[North Korea] The Dear Loser comes into his own.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 3:51 pm

I'm going to try to make the case for the status quo:

For as much as we talk about NK's craziness, hasn't the situation been essentially stable for more than half a century? We talk about Korean instability as if some nightmare is about to unfold, but it never does.

They've had nukes for a decade, and before that they've always had an absurdly large military, but they've shown no actual appetite for a war that would inevitably end their regime. They're not expansionist, and their ideology attracts no one. They're incapable of leading anyone down their road.

NK is awful in every way, but the problem they create is mainly a diplomatic one, not a military one. (And that diplomacy probably isn't even ours, but China's, and it involves eventually buying off the Pyongyang elite.)

If we do decide on a military solution, it means embarking on history's largest nation-building exercise and creating history's largest refugee crisis at a time and in a place where we lack talent, vision, and resources. The suffering and misery caused thereby would be all on us. It would put our ally SK at tremendous risk, and it would probably replace Iraq as America's greatest foreign policy blunder.

What will probably result from all this, and probably without fanfare (assuming Trump doesn't somehow tweet-fuck up the negotiations involved), will be the installation of anti-missile defenses in SK and Japan capable of shooting down whatever NK tries to launch in some future crisis.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:45 pm

NK's military posture is grounded in a healthy fear of US belligerence. The tougher Trump talks, the more he validates their nuclear program. While there are no good options, throwing a public tantrum is the worst option if persuading NK to curtail its nukes is the end goal.

And it's a good thing the financial markets are closed for the long weekend if that tantrum extends to ending all trade with China. Most of us greet such empty threats with appropriate :rolleyes: but traders can't be so sanguine.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:49 pm

Real options with Trump in power? None. He has no diplomatic skills, only increases NK's desperation to develop nuclear deterrence against the US, and war isn't winnable.

Maybe we can hope Dear Loser dies from a stroke, but that's it.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:11 pm

Zarathud wrote:Real options with Trump in power? None. He has no diplomatic skills, only increases NK's desperation to develop nuclear deterrence against the US, and war isn't winnable.

Maybe we can hope Dear Loser dies from a stroke, but that's it.

Or Trump. At this point it would be an excellent outcome.

Freyland · Post by **Freyland** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:59 pm

This is why I was taking leaders out of the equation. I don't wish to polarize the discussion, I wish to know possible options. I'm fearful there is no non-military option because technically we are still at war (truce). It burns me to hear China say we should stop our military exercises, because that is what you do when war is a constant, imminent probability... You stay ready. So what scenario other than war can defuse this situation? Anything that appeases NK is likely to leave our allies at risk. Furthermore, we aren't the ones constantly threatening war.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:18 pm

Is there a reason to think NK isn't ultimately China's problem?

We want SK safe. China wants Korea to remain divided (as a unified Korea under Seoul would put a strong US ally right on China's border). We have no way to unify Korea without taking on massive NK problems.

I *don't* think China wants the risks that would come from letting NK try to unify Korea under Pyongyang, plus no one (not even Pyongyang) really believes it would work.

What would benefit China most would be a stable and eventually even productive NK client state. The possession of nuclear weapons makes the "client" part more complicated.

Is it possible that NK is less a failure of Western diplomacy than a failure of Chinese strategy? And maybe now they'll see it's time to get on solving it?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:26 pm

malchior wrote:
Zarathud wrote:Real options with Trump in power? None. He has no diplomatic skills, only increases NK's desperation to develop nuclear deterrence against the US, and war isn't winnable.

Maybe we can hope Dear Loser dies from a stroke, but that's it.
Or Trump. At this point it would be an excellent outcome.

Isgrimnur wrote:Ooh! Ooh! Actuarial tables!

Donald Trump - 70 years old on inaugration day - Death Probability

70 2.3528%
71 2.5693%
72 2.8041%
73 3.0567%
That leaves us with a 89.6440% chance that he doesn't die in the next four years.

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Sun Sep 03, 2017 11:00 pm

Freyland wrote:This is why I was taking leaders out of the equation. I don't wish to polarize the discussion, I wish to know possible options. I'm fearful there is no non-military option because technically we are still at war (truce). It burns me to hear China say we should stop our military exercises, because that is what you do when war is a constant, imminent probability... You stay ready. So what scenario other than war can defuse this situation? Anything that appeases NK is likely to leave our allies at risk. Furthermore, we aren't the ones constantly threatening war.

I don't see how you can take the leaders out if the equation. If you do, there is no equation/problem to begin with.

I am going with this.. NK has a need to save face and talk big. I don't see them doing something stupid like nuking anyone.. I can't see anyone, China included, condoning that...

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:13 am

Freyland wrote:This is why I was taking leaders out of the equation. I don't wish to polarize the discussion, I wish to know possible options. I'm fearful there is no non-military option because technically we are still at war (truce). It burns me to hear China say we should stop our military exercises, because that is what you do when war is a constant, imminent probability... You stay ready. So what scenario other than war can defuse this situation? Anything that appeases NK is likely to leave our allies at risk. Furthermore, we aren't the ones constantly threatening war.

You say that as if there is a military option. How would that work?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:32 am

Holman wrote:Is there a reason to think NK isn't ultimately China's problem?

I don't think so. It is a shared problem of several stakeholders. All with shared and conflicting interests.

Is it possible that NK is less a failure of Western diplomacy than a failure of Chinese strategy? And maybe now they'll see it's time to get on solving it?

It is both. China wanted a buffer state back in the 50s. They got it but they did so by backing a military dictatorship. It unfortunately evolved over time into this weird cult we have now. And the nature of that cult resists any solution.

There is no practical military solution any longer. No practical economic solution or political. There are levers to apply but only to put pressure on them. But only gently and with recognition that you are effectively starving civilians in the process. There is no real way to hurt the top of the pyramid because they have total control over the economy. The only way out is likely some random event. Enough key players die simultaneously. An asteroid hits. They nuke themselves. Something completely unlikely.

That is why taking the leaders out of the equation makes absolutely no sense to pull in the other thread here - Trump is applying *way too much leverage*. The Chinese must be seething but in a contained way because that fucking moron is also pissing off SK and gave away the trade farm. They just need NK to survive Trump without ending the world and they'll have a significant advantage regionally and potentially globally. Again because Trump is the hugest fucking moron in American history.

Fitzy · Post by **Fitzy** » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:34 am

Kraken wrote: And it's a good thing the financial markets are closed for the long weekend if that tantrum extends to ending all trade with China. Most of us greet such empty threats with appropriate :rolleyes: but traders can't be so sanguine.

The new iPhone is coming out in about a week. Can you imagine the riots if that gets cut off

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:38 pm

North Korea conducted yet another missile test over Japan today.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:20 pm

pr0ner wrote:North Korea conducted yet another missile test over Japan today.

Does anyone have a realistic answer to this situation? Send more tweets? Pass more UN resolutions? Continue trying to get China to solve the problem? We're kind of stuck with this lunatic as long as Russia and China continue to back him.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:49 pm

I'm getting a feeling that we are not in a position to shoot down missiles (perhaps at ALL?) that fly <past> Japan. (I understand the concern about exploding something above or near Japan).

If my favorite person in the world was the president, I'd be questioning our inability to act on this shit.

Ironically, Trump being a complete Nightmare, I'm not sure what I want to demand of 'my government'.

This is Exactly where folks who kept Clinton from taking office should gain some points for entering Hell (I'm an atheist, so that's empty)... but - THIS is why people who thought Trump was only a fucking Disaster in the Private Sector, and would Rise above It once he took office (Smutly) are to hold full "credit" for his presidency.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:12 pm

I get that everyone wants to bash Trump, but this can has been kicked down the road by every President for the last 60 years. I don't see how any President can resolve this situation without causing a global clusterfuck.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:35 pm

This should help...

Seoul readies ‘decapitation unit’ to assassinate Kim Jong Un — and tells him it’s coming

The last time South Korea is known to have plotted to assassinate the North Korean leadership, nothing went as planned.

In the late 1960s, after North Korean commandos tried to ransack the presidential palace in Seoul, South Korea secretly trained misfits plucked from prison or off the streets to sneak into North Korea and slit the throat of its leader, Kim Il Sung. When the mission was aborted, the men mutinied.

They killed their trainers and fought their way into Seoul before blowing themselves up, an episode the government concealed for decades.

Now, as Kim’s grandson, Kim Jong Un, accelerates his nuclear missile program, South Korea is again targeting the North’s leadership. A day after North Korea conducted its sixth — and by far most powerful — nuclear test this month, the South Korean defense minister, Song Young-moo, told lawmakers in Seoul that a special forces brigade defense officials described as a “decapitation unit” would be established by the end of the year.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:38 pm

What could go wrong?

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:59 pm

He could threaten Japan with extinction. Maybe even fire some missiles in the vicinity.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:56 am

Moliere wrote:I get that everyone wants to bash Trump, but this can has been kicked down the road by every President for the last 60 years. I don't see how any President can resolve this situation without causing a global clusterfuck.

Yeah, and it's unfortunate that it's coming to a head during this erratic and unskilled administration. Or maybe that will turn out to be fortunate, since they are not bound by the past, or even by accepted diplomatic norms. Diplomacy is not their strong suit, though.

Interdicting missiles would be a good countermove if we had high confidence in success. Trying and failing would only make matters worse. and as I understand it the technology is still iffy.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:03 am

Can you imagine if Drumpf was the president who reconciled things with NK? He would have a major place in history, and in a generation the fact that he was a narcissistic imbecile will be forgotten.

On the one hand, solving NK would be amazing. On the other, I hate his guts.

Ok Drumpf, solve NK and all is forgiven.

Good luck.

Punisher · Post by **Punisher** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:29 am

Moliere wrote:What could go wrong?

I don't know, but I think I'm inspired to write a comedy script about it!

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:14 am

Nixon was great for relations with China. He's still understood to be a horrible person.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:20 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Nixon was great for relations with China. He's still understood to be a horrible person.

He used to be considered a "horrible person". Now he is considered "a whole fuck load better than Trump".

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:22 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Nixon was great for relations with China. He's still understood to be a horrible person.

Only because of Watergate and resigning.

If watergate hadn't been so public (with decades and decades and decades of media treatment of it), he'd be known for China despite still having been a horrible person. You'd have to watch obscure documentaries to know the truth.

Without Watergate Nixon would be the Ben Franklin of relations with China.

Unagi · Post by **Unagi** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:26 am

Moliere wrote:I get that everyone wants to bash Trump, but this can has been kicked down the road by every President for the last 60 years. I don't see how any President can resolve this situation without causing a global clusterfuck.

I agree.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:35 am

Wait till you figure out we have a barrel we are kicking down the road a little behind that can.

If you think NK is bad imagine when you have an Iran/NK nuclear alliance promising to respond to attacks on one another.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:42 am

How is that a different can? The imaginary barrel you created disappears when the can does.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:33 pm

Rip wrote: If you think NK is bad imagine when you have an Iran/NK nuclear alliance promising to respond to attacks on one another.

That's nothing but Axis-of-Evil fanfic.

Why would Iran, a burgeoning power with a serious shot at world influence and the economic power of a growing and sane middle-class, set itself up to go down the toilet with NK when China finally decides they're finished?

Why would a paranoid, insular NK tie its own survival to the shifting winds of the Middle East?

Two pariah states can establish open ties without thereby becoming a joint empire. The math is pretty simple.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:17 pm

More sanctions! It's bound to work this time.

President Donald Trump announced an expansion of sanctions on North Korea Thursday and praised China for taking action to limit financial transactions with the isolated communist nation.

The effort to project forward momentum in his bid to isolate Pyongyang came at the end of Trump's four-day visit to the United Nations General Assembly, where the crisis has taken prominence in rapid-pace meetings with more than a dozen world leaders.

His emphasis on economic efforts to end the standoff was a sign the President has not exhausted diplomacy in his dealings with North Korea, despite his warnings earlier in the week of dire military consequences should the nuclear provocations continue.

The new set of US sanctions on financial institutions that do business with North Korea is not targeted specifically at China, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Thursday.

Of course this time they will be the best sanctions ever imposed against N.K. Better than any sanctions previously done by any past President.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:20 pm

Not like the Russians care:

At least eight North Korean ships that left Russia with a cargo of fuel this year headed for their homeland despite declaring other destinations, a ploy that U.S. officials say is often used to undermine sanctions.

Reuters has no evidence of wrongdoing by the vessels, whose movements were recorded in Reuters ship-tracking data. Changing a ship’s destination once underway is not forbidden and it is unclear whether any of the ships unloaded fuel in North Korea.

But U.S. officials say that changing destination mid-voyage is a hallmark of North Korean state tactics to circumvent the international trade sanctions imposed over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.

Changing course and the complex chain of different firms --many offshore -- involved in shipments can complicate efforts to check how much fuel is supplied to North Korea and monitor compliance with a cap on fuel imports under U.N. sanctions.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:25 am

To put it in perspective, MANY tankers, particularly in the petchem market, change destinations after leaving port. Clients change their minds about volumes, negotiations fail, the supply chain changes, etc.

Creates havoc for analysts trying to look at import/export data and come to a conclusion.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:18 am

Kim responds personally to Trump:

The internet is in a tizzy because he called Trump a dotard.

Normally, I'd say that was an insult but in this case it may be pretty accurate.

Max Peck · Post by **Max Peck** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:24 am

Technically, Kim himself didn't call Trump a dotard; the hero of the day is the anonymous Nork translator that converted the original Korean text to English. Apparently the literal translation would be something along the line of "old beast lunatic."

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:27 am

I heard that even on the state network the statement was read by someone other than Kim and the broadcast only had still photos of him. Is that right? Sounds odd.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:30 am

Looking, found this.

The North Korean news media carried photographs of Mr. Kim sitting in his office and reading his statement, but his voice was not broadcast. On the country’s state-run Central TV, a female announcer read his statement.

Guessing he was too hungover.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:37 am

This Sam and Diane shit is getting tedious. It's obvious Trump and Kim love each other.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:45 am

Perhaps some child in Colorado needs to send Kim some cupcakes.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:48 am

Moliere wrote:I get that everyone wants to bash Trump, but this can has been kicked down the road by every President for the last 60 years. I don't see how any President can resolve this situation without causing a global clusterfuck.

I don't know that people expect Trump to resolve NK. I'd rather he adopt a "do no harm" mantra. The problem of the Korean peninsula isn't one that Trump created. But it might be a good idea if he didn't pour gas on the fire by getting into an insult driven pissing match with Kim.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:00 pm

The burden of proof is on Trump to show that he's not a mentally deranged dotard. If the end goal is to convince NK to abandon its nuclear deterrent, threatening them with annihilation is not constructive.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:04 pm

Kraken wrote:The burden of proof is on Trump to show that he's not a mentally deranged dotard. If the end goal is to convince NK to abandon its nuclear deterrent, threatening them with annihilation is not constructive.

Why would NK ever abandon their nukes? We've been trying to bribe/strongarm them against getting nukes for decades and it hasn't worked.