Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?

[El Guapo]

Final early vote count in NV indicates democrats beat 2012 turnout advantage. Ralston is expecting a big win for democrats statewide (fingers crossed).

And FYI: I think I saw Nate Silver mention that if NV goes for Clinton, his model reduces Trumps chances to about 11%.

Yeah IIRC in simulations by 538 NV is on I think 95% of Trump win maps.

[Newcastle]

For all of those who need up to date info on the elections...here's a solid link. It's to Politico's playbook page. Updated throughout the day with meaningful info on the election (i think so at least; just found it yesterday). Can find the link via politico's main page for the next few days as well.

Here's Saturday's:

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/playb ... ood-217247

[Zarathud]

I think we're going to see the pols underestimated (1) Latino turnout and (2) women voters. Both will turn out for Hillary due to their disgust with Trump.

[RunningMn9]

Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?

[Captain Caveman]

Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?

Except polls underestimated the Dem's strengths then... Obama outperformed the polling average by about 3% points. Most analysis for why this happened had to do with populations that polls routinely underestimated or missed, Latinos chief amoung them. That's the rationale for why the polls might be off in a similar direction this year. It's less probable that polls have been missing old white people all this time, though some have argued that there is a huge group of "shy Trump" voters (i.e., those who won't admit it to the pollsters or low propensity voters how don't make it pass likely voter screens) that might lead Trump to victory, but apparently there's no evidence for that so far in the early vote totals.

[Holman]

In the past couple of days we've learned that Latinos and women are outperforming expectations in early voting--the same expectations that produce numbers from poll results. That gives some reason to believe that polls might be undermodeling them.

[RunningMn9]

I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.

[Captain Caveman]

I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.

This is a fair and reasonable approach given the stakes.

[Defiant]

Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?

From what I understand, early voting (In NV and FL) have been showing many more first time or infrequent Latino voters, which wouldn't make it through some of the likely voter models.

Whether this is true in other states, I dunno, but those would be the likeliest states where it would matter (battleground states with a high Hispanic population).

[Zarathud]

I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.

This is a fair and reasonable approach given the stakes.

And the Cubs did just win the World Series.

[Defiant]

Final early vote count in NV indicates democrats beat 2012 turnout advantage. Ralston is expecting a big win for democrats statewide (fingers crossed).

And FYI: I think I saw Nate Silver mention that if NV goes for Clinton, his model reduces Trumps chances to about 11%.

Depends on whether Clinton winning in NV means she's outperforming her numbers elsewhere or not.

In 2.6 percent of our model’s simulations, Nevada goes to Trump and Clinton loses the Electoral College but would have won it if she had won Nevada. So if we give Clinton Nevada, her chances of winning the Electoral College increase from 65.5 percent to 68.1 percent. That’s not nothing, but it’s not much, either.

In the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast, which assumes that if one state’s polls miss then an polling error in that direction is more likely to occur in other states too, Clinton wins 88 percent of the time with a victory in Nevada. That’s obviously a big difference and why the early vote numbers coming out of Nevada could mean a lot.

link

[Carpet_pissr]

some have argued that there is a huge group of "shy Trump" voters (i.e., those who won't admit it to the pollsters

I have a terrible feeling this is true, only based on anecdotal evidence. And if that's the case, then we deserve our pending shitbed to lay in.

[mori]

One step closer to ending this electing an unelectable candidate because the other choice is just more unelectable.

Have you even seen the third party candidates this time?

Johnson has not proven to be a good candidate, but compared to the other clowns, he looks pretty damn awesome.

[mori]

What is up with this round of protectionism in campaign adds? If you are for free trade agreements, you are anti-American. I don't get it. Obviously these people have never played a game with trade policy involved .

[RunningMn9]

What is up with this round of protectionism in campaign adds? If you are for free trade agreements, you are anti-American. I don't get it. Obviously these people have never played a game with trade policy involved .

There are a lot of people that are hurt by free trade agreements. They vote.

[Isgrimnur]

Futures are up:

U.S. futures jumped on their open on Sunday night, with the e-mini Dow futures climbing 220 points after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) again cleared Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over her use of a private server.

Dow futures quickly trimmed their initial rise to traded up 196 points, or 1.1 percent, at 18,001 as of 7:24 p.m. ET. S&P 500 futures were up 25 points, or 1.2 percent, at 2,105, while Nasdaq e-mini futures gained 64 points, or 1.4 percent, to 4,721.

The Mexican peso, which has acted as a barometer of the markets' perception of a likely Donald Trump victory, strengthened to reach 18.59 against the dollar after the FBI's announcement, up from levels near 19.50 in the previous week.

"The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso, the two benchmarks for the election due to their close geographic and economic ties with the US, gained strength as a Clinton White House becomes a symbol for continental trade and prosperity," Anthony Darvall, chief market strategist at easyMarkets, said in a note.

[Newcastle]

From Politico's playbook


Again stressing the importance of a ground game:

STAT DU JOUR -- Over this last weekend, volunteers for Hillary Clinton’s campaign knocked on 6.2 million doors and made 8.1 million phone calls to voters. From the beginning of the early vote period in September until Friday, the Clinton campaign made 45 million direct contacts to voters, either through door knocking or phone calls.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I got two calls asking if I would canvas for Clinton. Unfortunately (fortunately?), I had to spend the weekend moving back in to my place. Also, in my area, canvasing for Clinton is likely to get you shot...

[The Meal]

I'll believe it Wed morning.

Wednesday morning. That's rich.

[Carpet_pissr]

Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.

I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

[RunningMn9]

Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

Not long, but I live in a tiny town.

[LordMortis]

Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

Not long, but I live in a tiny town.

NSFRM9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A7oi_8p-O8

[El Guapo]

Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.

Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

For regular voting at my current polling place I have never had to wait in line (for elections starting in 2010). At early voting last week (first time MA has had early voting), I waited about an hour and 10 minutes. I don't know anything about SC voting lines, but in general the wait will vary bigly by polling location. I assume that the South Carolina GOP isn't dying to have minorities vote, so it may depend on your neighborhood.

For what it's worth the general rule seems to be that if you're in line by the time the polls close, you get to vote (that's why a Vegas area polling location wound up staying open past 10 pm, which got some national attention). I would plan on checking out the situation morning or mid-day if you can, and if there are long lines then go in the evening if you can wait more or less indefinitely.

Side note: not sure if this has been posted already in one of the election threads, but Cincinnati had an early voting line that was over 4,000 people long yesterday.

[The Meal]

I've waited as long as 45 minutes.

[LordMortis]

I'll drive by at 07:00ish and make a judgement call. The horrid line before work is always way better than the more horrid line after work that is then also compounded by me being exhausted.

One day I will see what the lunch line is like...

[Alefroth]

There were 4 cars in line at the drive-up ballot drop-off yesterday. I've never seen that before.

[LordMortis]

In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?

I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?

[gilraen]

I worked a polling place on election day in 2004 in Boulder, CO - the "People's Republic of Boulder", liberal bastion of the entire mountain West. Technically you're supposed to have at least one Democrat and Republican staffing any polling place during an election, but in Boulder, they literally could not find a Republican to do it, so we only had Democrats staffing it. It wasn't enough to win CO for Kerry that year, but the line started forming around 7am and wrapped around the building non-stop for the next 12 hours. I was glad I wasn't in it. It was all paper ballots - no voting machines, and some people asked if they could just fill out their ballot on the window sill or on their knee, instead of waiting for a voting booth to free up, they said they didn't care about secrecy of the ballot and if anyone was looking over their shoulder, they had nothing to hide

[El Guapo]

In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?

I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?

Partly this is tradition and inertia, and partly it's that the idea of voting being convenient is also now controversial, because helping people vote is not always beneficial to the political interests of certain incumbents.

[The Meal]

In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?

I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?

I didn't understand Colorado's prohibition for taking a photo of your completed ballot until I saw the explanation about selling your vote to folks willing to pay. Maybe this applies to your hypothetical situations as well? Doesn't make complete sense as all registered voters in the state received mail-in ballots this year, which would make confirming your votes rather easy.

[El Guapo]

In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?

I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?

I didn't understand Colorado's prohibition for taking a photo of your completed ballot until I saw the explanation about selling your vote to folks willing to pay. Maybe this applies to your hypothetical situations as well? Doesn't make complete sense as all registered voters in the state received mail-in ballots this year, which would make confirming your votes rather easy.

Not really. There would have to be some mechanism for getting a second ballot (in case your first ballot was lost / destroyed). And once that exists it would be easy to show someone a conforming ballot, but then to actually mail a different ballot.

[Smoove_B]

Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

Not long, but I live in a tiny town.

NSFRM9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A7oi_8p-O8

You have no idea how perfect that song is.

[Defiant]

Meanwhile, my mind went to...

[Isgrimnur]

Here you go.

[Defiant]

In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?

I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?

In large part because voting is decided at the state level. But yes, there should be more of a push to allow for early voting, everywhere and for there to be enough polling locations and/or polling workers so that we don't see crazy long lines.

[Defiant]

I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

Here's the median wait line per state in 2012:



I'm surprised there aren't more swing states (which probably have some of the highest turnout) at the top. I would imagine other factors that might play in is if your state doesn't want to spend a lot of money on voting, doesn't have early voting, if they've cut down on polling sites, etc.

[Skinypupy]

Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.

I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?

In 2012, I arrived about 30 minutes before the polls opened and was probably around 50th or so in line. By the time I got through voting, the line went around the building (a large LDS church) twice. Had to be at least 2 hours.

[Kraken]

Surprised to see MA at the top of the wait list. I've never waited more than 5 minutes on election day. I waited 15 minutes to early vote this year, but that's only because there were fewer polling places open.

[Rip]

[Defiant]