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European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by AWS260 » Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:45 pm

If all else fails, Greece can always resort to selling virtual hats.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Moliere » Wed Jun 03, 2015 10:30 am

Greece threatens to skip IMF payment
Greece threatened to miss a loan repayment to the IMF this week, opening the way for possible default, just hours before creditors were expected to present an ultimatum offering Athens funds in return for economic reform.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras visits Brussels later on Wednesday to see senior European officials, where he is expected to hear the terms of the plan drawn up this week at a meeting of top leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He called on creditors to show some "realism", saying he wanted a deal that would let Greece escape from "economic asphyxiation" and put an end to "doomsday scenarios", including his country being ejected from the single European currency.

With time running out, and looking to draw a line under months of acrimonious negotiations, Greece's creditors have effectively come up with a take-it-or-leave-it offer.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Max Peck » Thu Jun 11, 2015 10:17 am

In Capitalist America, you write jokes; in Socialist Europe, jokes write... you? No, that doesn't work, but at least the jokes write themselves.

EU says time for Greek 'happy ending' (Double-double entendre FTW!)
BBC.com wrote:EU Commissioner Pierre Moscovici has said a Greek debt deal is close but needs a "happy ending", as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras pushes for an agreement in Brussels. After a late-night meeting with French and German leaders, Mr Tsipras said they had decided to intensify talks. He was due to meet European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday. Greece is seeking a cash-for-reform deal, to avoid defaulting on a €1.5bn debt repayment to the IMF. But the EU and IMF are unhappy with the extent of economic reforms the Athens government is offering in exchange for the release of a final €7.2bn (£5.3bn) in bailout funds. The president of Germany's Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, emphasised that time was running out for a deal, and that "the risk of insolvency is increasing by the day". And ratings agency Standard and Poors pushed Greece's credit rating into junk territory, warning that without a deal it could default on commercial debt within a year.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:16 pm

Greece
Greece may have staved off a plunge into new financial crisis and a forced exit from the Eurozone – for now – as a package of new taxes and reforms received a grudging welcome in Brussels.

Monday was billed as crunch-day for the Greek economy, as the government's cupboards are bare and multi-billion-dollar loans come due, the first at the end of the month.

Greece took a new package of proposals, written up on the weekend, to Brussels, to a lunchtime meeting of Europe's finance ministers followed by an evening meeting of country leaders.

The new proposals were only received by some European finance ministers hours before they were due in Brussels, causing many to grumble ahead of the meeting.

In the end, they refused to give their final stamp of approval, saying they needed to see the details.
...
In an interview with the BBC, Greece's Economy Minister Giorgos Stathakis said his country's new proposals had broken the deadlock: money-making measures including a new tax on large businesses, higher taxes on the wealthy (the so-called 'solidarity tax'), and some increases in consumption tax (VAT) on selected items.

Greece's Syriza government, led by Alexis Tsipras, had not crossed any of its "red lines", avoiding further reductions in pensions or public sector wages.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by em2nought » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:13 pm

Max Peck wrote: EU says time for Greek 'happy ending' (Double-double entendre FTW!)
BBC.com wrote:
Tzatziki for everyone! :mrgreen:
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Matrix » Wed Jun 24, 2015 10:51 am

This isnt going to end well, there is only so much Greece can do before collapsing. They just dont have 200+ Billion they owe. Its like living on a borrowed time. This is closet it came to colapse, but i fell that if things were unstable for everyone, it would have never passed. Greece itself doesnt want the deal, bleh, sucks to be Greek right now.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 1:01 pm

So you're saying now is a good time to buy a Greek island.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:02 pm

GreenGoo wrote:So you're saying now is a good time to buy a Greek island.
Depends. If you think Greece is ultimately going to have to exit the Eurozone and (presumably) re-issue the Drachma, prices may well go down even further.

It would be good to keep an eye out for cheap vacations to Santorini. That place is f'ing beautiful.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:25 pm

Even if prices dropped through the floor, can you imagine the resentment from the locals? You'd be seen as a vulture/scavenger, and they'd be right. Ugh.

If I could guarantee that no one would burn the place to the ground, I'd consider looking closer.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:28 pm

GreenGoo wrote:Even if prices dropped through the floor, can you imagine the resentment from the locals? You'd be seen as a vulture/scavenger, and they'd be right. Ugh.

If I could guarantee that no one would burn the place to the ground, I'd consider looking closer.
Well, they're still better off with you coming than not coming. You would be spending money.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jun 24, 2015 2:34 pm

And since the Americans will be "ruining" Cuba for the Canadians any day now, you'll need somewhere else to vacation.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:00 pm

El Guapo wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:Even if prices dropped through the floor, can you imagine the resentment from the locals? You'd be seen as a vulture/scavenger, and they'd be right. Ugh.

If I could guarantee that no one would burn the place to the ground, I'd consider looking closer.
Well, they're still better off with you coming than not coming. You would be spending money.
Greeks haven't seemed all that rational for the last year or so.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:01 pm

The less said about the giant wooden horse on the doorstep of the IMF, the better.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:21 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:The less said about the giant wooden horse on the doorstep of the IMF, the better.
:D

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Rip » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:34 am

I tried to read through the stuff, but it was all Greek to me.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by El Guapo » Thu Jun 25, 2015 7:27 am

Isgrimnur wrote:The less said about the giant wooden horse on the doorstep of the IMF, the better.
Still works!

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by gilraen » Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:39 am

GreenGoo wrote:Even if prices dropped through the floor, can you imagine the resentment from the locals? You'd be seen as a vulture/scavenger, and they'd be right. Ugh.
It's the height of Mediterranean cruise season - Greek ports are full of cruise ship passengers (not just Americans - lots of Australians and Europeans, too). I think locals know better than to screw with the shore tour market, some of those towns couldn't survive without it even before the economic crisis.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Moliere » Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:05 pm

Don't let the Greek banks open on Monday?

I'm sure that will stop the panic. :pop:
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Moliere » Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:47 am

"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Drazzil » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:16 am

This whole situation makes me extremely angry.

The Greeks are making it worse by not making the structural changes to be able to be financially solvent. The Europeans are making it worse by constantly renegotiating an unsustainable debt. It will never be repaid as is, these half measures and kicking the can are screwing with the world economy.

Greece should do the following immediately:


1. Exit the Euro.

2. Float a new currency, call it the "New Drachma" Pay all outstanding debts in the new currency. Old debt-holders are now invested in Greece's success. If they abandon Greece their shiny new currency becomes worthless.

It would be bad for a few years maybe. Eventually tourism and manufacturing will flood in because of the new rock bottom currency.

But since we do not do this, Greece holds the Eurozone hostage, and visa versa.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:29 am

Drazzil wrote: 2. Float a new currency, call it the "New Drachma" Pay all outstanding debts in the new currency. Old debt-holders are now invested in Greece's success. If they abandon Greece their shiny new currency becomes worthless.
Or they just say, "No, we won't accept New Drachma. Enjoy destitution and revolt." The amount Greece owes is a lot by their standards but it's only about 2% of the Eurozone GDP.

Here's a [possibly over]simplistic take:
EK: Why is this happening right now though? What's changed from, say, six months ago?

AP: What has changed since a year ago is a breakdown in trust and a change in politics. The economic fundamentals really haven’t changed. But you have this new government in Greece that is taking a harder line with its creditors. They’re saying, basically, we can’t pay all this back, you need to be more realistic. And the European leadership has reacted to this first by saying, sorry, that deal is not on the table, and second, by saying, we basically just don’t trust you. You’ll tell us one thing and then go do something else.

So that’s the key: the economics didn’t change. It was a change in the Greek government, and then a change in the relationship between that government and the rest of Europe.


EK: One thing that makes this hard to follow from the US is it's not entirely clear which outcome to be rooting for. Greece can stay in the euro and try to endure grinding depression for years and years or they can leave the euro and endure a financial crisis. Which outcome is better?

AP: It’s easy to say what people should want to happen in Greece. It’s just impossible to get there. The Northern Europeans should write a check and make this go away. They should accept the fact that Greece is not going to pay most of its debts. They also need to accept that these debts are partly their fault. These loans were made by Northern European financial institutions, and the Northern Europeans should suffer for making stupid loans, too.

But that won’t happen. Northern European governments like Germany, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Sweden don’t want their banks to lose money and they don’t want to tell their voters that they’re handing money to the Greeks
.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Drazzil » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:44 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Drazzil wrote: 2. Float a new currency, call it the "New Drachma" Pay all outstanding debts in the new currency. Old debt-holders are now invested in Greece's success. If they abandon Greece their shiny new currency becomes worthless.
Or they just say, "No, we won't accept New Drachma. Enjoy destitution and revolt." The amount Greece owes is a lot by their standards but it's only about 2% of the Eurozone GDP.

Here's a [possibly over]simplistic take:
EK: Why is this happening right now though? What's changed from, say, six months ago?

AP: What has changed since a year ago is a breakdown in trust and a change in politics. The economic fundamentals really haven’t changed. But you have this new government in Greece that is taking a harder line with its creditors. They’re saying, basically, we can’t pay all this back, you need to be more realistic. And the European leadership has reacted to this first by saying, sorry, that deal is not on the table, and second, by saying, we basically just don’t trust you. You’ll tell us one thing and then go do something else.

So that’s the key: the economics didn’t change. It was a change in the Greek government, and then a change in the relationship between that government and the rest of Europe.


EK: One thing that makes this hard to follow from the US is it's not entirely clear which outcome to be rooting for. Greece can stay in the euro and try to endure grinding depression for years and years or they can leave the euro and endure a financial crisis. Which outcome is better?

AP: It’s easy to say what people should want to happen in Greece. It’s just impossible to get there. The Northern Europeans should write a check and make this go away. They should accept the fact that Greece is not going to pay most of its debts. They also need to accept that these debts are partly their fault. These loans were made by Northern European financial institutions, and the Northern Europeans should suffer for making stupid loans, too.

But that won’t happen. Northern European governments like Germany, Finland, Austria, the Netherlands, and Sweden don’t want their banks to lose money and they don’t want to tell their voters that they’re handing money to the Greeks
.
Of course they would accept. Something of something is better then nothing of nothing. There is everything to lose by walking away. Say the creditors do walk away. Now there is an angry basket-case of a country that would descend into civil war or despotism rapidly. How does the rest of Europe win that game? Refugees. I doubt that the rest of the EU would want to see a Somalia on their southern border. I read somewhere that Greece has Europe's fourth largest military.

Really think Europe is going to allow that?
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:49 am

Who's paying the military in your scenario? With what? Money has value because it is perceived to have value. Who's going to look at this new currency and think phew, finally I can buy something? More importantly, who's going to trade goods and services for the new currency?

If Greece was a self contained economy, it might work after a little (or a lot) of civil unrest, riots and violence. It's not, so you get all that and still can't buy a damn thing.

Is Greece too big to fail? By who's standards? Who's going to pay for it?

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jun 30, 2015 10:51 am

Drazzil wrote:
Of course they would accept. Something of something is better then nothing of nothing. There is everything to lose by walking away. Say the creditors do walk away. Now there is an angry basket-case of a country that would descend into civil war or despotism rapidly. How does the rest of Europe win that game? Refugees. I doubt that the rest of the EU would want to see a Somalia on their southern border. I read somewhere that Greece has Europe's fourth largest military.

Really think Europe is going to allow that?
And you're proposing that they would they accept funny money instead? That's what I was responding too. That faced with the "New Drachma" scenario, they would call Greece's bluff.

Sure refugees streaming across your border sucks. But you know what sucks worse? Being the country they are fleeing from.

The new drachma would never take, USD would be the de facto currency, and the EU would never get paid. They know that. Greece knows that. It's just a game of poker right now.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:02 am

RE: Military concerns, we get a 21st century Operation Gladio. It becomes another proxy battle between us and the Russians propping up the opposing radicals.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Drazzil » Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:06 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Drazzil wrote:
Of course they would accept. Something of something is better then nothing of nothing. There is everything to lose by walking away. Say the creditors do walk away. Now there is an angry basket-case of a country that would descend into civil war or despotism rapidly. How does the rest of Europe win that game? Refugees. I doubt that the rest of the EU would want to see a Somalia on their southern border. I read somewhere that Greece has Europe's fourth largest military.

Really think Europe is going to allow that?
And you're proposing that they would they accept funny money instead? That's what I was responding too. That faced with the "New Drachma" scenario, they would call Greece's bluff.

Sure refugees streaming across your border sucks. But you know what sucks worse? Being the country they are fleeing from.

The new drachma would never take, USD would be the de facto currency, and the EU would never get paid. They know that. Greece knows that. It's just a game of poker right now.
See thats where we differ. I think a new Drachma would work, if accompanied by real financial reforms, start with a new tax code.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:13 am

Drazzil wrote:See thats where we differ. I think a new Drachma would work, if accompanied by real financial reforms, start with a new tax code.
Clearly. We are just waiting to hear why you think it would work, or what timeline you think it would start working, and what you think the side effects would be in the meantime.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:30 am

Drazzil wrote: See thats where we differ. I think a new Drachma would work, if accompanied by real financial reforms, start with a new tax code.
All ears. In general, what reforms and what tax code?
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by hepcat » Tue Jun 30, 2015 12:46 pm

What tax code is right, considering that one of the national past times is apparently tax evasion.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Drazzil » Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:26 pm

Cheap new drachma. Tourism and manufacturing.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jun 30, 2015 1:38 pm

Drazzil wrote:Cheap new drachma.
The Drazzma.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Vorret » Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:15 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Drazzil wrote:Cheap new drachma.
The Drazzma.
:lol:
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jun 30, 2015 2:33 pm

Drazzil wrote:Cheap new drachma. Tourism and manufacturing.
I can hear Christine Lagarde calling you right now.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Zarathud » Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:00 pm

Tax code doesn't matter when you have a real Great Depression that stops economic activity. Austerity killed the Greek economy, doing more harm than good. The problem is that the rest of the EU doesn't care until it hits their own people.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:19 pm

If I can read between the lines, I think Drazzil is saying that a cheap currency will lead to lots more tourism and new manufacturing industries.

But I don't see that happening.

I see breakdown in public services and infrastructure, which would make tourism and manufacturing less appealing. And the cheap currency will just lead to high inflation with the Euro or USD being preferred.

The only way that the New Drachma would work the way Draz envisions is if they announce it far in advance and everyone immediately speculatively invests in manufacturing and tourism before it is rolled out. Which no one is going to do. They'll wait and see and by the time they do, Greece will be in the throes of hyperinflation.
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Vorret » Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:29 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:If I can read between the lines, I think Drazzil is saying that a cheap currency will lead to lots more tourism and new manufacturing industries.

But I don't see that happening.

I see breakdown in public services and infrastructure, which would make tourism and manufacturing less appealing. And the cheap currency will just lead to high inflation with the Euro or USD being preferred.

The only way that the New Drachma would work the way Draz envisions is if they announce it far in advance and everyone immediately speculatively invests in manufacturing and tourism before it is rolled out. Which no one is going to do. They'll wait and see and by the time they do, Greece will be in the throes of hyperinflation.
The next Zimbabwe, sweet!
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jun 30, 2015 3:37 pm

I smell an entrepreneurial opportunity for Drazzil's Greek warehouse startup.

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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by Grifman » Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:14 pm

Interesting and sad article about the pension situation in Greece:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... t-eurozone

The situation is unsustainable - 16% of the country's GDP is pension expense, 45% of pensioners receive less than the poverty level, 20% of the country is over 65 years old, and the youth unemployment rate is 50%, so how can they afford to sustain their older population?

I've been all for the EU being hard on the Greeks but the more I read about the economic situation, the more I think the continued course is going to lead to a humanitarian disaster. Greece just simply cannot sustain it's debt load, period. The past is the past, and nothing can be done about that. They need a massive write off but with a real program to restructure the Greek economy, getting rid of red tape, preferences, tax evasion, etc. The current program just isn't sustainable.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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pr0ner
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by pr0ner » Tue Jun 30, 2015 11:19 pm

Greece defaulted on a $1.2 billion payment to the IMF.

And so it begins.
Hodor.

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em2nought
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Re: European Debt Crisis - World Depression in the Making?

Post by em2nought » Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:37 am

Maybe Greece should switch over to bitcoins. :mrgreen:

Oh hell, they are I was just joking http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/29/technol ... e-bitcoin/ LMAO

That Trojan Horse on the trailer is great by the way! LOL
Remember, remember this 6th of November that a little white lie to your significant other about whom you voted for is perfectly acceptable. ;)

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