actually, go back and read the whole first page of this thread and muse upon how you've spent your last 1400+ daystgb wrote:Bachman/Trump vs. Clinton/Clinton
Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
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- hitbyambulance
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
wrapping up with the first post in this thread, from four years ago.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
isn't it just!Rip wrote:It seems Cruz gets more support on drudge than at CPAC.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/politics/ ... ?hpt=hp_t2Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky resoundingly won the straw poll at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference, cementing his status as among the favorites to capture the next Republican presidential nomination.
Paul captured 31% of the vote in the survey of CPAC attendees as to whom they would pick for president. It is the second straight such win for the Kentucky senator, who is the son of libertarian icon and former Rep. Ron Paul.
The next closest contender was Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 11%.
The top six was rounded out by neurosurgeon turned conservative firebrand Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
Seems Santorum did better there as well.
Carson? That is shocking. Makes me wonder if heand Walker are the source for much of the other vote on Drudge.
Drudges full list and current vote BTW with the count now closing on 100K.
JEB BUSH 6.28%
CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.94%
TED CRUZ 29.27%
MIKE HUCKABEE 3.67%
BOBBY JINDAL 2.95%
SARAH PALIN 4.96%
RAND PAUL 30.13%
RICK PERRY 4.75%
PAUL RYAN 3.58%
RICK SANTORUM 0.87%
DONALD TRUMP 1.83%
OTHER 6.77%
Trump with twice the vote of Santorum that is interesting.
Captain Caveman wrote:Please, please, please let Donald Trump make the cut.Holman wrote:
The article goes on to list the state of play. Right now the admitted debaters would be:
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Rick Perry
- YellowKing
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
My first non-jokey post in this thread:
So yeah, I guess the bitterness had already set in.YellowKing wrote:It's ironic that the people most concerned about religious extremism are the religious extremists.
I'm just done with the GOP. Until they can serve up someone who is not batshit insane, I'm done. That party has completely and utterly lost its way, and the inmates are running the asylum.
It's not about liberal vs conservative anymore. It's about common sense and human decency. If you can't have common sense and human decency live side by side with your policies, then sorry - I'm going to have go with the party whose policies I don't necessarily agree with all the time. Because at least they're not teaching my kids bigotry, intolerance, and fear-mongering.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
The Tea Party seems almost nonexistent, they have become the Trump Party. You just don't see the tea party stuff as much as in the last cycles.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.
God dammit.
God dammit.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Welcome to your nightmare.El Guapo wrote:Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.
God dammit.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
My son is currently hooked on five nights.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
THIS.El Guapo wrote:Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.
God dammit.
I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.* Trump truly is running the ultimate zombie campaign -- things that would prove fatal to any other candidate are merely flesh wounds to him, and he and his campaign keep picking themselves up and lumbering forward. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.
*I guess I'm just completely out-of-touch with a large segment of the electorate.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
It isn't so much that the other horse is doing so well as that yours is a nag. Just sayin, Bernie would be mopping the floor with Trump, hell so would Martin O'Malley.
You picked your horse now ride her.
You picked your horse now ride her.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
As I wrote in the other thread, I disagree. There was no serious contender on the dems side. Sanders was no Obama.Rip wrote:It isn't so much that the other horse is doing so well as that yours is a nag. Just sayin, Bernie would be mopping the floor with Trump, hell so would Martin O'Malley.
You picked your horse now ride her.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Louis C.K. on "Conan":
"We need just a tough bitch mother who nobody likes," he concluded. "If you vote for Hillary, you're a grownup. If you vote for Trump, you're a sucker. If you don't vote for anybody, you're an asshole."
I thought that was pretty funny.
"We need just a tough bitch mother who nobody likes," he concluded. "If you vote for Hillary, you're a grownup. If you vote for Trump, you're a sucker. If you don't vote for anybody, you're an asshole."
I thought that was pretty funny.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.Dogstar wrote: THIS.
I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Pretty much this. On the one hand it's heartening that direct exposure to Trump clearly turns voters off. The problem is that they drift back after that's over. It's also why I suspect the pro-Trump FBI faction waited until now to start openly aiding Trump.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.Dogstar wrote: THIS.
I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*
I wish cable news would rebroadcast the debates over the weekend.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I think Trump got the memo. He's been relatively calm the last week or so. No twitter flare-ups, just normal insanity at his rallies and that's it. He's wisely letting Clinton get most of the news coverage.El Guapo wrote:Pretty much this. On the one hand it's heartening that direct exposure to Trump clearly turns voters off. The problem is that they drift back after that's over. It's also why I suspect the pro-Trump FBI faction waited until now to start openly aiding Trump.Ralph-Wiggum wrote:Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.Dogstar wrote: THIS.
I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*
I wish cable news would rebroadcast the debates over the weekend.
I still think she wins by 4-6 points, but he probably could have pulled it off if he just stayed out of the limelight the whole campaign and made an attempt to be half-way human in the debates.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
That's the spirit!El Guapo wrote:Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
The thing is that the Republican establishment is going to get 90%+ of their wish list. The shit sandwich will be mostly served to everyone else (though I am sure some Republicans will get destroyed as well).YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
You want this, don't you. The hate is swelling in you now. Give in to your anger. With each passing moment you make yourself more my servant.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Who let the Prince of Darkness out of the basement, people? I mean, really, it's locked for a reason.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Ditto. I'd prefer we set up something where Rip get spanked with a switch every time Drumpf does something mindnumbingly nihilistic and/or detrimental to the US's foreign or domestic policies.YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
If we can't agree on what's detrimental, we can review how many Republicans are against it. If the majority of dems are against it and at least two handfuls of Reps are against it, it's detrimental.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I hope you're using Trump's hands to measure a "handful".GreenGoo wrote: If the majority of dems are against it and at least two handfuls of Reps are against it, it's detrimental.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
If you want to see me getting spanked you are going to need to buy the Pay-Per-View.GreenGoo wrote:I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
So you are saying I should look into employment with one of the bigger banks soon?Isgrimnur wrote:Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.
I am fined with the megacorps and the domed cities as long as I get broadband and HD.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Why would Trump help the megacorps, they are all Clintonites?
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
In that case, I would look at Comcast, Charter, AT&T, or Verizon. After all, they already have construction expertise.coopasonic wrote:So you are saying I should look into employment with one of the bigger banks soon?Isgrimnur wrote:Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.
I am fined with the megacorps and the domed cities as long as I get broadband and HD.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
It's enough that it happens. I don't need to see it.Rip wrote:If you want to see me getting spanked you are going to need to buy the Pay-Per-View.GreenGoo wrote:I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.
- Captain Caveman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Is this some sort of preemptive, self-protective defense mechanism on your part just in case the unimaginable happens? Because right now it kind of flies in the face of the available empirical evidence. She's leading in the polls, and though they do seem to have tightened slightly, she has so many more paths to a victory in the electoral college than Trump, and polling has her ahead in the states that she needs for 270 with room to spare. RIght now, most aggregators have her at 270+ before getting to toss-ups. Plus, other factors favor her: her GOTV effort, historical under-polling of Dem-leaners (particularly Latinos), her cash advantage in the remaining days, etc... these all lead to her still being the strong favorite.El Guapo wrote:Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.
I guess these indicators could be off, and things can still change (though the race really has been pretty stable), so it's not an absolute slam-dunk, but I'm still feeling pretty confident. It is disappointing that the margin will likely be smaller than I would have hoped or expected, and this might have down-ballot consequences, but I'm not gonna lie-- I will breathe a huge sigh of relief a week from today if I finally know definitively that Trump won't be president regardless of the outcome the down-ballot races.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Tightened slightly? His odds of winning have doubled in the past 2 weeks according to 538, from about 15% to 30%. That's not a comfortable margin when on the brink of national Armageddon, if you ask me.
- Captain Caveman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Those aren't the polls. Those are 538's outcome estimates based upon much smaller tightening in the polls. It is by far the most sensitive model out there... others (NY Times Upshot, Sam Wang at Princeton, etc) don't have the odds nearly as high.Carpet_pissr wrote:Tightened slightly? His odds of winning have doubled in the past 2 weeks according to 538, from about 15% to 30%. That's not a comfortable margin when on the brink of national Armageddon, if you ask me.
But I get it. With the stakes so incredibly high given the nature of the candidate on the other side, any improvement in the chances he can win is really, really uncomfortable... but the absolute chance that he actually wins is still improbable though definitely possible.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Plus, the race is going to be upended any day now when Trump's sex tape finally leaks.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I guess I'll take this, if that's the best you can do. Still, I long for the heady confidence of two weeks ago, when it was seemingly "no way in hell".Captain Caveman wrote: the absolute chance that he actually wins is still improbable though definitely possible.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
It is frightening how steep the trendline is in the election forecast history chart.
Frightening.
Frightening.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
The frustration at this point is deep enough that I almost want the same, just to let the idgits see first hand what they've refused to believe all along.YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
Then I realize that my kids also live in this country.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
and state, It would appear Bayh will get sucked into the toilet by all this as well.Blackhawk wrote:The frustration at this point is deep enough that I almost want the same, just to let the idgits see first hand what they've refused to believe all along.YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
Then I realize that my kids also live in this country.