Syria - civil war incoming?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:08 am

Thanks for the reminder even though I don't agree with the premise - we would have eventually won without Russia but I was talking about naval capability. I admittedly slipped in a dig about total capability at the end which certainly could be confusing.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:32 pm

malchior wrote:Thanks for the reminder even though I don't agree with the premise - we would have eventually won without Russia but I was talking about naval capability. I admittedly slipped in a dig about total capability at the end which certainly could be confusing.

I think you have it backwards. Russia may have eventually won without the USA. The USA could not have won without Russia if for no other reason than they were in it before we were.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 06, 2016 11:08 am

Carrier stronk!

The second crash of a Russian warplane off the coast of Syria in less than a month intensified scrutiny Monday of a critical weakness in Moscow’s show of naval force in the Mediterranean and the 1,000-foot hulk leading it.
...
“The Admiral Kuznetsov was not designed for such tasks,” Alexander Golts, a military writer for the independent Moscow-based news journal New Times , said in an interview. “It’s a very old ship with very old technologies. It is not prepared for intensive flights.”

Golts spoke after Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Monday that an Su-33 Flanker returning from a combat mission plunged into the Mediterranean as it tried to land on the Kuznetsov. The accident occurred when an arresting cable on the aircraft carrier snapped during the landing, the ministry said in a statement. The pilot ejected and was saved by a search-and-rescue team, the statement added. He was not injured.

Last month, a Russian MiG-29K fighter jet crashed while attempting an emergency landing on the aircraft carrier shortly after takeoff.
...
“This carrier was never designed for projecting power on shore,” said Pavel K. Baev, who studies Russian military reform at the Peace Research Institute Oslo. “The fact of the military matter is that this deployment adds nothing, just absolutely nothing to the capabilities” that Russia has on the ground in Syria.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:41 pm

Aleppo finally falls.

A deal has been agreed for Syrian rebel fighters to leave enclaves they still hold in eastern Aleppo, Russia's ambassador to the UN has said.

It is not clear whether the deal applies to civilians, thousands of whom are trapped in the besieged areas.

The rebels are on the brink of defeat in the city after a major government offensive backed by Russian air power.

Word of the deal came as the UN reported summary killings by pro-government forces.

The UN's human rights office said it had reliable evidence that in four areas 82 civilians were killed, adding that many more may have died.

What are the odds that Trump tweets a brag that he was right about Aleppo, when he declared it had fallen back in the last debate? I've got 12 quatloos that say he goes for it.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 3:46 pm

Where? </GaryJohnson>

On a side note, this is a bad end to a worse situation. The repercussions of Assad and Russian victories here will resonate.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:04 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh7jOP0RBqI

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:38 pm

LordMortis wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wh7jOP0RBqI

Jesus. It's like a phone call from the collapse of civilization.

This is what it looks like when authoritarian regimes embrace indiscriminate force.

The Syrian army said it controlled 98% of eastern Aleppo, where residents said they would face death if they stayed to face bombardment by artillery shells and fighter jets or torture and disappearance if they surrendered.

“Aleppo is being destroyed and burned completely,” said Mohammad Abu Rajab, a doctor in the besieged areas of the city, in a voice message. “This is a final distress call to the world. Save the lives of these children and women and old men. Save them. Nobody is left. You might not hear our voice after this. It is the last call, the last call to every free person in this world. Save the city of Aleppo.”

A local journalist whose organisation documented civilian deaths in the city said he feared imminent arrest as the regime closed in.

“We are terrified of the invasion,” he said. “There are only five neighbourhoods left and the regime is thinking of invading what’s left of the city and arresting all of us. May God grant us that we live longer so we can meet one day.”

A nurse whose civilian father and brother were killed by artillery shells within the space of a few hours said: “I cannot leave because I’m medical staff which means a terrorist in the eyes of the regime.

“I cannot forgive. It is better that God takes my life than to live in humiliation under those who murdered most of my family and my neighbours, and destroyed my country and street and robbed my home.”

“Let us be clear, the regime is insistent on committing a massacre in order to achieve a historic victory against its own people with Russian and Iranian aid,” said Bassam Mustafa, a member of the political office of the Noureddine al-Zenki militia group.

“Therefore, they will not accept any [offer of] safe passage. We challenge them for the thousandth time to discuss anything that is for the good of the civilians that they have been bombing with barrel bombs and chlorine.”

But for the remaining residents in the rebel-held districts of east Aleppo, there are few choices left. “Doomsday, all of us are waiting, dying now in the last neighbourhood,” said Yasser, an activist in the besieged districts.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:47 am

The 'final messages' from people in eastern Aleppo

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Dec 15, 2016 2:29 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-a ... po-2016-12

I don't really remember fearing the Iron Curtain in the 70s. I guess I was too young. Children of the 70s were blessed generation, coming to self realization post Viet Nam but that later half of this year makes it feel like something is closer to giving every single day.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Sun Dec 18, 2016 12:57 am

Not much of a Syrian army really left, not withstanding Aleppo:

https://warisboring.com/pro-regime-forc ... .6it1a5irl

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Sun Dec 18, 2016 11:54 am

Just saw Trump talking about creating "safe zones" for civilians. "Good for him", I thought...until he immediately followed it up with "and we'll make Syria pay for them!" (and the crowd went wild).

Christ, what an asshole.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Sun Dec 18, 2016 1:21 pm

Skinypupy wrote:Just saw Trump talking about creating "safe zones" for civilians. "Good for him", I thought...until he immediately followed it up with "and we'll make Syria pay for them!" (and the crowd went wild).

Christ, what an asshole.

Yeah, like no one is trying to create safe zones currently. He is so fucking stupid.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:08 am

Skinypupy wrote:Just saw Trump talking about creating "safe zones" for civilians. "Good for him", I thought...until he immediately followed it up with "and we'll make Syria pay for them!" (and the crowd went wild).

Christ, what an asshole.

Asshole or idiot? I'm not sure, probably a lot of both.

That said, creating safe zones isn't going to go over well with his bud Putin.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:43 am

Grifman wrote:
Skinypupy wrote:Just saw Trump talking about creating "safe zones" for civilians. "Good for him", I thought...until he immediately followed it up with "and we'll make Syria pay for them!" (and the crowd went wild).

Christ, what an asshole.

Asshole or idiot? I'm not sure, probably a lot of both.

That said, creating safe zones isn't going to go over well with his bud Putin.

Puts a whole new spin on "trigger warnings" though.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:21 pm

Putin will make it safe with Russian troops.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Sun Dec 25, 2016 5:49 pm

Russian military transport, en route to Syria, goes down in the Black Sea shortly after departing Sochi.

All 92 people on board a Russian military aircraft are feared dead after it crashed into the Black Sea.

The plane disappeared from radar two minutes after taking off from Sochi at 05:25 (02:25 GMT), heading for Latakia in Syria, the defence ministry said.

Debris and 11 bodies have been found, with no reports of survivors.

The Tu-154 was carrying soldiers, reporters and 64 members of the famed Alexandrov military music ensemble who were to perform for Russian troops.

More than 100 divers are involved in a round-the-clock search operation at the site of the crash, Russia's defence ministry says.

Russia's transport minister says investigators are looking into an "entire spectrum'' of possible reasons the crash occurred, including the possibility of a terror attack.

Earlier, a Russian official had downplayed any suggestion of a terror attack.

President Vladimir Putin has said Monday will be a day of national mourning.

The flight had originated in Moscow and landed at Adler airport in Sochi for refuelling.

The defence ministry said in a statement: "Fragments of the Tu-154 plane of the Russian defence ministry were found 1.5km (one mile) from the Black Sea coast of the city of Sochi at a depth of 50 to 70m (165-230ft)."

Ministry spokesman Maj-Gen Igor Konashenkov said: "No survivors have been spotted."

All things being equal, if I were a betting man I wouldn't put any money on this being a simple accident.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:23 pm

U.S. troops carry out ground raid against ISIS in Syria

U.S. Special Operations troops carried out a ground operation in eastern Syria aimed at capturing an Islamic State militant, U.S. officials said Monday.

The raid took place Sunday near a small town along the Euphrates River valley, in the vicinity of the city of Deir al-Zour and deep in the heart of Islamic State territory, according to the officials and Syrian activist groups.

The troops, who landed on helicopters, spent about 90 minutes in the area, then left carrying Islamic State captives and bodies, according to witnesses quoted by the website Deir al-Zour 24, which monitors Islamic State activity in that province.

According to U.S. defense officials in Washington, the U.S. forces intercepted a vehicle carrying an Islamic State militant whom the U.S. military hoped to capture and interrogate. One official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an operation whose details have not been publicly announced, said that a firefight broke out, and the suspect, along with another person in the car, was killed. No Americans were injured.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:11 pm

Amnesty International: Thousands of Civilians Murdered at Syrian Government Prison.

A new report by the human rights group alleges that mass hangings took place every week at Saydnaya prison between September 2011 and December 2015.

Amnesty says the alleged executions were authorised at the highest levels of the Syrian government.

On the basis of evidence of the testimony of its witnesses, Amnesty estimates that between 5,000 and 13,000 people were executed at Saydnaya over five years.

Remember this when Putin and Trump declare victory in Syria and present Assad as a champion of order against terrorism.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Mon Feb 06, 2017 10:18 pm

Too bad Trump has already conditioned a large portion of the country to disregard any news that doesn't come straight from their master's lips.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Wed Mar 08, 2017 7:25 pm

Marines have arrived in Syria to fire artillery in the fight for Raqqa

Marines from an amphibious task force have left their ships in the Middle East and deployed to Syria, establishing an outpost from which they can fire artillery guns in support of the fight to take back the city of Raqqa from the Islamic State, defense officials said.

The deployment marks a new escalation in the U.S. war in Syria, and puts more conventional U.S. troops in the battle. Several hundred Special Operations troops have advised local forces there for months, but the Pentagon has mostly shied away from using conventional forces in Syria. The new mission comes as the Trump administration weighs a plan to take back Raqqa, the so-called capital of the Islamic State, that also includes more Special Operations troops and attack helicopters.

The force is part of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which left San Diego on Navy ships in October. The Marines on the ground include part of an artillery battery that can fire powerful 155-millimeter shells from M777 Howitzers, two officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the deployment.

The expeditionary unit’s ground force, Battalion Landing Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marines, will man the guns and deliver fire support for U.S.-backed local forces who are preparing an assault on the city. Additional infantrymen from the unit will provide security while resupplies will be handled by part of the expeditionary force’s combat logistics element. For this deployment, the Marines were flown from Dijibouti to Kuwait and then into Syria, said another defense official with direct knowledge of the operation.

The official added that the Marines movement into Syria was not the byproduct of President Donald Trump’s request of a new plan to take on the Islamic State and that it had “been in the works for sometime.”

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Mar 09, 2017 6:58 pm

The top U.S. commander in the Middle East signaled Thursday that there will be a larger and longer American military presence in Syria to accelerate the fight against the Islamic State group and quell friction within the complicated mix of warring factions there.

Gen. Joseph Votel, head of U.S. Central Command, told senators Thursday that he will need more conventional U.S. forces to insure stability once the fight to defeat Islamic State militants in their self-declared capital of Raqqa is over. The U.S. military, he said, can't just leave once the fight is over because the Syrians will need help keeping IS out and ensuring the peaceful transition to local control.

Votel's testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee comes as a couple hundred Marines moved into Syria in recent days to bring in large artillery guns for the Raqqa fight, and another couple hundred Army Rangers went into northern Syria to tamp down skirmishes between Turkish and Syrian forces near the border.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:09 pm

Trump is playing catch-up with Putin.

The United States said Friday that an airstrike targeted al-Qaeda militants in Syria, but residents charged that the powerful attack killed scores of civilians in a nearby mosque.

A Pentagon spokesman, Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, said the United States believes that the strike late Thursday killed “dozens” of members of the terrorist group. Separately, a U.S. official insisted the raid was based on verified human intelligence, targeting al-Qaeda groups gathered to discuss future operations.

But local activists and a monitoring group said the airstrike hit a mosque in the western Aleppo countryside during a religious gathering, killing at least 46 people and trapping more under the rubble.

Reached by phone, residents in the town of Jinah described a series of powerful blasts that shook the ground and sent civilians fleeing from the site, many of them dazed and bleeding.

The United States has struck dozens of locations in northwestern Syria, where an al-Qaeda-linked alliance of rebel groups known as Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is now the ascendent force. The area is also home to an assortment of other rebel groups, as well as hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Thursday’s attack involved two Reaper drones, which fired four Hellfire missiles and dropped at least one 500-pound GPS-guided bomb, the U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.

Three residents told The Washington Post that at least 200 people had gathered in the mosque and a nearby building for religious teaching sessions at the time of the U.S. attack.

“The mosque in al-Jinah was destroyed. Bodies filled the space” said Mohamed al-Shaghal, a journalist who arrived at the scene shortly after the attack.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring network, described a “massacre” and said the dead were mostly civilians. Photographs from the area showed rescue workers pulling mangled bodies from a mound of rubble.

Aerial imagery appeared to confirm that much of the northern section of Jinah’s mosque was destroyed, although it was unclear whether the strike was a direct one.

The U.S. official said the attack included a follow-up airstrike. Mohamed Shakourdi, a local activist, said it came as people streamed out of the mosque. “They were running as a fourth rocket hit,” he said.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 7:48 pm

Can't have a forever war without continually creating new enemies.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:00 pm

I'm just depressed because I know what a "Should we bomb mosques?" poll would reveal.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:26 am

Syria conflict: 'Chemical attack' in Idlib kills 58

At least 58 people have been killed and dozens wounded in a suspected chemical attack on a rebel-held town in north-western Syria, a monitoring group says.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that strikes on Khan Sheikhoun by Syrian government or Russian jets had caused many people to choke.

Later, aircraft fired rockets at local clinics treating survivors, medics and activists said.

The Syrian government has repeatedly denied using chemical weapons.

If confirmed, it would be one of the deadliest chemical attacks in Syria since the civil war began six years ago.

The warplanes are reported to have attacked Khan Sheikhoun, about 50km (30 miles) south of the city of Idlib, early on Tuesday, when many people were asleep.

Mohammed Rasoul, who is in charge of a charity ambulance service in Idlib, told BBC Arabic that he heard of the air strikes at about 06:45 (03:45 GMT) and that his medics found people choking in the street when they arrived 20 minutes later.

"The situation over there is very bad, and most of those who are suffering are children," he said.

The Syrian Observatory quoted medics as saying that they had been treating people with symptoms including fainting, vomiting and foaming at the mouth.

An AFP news agency journalist saw a young girl, a woman and two elderly people dead at a hospital, all with foam still visible around their mouths.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:16 pm

Spicer:

"Today's chemical attack in Syria against innocent people including women and children is reprehensible and cannot be ignored by the civilized world," Spicer said. "These heinous actions by the Bashar al-Assad regime are a consequence of the past administration's weakness and irresolution."

Trump administration:

Despite the attack, the Trump administration has said that it is up to the people of Syria to pick a leader and that their priority is not getting Assad out of office.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on a trip to Turkey that the "longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."

Reminds me of this.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:25 pm

Trump has to run that line though. Not doing so may invite Canada to bomb the hell out of the White House the next time we kill a bunch of innocent people on his orders.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:59 pm

And let's not forget the outrage on the right (myself included) when Obama's response to chemical weapon use came too slowly and too weakly. Now Trump is doing even less, and everyone is OK with that (except for McCain, apparently).

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:36 am

OMG! This video is horrible.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/04 ... ected.html

If the US stands for anything is that we protect people from government or organization who do this to civilians.

Its just horrible!!

Can everyone people write the congressman about this?

http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:48 am

hepcat wrote:
Despite the attack, the Trump administration has said that it is up to the people of Syria to pick a leader and that their priority is not getting Assad out of office.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on a trip to Turkey that the "longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."

Given that Assad's forces with Russian help have all but won the civil war, this statement amounted to a declaration that the U.S. no longer opposes his regime.

It was just a few days later that Assad resumed chemical attacks, but, sure, blame Obama.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:24 am

And that there will be no consequences for this type of behavior.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:27 am

YellowKing wrote:And let's not forget the outrage on the right (myself included) when Obama's response to chemical weapon use came too slowly and too weakly. Now Trump is doing even less, and everyone is OK with that (except for McCain, apparently).

We have reached that point where I find myself agreeing with McCain and Lindsey Graham more often than not. Crazy.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:25 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:OMG! This video is horrible.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/04 ... ected.html

If the US stands for anything is that we protect people from government or organization who do this to civilians.

Its just horrible!!

Can everyone people write the congressman about this?

http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

No doubt it's absolutely horrible, but why is it worthy of more condemnation than the air strike in Mosul last month that killed more than 100? Is it because of the involvement of chemical weapons. There have been plenty of tragic events coming out of Syria in the past. Why is this one the last straw?

edit: Not directed at you specifically, Scoop. The whole world is reacting to this one.

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:31 pm

Blackhawk wrote:And that there will be no consequences for this type of behavior.

Trump admitted this attack crossed a red line for him in a press conference this morning, right after blaming Obama for doing nothing after Syria crossed his red line. I wonder if Trump realizes he now needs to do something or risk being exactly what he criticized Obama for.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:38 pm

If Trump wants to be President, he can't hide behind blaming Obama for what he does or doesn't do. Put on your big boy pants and take responsibility.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:41 pm

Zarathud wrote:If Trump wants to be President, he can't hide behind blaming Obama for what he does or doesn't do. Put on your big boy pants and take responsibility.

But even Putin blames Obama -- for encouraging the rebels to use chemical weapons in order to frame the peace-loving Assad and his Russian allies.

Russia said former U.S. President Barack Obama's threat of military action if a "red line" was crossed and chemical weapons were used in Syria had provoked such attacks.

"That decision served as a starting point for future provocations by terrorists and extremist structures with the use of chemical weapons, they sought to discredit the official Damascus regime and to create a pretext for the use of military force against a sovereign state," Deputy Russian U.N. Ambassador Vladimir Safronkov told the U.N. Security Council.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:43 pm

Holman wrote:
hepcat wrote:
Despite the attack, the Trump administration has said that it is up to the people of Syria to pick a leader and that their priority is not getting Assad out of office.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on a trip to Turkey that the "longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people."
Given that Assad's forces with Russian help have all but won the civil war, this statement amounted to a declaration that the U.S. no longer opposes his regime.

It was just a few days later that Assad resumed chemical attacks, but, sure, blame Obama.

Yeah, we basically said "Have at it!" Kuwait was invaded for less.

Alefroth wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:OMG! This video is horrible.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/04 ... ected.html

If the US stands for anything is that we protect people from government or organization who do this to civilians.

Its just horrible!!

Can everyone people write the congressman about this?

http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/
No doubt it's absolutely horrible, but why is it worthy of more condemnation than the air strike in Mosul last month that killed more than 100? Is it because of the involvement of chemical weapons. There have been plenty of tragic events coming out of Syria in the past. Why is this one the last straw?

edit: Not directed at you specifically, Scoop. The whole world is reacting to this one.

Why is a suicide bomber blowing up 5 kids on a bus worse than a DUI crash killing 5 kids in a van? Reactions to horrific loss of life and suffering aren't always based in pure logic and accounting.

Also consider that chemical weapons are banned by international agreement but conventional weapons are not.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:18 pm

While normally, the question depends on both the number of civilians hurt and the context - were the civilians intentionally targeted? Were steps taken to minimize civilian casualties? etc.

However, Chemical Weapons (and other WMDs) are taboo both because they are inherently indiscriminate and because they have been seen as particularly cruel as a way to die.

There's also the potential for a large scale attack, although, IIUC, much less so than with Biological or Nuclear weapons. Still, that fear is there, and adds to why it's taboo.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:57 pm

Chemical weapons were the first nukes: a weapon so awful that the possessors mutually abjured them even while engaged in full-scale conventional war. That even the Nazis and Soviets refused to employ gas warfare in the East tells you how serious this was.

Assad would never use gas against a rival national power; the price would be too high. His use of gas against civilians and rebels reminds us that the only theater that saw chemical weapons in WW2 was domestic, in Hitler's camps and death factories.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 8:23 pm

Alefroth wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:OMG! This video is horrible.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/04 ... ected.html

If the US stands for anything is that we protect people from government or organization who do this to civilians.

Its just horrible!!

Can everyone people write the congressman about this?

http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/
No doubt it's absolutely horrible, but why is it worthy of more condemnation than the air strike in Mosul last month that killed more than 100? Is it because of the involvement of chemical weapons. There have been plenty of tragic events coming out of Syria in the past. Why is this one the last straw?

edit: Not directed at you specifically, Scoop. The whole world is reacting to this one.

No prob, Alefroth. I think the video is hideous. Chemical gas is outlawed and it crossed a line the first time and now again. The last time there was a big show of removing their chemical weapons. Now, not a week after the US says we aren't after regime change they do it again. Thats a big FU to the civilized world.