US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Enough »

So you guys are saying I should skip any major purchases for the time being? (see how this can affect consumer spending without even yet defaulting?)
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by GreenGoo »

Thanks Fed.

Hmmm, can I get into a poker game with the Prez? He seems to have an easily identifiable "tell". As in he'll "tell" you when he's bluffing.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by SpaceLord »

By saying that they want tax loopholes closed only if offset by more tax cuts, and taking cuts in military spending off the table, the GOP has essentially said they don't care about reducing the deficit.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by SpaceLord »

Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Did you read the whole article? The meeting was over, the Pres was wrapping things up, and Cantor interrupted him for the third time, asking about the two-vote idea again. Yeah, totally Obama's petulance on display here.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Exodor »

Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Or...
“Obama was concluding the meeting, giving the closing remarks and talking about meeting tomorrow, Cantor interrupted him and raised for the third time doing a short-term, and Obama shut him down,” the aide said. “Cantor was playing the role he’s been playing throughout this whole thing — being not productive.”


I'd love to see this emoticon updated with little teeny Cantor and Obama faces:

:tjg:
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Mr. Fed »

SpaceLord wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Did you read the whole article? The meeting was over, the Pres was wrapping things up, and Cantor interrupted him for the third time, asking about the two-vote idea again. Yeah, totally Obama's petulance on display here.
You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by SpaceLord »

Mr. Fed wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Did you read the whole article? The meeting was over, the Pres was wrapping things up, and Cantor interrupted him for the third time, asking about the two-vote idea again. Yeah, totally Obama's petulance on display here.
You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
No, I didn't quote your initial statement about the bluff. I quoted your response, which pointed the blame only at Obama.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Mr. Fed »

The point of my quote was to give the context for the bluff quote, not to complain about him walking out.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Defiant »

Mr. Fed wrote:
Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
Indeed. But is everyone saying he called it a bluff? Or did you fall for someone's bluff? :wink:

Of course, there's also the question of whether Obama is a competent negotiator.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by GreenGoo »

I read it as as slip of the tongue.

i.e. Don't try to call me on it. I'm not playing games here. I'm not bluffing.

Turns into

Don't call my bluff.

Perhaps I'm being too lenient, but I can see that happening. But then, the humour value is lost.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Smoove_B »

Did we get to the part where S&P is speaking up and China is getting antsy?
"We hope that the U.S. government adopts responsible policies and measures to guarantee the interests of investors," foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said at a regular news briefing in Beijing, when asked about the Moody's report. He did not elaborate.
Yeah, I'm sure that's what Johnny Lunchbox is worrying about as well.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Exodor »

Mr. Fed wrote:You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
The source of that quote is Cantor. You'll forgive me if I assume it was a paraphrase, not a direct quote.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Mr. Fed »

Exodor wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
The source of that quote is Cantor. You'll forgive me if I assume it was a paraphrase, not a direct quote.
Fair enough.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by $iljanus »

Smoove_B wrote:Did we get to the part where S&P is speaking up and China is getting antsy?
"We hope that the U.S. government adopts responsible policies and measures to guarantee the interests of investors," foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said at a regular news briefing in Beijing, when asked about the Moody's report. He did not elaborate.
Yeah, I'm sure that's what Johnny Lunchbox is worrying about as well.

Fodder for 2012 attack ads if the debt limit is raised: "Why was Obama so eager to raise the debt limit? Obama...the Manchurian Candidate?" (Insert pic of Obama warmly welcoming the Chinese Prime Minister. And don't forget to use that voice actor with the deep, vaguely menacing voice for the narration.)
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by malchior »

Default could be good for the US?

CNBC is going way downhill. Way downhill.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Exodor »

Nate Silver shows how far off the deep end the Republicans are, even compared to Republican voters.
House Republicans are very unlikely to capitulate on their no-tax pledge. And Democrats have little reason to capitulate either: they are on the right side of public opinion
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

Exodor wrote:Nate Silver shows how far off the deep end the Republicans are, even compared to Republican voters.
House Republicans are very unlikely to capitulate on their no-tax pledge. And Democrats have little reason to capitulate either: they are on the right side of public opinion
That's daft. You need only look at California and its ballot initiatives to see the efficacy of ballot-box budgeting (i.e. public opinion).
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Pyperkub »

Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Exodor wrote:Nate Silver shows how far off the deep end the Republicans are, even compared to Republican voters.
House Republicans are very unlikely to capitulate on their no-tax pledge. And Democrats have little reason to capitulate either: they are on the right side of public opinion
That's daft. You need only look at California and its ballot initiatives to see the efficacy of ballot-box budgeting (i.e. public opinion).
Don't forget that one Republican budget solution is a constitutional amendment to turn the federal government into California by enacting the same 2/3 hurdles that California has. That is the goal of a large portion of the base - to break government. Republicans in power in CA are perfectly happy with California the way it is, and the way it's going.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Kurth »

Mr. Fed wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Did you read the whole article? The meeting was over, the Pres was wrapping things up, and Cantor interrupted him for the third time, asking about the two-vote idea again. Yeah, totally Obama's petulance on display here.
You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
Hmm. Being picky here (and not offering any opinions on the overall negotiating skill of the parties involved), but even if the President did say the "Don't call my bluff" phrase Cantor attributes to him, I don't think that's a slip or an admission in any way.

I'm no expert, but I've played a fair bit of poker, and people use that phrase all the time. It's not any kind of admission that they are, in fact, bluffing. In fact, just the opposite. It's based on an assumption that the other guy thinks you are bluffing but that he's dead wrong and shouldn't call you on it. If he calls, he's going to regret it, because you are NOT, in fact, bluffing.

Perhaps this is all apparent and I am missing the point, but there you have it. :wink:
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by silverjon »

I don't play poker, but that was my understanding of the idiom as a language-geek.
wot?

To be fair, adolescent power fantasy tripe is way easier to write than absurd existential horror, and every community has got to start somewhere... right?

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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Victoria Raverna »

Mr. Fed wrote:
SpaceLord wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Mr. Fed wrote:"Don't call my bluff!"

Good God.
Is this a general comment, a comment on something in the news I haven't read yet, or a comment specific to something posted in this thread (i.e. the faceoff in general)?
Republicans said tense negotiations over raising the $14.3 trillion debt limit at the White House ended when President Obama stormed out of the meeting with a stern warning to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.): “Don’t call my bluff.”
Did you read the whole article? The meeting was over, the Pres was wrapping things up, and Cantor interrupted him for the third time, asking about the two-vote idea again. Yeah, totally Obama's petulance on display here.
You're missing the point.

Typically, competent negotiators don't refer to their own positions as a bluff.
The one that claimed that Obama said "Don't call my bluff." is Cantor himself. As a competent negotiator, Obama probably didn't say that.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Zarathud »

My understanding is that the exchange went something like this:
Princess Bride wrote:Cantor: But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

Obama: You've made your decision then?

Cantor: Not remotely. Because iocane comes from Australia, as everyone knows, and Australia is entirely peopled with criminals, and criminals are used to having people not trust them, as you are not trusted by me, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you.

Obama: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

Cantor: Wait till I get going! Now, where was I?


We all know how this ends. Demanding that Obama raise the debt ceiling exposes the whole Republican demand for fiscal responsibility as political ploy.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Mr. Fed »

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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Quipp »

Exodor wrote:I'd love to see this emoticon updated with little teeny Cantor and Obama faces:

:tjg:
Image
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Exodor »

Quipp wrote:
Exodor wrote:I'd love to see this emoticon updated with little teeny Cantor and Obama faces:

:tjg:
Image

Holy crap.

Image
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by silverjon »

silverjon wrote:I don't play poker, but that was my understanding of the idiom as a language-geek.
Note that if the speaker says something along the lines of, "mwahahaha, I certainly called his bluff", the meaning changes with the context. But that wasn't the context.
wot?

To be fair, adolescent power fantasy tripe is way easier to write than absurd existential horror, and every community has got to start somewhere... right?

Unless one loses a precious thing, he will never know its true value. A little light finally scratches the darkness; it lets the exhausted one face his shattered dream and realize his path cannot be walked. Can man live happily without embracing his wounded heart?
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Exodor »

Obama: Cantor's story about him storming out not true

Image


(this emoticon is the greatest thing ever)
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Mr. Fed »

Quipp is proof of a loving God.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Pyperkub »

Mr. Fed wrote:Quipp is proof of a loving God.
Hells to the yeah! Awesome work Quipp!
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Pyperkub »

The German Papers' perspectives:
The conservative Die Welt writes:

"In this period of competing debt crises, America and Europe are looking at each other in amazement, with each side understanding less and less about what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic. While Europe's chaos is obvious to the Europeans and the rest of the world, there are few signs of self-doubt or self-awareness in the US. In the middle of the poker game between the two political parties to prevent a national default on Aug. 2, polls show that 77 percent of Americans believe that they live in the world's greatest system of government. Just as many are convinced that life is only worth living as an American."

"Democrats and Republicans are so hopelessly embroiled in a religious war that compromise and pragmatism are just dreams from a far-off era of reason. … The influence of the Tea Party movement … can not be overestimated. … The movement sees traditional politics as corrupt and regards Washington as a den of iniquity. … They see the other side as their enemy. Negotiations with the Democrats, whether it's about appointing a judge or the insolvency of the United States, are only successful if the enemy is defeated. Compromise, they feel, is a sign of weakness and cowardice."
And they run down what a couple of other papers are saying as well.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by GreenGoo »

I think the foreign press is talking out of it's ass, in terms of motivations and reasons for certain facts being in place. More reporting what is true and less speculation worded as fact would be nice. From all media.

I'm not so good at this research stuff. Where would a fella go to see the budget vs deficit of the US over the last, say, 20 years. After that, where would a person go to find out where the winfalls and short comings cane be found, given that a lot of expenditures are somewhat steady, with a growth rate that is sort of predictable, I'd like to see the big deviations from the predictable.

My goal, I suppose, is to try to discern how the US went from a surplus to an extremely large deficit in 8 years, and how big an impact the spending in 2007/2008 had on the current fiscal issues, or any major changes in spending over the nearly 12 years since the surplus.

I'd also like to see how the current administration's spending compares to other administrations, if you take the special circumstances of the financial market meltdown out of the equation. Are they currently spending money hand over fist, 4 years later? Were some of those payments differed until now?

Probably some of this one of you guys will know off the top of your head. I could use some edumacating.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by LordMortis »

Pyperkub wrote:The German Papers' perspectives:
The conservative Die Welt writes:

"In this period of competing debt crises, America and Europe are looking at each other in amazement, with each side understanding less and less about what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic. While Europe's chaos is obvious to the Europeans and the rest of the world, there are few signs of self-doubt or self-awareness in the US. In the middle of the poker game between the two political parties to prevent a national default on Aug. 2, polls show that 77 percent of Americans believe that they live in the world's greatest system of government. Just as many are convinced that life is only worth living as an American."

"Democrats and Republicans are so hopelessly embroiled in a religious war that compromise and pragmatism are just dreams from a far-off era of reason. … The influence of the Tea Party movement … can not be overestimated. … The movement sees traditional politics as corrupt and regards Washington as a den of iniquity. … They see the other side as their enemy. Negotiations with the Democrats, whether it's about appointing a judge or the insolvency of the United States, are only successful if the enemy is defeated. Compromise, they feel, is a sign of weakness and cowardice."
And they run down what a couple of other papers are saying as well.

Works for me. While, their off target, nothing unites and motivates the states like people outside of the states critiquing us.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by GreenGoo »

LordMortis wrote:Works for me. While, their off target, nothing unites and motivates the states like people outside of the states critiquing us.
From where I sit, it doesn't seem to do much motivating, except to get "you" all to hunker down and put your fingers in your ears while claiming that you don't give a shit what the world thinks of the US.

Hell, cheeba has repeatedly said as much, and with pride. :D

The issue this time, is that it's a very real, concrete problem that the US can't ignore without MAJOR consequences to themselves, not just the rest of the world (i.e. far away desert country filled with differently coloured people).
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote: My goal, I suppose, is to try to discern how the US went from a surplus to an extremely large deficit in 8 years, and how big an impact the spending in 2007/2008 had on the current fiscal issues, or any major changes in spending over the nearly 12 years since the surplus.
We went from boom growth to a long recession while reducing taxes and adding spending.

It's not that different than if your personal budget swings from positive to negative month to month or year to year.

Keep in mind, it's a rare government entity that has a budget surplus for long.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Isgrimnur »

Yup. If they don't spend their entire budget, they must not have needed it all, and will get less the following year. We punish budgetary responsibility.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by GreenGoo »

noxiousdog wrote:
We went from boom growth to a long recession while reducing taxes and adding spending.
I hear ya. The kind of thing I had in mind was graphs/charts/commentary on exactly where the growth occurred, how far it stripped "normal" (whatever that means) growth, as well as where the spending increases were focused, what new programs were put in place that had a significant impact on the budget (and out of curiosity, whether those programs accomplished there goals or were just money pits).

I may be biting off more than I can chew.

I could probably get away with a historical commentary on the economy, from as objective a source as possible, if possible. I guess I can start looking at recent book releases, but first I need to figure out who is known as a straight shooter and who is all sensation and flash.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by noxiousdog »

GreenGoo wrote:
noxiousdog wrote:
We went from boom growth to a long recession while reducing taxes and adding spending.
I hear ya. The kind of thing I had in mind was graphs/charts/commentary on exactly where the growth occurred, how far it stripped "normal" (whatever that means) growth, as well as where the spending increases were focused, what new programs were put in place that had a significant impact on the budget (and out of curiosity, whether those programs accomplished there goals or were just money pits).

I may be biting off more than I can chew.

I could probably get away with a historical commentary on the economy, from as objective a source as possible, if possible. I guess I can start looking at recent book releases, but first I need to figure out who is known as a straight shooter and who is all sensation and flash.
Much of that is available at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

You can also see basic GDP growth here.

It was about 50% higher than normal due a number of reasons, but imho primarily due to productivity gains from large scale adoption of the computer in the workplace.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Pyperkub »

McCardle has some interesting information up, tying in some of what's going on in Europe to here:
Indeed, investors' manic desire for safety last week reached levels not seen since the most acute days of the financial crisis in September and October 2008. Ironically, though, given the pathetic display in Washington and the country's ongoing fiscal troubles, people turned in droves to the perceived security of the U.S. Treasury market, even though it has never looked shakier.

. . . At the same time, it's an open secret on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has become increasingly concerned about the state of U.S. money-market funds. With as little fanfare as possible -- understandably, so as not to cause a panic -- the New York Fed has been urging domestic money- market funds to reduce their exposure to European banks, where the funds have turned to increase yields not available in the U.S. because of rock-bottom interest rates.

The Fed is said to be terribly worried that -- because of provisions in the Dodd-Frank law -- it will no longer be able to rescue a money-market fund if it "breaks the buck," as the Fed did famously the day after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Pyperkub
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Pyperkub »

noxiousdog wrote:
GreenGoo wrote: My goal, I suppose, is to try to discern how the US went from a surplus to an extremely large deficit in 8 years, and how big an impact the spending in 2007/2008 had on the current fiscal issues, or any major changes in spending over the nearly 12 years since the surplus.
We went from boom growth to a long recession while reducing taxes and adding spending.

It's not that different than if your personal budget swings from positive to negative month to month or year to year.

Keep in mind, it's a rare government entity that has a budget surplus for long.
I'd also add 9/11 and the war on terror were a huge part of that swing. Additionally, China's entry into the WTO has to factor in. The growth rate of 9.5% in annual foreign investment in China leads me to believe that many of the economic benefits of the Bush Tax cuts were invested abroad and not stateside.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Re: US is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece

Post by Isgrimnur »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Jul 08, 2011 1:21 pm It's misleading in that it's zoomed in with no natural zero point on the y-axis. Which is exactly the sort of thing that Wikipedia calls out as a no-no.
The most commonly seen "sensationalization" of graphs in the popular media is probably when the graph is drawn with the vertical axis starting not at 0, but somewhere just below the low point in the data being graphed. Both upward and downward trends are exaggerated, for a more exciting look.
...
For this reason, the graph ... is misleading. It is certainly more exciting than the "flatter" equivalent, but to be accurate, the graph should have been created with the vertical axis starting at 0.
If I were presenting the data, I would have started with a 0-100% y axis, and then made it clear that I was zooming in on a limited time frame and vertical section. This graph doesn't show anything outside of the last several years. Where are the historic comparisons? Where it the explanation section that details what he's trying to get across? It's a drive-by posting at best.
Image
We've also developed the semi-semi-log scale, where the Y-axis for the left half of the graph is a log scale but on the right half it isn't.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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