European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

[LordMortis]

Thought this bit of propaganda was interesting, though short on details, and fact, and such...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/0 ... Revolution" target="_blank

[GreenGoo]

I know nothing about what is happening in Iceland, although I do recall that it went belly-up (or close to it, my memory is not clear on this).

The talk of 2.5 million euro loans as of some significance for an entire country was amazing, since even my country, which I think of as small, works in billions of dollars, not millions.

I have no idea about the veracity of the article, but it is fascinating, if true.

[hitbyambulance]

I have no idea about the veracity of the article, but it is fascinating, if true.

i emailed this to my one Icelandic friend, and asked her if it was correct:

Pretty much, yeah. Although Iceland is not a member of the European Union and we didn´t quite declare bankruptcy but were close. And the new constitution is not ready and has not been accepted yet. I don´t think it has been decided how to change it, if it will be agreed by the parliament or by referendum or both...

Otherwise it´s pretty correct...

[LawBeefaroni]

The talk of 2.5 million euro loans as of some significance for an entire country was amazing, since even my country, which I think of as small, works in billions of dollars, not millions.

I have no idea about the veracity of the article, but it is fascinating, if true.

Well, Iceland's population is 1/100th that of Canada's. Its GDP, even at the peak, was measured in tens of billions while Canada's is measured in Trillion(s).

Also, I think at the time they were considered bad debt so it's a considerable amount IMO.

[GreenGoo]

Huh.

It's always interesting to hear how places that aren't North America operate. The similarities between the US and Canada out number the differences by multiple orders of magnitude, imo. So we can be pretty sheltered from how the rest of the world works.

Pretty damn fascinating, even if it comes on the end of some serious unpleasantness.

[GreenGoo]

The talk of 2.5 million euro loans as of some significance for an entire country was amazing, since even my country, which I think of as small, works in billions of dollars, not millions.

I have no idea about the veracity of the article, but it is fascinating, if true.

Well, Iceland's population is 1/100th that of Canada's. Its GDP, even at the peak, was measured in tens of billions while Canada's is measured in Trillion(s).

Also, I think at the time they were considered bad debt so it's a considerable amount IMO.

Oh, I get it. It's just strange, because some of us talk about our neighbours spending 2.5 million to buy/renovate their house. I think of individuals being worth millions, not countries. Yeah, it's a loan, not net worth. Still, when talking about countries I feel like there should be more zero's on the end. It's more a feeling than rational thought.

[LawBeefaroni]

Oh, I get it. It's just strange, because some of us talk about our neighbours spending 2.5 million to buy/renovate their house. I think of individuals being worth millions, not countries. Yeah, it's a loan, not net worth. Still, when talking about countries I feel like there should be more zero's on the end. It's more a feeling than rational thought.

Believe me, I feel the same way looking at it. It's funny how we get used to some of these unimaginably large numbers. I guess if anything, is shows how desperate the situation was/is.

[Pyperkub]

Apparently all the Central Banks think the euro is in big trouble, as the Federal Reserve launched a coordinated measure to loosen bank liquidity in Europe in the light of the ongoing issues there today, which the markets responded hugely to. Here's a Q&A from the Guardian:

What are the central banks doing?

They are taking action together to prevent the markets' panic about the future of the eurozone and the health of the banking sector from turning into a full-blown credit crunch, when banks refuse to lend to each other.

• How will they do that?

The Federal Reserve will make it cheaper for other central banks to borrow dollars; they will in turn lend those dollars on more cheaply to their own banks, cutting the interest rate on so-called "dollar swaps" by half a percentage point. In effect, it is an interest rate cut for banks. Although these so-called dollar swaps are available in all the countries involved, they are aimed specifically at tackling a shortage of dollars among the eurozone banks....

...Is Europe on the brink of recession?

Yes, share prices rocketed on news of the central banks' intervention but the co-ordinated action was a sign that Sir Mervyn King, Ben Bernanke and their counterparts around the world are deeply concerned about the impact of the banking squeeze on the real economy.

It appears as if this is a stopgap measure at best, but may buy some time to get a consensus on the European debt. May...

[Kasey Chang]

Sometimes, all the crisis needs is a "perception" that there is no problem for it to be resolved.

In 2007, there was a spike in rice prices around the world. It was caused by a single announcement, that India is going to keep some/most of its export rice home to feed its poor. This, like the proverbial butterfly effect, bounced around the world, causing Asian rice prices to spike up several hundred percent. Filipino American are buying out rice in SAN FRANCISCO to ship back to Philippines, at the worst part of the crisis.

All it took to resolve it was one announcement from the Japanese government, who happened to have a warehouse full of rice (oh, a million tons?), that it is for sale. And the prices dropped back to normal over next few months.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2011/1 ... ets-insane" target="_blank

[Kraken]

Sometimes, all the crisis needs is a "perception" that there is no problem for it to be resolved.

Consumer spending drives 70% of the US economy. If American consumers could be convinced to resume spending money they don't have to buy things that they don't need, the whole house of cards could rise again. The economy is all about mass psychology.

To do your part, click the link in my sig.

[Pyperkub]

Sometimes, all the crisis needs is a "perception" that there is no problem for it to be resolved.

In this case however, there appear to be more fundamental issues at play - to wit, that the PIIGS will never be able to pay down their debt. McCardle's take on the Central Banks' band-aid:

This is a band-aid. It's a good band-aid. But making it easier for local banks to borrow in dollars does not, in the end, fix any of the problems with the euro-zone. It just delays the rate at which the current sovereign crisis turns into a banking crisis.

A little more info (more McCardle):

1. Their bank debt is a much bigger than ours was. Here's the list I blogged last year of bank assets as a percentage of GDP:

Luxembourg 2,461%
Ireland 872%
Switzerland 723%
Denmark 477%
Iceland 458%
Netherlands 432%
United Kingdom 389%
Belgium 380%
Sweden 340%
France 338%
Austria 299%
Spain 251%
Germany 246%
Finland 205%
Australia 205%
Portugal 188%
Canada 157%
Italy 151%
Greece 141%

For comparison purposes, ours was about 82% of GDP.

Now, these numbers have obviously changed somewhat since then, but it's a good rough guide. An American bailout of the banking system (in 2008) was painful-but-feasible. Depending on the level of impairment, a French bailout of their banking system might simply not be.

[noxiousdog]

For comparison purposes, ours was about 82% of GDP.

Now, these numbers have obviously changed somewhat since then, but it's a good rough guide. An American bailout of the banking system (in 2008) was painful-but-feasible. Depending on the level of impairment, a French bailout of their banking system might simply not be.

[/quote]

Ours just recently crossed 100% of GDP

[Grifman]

The talk of 2.5 million euro loans as of some significance for an entire country was amazing, since even my country, which I think of as small, works in billions of dollars, not millions.

I have no idea about the veracity of the article, but it is fascinating, if true.

Well, Iceland's population is 1/100th that of Canada's. Its GDP, even at the peak, was measured in tens of billions while Canada's is measured in Trillion(s).

Also, I think at the time they were considered bad debt so it's a considerable amount IMO.

The amounts in the article are wrong, they should be in billions, not millions. With 320,000 people a $3MM loan would only be $10 per person.

[stessier]

The amounts in the article are wrong, they should be in billions, not millions. With 320,000 people a $3MM loan would only be $10 per person.

We'd still complain about paying it, though.

[Kasey Chang]

Planet Money got another classic: comparing the two central banks (our Federal Reserve, and European Central Bank) to superheros, and how their origin stories shaped their world view.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/12/ ... bat-signal" target="_blank

[Kasey Chang]

NPR's Planet Money reports that the Head of Greek Statistics Office (the office that produce the deficit numbers), has been charged with "betrayal of public trust" (i.e. treason), which could carry a life sentence, for giving the EuroStat office (their EU equivalent) the "real numbers", which made Greece look bad and allowed the EU budget takeover.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/12/ ... own-europe" target="_blank (no transcript yet)

[Rip]

Right. The market has yet to realize what you know to be true.

They (will) realize it. Just the market is like molasses some times.

When the headline has read pretty much like this another 48 weeks or so the momentum will be difficult to reverse.

Stocks sell off as banks tank

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday as bank shares took a beating amid fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.

The selling was driven by speculation that BofA and the other big U.S. banks will need to raise more capital, said Rovelli.
U.S. banks have been hit by concerns about their exposure to bonds issued by fragile governments in the eurozone. In addition, traders pointed to reports that tougher regulations on banks could come to pass sooner than expected
The European Central Bank warned that "contagion effects" have intensified as borrowing costs have risen for larger euro area governments, according to its latest Financial Stability Review.
The government debt and banking problems in the eurozone represent "systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago," the ECB said.

I guess the sign will be that they no longer refer to any of it as "fresh concerns". Personally I would love someone to refer to them as stale concerns.

[GreenGoo]

Right. The market has yet to realize what you know to be true.

They (will) realize it. Just the market is like molasses some times.

When the headline has read pretty much like this another 48 weeks or so the momentum will be difficult to reverse.

If I remember correctly, the "market" being discussed was US T-Bills and other American government debt vehicles.

We can revisit the topic when the US is forced to increase interest rates (on T-Bills etc) to make them more attractive. i.e. when the US has trouble borrowing. Maybe that has already occurred. I haven't been paying attention.

[Rip]

Right. The market has yet to realize what you know to be true.

They (will) realize it. Just the market is like molasses some times.

When the headline has read pretty much like this another 48 weeks or so the momentum will be difficult to reverse.

If I remember correctly, the "market" being discussed was US T-Bills and other American government debt vehicles.

We can revisit the topic when the US is forced to increase interest rates (on T-Bills etc) to make them more attractive. i.e. when the US has trouble borrowing. Maybe that has already occurred. I haven't been paying attention.

Do you think the rates are so low because they are such a good investment or because the alternatives have become so bad? I would go with the latter. They could loan two or three times as much with little effect on the rate at the moment, but I think in the long term that would be an obvious suicide high.

Unless we turn a reasonable rate of return on the money we borrow it is unwise to keep borrowing more, and it seems to me a substantial amount is essentially pissed away making even more we need to get out of every dollar that isn't. Given that we lack the option of putting money into an asset that will appreciate substantially.

[GreenGoo]

Fine.

We'll continue to wait and see. Nothing has changed since the last time we decided to wait and see though.

ND will have to take it from here. Like I said, I'm not really watching what is going on with US interest rates.

[Pyperkub]

Saw this linked from McCardle:

No: the one chart that truly captures the latent fear behind the scenes in Europe is that showing youth unemployment in the continent's troubled countries (and frankly everywhere else). Because the last thing Europe needs is a discontented, disenfranchised, and devoid of hope youth roving the streets with nothing to do, easily susceptible to extremist and xenophobic tendencies

I agree that this is a recipe for revolution.

[Freezer-TPF-]

That's what iPhones and facebook are for. Keep those idle youth busy and away from the graffiti cans and molotovs.

[El Guapo]

With unemployment dropping in the U.S. (admittedly not as fast as is optimal, but with nonetheless good hope for the future), Europe is now my #1 source of economic anxiety.

[Rip]

With unemployment dropping in the U.S. (admittedly not as fast as is optimal, but with nonetheless good hope for the future), Europe is now my #1 source of economic anxiety.

Don't drink the kool-aid. The labor force participation is nose-diving. The way it is going we may reach full employment, just with only 25% participation rate.

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.

Chart below shows it all - that jump is not a fat finger!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12 ... e-tumbles-

[Zarathud]

Or don't jump to any conclusions, Rip. This is a census adjustment, not a real change.

Nate Silver pointed me to the BLS extrapolation of their population adjustment data (Table C at the bottom of this release). Long story short: the 1.2 million change in "Not in the Labor Force" is due entirely to the population adjustment and is not (as I assumed when writing this post) a straight across-the-board proportional increase. From December-January, we actually saw a "Not in the Labor Force" decrease which would mean people returning to the workforce. This is awesome. I'll leave this post here as a testament to my own ignorance.

http://www.politicalmathblog.com/?p=1697" target="_blank

At least you're in good company (aside from that sketchy Tyler Durden dude)....

[Rip]

So March 20th is the date I am hearing now for the Greek debt pimple to burst. I have yet to find a single optimistic story concerning the situation. It seems a battle over terrible, dire, or catastrophic.

As the clock ticks toward March 20, when Greece is due to pay off 14.5 billion euros of maturing debt, euro region officials are scrambling to align competing schedules with a private-sector bond swap designed to slice about 100 billion euros off Greece’s debt.

Officials are targeting a window of Feb. 22 to March 9 to complete the swap transaction, German lawmakers were told during a briefing by government officials. The swap would then begin by March 8 at the latest and be completed by March 11, according to state-run Athens News Agency. Still, the exchange can only proceed once governments authorize funds to be used in cash or collateral as an incentive to investors.

Euro-area ministers heard on a Feb. 15 conference call that without further measures, Greece will miss debt-reduction goals. Outstanding debt would fall to 129 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, missing a targeted 120 percent, according to three people familiar with the talks.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble signaled flexibility on the target, saying in Stuttgart on Feb. 17 that “the 120 percent may be 122 percent or 123 percent, it mustn’t be 130 percent.”

Before he flew to Brussels, Papademos signaled his government had identified the cuts necessary to lower spending by 325 million euros, offering more guarantees that Greece will fulfill its side of the bargain.

“A euro exit by one member could fundamentally change the nature of the euro as an irreversible currency and spark an unprecedented run on banks and sovereigns,” Joachim Fels, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients yesterday.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... inger.html

[LawBeefaroni]

This pretty much says it all:







And the Greeks are lashing out:

Greeks angry at the fate of the euro are comparing the German government with the Nazis who occupied the country in the Second World War.

Newspaper cartoons have presented modern-day German officials dressed in Nazi uniform, and a street poster depicts Chancellor Angela Merkel dressed as an officer in Hitler’s regime accompanied with the words: ‘Public nuisance.’

I mean when you consider what real Nazi occupation actually meant to Greece, this kind of Greek rhetoric is scary stuff.

[Mr Bubbles]

So the Greeks are lining up right behind the Poles on who hates Germany more these days.

[Rip]

Per Capita Government Debt

[noxiousdog]

Per Capita Government Debt

Compare that to per capita GDP.

[Rip]

Per Capita Government Debt

Compare that to per capita GDP.

OK, Per Capita GDP/Per Capita Debt
US $48K/$44k
Ireland $40K/$43K
Italy $30K/$40K
Greece $28K/$39K
France $35K/$33K
Portugal $23K/$20K
Spain $31K/$18K

Doesn't make me any less concerned. Maybe if I were Spanish, but I doubt it.

I wonder if any of them plan on spending $75K per in ten years?

[Grifman]

Per Capita Government Debt

Compare that to per capita GDP.

Or percentage of GDP. Either way, we are much better off than this shows.

[Rip]

Per Capita Government Debt

Compare that to per capita GDP.

Or percentage of GDP. Either way, we are much better off than this shows.

Have another glass of Kool-Aid.

With economic growth projected to be barely over 2% this year it will get even worse. Poor growth, rising fuel and commodity prices. The numbers are what they are and I see no reason to expect things are getting better. Most voters (even liberals) know that the so called recovery is an illusion.

Even Democratic voters are not buying President Obama's claims that the economy is recovering because of his policies.

According to a new memo by Democracy Corps, the polling organization founded by Democrats James Carville and Stan Greenberg, Obama's State of the Union job creation claims were one of the least popular messages tested.

"Just pouring sugar on the thing to create a few temporary jobs is going to get us no place," one Democratic-leaning focus group participant told Democracy Corps. A Republican-leaning participant was even harsher: "I don't see the kind of jobs numbers that I hear about from him.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer. ... ord/393456

[noxiousdog]

The irony of course, is you have no interest in lowering the debt. You only have an interest in lowering the spending. Which is fine, but don't use debt arguments. Those are different.

[Rip]

The irony of course, is you have no interest in lowering the debt. You only have an interest in lowering the spending. Which is fine, but don't use debt arguments. Those are different.

Oh but I do. I would cut many things across the board. Entitlements included.

Of course that would prevent me from getting elected. I have always been opposed to our growing debt.

I just propose it be by cutting spending on a 5:1 or higher ratio with revenue increases via methods that you would also not agree with.

[noxiousdog]

The irony of course, is you have no interest in lowering the debt. You only have an interest in lowering the spending. Which is fine, but don't use debt arguments. Those are different.

Oh but I do. I would cut many things across the board. Entitlements included.

Of course that would prevent me from getting elected. I have always been opposed to our growing debt.

I just propose it be by cutting spending on a 5:1 or higher ratio with revenue increases via methods that you would also not agree with.

You miss my meaning. Debt is simply revenue - spending.

Either, the spending is needed or the spending is not. It should have no relationship to the debt. If the spending is needed then we need revenue to match. If the spending is not needed, we shouldn't spend and the revenue should fall.

Debt is simply a side effect and shouldn't be part of the equation (though it can still be a useful tool.)

[Rip]

The irony of course, is you have no interest in lowering the debt. You only have an interest in lowering the spending. Which is fine, but don't use debt arguments. Those are different.

Oh but I do. I would cut many things across the board. Entitlements included.

Of course that would prevent me from getting elected. I have always been opposed to our growing debt.

I just propose it be by cutting spending on a 5:1 or higher ratio with revenue increases via methods that you would also not agree with.

You miss my meaning. Debt is simply revenue - spending.

Either, the spending is needed or the spending is not. It should have no relationship to the debt. If the spending is needed then we need revenue to match. If the spending is not needed, we shouldn't spend and the revenue should fall.

Debt is simply a side effect and shouldn't be part of the equation (though it can still be a useful tool.)

Didn't you see the part about the debt doubling?
It is what happens when you go spend crazy and have no hope of generating the revenue to cover it.
You can only tax so much before it avalanches like a reverse polarized diode. You can't generate revenue by taxing an already stumbling economy, so the only alternative is drastically cut spending. I oppose the spending because it is unsustainable and if we keep it up the 10% of the revenue we spend just on debt interest will soon be 20-25%. How much spending do you think we will be able to afford then?

It isn't about what we want to think we should spend. We need to start thinking about what we can afford to spend.

[Zarathud]

You can only tax so much before it avalanches like a reverse polarized diode. You can't generate revenue by taxing an already stumbling economy, so the only alternative is drastically cut spending.

Wrong. The other alternative is deficit spending. No matter how much you want to believe otherwise, Keynes remains valid. Even the Bush administration showed it works.

The trick is to actually make sure that future taxes are used to pay off the accumulated debt, rather than to make reckless and unsustainable tax cuts. The wheels fell off the bus of fiscal responsibility when the Bush administration decided to "return the surplus" by cutting taxes rather than paying down debt.

We need to think about raising taxes to support some of our spending, and cutting spending where we're not willing to pay the fare.

[Grifman]

Per Capita Government Debt

Compare that to per capita GDP.

Or percentage of GDP. Either way, we are much better off than this shows.

Have another glass of Kool-Aid.

With economic growth projected to be barely over 2% this year it will get even worse. Poor growth, rising fuel and commodity prices. The numbers are what they are and I see no reason to expect things are getting better. Most voters (even liberals) know that the so called recovery is an illusion.

Please read what I write and not what you think I write. I said we are (that is present tense, not future tense) better off than your graph shows. That is a fact and has nothing to do with Kool Aid. But that says nothing about the future and your graph said nothing about the future, so stop moving the goal posts. I agree that things will get worse unless something is done. But that is the future, not the current numbers.

So get off your high horse.

[noxiousdog]

You can only tax so much before it avalanches like a reverse polarized diode. You can't generate revenue by taxing an already stumbling economy, so the only alternative is drastically cut spending.

Wrong. The other alternative is deficit spending. No matter how much you want to believe otherwise, Keynes remains valid. Even the Bush administration showed it works.

The trick is to actually make sure that future taxes are used to pay off the accumulated debt, rather than to make reckless and unsustainable tax cuts. The wheels fell off the bus of fiscal responsibility when the Bush administration decided to "return the surplus" by cutting taxes rather than paying down debt.

We need to think about raising taxes to support some of our spending, and cutting spending where we're not willing to pay the fare.

I don't know that I'd go so far as to say that it 'works.' Let's say it has an impact.