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The Global Warming Thread

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by coopasonic » Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:57 am

Paingod wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:48 am
31.2% ... but I believe the correct answer is "All of the above"
E) Haha, too late!
-Coop

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Jeff V » Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Really? Only 3% of the respondents were smart enough to scroll up so they could properly order the top 5 on that last question? :shock:

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by The Meal » Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:21 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:39 pm
Really? Only 3% of the respondents were smart enough to scroll up so they could properly order the top 5 on that last question? :shock:
The secret to my 47.x% result.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Blackhawk » Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:34 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:39 pm
Really? Only 3% of the respondents were smart enough to scroll up so they could properly order the top 5 on that last question? :shock:
Or were lazy enough that, for a random internet quiz, they just didn't care.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon May 13, 2019 1:38 pm

Common Dreams
Atmospheric levels of carbon registered 415 parts per million over the weekend at one of the world's key measuring stations, a concentration level researchers say has not existed in more than 3 million years – before the dawn of human history.

Taken at the Mauno Loa Observatory in Hawaii by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, the measure continues the upward trend of atmospheric carbon concentration that lies at the heart of the global warming and climate crisis:

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Mon May 13, 2019 8:25 pm

Kurth wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:26 pm
Front page headline on CNN this morning: Dianne Feinstein's climate change talk with a group of kids gets heated

This is a terrible look for Feinstein. At the same time, this is exactly the bad position AOC and the Green New Dealers are putting Democrats like Feintstein. It really pisses me off. It also makes me very, very worried about the upcoming election.
This kind of illustrates goverment capture senator for life Fienstien basically says (in a politic sort of way) that she has neither the will nor desire to listen to her constituents in sort of a brazen sort of way.

I just hope that the people manage to eject this sort of captured political deadwood before its too late.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Mon May 13, 2019 9:11 pm

That being said; I'm kind of optimistic about the future.

In times past we've had dramatic climate change effects occur in a short amount of time. The "mini ice age" caused by the destruction of the civilizations in the Americas being a good one.

I think what the world needs is a "manhattan project" style of program where we suck every available unemployed person into planting massive forests in places where there are none.

I just hope that by the time the governments of the world get their shit together that it's not too late.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by hitbyambulance » Mon May 13, 2019 10:06 pm


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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Kraken » Mon May 13, 2019 10:16 pm

hitbyambulance wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:06 pm
whereas someone like Jared Diamond says "There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World As We Know It Will End by 2050"
I am seeing this sentiment more and more often. The latest data show that the planet is warming faster than the major models' worst-case scenarios. We might already be in a runaway feedback loop. Although I resist being swept up by catastrophism, it's clear that there is little cause for optimism.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Mon May 13, 2019 10:26 pm

hitbyambulance wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:06 pm
whereas someone like Jared Diamond says "There’s a 49 Percent Chance the World As We Know It Will End by 2050"
Jared Diamond cant possibly predict the impact of future tech, political developments or even world events. His training, education and even life experience leading to a certain view on how things will go down.

I on the other hand believe that something will come along that will make it too expensive and disastrous to continue to ignore for the people at the top without being strung out from the nearest lamppost.

I just hope the tipping point comes soon enough to save our civilization and species. I choose for my own sanity to be optimistic.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo » Mon May 13, 2019 10:37 pm

Drazzil wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:26 pm
Jared Diamond cant possibly predict the impact of future tech, political developments or even world events. His training, education and even life experience leading to a certain view on how things will go down.
He bases his opinion on education, experience and history. You base yours on...magic? Eternal optimism? I literally don't care what people feel personally, it's when they undermine the validity of other peoples' opinions while pumping up their own, baseless ones that I start to take notice.

Hope is fine. I even hope you're right.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Mon May 13, 2019 10:54 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:37 pm
Drazzil wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:26 pm
Jared Diamond cant possibly predict the impact of future tech, political developments or even world events. His training, education and even life experience leading to a certain view on how things will go down.
He bases his opinion on education, experience and history. You base yours on...magic? Eternal optimism? I literally don't care what people feel personally, it's when they undermine the validity of other peoples' opinions while pumping up their own, baseless ones that I start to take notice.

Hope is fine. I even hope you're right.
I'm not undermining anyones opinion. I just pointed out that even with Mr. Diamond's extremely well informed backround; he is just a man. Lots of things happen that can't be predicted.

I base my opinion on the idea that humanity (when it decides something needs our full attention) is capable of miraculous things. It's already been proven that human kind is capable of changing the climate. As I pointed out earlier human beings have already caused mini ice ages. We just need to do it on purpose. 😊

I think the technology already exists (or could be) to create carbon sinks in a very short time, we just need the political will to do it.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo » Mon May 13, 2019 11:47 pm

We're all just men.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Blackhawk » Tue May 14, 2019 12:03 am

So, you're saying that we already have - or will have -the knowledge and tech to solve the problem, but we need the motivation before crossing the tipping point?

You're absolutely correct.

We have the knowledge and the tech either exists, or is a budget away from being developed. It has been for a while.

We need the motivation, social and political? Yes, we do. That motivation has to either outweigh - or bypass - the significant portion of the lawmakers in the United States that don't care if society falls to pieces after they die, so long as they can be rich until then. And I mean that literally. And that's just the US. The same thing has to happen worldwide. In China. In India. In Russia. All of them.
I just hope the tipping point comes soon enough to save our civilization and species.
The question is whether we get the motivation before the climate tipping point - the point of no return - gets here. There is a countdown timer on this sucker, and it is ticking, 24-style. Beep. Beep. Beep. Beep. Do we have enough time left on it for all of those nations to build enough motivation to sacrifice their comforts to force their politicians to sacrifice their own?

And here's the thing: There is more than one timer. The one for 'human extinction' doesn't exist. The one for 'societal collapse' does, and is ticking. The one for 'ecological and financial disaster' is sitting at 00:00:00. It ran out a while back. That much is already happening, even if we can get Mega Maid to go from blow to suck and pull out all of the CO2 and methane tomorrow.

The future doesn't look bright.
[This space left intentionally blank.]

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Tue May 14, 2019 12:33 am

What BH said.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Tue May 14, 2019 12:44 am

Blackhawk wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 12:03 am
So, you're saying that we already have - or will have -the knowledge and tech to solve the problem, but we need the motivation before crossing the tipping point?

You're absolutely correct.

We have the knowledge and the tech either exists, or is a budget away from being developed. It has been for a while.

We need the motivation, social and political? Yes, we do. That motivation has to either outweigh - or bypass - the significant portion of the lawmakers in the United States that don't care if society falls to pieces after they die, so long as they can be rich until then. And I mean that literally. And that's just the US. The same thing has to happen worldwide. In China. In India. In Russia. All of them.
I just hope the tipping point comes soon enough to save our civilization and species.
The question is whether we get the motivation before the climate tipping point - the point of no return - gets here. There is a countdown timer on this sucker, and it is ticking, 24-style. Beep. Beep. Beep. Beep. Do we have enough time left on it for all of those nations to build enough motivation to sacrifice their comforts to force their politicians to sacrifice their own?

And here's the thing: There is more than one timer. The one for 'human extinction' doesn't exist. The one for 'societal collapse' does, and is ticking. The one for 'ecological and financial disaster' is sitting at 00:00:00. It ran out a while back. That much is already happening, even if we can get Mega Maid to go from blow to suck and pull out all of the CO2 and methane tomorrow.

The future doesn't look bright.
:cry:
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo » Tue May 14, 2019 12:46 am

It might be time to start creating techno-vaults, a la Gripping Hand. I agree that Mankind isn't going anywhere, but having to churn butter by hand is going to suck. I assume. For those who are around for that to be an option anyway.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Kraken » Tue May 14, 2019 1:26 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:37 pm
Drazzil wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 10:26 pm
Jared Diamond cant possibly predict the impact of future tech, political developments or even world events. His training, education and even life experience leading to a certain view on how things will go down.
He bases his opinion on education, experience and history. You base yours on...magic? Eternal optimism? I literally don't care what people feel personally, it's when they undermine the validity of other peoples' opinions while pumping up their own, baseless ones that I start to take notice.

Hope is fine. I even hope you're right.
The experts are usually wrong. The more expertise you have, the more convinced you are of your own rightness, and the harder it is to assimilate conflicting information.
The experts were, by and large, horrific forecasters. Their areas of specialty, years of experience, and (for some) access to classified information made no difference. They were bad at short-term forecasting and bad at long-term forecasting. They were bad at forecasting in every domain. When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15 percent of them occurred nonetheless. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire. As the Danish proverb warns, “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
...
Eventually, Tetlock bestowed nicknames (borrowed from the philosopher Isaiah Berlin) on the experts he’d observed: The highly specialized hedgehogs knew “one big thing,” while the integrator foxes knew “many little things.”

Hedgehogs are deeply and tightly focused. Some have spent their career studying one problem. Like Ehrlich and Simon, they fashion tidy theories of how the world works based on observations through the single lens of their specialty. Foxes, meanwhile, “draw from an eclectic array of traditions, and accept ambiguity and contradiction,” Tetlock wrote. Where hedgehogs represent narrowness, foxes embody breadth.

Incredibly, the hedgehogs performed especially poorly on long-term predictions within their specialty. They got worse as they accumulated experience and credentials in their field. The more information they had to work with, the more easily they could fit any story into their worldview.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo » Tue May 14, 2019 2:33 am

Sigh. That's moronic in this context.

Scientists are experts and they predict stuff that happens next (i.e. the future) all the time. There are no "experts" on the future, so even in the context of the article, it's a pure fluff piece.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue May 14, 2019 9:42 am

Blackhawk wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 12:03 am
The future doesn't look bright.
And yet I'll probably need to wear these shades even more.

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The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zarathud » Tue May 14, 2019 9:48 am

I'll take a 75-85% probability over wild ass guesses anytime.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal. - Nixon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Kraken » Tue May 14, 2019 11:31 am

GreenGoo wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 2:33 am
Sigh. That's moronic in this context.

Scientists are experts and they predict stuff that happens next (i.e. the future) all the time. There are no "experts" on the future, so even in the context of the article, it's a pure fluff piece.
It's just a caution about "appeal to authority" arguments. When said authorities are all telling you the same thing (as in climate change), you don't want to wave them off. When one authority (Mr Diamond) asserts that there is a 49% chance of imminent social collapse, some skepticism is in order. (Personally, I think he's probably right; he's more of a fox than a hedgehog.)

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Pyperkub » Tue May 14, 2019 3:56 pm

Zarathud wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 9:48 am
I'll take a 75-85% probability over wild ass guesses anytime.
Will someone please donate for Drazzil?
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Tue May 14, 2019 5:05 pm


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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Kraken » Tue May 14, 2019 5:13 pm

As someone who hasn't seen any of the last season yet, I appreciate the spoiler-free analysis. I presume it's in the Global Warming thread because winter is here?

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Tue May 14, 2019 5:18 pm

Kraken wrote:
As someone who hasn't seen any of the last season yet, I appreciate the spoiler-free analysis. I presume it's in the Global Warming thread because winter is here?
Also because I'm an idiot. Must be the heat.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Tue May 14, 2019 10:04 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 3:56 pm
Zarathud wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 9:48 am
I'll take a 75-85% probability over wild ass guesses anytime.
Will someone please donate for Drazzil?
Seeing as I already believe in climate change, carbon dating and vaccination can you just send the $200 directly to me?

Just write your check out to "Drazzil" with two Z's*









*Note: Do not do this.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zarathud » Tue May 14, 2019 10:22 pm

But then how will we trap you for our new fur farming business?
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal. - Nixon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Tue May 14, 2019 10:49 pm

Zarathud wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:22 pm
But then how will we trap you for our new fur farming business?
*watches the joke go sailing over his head*

*snicker*
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zarathud » Wed May 15, 2019 1:43 am

"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal. - Nixon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Wed May 15, 2019 2:00 am

Zarathud wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 1:43 am
Image

Marmots
Ahh, cause of my pop up and dissappear style of posting.

*NOW* I get it... I think.

:D
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Enough » Fri May 17, 2019 2:30 pm

My blog (mostly photos): Fort Ephemera - My Flickr Photostream

“You only get one sunrise and one sunset a day, and you only get so many days on the planet. A good photographer does the math and doesn’t waste either.” ―Galen Rowell

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Blackhawk » Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm

I don't think I can get any more sobered.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Fri May 17, 2019 3:32 pm

Blackhawk wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
I don't think I can get any more sobered.
Next year, when we hit 420. Then 425 6 mo later...

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Fri May 17, 2019 3:33 pm

:arrow:
Blackhawk wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
I don't think I can get any more sobered.
Yep
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Blackhawk » Fri May 17, 2019 5:05 pm

Zaxxon wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:32 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
I don't think I can get any more sobered.
Next year, when we hit 420. Then 425 6 mo later...
I won't be any more sobered. I'm as sober as sober can be sobered already.
[This space left intentionally blank.]

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Fri May 17, 2019 5:42 pm

Blackhawk wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:32 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
I don't think I can get any more sobered.
Next year, when we hit 420. Then 425 6 mo later...
I won't be any more sobered. I'm as sober as sober can be sobered already.
Maybe it's time to start drinking.

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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Blackhawk » Fri May 17, 2019 9:50 pm

Might as well. I'm not sure anything else will help.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Drazzil » Fri May 17, 2019 9:52 pm

Zaxxon wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:42 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:32 pm
Blackhawk wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
I don't think I can get any more sobered.
Next year, when we hit 420. Then 425 6 mo later...
I won't be any more sobered. I'm as sober as sober can be sobered already.
Maybe it's time to start drinking.
I was reading the Q23 thread on the same topic and the following quote popped up there:
The rich will not suffer from climate change, and for that reason they won’t lift a finger to avoid it. If we don’t kill and eat them, they will inherit the future.
This is the most depressing part; that the MF'ers responsible for this will be the ones most insulated from the horrific changes wrought on our world.

I would'ave bet dollars to donuts that when the rest of the world went to hell these guys would be up against the wall pronto. My cynical side says they will find a way to profit and endure.

:grund:
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Sat May 18, 2019 1:31 am

When sea levels rise, the ones with the boats are sitting pretty.

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