Scottish Independence?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:31 pm

Polls close in 90 minutes. Full results are expected tomorrow about 1 pm EDT.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:33 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Polls close in 90 minutes. Full results are expected tomorrow about 1 pm EDT.

Are there going to be preliminary results before then?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:35 pm

I screwed up the math.

Results should be coming in by midnight.

I don't know about exit polls or predictions, but there will be reporting spread out:

First results are due in between 1.30am and 2am. The remote Orkney Islands which has the smallest electorate with 17,515 registered voters, are expected to be the first to declare. Most of the results should come through between 3am and 5am.

Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen - home to about 25% of registered voters - will be the last three councils to announce results between 5am and 6am. These three population centres are among the 12 pivotal areas.

Take off 5 hours for the East coast, etc.

Roman · Post by **Roman** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 3:42 pm

Toronto Star (Canadian) has an article saying that the YES side is expected to win: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/ ... rnout.html

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:18 pm

Roman wrote:Toronto Star (Canadian) has an article saying that the YES side is expected to win: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/ ... rnout.html

There's an enormous caveat in that article, though:

The bold prediction flies in the face of most poll predictions that are still giving a narrow edge to the No forces as Scotland began voting early Thursday on whether to go it alone or stay with the United Kingdom.

So an equally accurate headline would say "Most Poll Predictions Anticipate a No Vote".

Fireball · Post by **Fireball** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:30 pm

In the 1860s, the US new how to handle secessionists. Cameron, it seems, is no Lincoln.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:31 pm

Tell me again how Lincoln stopped the secessionists before they got started.

Fireball · Post by **Fireball** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:45 pm

Well, as they left before he was President, he couldn't do that. But he dragged the traitorous filth back into the nation.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:48 pm

So to be more like Lincoln, Cameron needs to let them secede, then force them back at gunpoint, no?

I don't think your metaphor is holding up too well.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:50 pm

The US would be so much better off if we had let the south go.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:51 pm

Yeah, it's been a terrible run for the US since 1865. Worst. Nation. EVAR.

Thanks, South! Without your filth, filthing up the place, we probably would have made something of ourselves as a country!

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:53 pm

Indeed a war that would kill 2.5% of their population seems like an awesome plan.

I mean that is barely what, 2 million people?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 4:59 pm

Polls are closed!

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:58 pm

The first politician who jumps from "Scotland voted Yes" to "The South was right!!1!" is Shithead of the Year.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:00 pm

The Guardian has a fast-moving liveblog here.

Latest news (right now) is that final polling and pundits are predicting a "No."

Election results haven't begun to appear, however.

Pyperkub · Post by **Pyperkub** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 8:02 pm

Holman wrote:The first politician who jumps from "Scotland voted Yes" to "The South was right!!1!" is Shithead of the Year.

Of course. Scotland is obviously in the North

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:25 pm

Lots of planets have a North.

There are 32 districts to report.

After 2:

Clackmannanshire was the earliest to declare, with "No" winning 19,036 votes and "Yes" on 16,350 on an 89% turnout.
...
Orkney was the second area to announce its result, with "No" winning 10,004 votes compared with 4,883 for "Yes" on a turnout of 83.7%.
...
Commenting on the Clackmannshire result, Conservative MSP Gavin Brown said: "The bookies odds said that Dundee was favourite to get the highest percentage for 'Yes', and I think Clackmannanshire were second favourite to get the highest so I certainly thought Clackmannanshire would have a majority for 'Yes'.
...
But SNP MSP John Mason, who represents Glasgow Shettleston, said that Clackmannanshire is "one of the smallest councils in Scotland so I think it's quite hard to read very much into that".
...
A YouGov on-the-day survey published shortly after polls closed suggested "No" was on 54% and "Yes" on 46%.

The survey questioned 1,828 people after they voted, together with the postal votes of 800 people, although it is not a traditional exit poll.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:26 pm

If Scotland leaves, does the UK have to re-do the flag with the removal of the saltire? Would they go back to the straight English flag, or would they have to work a Welsh dragon in there somehow? Maybe the Welsh green.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 9:44 pm

Early exit analyses from both camps are suggesting a stronger-than-expected No vote.

Turnout in populous pro-Independence Glasgow was only ("only") 75%. Elsewhere it's running 85-90%.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:17 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:After 2:

They're keeping the article updated.

In the Western Isles, the result was 10,544 to 9,195 in favour of Scotland staying in the UK.
...
n Shetland voters rejected independence by 9,951 votes to 5,669.

xwraith · Post by **xwraith** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:17 pm

Watching the BBC. Sounds like even if independence does not win (which seems to be the likely outcome at the moment), there is going to be a constitutional crisis as Scottish devolution unbalances the system as it exists today. Seems as if England will have its own parliament as well with, presumably, the same powers granted to Scotland's.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:23 pm

Rumblings from the Welsh:

A former Welsh secretary says the current devolution settlement is unfair and should change.

With just few days left of campaigning in the Scottish independence vote, Conservative MP John Redwood says Wales currently has "second rate" powers.

He also said English MPs should meet independently when dealing with matters that affect England alone.

Wales First Minister Carwyn Jones said all political parties should set out plans for more devolution next spring.

Mr Redwood said: "I'm fed up with this lop-sided devolution, this unfair devolution.

"Scotland gets first class devolution, Wales gets second class devolution and England gets nothing."

First Minister Mr Jones, who backs a Scots No vote, said Wales should not be treated separately to Scotland, although it may not end up with the same powers.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 10:29 pm

Too much free cheese for too long.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 18, 2014 11:09 pm

Dundee, the largest area to declare so far, backed independence by 53,620 votes to 39,880.
...
Inverclyde voted "No" to leaving the United Kingdom by only 86 votes, while in Renfrewshire the totals were 62,067 for "No" and 55,466 for "Yes".

That puts the No votes at 178,111 to 172,426 Yes with 7 reporting.

Unfortunately, I can't stay up to see the finals, as I have to get up earlier than normal for a first thing project meeting.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:14 am

Current results (per the NY Times live blog) are 54 - 46 against independence.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:43 am

BBC is calling it - 55 to 45 against independence. The Guardian apparently is doing so as well.

David Cameron is probably the most relieved he's ever been.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:19 am

El Guapo wrote:David Cameron is probably the most relieved he's ever been.

But he still wakes up to a huge headache. He has promised big things and now has to pull off major reforms while everyone is unhappy.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:36 am

Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:David Cameron is probably the most relieved he's ever been.
But he still wakes up to a huge headache. He has promised big things and now has to pull off major reforms while everyone is unhappy.

Beats the alternative by a mile.

In any event, I'd like to congratulate the people of Scotland for not going crazy.

Brian · Post by **Brian** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:33 am

CNN reporting 110% turnout.

AWS260 · Post by **AWS260** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:46 am

My name is Scotcen, Poll of Polls
Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:51 am

Brian wrote:CNN reporting 110% turnout.

Seems legit.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:15 am

El Guapo wrote:
Brian wrote:CNN reporting 110% turnout.

Seems legit.

That was from the Crimean vote.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 10:45 am

El Guapo wrote:BBC is calling it - 55 to 45 against independence. The Guardian apparently is doing so as well.

David Cameron is probably the most relieved he's ever been.

You'd think there'd be more than a hundred voters.

If you listen the the Quebec separatist veterans, England doesn't actually have to follow through on those promises. They can just quietly bury the whole thing by stalling, baby steps, mumbling incoherently and so on.

Eventually England will just go "what promises?". Of course that means Scotland will have another vote down the line, but hopefully after all the currently serving politicians have retired so they don't have to face the mess.

There's some legitimacy to that and understandable bitterness when it happens, which just makes the Yes people are the more determined next time.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 12:28 pm

Damn, my visions of Zombie Longshanks leading an army of British nobility (in their business suits, not armor, of course) in a putative conquest will have to wait a while longer.

Biyobi · Post by **Biyobi** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:31 pm

Jeff V wrote:Damn, my visions of Zombie Longshanks leading an army of British nobility (in their business suits, not armor, of course) in a putative conquest will have to wait a while longer.

Don't write it off yet. One of the sub-clauses slipped into Scotlands new powers re-institutes the right of prima nocta to English nobles.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 1:53 pm

It was rigged!

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 2:24 pm

Bombshell! Irrefutable!

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Sep 19, 2014 4:07 pm

Biyobi wrote:
Jeff V wrote:Damn, my visions of Zombie Longshanks leading an army of British nobility (in their business suits, not armor, of course) in a putative conquest will have to wait a while longer.
Don't write it off yet. One of the sub-clauses slipped into Scotlands new powers re-institutes the right of prima nocta to English nobles.

They can't re-institute something that was never in practice outside of Hollywood.

em2nought · Post by **em2nought** » Sun Sep 21, 2014 7:39 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Biyobi wrote:
Jeff V wrote:Damn, my visions of Zombie Longshanks leading an army of British nobility (in their business suits, not armor, of course) in a putative conquest will have to wait a while longer.
Don't write it off yet. One of the sub-clauses slipped into Scotlands new powers re-institutes the right of prima nocta to English nobles.
They can't re-institute something that was never in practice outside of Hollywood.

Where's Angela Lansbury when you need her http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0rRPU_c ... 0rRPU_cvGg

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 12:44 pm

It's never over.

The Catalan and Scottish independence movements, the two strongest in Europe, are entering a new phase, with lessons to be learnt from each other's experiences so far.

Separatists won a clear majority of seats in Catalonia's parliament in a regional election on Sunday, deepening its confrontation with the Madrid government.

Despite the passions and raised hopes, both the Scots and the Catalans face a tricky road ahead, with stubborn central governments as well as business, banks and European Union officials arrayed against them.

And neither side enjoys overwhelming support from their own population. But they will at the very least remain a thorn in the side of politics in Britain and Spain for some years.
...
But Spain's constitution does not allow a region to break away and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy strongly opposes any attempt to hold a referendum on secession.

The Scots' independence drive, led by the Scottish National Party, (SNP) lost a referendum in September a year ago.

But the SNP then won a sweeping victory in a British election in May, taking all but three of Scotland's 59 seats in parliament, and says a second referendum must be held at some point in the future.

Many Catalans saw Scotland's referendum as exemplary because Prime Minister David Cameron respected the Scots' right to have their say. Rajoy's strategy has largely been dismissive of Catalan nationalist arguments, describing them as "nonsense".
...
As far as Scotland goes, the timing of another referendum is crucial as the SNP needs to make sure it wins this time, otherwise the issue will be dead and buried for a generation.

Its position should be spelled out in its manifesto for Scottish local elections in May.