Syria - civil war incoming?

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

The winds shift, ever so slightly?

Syria conflict: Russia softens support for Assad
Russia says it is not crucial for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to remain in power, backing away from previous support, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry has said.

When asked if saving the Syrian leader was a matter of principle for Russia, Maria Zakharova said: "Absolutely not, we never said that."

"We are not saying that Assad should leave or stay," she added.

Russia had previously said it objected to Mr Assad's government being toppled.

Ms Zakharova said on the Ekho Moskvy radio station that whether Mr Assad stayed or stepped down was not critical for Russia, but that it was up to the Syrian people to decide his fate.

Russia is seen as one of Mr Assad's strongest backers and has previously insisted that Mr Assad must be part of any transition government.

In September, Russia started carrying out air strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria at Syria's request, after it suffered a string of defeats to both rebel forces and IS.

Hosting a delegation of Russian parliamentarians in Damascus last month, Mr Assad expressed his gratitude for Moscow's support and said eliminating "terrorist" groups would resolve Syria's problems.

The US has indicated it could only tolerate President Assad during a short transition period, after which he should step down.

Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Moscow was aiming to host a round of talks between Syrian government officials and members of the country's opposition in Moscow next week.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41314
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by El Guapo »

Well, it depends. For one, it is true that Russia has never said that Assad has to or should necessarily stay. The line is, "get to a negotiated solution that ends the civil war and allows for the Syrian people to choose" or something like that. But the background reality is that if the civil war ends (rebels put down their guns) and Assad doesn't simultaneously step down, then Assad is almost certainly staying, because he's not going to allow a genuinely free and fair election that would allow the Syrians to vote him out. So Russia can say "we're not committed to Assad, we're committed to peace and elections and sunshine and rainbows", while pursuing a policy designed to effectively allow him to remain in power.

It's also the case that while Russia would like Assad to stay, it's not the end of the world for them if he falls, especially if he were to be replaced by another military-minded dictator. It's more of a strong preference than a core interest.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Kraken
Posts: 43779
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: The Hub of the Universe
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote: It's also the case that while Russia would like Assad to stay, it's not the end of the world for them if he falls, especially if he were to be replaced by another military-minded dictator. It's more of a strong preference than a core interest.
International relations between despots are personal...but one strongman is as good as another if they're both willing clients. So you're probably right about that.

There are only three realistic outcomes for Syria, and they're all bad from our POV: ISIS can take control (they want Damascus for their capital); al Qaeda can take control through its Nusra Front; or Assad's Alawites can remain in control with or without Assad at the helm, and with the blessings of Russia and Iran. The hope that some Western-aligned moderate opposition group can come out on top is a fantasy.

US policy should recognize that Assad is the least-bad option.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41314
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote:
El Guapo wrote: It's also the case that while Russia would like Assad to stay, it's not the end of the world for them if he falls, especially if he were to be replaced by another military-minded dictator. It's more of a strong preference than a core interest.
International relations between despots are personal...but one strongman is as good as another if they're both willing clients. So you're probably right about that.

There are only three realistic outcomes for Syria, and they're all bad from our POV: ISIS can take control (they want Damascus for their capital); al Qaeda can take control through its Nusra Front; or Assad's Alawites can remain in control with or without Assad at the helm, and with the blessings of Russia and Iran. The hope that some Western-aligned moderate opposition group can come out on top is a fantasy.

US policy should recognize that Assad is the least-bad option.
I will say that Assad is looking a lot more attractive than he was five years ago. Though the best plausible outcome for the U.S. is that Assad is replaced by an Al-Sisi-like strongman willing to align himself more with the U.S. (whereas Assad was pretty openly hostile) in exchange for us looking the other way as to his domestic conduct. That replacement could be from among the rebel groups, or it could be an Assad lieutenant.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Someone's going to be getting some remedial opsec training. I'd have thought the lessons would have been learned after the same thing happened in east Ukraine.

Russian soldiers geolocated by photos in multiple Syria locations, bloggers say
Three serving or former Russian soldiers have been geolocated by photographs in Syria, including locations near Hama, Aleppo and Homs, Russian bloggers said on Sunday, suggesting the Kremlin's operation stretches well beyond its air campaign.

Russia first launched air strikes to support President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's four-year civil war on Sept. 30 but has repeatedly said it has no intention of mounting a ground operation.

It has instead said it will limit its help to military trainers, advisers and deliveries of military equipment.

U.S. security officials and independent experts told Reuters last week that Moscow had increased its forces in Syria to 4,000 personnel from an estimated 2,000. A U.S. defense official said multiple rocket-launcher crews and long-range artillery batteries were deployed outside four bases the Russians were using.

Sunday's report by Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a group of Russian investigative bloggers, said that photos on social media had been used to geolocate three Russian serving or former soldiers in Syria.

"Although we still don't have indisputable evidence of Russian servicemen taking a direct part in the fighting on the ground in Syria, we believe the situation observed contradicts the claims of Russian officials that Russian troops are not taking part and are not planning to take part in ground operations,” CIT said.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
Stefan Stirzaker
Posts: 1136
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2004 6:12 pm
Location: Australia

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Stefan Stirzaker »

Think this is best fit. Turkey shoots down russian mig over turkey/syria. Should be interesting to see what happens now in Syria

Added link http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34907983
User avatar
Rip
Posts: 26891
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Cajun Country!
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Rip »

When you are in someone's airspace and you ignore warnings expect to be shot down.
A Turkish military statement said the plane entered Turkish airspace over the town of Yayladagi, in Hatay province. It said the plane was warned 10 times within the space of 5 minutes.
Air superiority 101.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55361
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I posted in the ISIS thread, but the Turkmen in Syria claimed to have shot two Russian pilots coming down in parachutes. More reliable reports have one dead and the other captured.

No doubt Russia will now double down and take out as much opposition to Assad as quickly as possible to improve his position at the bargaining table.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
Holman
Posts: 28980
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 8:00 pm
Location: Between the Schuylkill and the Wissahickon

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Holman »

It seems really unlikely that a Russian jet wandered off course and then failed to heed warnings due to error or miscommunication. (FWIW, this was an Su-24, a ground-attack plane and thus designed to know where it and its targets are located. Navigation should not have been a problem.)

This was pretty clearly Russia intentionally pushing Turkey's (and NATO's) buttons, just as they have done several times already in this crisis. The real question is why Turkish commanders gave authorization to shoot this time.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
User avatar
El Guapo
Posts: 41314
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 4:01 pm
Location: Boston

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote:It seems really unlikely that a Russian jet wandered off course and then failed to heed warnings due to error or miscommunication. (FWIW, this was an Su-24, a ground-attack plane and thus designed to know where it and its targets are located. Navigation should not have been a problem.)

This was pretty clearly Russia intentionally pushing Turkey's (and NATO's) buttons, just as they have done several times already in this crisis. The real question is why Turkish commanders gave authorization to shoot this time.
Turkmen militias are based (unsurprisingly) close to Turkey, and are mostly anti-Assad (and anti-ISIS). Russia has been bombing them because they're anti-Assad, but of course Turkey is anti-Assad (and pro-Turkmen).

The most intuitive explanations are: (1) The Russian jet, operating close to the Turkish border, crossed the border accidentally and figured that Turkey didn't have the stones to shoot him down; and/or (2) Turkey was fed up with Russia bombing Turkmen militias and shot down a Russian jet (either close to or across the Turkish border) to try to get them to stop.
Black Lives Matter.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Judging by the radar track released by Turkey, it appears that the Russian pilot cut one too many corners (or, more literally, failed to cut enough corners). Unless it comes to light that the Turks faked the tracking data, it looks like a fair cop to me.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Oops, somebody seems to have hit a Syrian Army camp with an air strike. I have no opinion as to whether it is more likely to be a western Kunduz-style snafu or an example of Russia's pinpoint strike capability, but I'm pretty sure neither would deliberately target the Syrian Army. We're still certain that IS doesn't have an air force, right?

Washington denies U.S.-led coalition hit Syria army camp
Syria's government said a U.S.-led military coalition carried out a deadly air strike on a Syrian army camp, but coalition officials said the report was false. Syria said four coalition jets killed three of its soldiers and wounded 13 in the eastern province of Deir al-Zor on Sunday evening, calling it an act of aggression, the first time Damascus has made such an accusation.

Any such strike by U.S.-led coalition planes, which have focused their fire on Islamic State targets, would further complicate the increasingly regional conflict. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group earlier reported that jets likely to be from the coalition hit part of the Saeqa military camp near the town of Ayyash in Deir al-Zor province, killing four Syrian army personnel. But a U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the United States is certain that Russia was responsible for the deadly strike on the Syrian army camp. The official flatly dismissed claims that U.S.-led coalition jets were responsible. Russia, a key ally of Syria, is waging its own air campaign in support of President Bashar al-Assad, and has also been striking in Deir al-Zor. A second U.S. military official said indications pointed to a strike carried out by a Russian TU-22 bomber.

Brett McGurk, U.S. President Barack Obama's envoy to the coalition, also denied claims of coalition responsibility, saying on Twitter: "Reports of coalition involvement are false." Colonel Steve Warren, a Baghdad-based spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition, said the alliance had conducted four strikes in the Deir al-Zor province on Sunday, all against oil well heads. "Our strikes were approximately 55 kilometers (35 miles) southeast of Ayyash. We did not strike any vehicles or personnel targets. We have no indication any Syrian soldiers were near our strikes," he said.

A U.S. defense official, who declined to be named, dismissed the idea that the coalition would target the Syrian military. "We are not at war with the Assad regime and have no reason to target the Syrian Army," the official said. "We are aware that Russia conducted long-range bomber strikes into Syria (on Sunday)." Another U.S. defense official said Deir al-Zor was among the locations Russia had targeted on Sunday. Russian officials were not immediately available for comment.

The U.S.-led coalition first launched air strikes against Islamic State in Syria in September 2014, after beginning aerial operations against the group in neighboring Iraq the previous month. Its strikes have regularly targeted Deir al-Zor province in eastern Syria, most of which is held by Islamic State, including oilfields that are a source of income for the militant group. The province links Islamic State's de facto capital in Raqqa with territory controlled by the group in Iraq.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Moliere
Posts: 12361
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Moliere »

Don't worry, the U.S. already brought peace to Syria and passed a U.N. resolution or something
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Image.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday he was instructing his armed forces to start pulling out of Syria, over five months after he ordered the launch of a military operation that shored up his ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Putin, at a meeting in the Kremlin with his defense and foreign ministers, said Russian military forces in Syria had largely fulfilled their objectives and ordered an intensification of Russia's diplomatic efforts to broker a peace deal in the country. But the Russian leader signaled Moscow would keep a military presence: he did not give a deadline for the completion of the withdrawal and said Russian forces would stay on at the port of Tartous and at the Hmeymim airbase in Syria's Latakia province. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had telephoned Assad to inform him of the Russian decision. The move was announced on the day United Nations-brokered talks between the warring sides in Syria resumed in Geneva.

"The effective work of our military created the conditions for the start of the peace process," Putin said. "I believe that the task put before the defense ministry and Russian armed forces has, on the whole, been fulfilled. With the participation of the Russian military... the Syrian armed forces and patriotic Syrian forces have been able to achieve a fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism and have taken the initiative in almost all respects," Putin said. "I am therefore ordering the defense minister, from tomorrow, to start the withdrawal of the main part of our military contingent from the Syrian Arab Republic."
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Defiant
Posts: 21045
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Tongue in cheek

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Defiant »

In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA

Wasn't this an episode of DS9?

(To be fair, it doesn't look like they didn't want the two militias to fight each other, whereas Quark tried to make sure they did)
User avatar
Moliere
Posts: 12361
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Moliere »

Defiant wrote:In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA

Wasn't this an episode of DS9?

(To be fair, it doesn't look like they didn't want the two militias to fight each other, whereas Quark tried to make sure they did)
It's a good way to increase American jobs. :ninja:
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82286
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Isgrimnur »

WaPo
Scrambling to resuscitate a nearly dead truce in Syria, the Obama administration has again been forced to turn to Russia for help, with little hope for the desired U.S. outcome.
...
“We are talking directly to the Russians, even now,” Kerry said on his arrival in Geneva as he began talks with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. “The hope is we can make some progress, but the UN Security Council Resolution calls for a full country, countrywide, cessation and also for all of the country to be accessible to humanitarian assistance. Obviously that hasn’t happened and isn’t happening.”

“These are critical hours. We look for Russia’s cooperation. We obviously look for the regime to listen to Russia and to respond to the international communities’ powerful statement to the UN Security Council.”

Kerry spoke at length on Friday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to that end, and had been hoping to meet with Lavrov soon, according to U.S. officials.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Top US commander makes secret visit to northern Syria
The top US commander for the Middle East secretly visited Syria on Saturday, officials said. General Joseph Votel, head of US Central Command, spent about 11 hours in northern Syria. He met US military advisers and the leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), made up of Kurdish and Arab rebel forces. The US wants local forces to defeat the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which holds territory in the country. Speaking after the visit, Gen Votel said training local forces to fight IS was the right approach. "I left with increased confidence in their capabilities and our ability to support them. I think that model is working and working well," he said. The SDF comprises about 25,000 Kurdish fighters and about 5,000 Arab fighters. The US is hoping to increase the number of Arabs in the force. Arab commanders who spoke to journalists during the visit said their forces needed more help. SDF Deputy Commander Qarhaman Hasan said he wanted armoured vehicles, machine guns, rocket launchers and mortars. The SDF currently had to rely on smuggling to get weapons, he said. "You can't run an army on smuggling," he added. Tribal leaders also called on the US to do more, both militarily and with humanitarian aid. The US has about 200 military advisers in Syria, where 270,000 people have died in five years of civil war.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82286
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Isgrimnur »

May 30
The chief Syrian opposition negotiator in Geneva resigned, citing both the international community’s failure to make concrete progress toward ending the country’s conflict and continuing hostilities by the regime.

Mohammad Alloush’s departure could be a particularly troubling development for the fractured opposition, which has faced difficulties nominating consensus leaders wielding both political clout with the international community and influence among rebels on the ground.

The High Negotiations Committee, the opposition’s representative body in Geneva, will meet in Riyadh in 10 days to form a delegation for coming peace talks and select his successor, a spokeswoman said.
June 7
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signaled Tuesday that his government intends to escalate military efforts to crush the five-year-old uprising against his rule, saying the bloodshed will not end until he has regained control over all areas of Syria lost to the rebellion.

His tough words came amid indications that Russia is preparing to reengage in the war in support of Assad, about three months after it threw its support behind a U.S.-backed cease-fire and announced it was withdrawing most of its military from Syria.

The violence has already been ticking up, with government and Russian warplanes conducting intense air raids over northern Syria in the past week and rebels launching an offensive to recapture territory south of the city of Aleppo. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia tripled the number of its airstrikes over a four-day period last week, to levels not seen since before the imposition of the cessation of hostilities in late February.

Assad’s comments, made in an address to a newly installed parliament in Damascus, suggested that he and his Russian allies are preparing for a full-scale resumption of the war, with Aleppo as their first target.
...
A peace process launched in Geneva earlier this year has failed, Assad said, blaming the West and its allies. The talks have deadlocked mainly because of disagreements over whether he should remain in power.
...
He singled out Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for blame, saying Erdogan had continued to funnel support to “terrorists” in the Aleppo area. Assad has consistently labeled all the armed opponents to his rule as terrorists.
...
A full-scale return to war would mean an end also to U.S. hopes for a diplomatic settlement through a tentative partnership with Moscow. The effort has yielded some results, diplomats say, including evidence that Moscow has exerted pressure on the Syrian government to comply with the cease-fire at least in some places and has held back from supporting some of the regime’s recent offensives.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

US diplomats press for strikes against Assad
Dozens of US State Department officials have signed an internal memo protesting against US policy in Syria and calling for targeted military strikes against President Bashar al-Assad's government. They argue the current approach is working against the Syrian opposition and helping Mr Assad to stay in power. It was signed by 51 mid-to-high level officials who advise on Syria issues. It is not unusual for internal "dissent cables" to be filed through State Department channels. However, it is rare to have this number of diplomats voice opposition to a White House position. A State Department spokesman acknowledged receipt of the memo but declined to comment on its contents. However, an official familiar with the letter told the BBC that it was sent "because the status quo is not sustainable".
I don't really see how strikes against Assad are viable at this stage without risking an outright conflict with Russia.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19478
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Jaymann »

Texas fails to ban Syrian refugees. Stay classy Texas.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55361
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Max Peck wrote:US diplomats press for strikes against Assad
Dozens of US State Department officials have signed an internal memo protesting against US policy in Syria and calling for targeted military strikes against President Bashar al-Assad's government. They argue the current approach is working against the Syrian opposition and helping Mr Assad to stay in power. It was signed by 51 mid-to-high level officials who advise on Syria issues. It is not unusual for internal "dissent cables" to be filed through State Department channels. However, it is rare to have this number of diplomats voice opposition to a White House position. A State Department spokesman acknowledged receipt of the memo but declined to comment on its contents. However, an official familiar with the letter told the BBC that it was sent "because the status quo is not sustainable".
I don't really see how strikes against Assad are viable at this stage without risking an outright conflict with Russia.
Zero Hedge wrote:As we reported yesterday, over 50 US State Department officials are now calling for "targeted military strikes" directly against Assad's Syrian government as a means to defeat ISIS.

The irony of course is that we've now come full circle. The US created ISIS in hopes of toppling Assad, and now that the ISIS strategy is losing momentum (due in large part to Russia's relentless pounding of the group), the US now wants to just fast forward to the end game, which is to take out Assad directly (using ISIS as a reason of course).

What has also emerged is that Saudi Arabia has now grown impatient with the fact that Assad is still in power, and have started to press the US to provide more sophisticated weapons to the rebels. Saudi foreign minister Adel al Jubeir who is visiting the US just confirmed as much yesterday when he said that "Saudi Arabia supports a more aggressive military approach in Syria to get Assad to agree to a political solution."
...
The question is this, will the US fold and pander to its Saudi "friends" who are pushing to have Assad out, or will the fact that toppling Assad will lead to a direct conflict with Russia be enough to have the US stand down.
But hey, we'll be ready, right?
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82286
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Jaymann wrote:Texas fails to ban Syrian refugees. Stay classy Texas.
Ken Paxton, Dan Patrick, and Greg Abbott all embarrass reasonable Texans. Unfortunately, there are plenty of straight party voters for us to do much about it. And what with Perry getting away with his a use of power, they've got clear sailing for anything short of a federal case.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Anonymous Bosch
Posts: 10514
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 6:09 pm
Location: Northern California [originally from the UK]

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Max Peck wrote:US diplomats press for strikes against Assad
Dozens of US State Department officials have signed an internal memo protesting against US policy in Syria and calling for targeted military strikes against President Bashar al-Assad's government. They argue the current approach is working against the Syrian opposition and helping Mr Assad to stay in power. It was signed by 51 mid-to-high level officials who advise on Syria issues. It is not unusual for internal "dissent cables" to be filed through State Department channels. However, it is rare to have this number of diplomats voice opposition to a White House position. A State Department spokesman acknowledged receipt of the memo but declined to comment on its contents. However, an official familiar with the letter told the BBC that it was sent "because the status quo is not sustainable".
I don't really see how strikes against Assad are viable at this stage without risking an outright conflict with Russia.
Zero Hedge wrote:As we reported yesterday, over 50 US State Department officials are now calling for "targeted military strikes" directly against Assad's Syrian government as a means to defeat ISIS.

The irony of course is that we've now come full circle. The US created ISIS in hopes of toppling Assad, and now that the ISIS strategy is losing momentum (due in large part to Russia's relentless pounding of the group), the US now wants to just fast forward to the end game, which is to take out Assad directly (using ISIS as a reason of course).

What has also emerged is that Saudi Arabia has now grown impatient with the fact that Assad is still in power, and have started to press the US to provide more sophisticated weapons to the rebels. Saudi foreign minister Adel al Jubeir who is visiting the US just confirmed as much yesterday when he said that "Saudi Arabia supports a more aggressive military approach in Syria to get Assad to agree to a political solution."
...
The question is this, will the US fold and pander to its Saudi "friends" who are pushing to have Assad out, or will the fact that toppling Assad will lead to a direct conflict with Russia be enough to have the US stand down.
But hey, we'll be ready, right?
In completely unrelated news...

Russian jets strike American-backed forces in Syria, ignoring U.S. warnings:
LATimes.com wrote:Russian warplanes hit Pentagon-backed Syrian fighters with a barrage of airstrikes earlier this week, disregarding several warnings from U.S. commanders in what American military officials called the most provocative act since Moscow’s air campaign in Syria began last year.

The strikes hit a base near the Jordanian border, far from areas where the Russians were previously active, and targeted U.S.-backed forces battling the Islamic State militants.

No U.S. forces were present in the area, but the U.S. military scrambled fighter jets and used an emergency communications channel set up to avoid air accidents to tell Russian officers to end the strikes, according to the officials, who spoke Friday about the incident after requesting anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers left the area at first, but came back for a second strike after the U.S. F/A-18 fighters went to refuel. The second attack killed several Syrian rebels attempting to provide medical support to the survivors of the initial one, officials said.

“It’s an egregious act that must be explained,” a U.S. official said. “The Russian government either doesn’t have control of its own forces or it was a deliberate provocative act. Either way, we’re looking for answers.”

The incident came amid calls within the U.S. government for a tougher approach to the Syrian conflict.
"There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." — P. J. O'Rourke
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51484
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by hepcat »

It's been a long time since any tales of atrocities coming out of the Middle East has been able to shock me. But beheading a child of about 10 years of age?

Yeah, that one hits hard.

The Syrian rebels behind it are trying to claim it was simply a mistake. I can think of no scenario in existence in which beheading a child that young could be viewed as anything but a complete atrocity. If folks are doing such things in the name of freedom in Syria, I'm not sure they're worth it.
He won. Period.
malchior
Posts: 24795
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by malchior »

Yeah - I don't see how you could behead a child of 10 by accident unless his name is Benjamin Buttons. They just got caught being evil. There are no winners when it comes to Syria.
User avatar
PLW
Posts: 3058
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 11:39 am
Location: Clemson

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by PLW »

hepcat wrote:It's been a long time since any tales of atrocities coming out of the Middle East has been able to shock me. But beheading a child of about 10 years of age?

Yeah, that one hits hard.
Me, too. What is wrong with some people?
paulbaxter
Posts: 3179
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:46 pm

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by paulbaxter »

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/syria-least-85 ... ke-1571600

At least we're doing our part (to kill more people).
No sig, must scream, etc.
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51484
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by hepcat »

It's possible to acknowledge a single act of barbarism without having to acknowledge all other violence in the world.
Last edited by hepcat on Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
He won. Period.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82286
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Isgrimnur »

PLW wrote:What is wrong with some people?
People suck.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
paulbaxter
Posts: 3179
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:46 pm

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by paulbaxter »

hepcat wrote:It's possible to acknowledge a single act of barbarism without having to acknowledge all other violence in the world.
I didn't mean my post to be in any way a reference to yours, though I can understand why you may have seen it that way. It was just a shocking news item I saw today about Syria, so I figured this was the appropriate place to put it.

Beheading a child is a horrific and barely comprehensible act, though consistent with other stories I've seen about ISIS. Blowing up 85 people by mistake is also a horrific and barely comprehensible occurrence, though I'm afraid it's also consistent with other stories I see about US military activities.
No sig, must scream, etc.
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51484
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by hepcat »

Ah, okay then. That's a standard forum practice for some folks that never fails to annoy me. But it seems that you weren't actually responding to me, so no harm, no foul.
He won. Period.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

paulbaxter wrote:Beheading a child is a horrific and barely comprehensible act, though consistent with other stories I've seen about ISIS.
For the record, this wasn't done by IS/ISIS/ISIL.
Members of the Nour al-Din al-Zinki Movement are accused of killing him. It said those responsible were handed over to a judicial committee, and denounced the killing as a "violation". The US, which has provided military support to the Nour al-Din al-Zinki Movement in the past, said it was seeking more information on what it described as "an appalling report". "If we can prove that this was indeed what happened and this group was involved... it would give us pause about any assistance or, frankly, any further involvement with this group," state department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Rescuers say toxic gas dropped on Syrian town where Russian helicopter shot down
A Syrian rescue service operating in rebel-held territory said on Tuesday a helicopter dropped containers of toxic gas overnight on a town close to where a Russian military helicopter was shot down hours earlier. The opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC) accused President Bashar al Assad of being behind the attack. Assad has denied previous accusations of using chemical weapons. A spokesman for the Syria Civil Defence said 33 people, mostly women and children, were affected by the gas, which they suspect was chlorine, in Saraqeb, in rebel-held Idlib province. The group, which describes itself as a neutral band of search and rescue volunteers, posted a video on YouTube apparently showing a number of men struggling to breathe and being given oxygen masks by people in civil defense uniforms. "Medium-sized barrels fell containing toxic gasses. The Syrian Civil Defence was not able to determine the type of the gas," said the spokesman. The Syrian government and its Russian allies were not immediately available for comment. The SNC said in a statement: "After shelling, besieging and killing civilians and perpetrating war crimes on them, the Assad regime has resorted once again, and in breach of UN resolutions 2118 and 2235, to using chemical substances and toxic gasses. "The daily reality confirms that all the international agreements and previous security council decisions, be they about chemical weapons or otherwise, are meaningless for the Assad regime." The Civil Defence spokesman said it was the second time Saraqeb had been hit by toxic gas. The group was aware of around nine suspected chlorine gas incidents across Idlib province since the conflict began, he said. Monitors at the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence on all sides in the civil war, said barrel bombs fell on Saraqeb late on Monday, wounding a large number of citizens. Russia's defense ministry said a Russian helicopter was shot down near Saraqeb during the day on Monday, killing all five people on board, in the biggest officially acknowledged loss of life for Russian forces since they started operations in Syria.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

Syria's first responders: 'Most dangerous job in the world'
Rescue workers are targeted with such regularity by government forces that they have come up with a name for the tactic: "double tap" attacks. After an initial strike, government warplanes circle around and hit the target a second time, or lay siege to the area with overwhelming artillery fire. It was in such circumstances that Fadlallah lost a teammate last week. Khaled Omran Harrah had earlier captured international media attention for his dramatic 2014 rescue of a 10-day-old infant trapped in rubble for 16 hours. Harrah was on the job again last week, called along with Fadlallah and five other White Helmet rescuers to the scene of a blast. The men were working to extract a survivor from the rubble when they came under second attack. "They must have seen us coming, and they started striking us with a tank, mortars, and airstrikes," Fadlallah said. The group cowered in a building that could not provide enough cover, and Harrah was killed. Five others, including Fadlallah sustained shrapnel wounds. They were stuck for two hours, and the man they came to rescue died.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
GreenGoo
Posts: 42334
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:46 pm
Location: Ottawa, ON

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by GreenGoo »

Fox news tells me this is the US's fault. Specifically Obama's and Clinton's. I wish I was joking.

Thanks Obama?
User avatar
Sepiche
Posts: 8112
Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2005 12:00 pm
Location: Olathe, KS

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Sepiche »

US scrambles fighters to protect US special forces from Syrian government bombers
American fighter planes have been scrambled to the Syrian city of Hassakeh to protect US special forces on the ground from Syrian government aerial attacks, the US military says.

The Pentagon said the Syrian planes were leaving as its jets arrived.
...
Pentagon spokesman Capt Jeff Davis said that as far as he was aware, Thursday's mission was the first time that coalition aircraft had been scrambled to respond to an incident involving Syrian government aerial bombardment.

The US had no radio contact with the Syrian planes.

Capt Davis told journalists that the US had warned Syria via its communication channel with Russia that it would defend coalition troops.
User avatar
Max Peck
Posts: 13751
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 8:09 pm
Location: Down the Rabbit-Hole

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Max Peck »

US and Russia agree on Syria peace plan
Russia and the US have agreed to a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria from sunset on 12 September after intensive talks in Geneva.

Under the plan, the Syrian government will end combat missions in specified areas held by the opposition.

Russia and the US will establish a joint centre to combat so-called Islamic State and al-Nusra fighters.

The plan follows a day of talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

The plan would need both the regime and opposition "to meet their obligations", Mr Kerry said. The opposition had indicated it was prepared to comply with the plan, he said, provided the Syrian government "shows it is serious".

Mr Lavrov said Russia had informed the Syrian government about the arrangements and the Syrian government was "ready to fulfil them".

"The cessation of hostilities requires access to all besieged and hard-to-reach areas, including Aleppo", Mr Kerry said, so that humanitarian access can be granted to besieged eastern parts of the city.

Seven days after the start of the cessation of hostilities, Mr Kerry added, Russia and the US would establish a "joint implementation group centre" to fight the Islamic State group and the al-Qaeda-allied Nusra fighters.

Mr Lavrov warned that some mistrust remained, and that "there are some people who would like today's arrangement to be undermined".

The United Nations envoy to Syria, Stefan de Mistura, welcomed the agreement and said the UN would exert all efforts to deliver humanitarian aid.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
User avatar
Rip
Posts: 26891
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:34 pm
Location: Cajun Country!
Contact:

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by Rip »

Max Peck wrote:US and Russia agree on Syria peace plan
Russia and the US have agreed to a "cessation of hostilities" in Syria from sunset on 12 September after intensive talks in Geneva.

Under the plan, the Syrian government will end combat missions in specified areas held by the opposition.

Russia and the US will establish a joint centre to combat so-called Islamic State and al-Nusra fighters.

The plan follows a day of talks between US Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

The plan would need both the regime and opposition "to meet their obligations", Mr Kerry said. The opposition had indicated it was prepared to comply with the plan, he said, provided the Syrian government "shows it is serious".

Mr Lavrov said Russia had informed the Syrian government about the arrangements and the Syrian government was "ready to fulfil them".

"The cessation of hostilities requires access to all besieged and hard-to-reach areas, including Aleppo", Mr Kerry said, so that humanitarian access can be granted to besieged eastern parts of the city.

Seven days after the start of the cessation of hostilities, Mr Kerry added, Russia and the US would establish a "joint implementation group centre" to fight the Islamic State group and the al-Qaeda-allied Nusra fighters.

Mr Lavrov warned that some mistrust remained, and that "there are some people who would like today's arrangement to be undermined".

The United Nations envoy to Syria, Stefan de Mistura, welcomed the agreement and said the UN would exert all efforts to deliver humanitarian aid.
No doubt part of the plan to help Trump win......
User avatar
hepcat
Posts: 51484
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:02 pm
Location: Chicago, IL Home of the triple homicide!

Re: Syria - civil war incoming?

Post by hepcat »

Putin's not treating his toadie very well, is he? He should have involved him instead of letting Obama win the day. :twisted:
He won. Period.
Post Reply