The Global Warming Thread

[malchior]

Washington Post article for some context but generally looks like it mates up well with that ice data.

[hepcat]

This is Chinese propaganda!

[malchior]

No more 'politicized' earth science for NASA. Hopefully with their re-emphasis on deep space exploration they can find a planet for us to evacuate to.

[Kraken]

No more 'politicized' earth science for NASA. Hopefully with their re-emphasis on deep space exploration they can find a planet for us to evacuate to.

“We see Nasa in an exploration role, in deep space research,” Walker told the Guardian. “Earth-centric science is better placed at other agencies where it is their prime mission.

“My guess is that it would be difficult to stop all ongoing Nasa programs but future programs should definitely be placed with other agencies.

I wish I could believe that the research is merely being shifted to more appropriate agencies, like NOAA, that are already capable of picking up the slack. In principle I can agree that NASA should focus outward.

[Unagi]

Space gives us a perspective, both literally and figuratively, that we can't get of earth from the surface.

[Kraken]

Space gives us a perspective, both literally and figuratively, that we can't get of earth from the surface.

I'm all for NASA studying planets, and earth is one of those, so that's appropriate and good. But NOAA also operates remote sensing satellites and could take over NASA's earth-monitoring functions. Hypothetically, that is. Republicans obviously aren't going to expand NOAA's role.

[malchior]

I can agree with aligning resources with the correct agency and having NASA maintain the satellites, etc. My true answer would need a lot more information - like high level how would that service model look like as a starter. How responsive would it be? Is it cost effective? Do you possibly have to throw a ton of new resources at it to make that work? Aligning resources sounds great until you need to teach entire organizations how to suddenly become a service provider to another organization. It isn't always a natural fit. They have different cultures, systems, etc. Anyway logistics aside - the way I see it - it doesn't matter because that positing followed statements about ending politicized climate science. They aren't interested in efficiency. In fact, I'm sure they'll find that moving the mission wouldn't be efficient...after they kill it since that is the real purpose. I've seen this play before.

[RunningMn9]

I would be totally cool with refocusing agency efforts more appropriately if this wasn't such a transparent effort to end certain types of "politicized" research (extra points for having the balls to say that when you are the ones that politicized it).

[gbasden]

The world is fucking crazy when studying the planet we live on is a political football.

[Enough]

Well, this doesn't look good at all. Basically the acceleration of climate change due to environmental response is starting look frighteningly real.

For decades scientists have speculated that rising global temperatures might alter the ability of soils to store carbon, potentially releasing huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and triggering runaway climate change. Yet thousands of studies worldwide have produced mixed signals on whether this storage capacity will actually decrease — or even increase — as the planet warms.

It turns out scientists might have been looking in the wrong places.

A new Yale-led study in the journal Nature finds that warming will drive the loss of at least 55 trillion kilograms of carbon from the soil by mid-century, or about 17% more than the projected emissions due to human-related activities during that period. That would be roughly the equivalent of adding to the planet another industrialized country the size of the United States.

Critically, the researchers found that carbon losses will be greatest in the world’s colder places, at high latitudes, locations that had largely been missing from previous research. In those regions, massive stocks of carbon have built up over thousands of years and slow microbial activity has kept them relatively secure.

[Holman]

The world is fucking crazy when studying the planet we live on is a political football.

"E pur si muove."

[gbasden]

The world is fucking crazy when studying the planet we live on is a political football.

"E pur si muove."

Yes, indeed.

[Isgrimnur]

Business Insider

That's 753,000 square miles — or the amount of ice cover the Arctic Sea missed this November as compared to the 1981 to 2010 average for the month, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

November is the seventh month in 2016 to hit a record low Arctic sea ice extent, a result of warm water, unfavorable winds, and an atmosphere that's as much as 36 degrees warmer than usual.

This is the time of year when the Arctic cools and freezes, so the total ice extent is higher than in October. But, unusually, the trend hasn't gone in one direction.

For "a brief period in the middle of the month," according to the NSIDC press release on the dip, the Arctic actually saw a decrease in its total ice extent of about 19,300 square miles, or an area about the size of New Hampshire and Vermont put together.
...
The Antarctic, where the ice is older, thicker, and mostly sits on land rather than sea, hasn't seen the same long-term linear collapse in ice extents that the Arctic has. But this November also saw record-breaking ice extent lows on the southernmost continent.

Antarctic ice extents were 699,000 square miles before the 1981-2010 average for November — an area similar to the one described above, if you lop off Louisiana, and more than double the previous record set in 1986.

[LordMortis]

https://weather.com/news/news/breitbart ... D_120616_2

I admit it, I'm a sucker for the title here.

Title from Weather.com

Note to Breitbart: Earth Is Not Cooling, Climate Change Is Real and Please Stop Using Our Video to Mislead Americans

Wherein, weather.com must be held accountable for trying to politicize the weather?

[Defiant]

Come with me if you want to live

[LordMortis]

Some people spend unfathomable amounts of money on retaining their power and money.

Some people spend unfathomable amounts of money on trying to make the world a better place. I wonder who history will remember more kindly and when you have 10 digits + in assets and wealth, what are you really doing with it all other than building your legacy?

http://secondnexus.com/ecology-and-sust ... 044efee13a

Good luck and honest integrity to them. We might very well all be counting on them.

Note: I have no idea how good of a source second nexus is.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/second-nexus/

[Holman]

Scientists are frantically copying U.S. climate data, fearing it might vanish under Trump.

Alarmed that decades of crucial climate measurements could vanish under a hostile Trump administration, scientists have begun a feverish attempt to copy reams of government data onto independent servers in hopes of safeguarding it from any political interference.

The efforts include a “guerrilla archiving” event in Toronto, where experts will copy irreplaceable public data, meetings at the University of Pennsylvania focused on how to download as much federal data as possible in the coming weeks, and a collaboration of scientists and database experts who are compiling an online site to harbor scientific information.

“Something that seemed a little paranoid to me before all of a sudden seems potentially realistic, or at least something you’d want to hedge against,” said Nick Santos, an environmental researcher at the University of California at Davis, who over the weekend began copying government climate data onto a nongovernment server, where it will remain available to the public. “Doing this can only be a good thing. Hopefully they leave everything in place. But if not, we’re planning for that.”

[Combustible Lemur]

Bah, scooped by 7 minutes

[Combustible Lemur]

Some people spend unfathomable amounts of money on retaining their power and money.

Some people spend unfathomable amounts of money on trying to make the world a better place. I wonder who history will remember more kindly and when you have 10 digits + in assets and wealth, what are you really doing with it all other than building your legacy?

http://secondnexus.com/ecology-and-sust ... 044efee13a

Good luck and honest integrity to them. We might very well all be counting on them.

Note: I have no idea how good of a source second nexus is.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/second-nexus/

FWIW it was repeated on BBC World Report via NPR this morning

[Rip]

President-elect Donald Trump has an opportunity to establish "American leadership through innovation," Bill Gates told CNBC on Tuesday.

"A lot of his message has been about ... where he sees things not as good as he'd like," the billionaire Microsoft co-founder said on "Squawk Box."

"But in the same way President Kennedy talked about the space mission and got the country behind that," Gates continued, "I think whether it's education or stopping epidemics ... [or] in this energy space, there can be a very upbeat message that [Trump's] administration [is] going to organize things, get rid of regulatory barriers, and have American leadership through innovation."

Gates said he recently spoke on the phone with Trump, and discussed the power of innovation. "Of course, my whole career has been along those lines. And he was interested in listening to that. And I'm sure there will be further conversation."

Gates said it was the first time he had spoken with Trump, though he said they have mutual friends.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/after-ta ... o-jfk.html

[Unagi]

[gbasden]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/after-ta ... o-jfk.html

The URL of that article is really deceptive. The actual headline is that he has the opportunity to be like JFK. He certainly *could* push for increasing research into alternative energy and push for increasing innovation. I think the odds are very slim that things will work out that way, but anything is possible.

[Zarathud]

Flattery will get you everywhere with Trump.

[Max Peck]

Is it too soon to joke that JFK has at least one thing in common with Trump -- neither has more than half a brain?

[El Guapo]

Also Kennedy is one of the most badly overrated Presidents in modern history. He initiated American involvement in Vietnam, failed to advance civil rights legislation (and wasn't great about getting other things done either), and while he successfully diffused the Cuban Missile Crisis, he also played a significant role in *causing* the Cuban Missile Crisis. His renowned legacy is mostly a result of a few speeches plus getting shot in office.

[Pyperkub]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

[El Guapo]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

Right, it's the result of a few speeches (plus being photogenic and young), and being shot, with the "being shot" doing most of the work. But I can't really give him credit for getting shot, since presumably that was not his intention.

[NickAragua]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

Right, it's the result of a few speeches (plus being photogenic and young), and being shot, with the "being shot" doing most of the work. But I can't really give him credit for getting shot, since presumably that was not his intention.

No, no, Hilary Clinton did that.

[Max Peck]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

Right, it's the result of a few speeches (plus being photogenic and young), and being shot, with the "being shot" doing most of the work. But I can't really give him credit for getting shot, since presumably that was not his intention.

No, no, Hilary Clinton did that.

And tried to pin it on Ted Cruz's father, as I recall.

[Rip]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

Right, it's the result of a few speeches (plus being photogenic and young), and being shot, with the "being shot" doing most of the work. But I can't really give him credit for getting shot, since presumably that was not his intention.

No, no, Hilary Clinton did that.

And tried to pin it on Ted Cruz's father, as I recall.

Unsuccessfully, because that is how she rolls.

[Max Peck]

His legacy is his charisma and being the first made for TV candidate, and how that plus his untimely death led to all of the US government accomplishments of the 60's. His impact is not overrated, just his resume.

Right, it's the result of a few speeches (plus being photogenic and young), and being shot, with the "being shot" doing most of the work. But I can't really give him credit for getting shot, since presumably that was not his intention.

No, no, Hilary Clinton did that.

And tried to pin it on Ted Cruz's father, as I recall.

Unsuccessfully, because that is how she rolls.

True dat. The Donald™, OTOH, is the master at pulling off malfeasance.

[Isgrimnur]

Wisconsin climate change website sanitized of mentions of climate change:

Political writer James Rowen reported on Monday that the Walker administration had advanced their war on science by scrubbing information about climate change from a Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources website that was dedicated to explaining how the agency would deal with a warming planet.

The DNR page titled “climatechange.html” originally acknowledged that “[h]uman activities that increase heat–trapping (‘green house’) gases are the main cause [of global warming.] Earth´s average temperature has increased 1.4 °F since 1850 and the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 1998.”

In all, 13 mentions of “climate” where stripped from the page along with all references to global warming. The word “climate” now appears only in the title of a footnote link at the bottom of the page.

[hepcat]

Next on the agenda: gravity.

[NickAragua]

Next on the agenda: gravity.

Well, if we get rid of gravity, we'll solve the global warming problem for sure.

[Kraken]

Gov. Jerry Brown is not intimidated.

LOS ANGELES — Foreign governments concerned about climate change may soon be spending more time dealing with Sacramento than Washington.

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Cabinet members who dispute the science of global warming. He has signaled he will withdraw the United States from the Paris climate agreement. He has belittled the notion of global warming and attacked policies intended to combat it.

But California — a state that has for 50 years been a leader in environmental advocacy — is about to step into the breach. In a show of defiance, Governor Jerry Brown, a Democrat, and legislative leaders said they would work directly with other nations and states to defend and strengthen what were already far and away the most aggressive policies to fight climate change in the nation. That includes a legislatively mandated target of reducing carbon emissions in California to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.

“California can make a significant contribution to advancing the cause of dealing with climate change, irrespective of what goes on in Washington,” Brown said in an interview. “I wouldn’t underestimate California’s resolve if everything moves in this extreme climate denial direction. Yes, we will take action.”

[Max Peck]

Donald Trump makes top Republican fear environmental future

A leading US Republican says she fears for the future of her seven grandchildren with Donald Trump in the White House.

Christine Todd Whitman, head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under George W Bush, accused Mr Trump of ignoring compelling science.

And she warned that his threat to scrap climate protection policies puts the world's future at risk.

Trump supporters say rules on climate and energy are stifling business.

But Ms Todd Whitman says the US must find ways of promoting business without unduly harming the planet.

Details of Mr Trump's climate policy are not yet clear, but his team have talked about boosting coal, opening new oil pipelines, and allowing mining on public wilderness or drilling in the Arctic.

On the political side, they have suggested quitting the global climate deal, scrapping President Obama's clean power plan, and dismantling the US energy department along with the EPA itself.

[Isgrimnur]

Inoculating the Public against Misinformation about Climate Change

Effectively addressing climate change requires significant changes in individual and collective human behavior and decision-making. Yet, in light of the increasing politicization of (climate) science, and the attempts of vested-interest groups to undermine the scientific consensus on climate change through organized “disinformation campaigns,” identifying ways to effectively engage with the public about the issue across the political spectrum has proven difficult. A growing body of research suggests that one promising way to counteract the politicization of science is to convey the high level of normative agreement (“consensus”) among experts about the reality of human-caused climate change. Yet, much prior research examining public opinion dynamics in the context of climate change has done so under conditions with limited external validity. Moreover, no research to date has examined how to protect the public from the spread of influential misinformation about climate change. The current research bridges this divide by exploring how people evaluate and process consensus cues in a polarized information environment. Furthermore, evidence is provided that it is possible to pre-emptively protect (“inoculate”) public attitudes about climate change against real-world misinformation.

[Pyperkub]

Looking at the last time the Earth was this warm:

During the previous break between glacial periods, about 120,000 years ago, sea level was around six to nine meters (20 to 30 feet) higher than it is today, as the cycles in Earth’s orbit that drive the “ice ages” were in a particularly warm phase then. But working out precisely how warm that world was compared to the present day has been difficult...

...A group of researchers led by Jeremy Hoffman at Oregon State University compiled a large array of temperature records from seafloor sediment cores around the world to calculate the best possible average...

...In other words, it appears that temperatures today are now equivalent to the warmest from the last interglacial period, when sea level was much higher.

(Note that these are sea surface temperatures; the atmosphere has warmed more quickly.)

So if the planet stopped warming and stayed where it is today, the past gives us an idea of how much sea level rise we could expect to see in the long-term future. It would take much more than a century to complete that rise, but we are looking at well over five meters of elevation in the ocean.

Ouch. Maybe Al Gore wasn't that far off after all...

[Max Peck]

New mercury threat to oceans from climate change (Well, newly discovered.)

Rising temperatures could boost mercury levels in fish by up to seven times the current rates, say Swedish researchers.

They've discovered a new way in which warming increases levels of the toxin in sea creatures.

In experiments, they found that extra rainfall drives up the amount of organic material flowing into the seas.

This alters the food chain, adding another layer of complex organisms which boosts the concentrations of mercury up the line.

[LawBeefaroni]

Good chance we hit a record high today in Chicago. A rainstorm in February. WTF?