Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:51 pm

wrapping up with the first post in this thread, from four years ago.

tgb wrote:Bachman/Trump vs. Clinton/Clinton

actually, go back and read the whole first page of this thread and muse upon how you've spent your last 1400+ days

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 12:03 am

Rip wrote:It seems Cruz gets more support on drudge than at CPAC.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky resoundingly won the straw poll at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference, cementing his status as among the favorites to capture the next Republican presidential nomination.
Paul captured 31% of the vote in the survey of CPAC attendees as to whom they would pick for president. It is the second straight such win for the Kentucky senator, who is the son of libertarian icon and former Rep. Ron Paul.
The next closest contender was Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 11%.
The top six was rounded out by neurosurgeon turned conservative firebrand Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/08/politics/ ... ?hpt=hp_t2

Seems Santorum did better there as well.

Carson? That is shocking. Makes me wonder if heand Walker are the source for much of the other vote on Drudge.

Drudges full list and current vote BTW with the count now closing on 100K.

JEB BUSH 6.28%
CHRIS CHRISTIE 4.94%
TED CRUZ 29.27%
MIKE HUCKABEE 3.67%
BOBBY JINDAL 2.95%
SARAH PALIN 4.96%
RAND PAUL 30.13%
RICK PERRY 4.75%
PAUL RYAN 3.58%
RICK SANTORUM 0.87%
DONALD TRUMP 1.83%
OTHER 6.77%

Trump with twice the vote of Santorum that is interesting.

isn't it just!

Captain Caveman wrote:
Holman wrote:
The article goes on to list the state of play. Right now the admitted debaters would be:

Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Donald Trump
Rick Perry
Please, please, please let Donald Trump make the cut.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 8:11 am

My first non-jokey post in this thread:

YellowKing wrote:It's ironic that the people most concerned about religious extremism are the religious extremists.

I'm just done with the GOP. Until they can serve up someone who is not batshit insane, I'm done. That party has completely and utterly lost its way, and the inmates are running the asylum.

It's not about liberal vs conservative anymore. It's about common sense and human decency. If you can't have common sense and human decency live side by side with your policies, then sorry - I'm going to have go with the party whose policies I don't necessarily agree with all the time. Because at least they're not teaching my kids bigotry, intolerance, and fear-mongering.

So yeah, I guess the bitterness had already set in.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:45 am

The Tea Party seems almost nonexistent, they have become the Trump Party. You just don't see the tea party stuff as much as in the last cycles.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:50 pm

Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.

God dammit.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:00 pm

El Guapo wrote:Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.

God dammit.

Welcome to your nightmare.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:08 pm

My son is currently hooked on five nights.

Dogstar · Post by **Dogstar** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:36 pm

El Guapo wrote:Man, this is fucking terrifying. Clinton's lead is probably 3-4 points right now. Trump could plausibly gain 1-2 points before election day, given the current race dynamic, what with a significant faction in the FBI openly aiding Trump and the typically credulous media happy to report whatever trivial fucking bullshit e-mail innuendo Wikileaks / FBI / Trump sources want to put out there.

God dammit.

THIS.

I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.* Trump truly is running the ultimate zombie campaign -- things that would prove fatal to any other candidate are merely flesh wounds to him, and he and his campaign keep picking themselves up and lumbering forward. I don't think we've ever seen anything like it.

*I guess I'm just completely out-of-touch with a large segment of the electorate.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:43 pm

It isn't so much that the other horse is doing so well as that yours is a nag. Just sayin, Bernie would be mopping the floor with Trump, hell so would Martin O'Malley.

You picked your horse now ride her.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:34 am

Rip wrote:It isn't so much that the other horse is doing so well as that yours is a nag. Just sayin, Bernie would be mopping the floor with Trump, hell so would Martin O'Malley.

You picked your horse now ride her.

As I wrote in the other thread, I disagree. There was no serious contender on the dems side. Sanders was no Obama.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:27 am

Louis C.K. on "Conan":

"We need just a tough bitch mother who nobody likes," he concluded. "If you vote for Hillary, you're a grownup. If you vote for Trump, you're a sucker. If you don't vote for anybody, you're an asshole."

I thought that was pretty funny.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:26 am

Dogstar wrote: THIS.

I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*

Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:29 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Dogstar wrote: THIS.

I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*
Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.

Pretty much this. On the one hand it's heartening that direct exposure to Trump clearly turns voters off. The problem is that they drift back after that's over. It's also why I suspect the pro-Trump FBI faction waited until now to start openly aiding Trump.

I wish cable news would rebroadcast the debates over the weekend.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:48 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/oba ... 97c1c54538

"You can vote and then go get your taco"

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:26 am

El Guapo wrote:
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Dogstar wrote: THIS.

I look back at the polls that after the conventions and even two weeks ago that had her by at least 7 (and in some as many as 12), and the avalanche of mis-deeds and horrific things said by Trump laid at his door, and I don't understand how we are where we are.*
Because the longer we go from a major Trump gaff, the easier it is for borderline voters to rationalize picking him. It's as if people need to be reminded every three days that Trump is a disgusting human being.
Pretty much this. On the one hand it's heartening that direct exposure to Trump clearly turns voters off. The problem is that they drift back after that's over. It's also why I suspect the pro-Trump FBI faction waited until now to start openly aiding Trump.

I wish cable news would rebroadcast the debates over the weekend.

I think Trump got the memo. He's been relatively calm the last week or so. No twitter flare-ups, just normal insanity at his rallies and that's it. He's wisely letting Clinton get most of the news coverage.

I still think she wins by 4-6 points, but he probably could have pulled it off if he just stayed out of the limelight the whole campaign and made an attempt to be half-way human in the debates.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:53 pm

Justice Department to North Carolina: Stop Illegally Purging Black Voters From the Rolls.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:21 pm

Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:24 pm

El Guapo wrote:Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.

That's the spirit!

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:34 pm

There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:35 pm

YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.

The thing is that the Republican establishment is going to get 90%+ of their wish list. The shit sandwich will be mostly served to everyone else (though I am sure some Republicans will get destroyed as well).

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:39 pm

Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:44 pm

YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.

You want this, don't you. The hate is swelling in you now. Give in to your anger. With each passing moment you make yourself more my servant.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:45 pm

Who let the Prince of Darkness out of the basement, people? I mean, really, it's locked for a reason.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:50 pm

YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.

Ditto. I'd prefer we set up something where Rip get spanked with a switch every time Drumpf does something mindnumbingly nihilistic and/or detrimental to the US's foreign or domestic policies.

If we can't agree on what's detrimental, we can review how many Republicans are against it. If the majority of dems are against it and at least two handfuls of Reps are against it, it's detrimental.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:51 pm

GreenGoo wrote: If the majority of dems are against it and at least two handfuls of Reps are against it, it's detrimental.

I hope you're using Trump's hands to measure a "handful".

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:53 pm

I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:55 pm

A Black Church Burned in the Name of Trump

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:55 pm

GreenGoo wrote:I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.

If you want to see me getting spanked you are going to need to buy the Pay-Per-View.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:32 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.

So you are saying I should look into employment with one of the bigger banks soon?

I am fined with the megacorps and the domed cities as long as I get broadband and HD.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:36 pm

Why would Trump help the megacorps, they are all Clintonites?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:39 pm

coopasonic wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Yup. I've said it before. Wile I worry about Trump as president, I'm more afraid of an unchecked right-wing legislature running wild with a rubber stamp in the White House, the Supreme Court being packed with conservative justices, and the complete lack of any checks and balances on the system as we descend into a dystopia of megacorps building domed cities.
So you are saying I should look into employment with one of the bigger banks soon?

I am fined with the megacorps and the domed cities as long as I get broadband and HD.

In that case, I would look at Comcast, Charter, AT&T, or Verizon. After all, they already have construction expertise.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:47 pm

Rip wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:I'll let Rip decide who's hands we use. It's his ass that's gonna sting.
If you want to see me getting spanked you are going to need to buy the Pay-Per-View.

It's enough that it happens. I don't need to see it.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 4:59 pm

El Guapo wrote:Between the FBI leaks, Wikileaks, the Republican Congress, voter suppression, and a media overwhemlingly focused on e-mail scandals, I am coming around to the expectation that Trump is a slight favorite to win the election.

Is this some sort of preemptive, self-protective defense mechanism on your part just in case the unimaginable happens? Because right now it kind of flies in the face of the available empirical evidence. She's leading in the polls, and though they do seem to have tightened slightly, she has so many more paths to a victory in the electoral college than Trump, and polling has her ahead in the states that she needs for 270 with room to spare. RIght now, most aggregators have her at 270+ before getting to toss-ups. Plus, other factors favor her: her GOTV effort, historical under-polling of Dem-leaners (particularly Latinos), her cash advantage in the remaining days, etc... these all lead to her still being the strong favorite.

I guess these indicators could be off, and things can still change (though the race really has been pretty stable), so it's not an absolute slam-dunk, but I'm still feeling pretty confident. It is disappointing that the margin will likely be smaller than I would have hoped or expected, and this might have down-ballot consequences, but I'm not gonna lie-- I will breathe a huge sigh of relief a week from today if I finally know definitively that Trump won't be president regardless of the outcome the down-ballot races.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:05 pm

Tightened slightly? His odds of winning have doubled in the past 2 weeks according to 538, from about 15% to 30%. That's not a comfortable margin when on the brink of national Armageddon, if you ask me.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:09 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:Tightened slightly? His odds of winning have doubled in the past 2 weeks according to 538, from about 15% to 30%. That's not a comfortable margin when on the brink of national Armageddon, if you ask me.

Those aren't the polls. Those are 538's outcome estimates based upon much smaller tightening in the polls. It is by far the most sensitive model out there... others (NY Times Upshot, Sam Wang at Princeton, etc) don't have the odds nearly as high.

But I get it. With the stakes so incredibly high given the nature of the candidate on the other side, any improvement in the chances he can win is really, really uncomfortable... but the absolute chance that he actually wins is still improbable though definitely possible.

Captain Caveman · Post by **Captain Caveman** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:21 pm

Plus, the race is going to be upended any day now when Trump's sex tape finally leaks.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:29 pm

Captain Caveman wrote: the absolute chance that he actually wins is still improbable though definitely possible.

I guess I'll take this, if that's the best you can do. Still, I long for the heady confidence of two weeks ago, when it was seemingly "no way in hell".

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:43 pm

It is frightening how steep the trendline is in the election forecast history chart.

Frightening.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:19 pm

YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.

The frustration at this point is deep enough that I almost want the same, just to let the idgits see first hand what they've refused to believe all along.

Then I realize that my kids also live in this country.

Rip · Post by **Rip** » Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:28 pm

Blackhawk wrote:
YellowKing wrote:There's this really deep dark twisted piece of me that wants him to win so I can spend the next four years watching the Republicans eat their own shit sandwich.
The frustration at this point is deep enough that I almost want the same, just to let the idgits see first hand what they've refused to believe all along.

Then I realize that my kids also live in this country.

and state, It would appear Bayh will get sucked into the toilet by all this as well.