Post-Withdrawal Iraq

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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by msduncan »

malchior wrote:
Perhaps they can even snap up this new zone should events favor them...
They probably want a stable buffer at their southern border.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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So much for Obama's "No boots in Iraq".
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by GreenGoo »

dbt1949 wrote:So much for Obama's "No boots in Iraq".
I haven't heard the news yet but everything has been leaning this way so I'm not surprised ugh.

Good luck. (sincere).
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by dbt1949 »

300 "Advisors"

Didn't they make a movie about 300?
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Holman »

I'm guessing "advisors" in this context is really going to mean Forward Air Controllers.

So, yeah, pretty much 300.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Grifman »

Well ISIS certainly has a dark sense of humor:

Image
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by malchior »

GreenGoo wrote:
dbt1949 wrote:So much for Obama's "No boots in Iraq".
I haven't heard the news yet but everything has been leaning this way so I'm not surprised ugh.

Good luck. (sincere).
I'd bet good money these guys are not going to get anywhere close to a battlefield. Obviously there is no guarantee of safety but I don't see how we could allow ourselves to be dragged back in.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by GreenGoo »

300 hundred advisors is a LOT of advice.

I'm guessing these advisors are going to be packing.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by GreenGoo »

Grifman wrote:Well ISIS certainly has a dark sense of humor:
I actually find that funny, sorta. But the humvees were the property of the Iraqi government/military at that point. So ISIS missed the target.

The WH should come out with a statement that essentially congratulates ISIS for adopting the free speech principles that the US was founded on. Bravo! Then talk about how they might be ready to listen to reason and the US looks forward to working with them to stabilize the Iraqi democracy. Or something like that.

Taking it seriously on the world stage would be a bad idea.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by raydude »

GreenGoo wrote:300 hundred advisors is a LOT of advice.

I'm guessing these advisors are going to be packing.
The advisors serve a dual purpose:

1. It allows Obama to say he's doing something militarily to quiet down the folks in Congress who are chomping at the red meat without actually doing something militarily. This is a good thing IMHO because I think the worst option now is to go in guns blazing. This way he can look like he's gonna go in guns blazing without actually doing so.
2. It allows the US govt to form a more accurate picture of the situation on the ground from someone other than the Iraqi government and military leaders - who we know from the first two wars will lie through their teeth and say everything is fine and dandy up to and until the door to Baghdad gets busted open and the ISIS militants smile at the TV cameras.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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raydude wrote:2. It allows the US govt to form a more accurate picture of the situation on the ground from someone other than the Iraqi government and military leaders - who we know from the first two wars will lie through their teeth and say everything is fine and dandy up to and until the door to Baghdad gets busted open and the ISIS militants smile at the TV cameras.
One would think that would be the purview of the CIA. But if this reporting is accurate, it would seem they may have other priorities:
Newsweek wrote:The “surprising” collapse of the Iraqi army and the defection of key Sunni tribal leaders to al-Qaeda-inspired insurgents has largely stripped the CIA of spies in the embattled country, according to knowledgeable intelligence sources. As a result, according to a U.S. intelligence official, the CIA is mostly relying on “technical means”—electronic intercepts of all kinds—and the support of friendly regional secret services, like Jordan’s, to monitor the rapidly deteriorating situation.

President Obama’s announced dispatch of 300 Special Forces advisors to Iraq will have little effect on the advance of the rebels, known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant—and may even worsen the situation, say former and present CIA officers. “The train has left the station,” a former top CIA operations official told Newsweek on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss the situation. “We can monitor where else they are spreading and who their new playmates are, but that is about it. The days of eight guys, bags of money and riding horses [into battle, as in the early days of the Afghan war] are gone.”

A former Special Forces operative who did three tours in Iraq before signing up with the CIA said that U.S. intelligence operatives are for the most part “holed up” in the American embassy in Baghdad, unable to meet with sources in Sunni tribes who previously battled al-Qaeda-backed forces, either because their contacts have defected to the insurgents or because travelling to the battle zones is too dangerous.

...

But several former intelligence operatives questioned whether the CIA was capable of staying on top of events in Iraq, given the security breakdown. “It’s falling apart,” said the former special operations operative. Defense Department and CIA “contractors have been operating the last couple of years in the [outlying] areas at the request of the embassy …” but now, “they say that 70 miles outside of Baghdad, it’s just lawless.”

The former CIA operations official, who retired after several tours as a station chief in hostile capitals, questioned whether the spy agency had a good grip on the rebel forces, who gathered strength fighting the Assad regime in Syria and then swept south with alarming speed early this month. “These guys have not been well [reported on] in Syria, and it is late to start over,” he said. “Also, they will be a very tough target. I imagine we will be working friendly and not-so-friendly [spy] services” from Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and even Iran, “who were quick to offer help after 9/11.”

...

James McIntosh, a former Vietnam operations chief for the CIA, said the agency is probably preparing for the worst in Baghdad, by gathering up files and working on creating networks of so-called “stay-behind” Iraqi spies. “The destruction of records and sensitive materials is a vast problem,” McIntosh said in an email from New Zealand, where he settled after retiring. “There is also likely a lot of sensitive equipment that needs to be either destroyed or shipped out. What about the cash on hand? It’s very likely too much to carry. Who's going to give authorization to burn that?

“The idea of preparing stay-behinds, by hiding gold, arms and communications gear” in Iraq should also be at the top of the CIA’s agenda, he said.
Then again, it certainly behooves U.S. intelligence to downplay its capabilities in Iraq.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Did we learn nothing from Operation Gladio?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Reports are that the judge who sentenced Saddam to death has been captured and killed .
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Somewhere between the switch from ABC to ESPN for today's soccer matches, there was one of those Sunday political talk shows. They had a panel of Republicans (presumably party strategists or something). They had some good takes on the situation from a standpoint of "What I would do" rather than "What Obama Hussein is doing wrong." One guy said to basically put strong political pressure on the proxy actors (Iran and Syria) while at the same time striking ISIS forces with cruise missiles or other non "US boots on the ground" means. Basically force ISIS to take cover and not have free movement everywhere at any time. Including across the border into Syria. It made sense, I bought it somewhat.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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LawBeefaroni wrote:Somewhere between the switch from ABC to ESPN for today's soccer matches, there was one of those Sunday political talk shows. They had a panel of Republicans (presumably party strategists or something). They had some good takes on the situation from a standpoint of "What I would do" rather than "What Obama Hussein is doing wrong." One guy said to basically put strong political pressure on the proxy actors (Iran and Syria) while at the same time striking ISIS forces with cruise missiles or other non "US boots on the ground" means. Basically force ISIS to take cover and not have free movement everywhere at any time. Including across the border into Syria. It made sense, I bought it somewhat.
Which actors in Syria can we put more pressure on who will listen? I also find it rather interesting that they think we should work with Iran...
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Kraken »

Demonstrating unqualified support for Maliki's government would amount to taking sides with the Shiites -- definitely not the way to head off a general Sunni insurrection and all-out religious war, which ought to be everybody's objective.

Right now ISIS (ISIL?) enjoys widespread Sunni sympathy. That will not last when their idea of governing proves to be sharia brutality without delivering public services.

I don't believe there's a military solution to this crisis without concurrent political reforms that give the Sunni a stake in the Baghdad government. Certainly not a US military solution.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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The only viable US military solution would be a Roman one, which was done (on a temporary basis in west Germany and Japan), but isn't in our DNA now.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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I'm trying to figure out exactly what he meant here, but I am having trouble parsing his words any other way:
Cheney said: “When I was secretary, we had basically a two-war strategy. We had to maintain sufficient forces to be able to fight two wars at once. He switched that. Now we’re going to have a one-war strategy. And that’s all being done as a rationale to justify further deep cuts in the defense budget so he can allocate that money to food stamps or whatever else he wants to spend it on.”
Is he essentially saying our money is better spent killing people in Iraq than helping people eat here in America? Am I reading that correct?
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Re: Post War Iraq

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It's Cheney. Of course he is.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Smoove_B wrote:Is he essentially saying our money is better spent killing people in Iraq than helping people eat here in America? Am I reading that correct?
Killing people in Iraq serves the interests of Darth Cheney. People eating here in 'Merica does not.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Smoove_B »

Oh, I have no doubts he believes it. I'm just amazed he actually said it. Out loud. To a news reporter. On the record.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Well, remember that once you get far enough to the right safety net spending (on food stamps on the like) is not just bad because it costs money and enlarges government, but is affirmatively bad *because it provides free stuff to people.* The thinking is that giving money / food / etc. to poor people discourages self-reliance and encourages freeloading, whereas if you cut that spending poor people will get off their duffs and get high paying jobs to support their families, stimulating the overall economy in the process.

So the thinking is: not only is he cutting defense spending (endangering America), instead of saving the money he's spending it poorly (on safety net spending that just encourages the poor to live in dependency rather than lift themselves up by their boot straps).
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Re: Post War Iraq

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My freaking news reader is set to UK for some reason, and I haven't figured out how to change it yet.

Yesterday I read an article interviewing the current PM (whatever his name is. edit: of Iraq). He talked about how his contracts with American companies for American jets were a quagmire and a mistake. He is expecting delivery of Russian made (and supplied? Not sure) fighters.

He also blamed the US for not providing air support during the initial rebel fighting, which would have ended it before it began (paraphrasing). This is the US's fault, apparently.

He was clearly talking out his ass to non-US media, but a couple of things:

1) He's actively hanging the US out to dry
2) He has been dealing with Russia for military hardware (apparently).

Anyone have a comment on that?
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Everything old is new again.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Isgrimnur wrote:Everything old is new again.
Yeah, he did say they were cheaper as well. Forgot that part.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GreenGoo wrote:My freaking news reader is set to UK for some reason, and I haven't figured out how to change it yet.

Yesterday I read an article interviewing the current PM (whatever his name is). He talked about how his contracts with American companies for American jets were a quagmire and a mistake. He is expecting delivery of Russian made (and supplied? Not sure) fighters.

It's good business for the Kremlin. Russia gets an arms trade partner and looks like the white knight as a bonus.

First of 25 Frogfoots delivered to Iraq.
The Iraqi government turned to Russia to bolster its air capabilities, saying U.S. fighter jets were taking too long to be delivered. Russian advisers who arrived in Iraq are helping to put the “logistical procedures in place,” and the aircraft will enter service within three to four days, air force commander General Anwar Ameen said yesterday on state-run Iraqiya TV.

“One day after the Russian deputy foreign minister said that Moscow would not stand by idly, the Kremlin delivered the first of 25 Sukhoi fighter jets to Iraq,” said Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai.

“The delivery is to illustrate the Kremlin’s quick action to help the Iraqi government fight the opposition,” Karasik said. “The move is also part of guaranteeing that any future government in Baghdad will be tied to Moscow for military equipment. It is smart business as usual.”

The Pentagon has said it maintained all along that the first F-16 aircraft would be handed over in the fall.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by raydude »

Its probably safe to say that this time we won't be arming the rebels with Stinger missiles to shoot down Russian airpower.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Pyperkub »

Sounds like the Shiite Government is falling apart:
Iraq's new parliament postponed its first session until next week, citing a lack of a quorum.

The move came after 90 members of parliament failed to return after a 30-minute morning break during the scheduled session Tuesday.

"We are going to postpone because of an urgent matter," the speaker of the parliament said. He did not say what the urgent matter was, and it was not immediately clear what happened.

The newly elected parliament convened with 255 out of 328 elected officials attending, which was enough for a legal quorum, the speaker said. But when many failed to return after the break, there were not enough members to continue.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I don't thnk it needs to be said that Iraq as we knew it no longer exists. Amazing how fast a country can just...fall apart like that. I know it had been building for a while, but the speed with which it actually went down once it started...wow.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by gbasden »

Looks like Biden's three state solution is reality whether we like it or not, at this point. I'm not convinced that's a bad thing, except for all of the money and goodwill we pissed away getting to this point.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Zarathud »

So we should have listened to Biden? :)
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Re: Post War Iraq

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gbasden wrote:Looks like Biden's three state solution is reality whether we like it or not, at this point. I'm not convinced that's a bad thing, except for all of the money and goodwill we pissed away getting to this point.
It's sort of funny, because I don't want to cheer for ISIS, but if they successfully partition Iraq into three, that's probably for the best long-term. Biden was right about a partition probably being for the best, though at the same time there were a lot of practical considerations preventing the U.S. from doing that - the international community would've exploded over our carving up a sovereign state, especially if we couldn't get an Iraqi referendum on that passed (and who knows on that).

That said, that the Sunni state in this partition scenario would basically be ruled by a Taliban-esque elite, creating a Taliban state that would border Israel, is a hell of a downside.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Zarathud wrote:So we should have listened to Biden? :)
We should have listened to 1993 Dick Cheney.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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El Guapo wrote: That said, that the Sunni state in this partition scenario would basically be ruled by a Taliban-esque elite, creating a Taliban state that would border Israel, is a hell of a downside.
I wonder about that. One would think that the rest of the Muslim countries - especially their governments - would be shaking in their boots because essentially the Islamic State just proclaimed al-Baghdadi "King of all the Muslims". You can't be a ruler of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, or whatever and not feel the slightest shiver at that.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Carpet_pissr wrote:I don't thnk it needs to be said that Iraq as we knew it no longer exists. Amazing how fast a country can just...fall apart like that. I know it had been building for a while, but the speed with which it actually went down once it started...wow.
I''m not the least bit surprised. Iraq was created when Great Britain shed their middle east possessions after WW2, with no apparent thought given to the animosity between Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Three states should have been created all along; really, the only way that nation can be governed is by a heavy-handed dictator; the kind that typically have ambitions that piss us off. It's not much different than another poorly-contrived country, Yugoslavia, after Tito died.

UN intervention to create separate nations for these groups probably would quiet things down for a time. Eventually, though, hate mongering among these groups will give rise to a genocidal ruler who; perhaps with the aid of other like-minded nations, well seek to "put the land back together" but this time eradicating all opposing people in the process.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Jeff V wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I don't thnk it needs to be said that Iraq as we knew it no longer exists. Amazing how fast a country can just...fall apart like that. I know it had been building for a while, but the speed with which it actually went down once it started...wow.
I''m not the least bit surprised. Iraq was created when Great Britain shed their middle east possessions after WW2, with no apparent thought given to the animosity between Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Three states should have been created all along; really, the only way that nation can be governed is by a heavy-handed dictator; the kind that typically have ambitions that piss us off. It's not much different than another poorly-contrived country, Yugoslavia, after Tito died.

UN intervention to create separate nations for these groups probably would quiet things down for a time. Eventually, though, hate mongering among these groups will give rise to a genocidal ruler who; perhaps with the aid of other like-minded nations, well seek to "put the land back together" but this time eradicating all opposing people in the process.
You say this like we're supposed to learn from history.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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Jeff V wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I don't thnk it needs to be said that Iraq as we knew it no longer exists. Amazing how fast a country can just...fall apart like that. I know it had been building for a while, but the speed with which it actually went down once it started...wow.
I''m not the least bit surprised. Iraq was created when Great Britain shed their middle east possessions after WW2, with no apparent thought given to the animosity between Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Three states should have been created all along; really, the only way that nation can be governed is by a heavy-handed dictator; the kind that typically have ambitions that piss us off. It's not much different than another poorly-contrived country, Yugoslavia, after Tito died.

UN intervention to create separate nations for these groups probably would quiet things down for a time. Eventually, though, hate mongering among these groups will give rise to a genocidal ruler who; perhaps with the aid of other like-minded nations, well seek to "put the land back together" but this time eradicating all opposing people in the process.
Started even earlier when the French and English didn't listen to Lawrence after the great war and arbitrarily divided up the region, rather than working with the tribal/religious divisions he had advised.
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Re: Post War Iraq

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The United States is considering air strikes in Iraq in response to a militant surge in northern areas that has left minority groups trapped by fighting, a U.S. official told CNN.
The official said the possibility of such military action "has been something" the Obama administration "has been talking about for some time and the latest news just might meet the threshold for action."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/07/world/ira ... index.html

After reading that I have an old boot camp marching song stuck in my head.


Here we go again....

Doing the same ole thing again.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by El Guapo »

Pyperkub wrote:
Jeff V wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote:I don't thnk it needs to be said that Iraq as we knew it no longer exists. Amazing how fast a country can just...fall apart like that. I know it had been building for a while, but the speed with which it actually went down once it started...wow.
I''m not the least bit surprised. Iraq was created when Great Britain shed their middle east possessions after WW2, with no apparent thought given to the animosity between Kurds, Shiites, and Sunnis. Three states should have been created all along; really, the only way that nation can be governed is by a heavy-handed dictator; the kind that typically have ambitions that piss us off. It's not much different than another poorly-contrived country, Yugoslavia, after Tito died.

UN intervention to create separate nations for these groups probably would quiet things down for a time. Eventually, though, hate mongering among these groups will give rise to a genocidal ruler who; perhaps with the aid of other like-minded nations, well seek to "put the land back together" but this time eradicating all opposing people in the process.
Started even earlier when the French and English didn't listen to Lawrence after the great war and arbitrarily divided up the region, rather than working with the tribal/religious divisions he had advised.
Oh, they listened to Lawrence, they just decided to do what was in their interests, rather than what was in the interests of the people of the Middle East. The lines of the states aren't really arbitrary, they're just designed to suit colonial rulers rather than the ruled.
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Re: Post War Iraq

Post by Kurth »

The more I hear about what ISIS is doing, the more I'm starting to feel we need to do whatever we can to take them out:

Who will stop ISIS? Christian forced to convert to Islam, then beheaded
If you're following the news about ISIS, which now calls itself the Islamic State, you might think you've mistakenly clicked on a historical story about barbarians from millennia ago.
In a matter of months, the group seized territory in both Iraq and Syria and declared an Islamic caliphate, celebrating its own shocking slaughter along the way.

"I don't see any attention from the rest of the world," a member of the Yazidi minority in Iraq told the New Yorker. "In one day, they killed more than two thousand Yazidi in Sinjar, and the whole world says, 'Save Gaza, save Gaza.'"

In Syria, the group hoisted some of its victims severed heads on poles. One of the latest videos of the savagery shows a Christian man forced to his knees, surrounded by masked militants, identified in the video as members of ISIS. They force the man at gunpoint to "convert" to Islam. Then, the group beheads him.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
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