Zogby Wireless Survey

[Crabbs]

Well here is the first possible evidence of the Cell phone bias of conventional polling.

Zogby Wireless Survey"

Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points.

At least we have some real #'s now.

[malchior]

I think it would be sweet if the cell phone bias is real and ends up that the young for once decided an election.

I'm at a College all day and I get the sense from being there that we are going to have a huge youth turnout from our population.

[RunningMn9]

The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc.

That ruins the sample set right there. This poll doesn't tell you that Kerry leads Bush 55 to 40 among 18-29 year-old likely voters.

It tells you that Kerry leads Bush 55 to 40 among likely voters in the subset of the 18-29 year old demographic who signed up for Rock the Vote Mobile platform.

That's like issuing poll results that Bush is leading Kerry among likely voters from the ranks of the College Republicans.

And you neglected to mention one interesting find:

“The results of this text-message poll mirror what we’re seeing in our more conventional polls,” said John Zogby, CEO and president of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. “Among 18-29 year-olds, Kerry leads the President by 14 points—55% to 41% in our current daily tracking poll—virtually identical to these results. Our text-message poll seems to have been validated by this experiment. All in all, I think we’ve broken some new ground in polling.”

All in all, it tells me that you didn't need to break any new ground. If the wireless results are IDENTICAL to the non-wireless results....doesn't that suggest that the "cell phone bias of conventional polling" is non-existant?

Or am I not understanding what "virtually identical to these results" means?

[Crabbs]

Well since the Text Message sample is "virtually" identical to the standard poll sample then that negates your statement that this is poll invalid since it is just a sub-set (RTV bias) of 18-29 year olds.

I am possibly reading too much into it, but I take this to say: Since there are many voters in the 18-29 age group non-reachable by land lines, this cell sample provides evidence that this population will break for Kerry. I guess the only thing I would say I couldn't extend to the remaining cell population is their likely-hood to vote, since RTV has pre-screened for likelyhood to vote already.[/i]

[Charlatan]

Ya the big question here is how likely that demographic is to actually go and vote. And people posting here are probably not in the middle of that demographic. I think this is one of those issues that is only gonna be cleared up through the actual election process.

[malchior]

Nice catch RM9. That's interesting.

[YellowKing]

The youth will break Democrat? Jesus Christ you've got to be kidding me?!! Call the papers, this is front page news!!!

[Dramatist]

Here's what voting wsa like for me in college. I was back when you actually had to make a point to register. I did and was excited to vote (my civic duty and all).

I need an absentee ballot and try to get my mom to get me one. She doesn't, and on voting day I'm 200 miles from where I registered and I don't have a car.

So, no vote for me.

[RunningMn9]

Yeah, I wrote the second half of my original post after I wrote the first half, and neglected to edit.

[Dirt]

I hope it's true. It's damn time the younger generation did something right again.

[dangerballs]

Here's what voting wsa like for me in college. I was back when you actually had to make a point to register. I did and was excited to vote (my civic duty and all).

I need an absentee ballot and try to get my mom to get me one. She doesn't, and on voting day I'm 200 miles from where I registered and I don't have a car.

So, no vote for me.

You could just call up your county clerk and request one to be sent to your address. Takes 3-4 minutes tops.

[Defiant]

.

[RunningMn9]

For example, in Pew Research poll, Bush leads Kerry 51-45 in the "Under 30" group. Also, take into account that this age group might be underrespresnted if the poll isn't weighted appropriately (as has been the case in at least a few polls this season).

Polls differ. I think it's a bit of a stretch to presume that the Pew Research poll has different numbers because of a cell phone bias. Polls disagreed with each other long before there was this cell phone bias to complain about.

[Defiant]

.

[LawBeefaroni]

Here's what voting wsa like for me in college. I was back when you actually had to make a point to register. I did and was excited to vote (my civic duty and all).

I need an absentee ballot and try to get my mom to get me one. She doesn't, and on voting day I'm 200 miles from where I registered and I don't have a car.

So, no vote for me.

Yeah, that's the thing with the college vote. The majority have to absentee or go home to vote. Most don't.

[Napoleon]

Here's what voting wsa like for me in college. I was back when you actually had to make a point to register. I did and was excited to vote (my civic duty and all).

I need an absentee ballot and try to get my mom to get me one. She doesn't, and on voting day I'm 200 miles from where I registered and I don't have a car.

So, no vote for me.

Yeah, that's the thing with the college vote. The majority have to absentee or go home to vote. Most don't.

Which is why I like the dutch system. If you move, for example to live on campus, you have to register with the city that you live there. You then are automatically assigned to vote somewhere near your new residence.

[Edit: oh, forgot...you have to register with the city for tax reasons and because of the student grant every dutch student gets. So, it's an obligatory registration, unlike the american one, which seems voluntary, right?]

[LawBeefaroni]

Here's what voting wsa like for me in college. I was back when you actually had to make a point to register. I did and was excited to vote (my civic duty and all).

I need an absentee ballot and try to get my mom to get me one. She doesn't, and on voting day I'm 200 miles from where I registered and I don't have a car.

So, no vote for me.

Yeah, that's the thing with the college vote. The majority have to absentee or go home to vote. Most don't.

Which is why I like the dutch system. If you move, for example to live on campus, you have to register with the city that you live there. You then are automatically assigned to vote somewhere near your new residence.

[Edit: oh, forgot...you have to register with the city for tax reasons and because of the student grant every dutch student gets. So, it's an obligatory registration, unlike the american one, which seems voluntary, right?]

It's voluntary and I think you have to establish residency (get local driver's license, etc) which most students don't or can't do.