, the VA results are not necessarily the bellwether they're being spun as. This Dem pit can still be climbed, and trump might declare his candidacy after the VA rout. Nothing would be better for the Dems than trump moving back into the spotlight before the midterms.
I get the wishes for hope but this absolutely is a bellwether for a major wipeout next year. In context the voters are essentially signaling we are irrational.
Last edited by malchior on Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2021 Election Cycle

Post by Octavious »

They aren't just competitive. They f'n swept Virginia and we still have NJ to count... Ya I would say we're 99.99% fucked.
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