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The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

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Unagi
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

Yo-Jung or just Choe Ryong Hae

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Scraper »

I'm not putting too much stock in this report. He's been out of public view for weeks before, his wife was out of public view for months, generals have been out of public view and they resurface. South Korea doesn't seem to publicly believe it yet either.
FTE

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

I think it’s that Katy Tur of NBC tweeted that he was brain dead , it moves it up a notch.

But yeah. I could totally see him appearing in a week like nothing happened. Certainly something has happened, as his absence is telling, and I believe it’s a fact that foreign doctors were flown in (not sure I would do that , as a dr. I wouldn’t trust that I’d be allowed to leave )

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Paingod »

Unagi wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:00 am
I wouldn’t trust that I’d be allowed to leave
Especially if something bad were to happen during your time there. I'm pretty sure you'd be strapped to an AA Gun and given the final salute.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Max Peck »

If Kim does die, I can't decide whether it's more likely that Trump's official tweet will express profound grief at his passing, or imply that Trump had him whacked for not following through on the treaty negotiations. Although with Trump, it could be both.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by malchior »

I just saw on tv that South Korea said he was fine and working with advisors "in the field". Weird times.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Daehawk »

Trump didn't get his promised Christmas present so Kim had to pay up.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Holman »

Who would be next in line if KJU died unexpectedly?

From my (light) reading, there appears to be no clear successor. KJU is the son of the Dear Leader and grandson of the Great Leader, but his children (there may be more than one, all kept out of the public eye) are very young. KJU's older brother was passed over for the role when their father died.

There would almost certainly be a power struggle, but it's hard for outsiders to know much about the factors that would determine succession.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

Holman wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:39 pm
Who would be next in line if KJU died unexpectedly?

From my (light) reading, there appears to be no clear successor. KJU is the son of the Dear Leader and grandson of the Great Leader, but his children (there may be more than one, all kept out of the public eye) are very young. KJU's older brother was passed over for the role when their father died.

There would almost certainly be a power struggle, but it's hard for outsiders to know much about the factors that would determine succession.
This is a great article regarding that (perhaps you already read): https://www.nknews.org/2019/03/continge ... m-jong-un/


written a month ago. but yeah - there is no clear answer. Basically the short answer is: Look to see who ever is the Chairman of the Funeral Committee.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Holman »

Good points there.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by gilraen »

Another possibility would be one of his kids, with his sister serving as a regent until the kid gets older. Full-on royal style.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:39 pm
Who would be next in line if KJU died unexpectedly?

From my (light) reading, there appears to be no clear successor. KJU is the son of the Dear Leader and grandson of the Great Leader, but his children (there may be more than one, all kept out of the public eye) are very young. KJU's older brother was passed over for the role when their father died.

There would almost certainly be a power struggle, but it's hard for outsiders to know much about the factors that would determine succession.
They would probably have open and fair elections to pick his successor, no doubt.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by malchior »

He dead. Guess South Korea had bad intel. :ninja:


China has dispatched a team to North Korea, including medical experts, to advise on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Max Peck »

Meh, that article specifically says that they cannot determine Kim's actual state of health. The most convincing evidence presented for Kim being gravely ill is that Trump said that he isn't. Time will tell.

It is interesting that China is apparently taking a hand in whatever is actually happening. A lot of the purges conducted by Kim were targeted at people, like his brother, who had close ties to China. I would imagine that China will jump at the opportunity to re-exert influence/control in the event of a windfall regime change.

They might even be willing to help nudge things along, given an opening. :coffee:
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

malchior wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:01 am
He dead. Guess South Korea had bad intel. :ninja:


China has dispatched a team to North Korea, including medical experts, to advise on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
If he is ‘dead’ why bring in China ?

I’m guessing he’s brain dead though. ?

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by malchior »

Brain dead is dead. China is potentially coming to settle a secession dispute and show they still have influence over their satellite state. My SK remark above was a little tongue in cheek. I suspect they know this but released a statement saying he was alive and well because that is the story they need out there right now for whatever reason. Or he could be alive but badly banged up. The Chinese have much better medical experts. It's a mystery still but it is hard to believe he wouldn't have popped out to show face by now if he was 100% healthy.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

Well I certainly agree that he’s not 100% healthy. And I also feel it’s likely he’s at death’s door, if not half way through the threshold.
I think it would be remarkable if NK brought China in to essential ‘pick’ the successor. But I can’t say I know enough about the situation to discount that.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Holman »

China has every reason to want a stable succession of power in NK. It makes complete sense that they might provide the high-profile cover of "medical assistance" for a few days. (In fact it makes more sense if Kim is dead than if he is actually ill.)

One reason for everyone to be nervous is that Trump is desperate for a distraction. I wouldn't put it past him to consider a strike against a leaderless NK regime because it might seem like an easy win.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Daehawk »

Meh, that article specifically says that they cannot determine Kim's actual state of health.
Is he in a box made by anyone named Schrödinger perhaps?

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by GungHo »

So...just how bad is this? Is there any kind of certainty around how likely it is DPRK implodes in anarchy? Or is that place such a black hole that we really just don't know?
OR
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Daehawk »

A little tiny part of me wants to feel sorry for him. Then the rest of me reminds that part of how many people he has had killed including his own family members, how he lets his people starve as long as he eats, how he does nothing but lie to them, and how he threatens the world and my own country a little more than Trump does. I cannot wish any good upon him.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Kraken »

GungHo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:36 pm
So...just how bad is this? Is there any kind of certainty around how likely it is DPRK implodes in anarchy? Or is that place such a black hole that we really just don't know?
I only know what I read in the news. It says there are no signs of unusual troop activity. If Kim is dead, the power struggle will be among other Kims. I think the US would benefit from a different Kim, because the current one is too good at using Trump.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

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Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:20 am
GungHo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:36 pm
So...just how bad is this? Is there any kind of certainty around how likely it is DPRK implodes in anarchy? Or is that place such a black hole that we really just don't know?
I only know what I read in the news. It says there are no signs of unusual troop activity. If Kim is dead, the power struggle will be among other Kims. I think the US would benefit from a different Kim, because the current one is too good at using Trump.
It's not like it's all that hard to use Trump. Just tell him how large his hands are and that he's doing a yuuuge job, and that you want him to do you a favor that involves overturning an Obama policy and he'll be all yours.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by malchior »

The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

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China - "You are now China. Your people will farm food for the rest of us. Welcome"
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:34 pm
The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.
(Assuming that Kim is dead) Whoever takes over will need to demonstrate strength -- first with an internal purge, and then on the world stage. That could get perilous.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by gameoverman »

Daehawk wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:00 pm
China - "You are now China. Your people will farm food for the rest of us. Welcome"
I think it's possible the Chinese have someone in place, their chosen successor. When the time comes this person will step up, with secret support from China, and there's your transition. If I was running China I would have planned for a regime change long ago, and spent all these years cultivating a new and more stable leader. The last thing I think China would want to do is leave it to chance.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Unagi »

SK is insisting that he’s alive and well.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
malchior wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:34 pm
The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.
(Assuming that Kim is dead) Whoever takes over will need to demonstrate strength -- first with an internal purge, and then on the world stage.
Not they are the horse backed by China.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Kraken »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 pm
Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
malchior wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:34 pm
The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.
(Assuming that Kim is dead) Whoever takes over will need to demonstrate strength -- first with an internal purge, and then on the world stage.
Not they are the horse backed by China.
Do you think China overrides palace intrigues?

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Holman »

Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:34 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 pm
Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
malchior wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:34 pm
The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.
(Assuming that Kim is dead) Whoever takes over will need to demonstrate strength -- first with an internal purge, and then on the world stage.
Not they are the horse backed by China.
Do you think China overrides palace intrigues?
For a couple of years now I've read that the NK Politburo is riddled with Chinese interests. Since the Pyongyang ruling caste can't directly deal with the outside world and outside banks, they do it through Chinese fronts. That adds up to a lot of Chinese influence.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:54 pm
Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:34 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:33 pm
Kraken wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:37 pm
malchior wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:34 pm
The world has a high level of risk right now. This is just another one on the pile, the potential major risk is that there will be a messy transition. The regime is generally very stable but might blow apart at any moment if things go very badly. Factors to consider are the police state, a huge army, nuclear weapons, and the potential that there is a coronavirus epidemic there with terrible to nonexistent health infrastructure. It is a tinderbox potentially though major direct impacts are likely limited to the nations immediately in the region. Which is why I assume China is there.
(Assuming that Kim is dead) Whoever takes over will need to demonstrate strength -- first with an internal purge, and then on the world stage.
Not they are the horse backed by China.
Do you think China overrides palace intrigues?
For a couple of years now I've read that the NK Politburo is riddled with Chinese interests. Since the Pyongyang ruling caste can't directly deal with the outside world and outside banks, they do it through Chinese fronts. That adds up to a lot of Chinese influence.
I suppose if there's a struggle among various Kim contenders, the Chinese wouldn't care which one comes out on top as long as s/he bends the knee.

According to other people who might know more about it than I do, his sister holds most of the levers of power, but NK is not culturally primed for a female ruler. But other people who might know more about it than I do think that Jong Un is alive and well, so who knows?

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Max Peck »

North Korea blows up joint liaison office with South in Kaesong
North Korea has blown up its joint liaison office with the South near the border town of Kaesong, South Korean officials say.

The move comes just hours after the North renewed threats of military action at the Korean border.

The site, which is in the North's territory, was opened in 2018 to help the two Koreas to communicate.

The liaison office has been empty since January due to Covid-19 restrictions.

Tensions between North and South Korea have been escalating for weeks, prompted by defector groups in the south sending propaganda across the border.

The North Korean leader's sister, Kim Yo-jong, threatened to demolish the office in a statement at the weekend.
This does feel like Kim Yo-jong is stepping up her game, regardless of her brother's state of health.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by Holman »

malchior wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:50 pm
That's an *absurdly* misleading headline.

The article itself says this:
"In order to eliminate the nuclear threats from the U.S., the DPRK government has made all possible efforts either through dialogue or in resort to the international law, but all ended in a vain effort," North Korean state news wrote in an essay Friday morning about future prospects for peace, using an abbreviation for the country's official name. "The only option left was to counter nuke with nuke."
That's not the language of imminent attack but of arms-race bluster. "The only option left was to counter nuke with nuke" means a buildup of NK's nuclear arsenal, and in fact the rest of the article makes clear that this is what's threatened (though without pointing out how utterly impossible it would be for NK to match the US nuclear threat on any reasonable timetable).

Is US News & World Report usually this bad?
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by pr0ner »

North Korea has to know if they actually nuked the US the country would be glassed. I definitely took this as arms race bluster from NK and nothing more.
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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

Post by malchior »

I don't know - it isn't clear what was directly said and I know I can't go to the source article. It wouldn't be unusual for them to threaten an attack. They saber rattle a lot for the domestic audience. Though I agree it is confusing because some of text indicates standard arms race type talk.

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Re: The Dear Loser comes into his own. (North Korea)

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