Yeah IIRC in simulations by 538 NV is on I think 95% of Trump win maps.Captain Caveman wrote:And FYI: I think I saw Nate Silver mention that if NV goes for Clinton, his model reduces Trumps chances to about 11%.El Guapo wrote:Final early vote count in NV indicates democrats beat 2012 turnout advantage. Ralston is expecting a big win for democrats statewide (fingers crossed).
Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Black Lives Matter.
- Newcastle
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
For all of those who need up to date info on the elections...here's a solid link. It's to Politico's playbook page. Updated throughout the day with meaningful info on the election (i think so at least; just found it yesterday). Can find the link via politico's main page for the next few days as well.
Here's Saturday's:
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/playb ... ood-217247
Here's Saturday's:
http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/playb ... ood-217247
Bayraktar!!!!
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
- Zarathud
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Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I think we're going to see the pols underestimated (1) Latino turnout and (2) women voters. Both will turn out for Hillary due to their disgust with Trump.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
- RunningMn9
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
- Captain Caveman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Except polls underestimated the Dem's strengths then... Obama outperformed the polling average by about 3% points. Most analysis for why this happened had to do with populations that polls routinely underestimated or missed, Latinos chief amoung them. That's the rationale for why the polls might be off in a similar direction this year. It's less probable that polls have been missing old white people all this time, though some have argued that there is a huge group of "shy Trump" voters (i.e., those who won't admit it to the pollsters or low propensity voters how don't make it pass likely voter screens) that might lead Trump to victory, but apparently there's no evidence for that so far in the early vote totals.RunningMn9 wrote:Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?
- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
In the past couple of days we've learned that Latinos and women are outperforming expectations in early voting--the same expectations that produce numbers from poll results. That gives some reason to believe that polls might be undermodeling them.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- RunningMn9
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
- Captain Caveman
- Posts: 11687
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:57 am
Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
This is a fair and reasonable approach given the stakes.RunningMn9 wrote:I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
From what I understand, early voting (In NV and FL) have been showing many more first time or infrequent Latino voters, which wouldn't make it through some of the likely voter models.RunningMn9 wrote:Isn't this all the logic we heard from Romney folks back in 2012, about how the polls were underestimating their strengths?
Whether this is true in other states, I dunno, but those would be the likeliest states where it would matter (battleground states with a high Hispanic population).
- Zarathud
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
And the Cubs did just win the World Series.Captain Caveman wrote:This is a fair and reasonable approach given the stakes.RunningMn9 wrote:I'll believe it Wed morning. Until then I will continue to prepare for the Apocalypse.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
- Defiant
- Posts: 21045
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Depends on whether Clinton winning in NV means she's outperforming her numbers elsewhere or not.Captain Caveman wrote:And FYI: I think I saw Nate Silver mention that if NV goes for Clinton, his model reduces Trumps chances to about 11%.El Guapo wrote:Final early vote count in NV indicates democrats beat 2012 turnout advantage. Ralston is expecting a big win for democrats statewide (fingers crossed).
In 2.6 percent of our model’s simulations, Nevada goes to Trump and Clinton loses the Electoral College but would have won it if she had won Nevada. So if we give Clinton Nevada, her chances of winning the Electoral College increase from 65.5 percent to 68.1 percent. That’s not nothing, but it’s not much, either.
linkIn the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast, which assumes that if one state’s polls miss then an polling error in that direction is more likely to occur in other states too, Clinton wins 88 percent of the time with a victory in Nevada. That’s obviously a big difference and why the early vote numbers coming out of Nevada could mean a lot.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I have a terrible feeling this is true, only based on anecdotal evidence. And if that's the case, then we deserve our pending shitbed to lay in.Captain Caveman wrote:some have argued that there is a huge group of "shy Trump" voters (i.e., those who won't admit it to the pollsters
- mori
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Johnson has not proven to be a good candidate, but compared to the other clowns, he looks pretty damn awesome.Defiant wrote:Have you even seen the third party candidates this time?mori wrote: One step closer to ending this electing an unelectable candidate because the other choice is just more unelectable.
- mori
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
What is up with this round of protectionism in campaign adds? If you are for free trade agreements, you are anti-American. I don't get it. Obviously these people have never played a game with trade policy involved .
- RunningMn9
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
There are a lot of people that are hurt by free trade agreements. They vote.mori wrote:What is up with this round of protectionism in campaign adds? If you are for free trade agreements, you are anti-American. I don't get it. Obviously these people have never played a game with trade policy involved .
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
- Isgrimnur
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- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
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- Contact:
Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Futures are up:
U.S. futures jumped on their open on Sunday night, with the e-mini Dow futures climbing 220 points after the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) again cleared Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over her use of a private server.
Dow futures quickly trimmed their initial rise to traded up 196 points, or 1.1 percent, at 18,001 as of 7:24 p.m. ET. S&P 500 futures were up 25 points, or 1.2 percent, at 2,105, while Nasdaq e-mini futures gained 64 points, or 1.4 percent, to 4,721.
The Mexican peso, which has acted as a barometer of the markets' perception of a likely Donald Trump victory, strengthened to reach 18.59 against the dollar after the FBI's announcement, up from levels near 19.50 in the previous week.
"The Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso, the two benchmarks for the election due to their close geographic and economic ties with the US, gained strength as a Clinton White House becomes a symbol for continental trade and prosperity," Anthony Darvall, chief market strategist at easyMarkets, said in a note.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Newcastle
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
From Politico's playbook
Again stressing the importance of a ground game:
Again stressing the importance of a ground game:
STAT DU JOUR -- Over this last weekend, volunteers for Hillary Clinton’s campaign knocked on 6.2 million doors and made 8.1 million phone calls to voters. From the beginning of the early vote period in September until Friday, the Clinton campaign made 45 million direct contacts to voters, either through door knocking or phone calls.
Bayraktar!!!!
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
- Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I got two calls asking if I would canvas for Clinton. Unfortunately (fortunately?), I had to spend the weekend moving back in to my place. Also, in my area, canvasing for Clinton is likely to get you shot...
Black Lives Matter
- The Meal
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Wednesday morning. That's rich.RunningMn9 wrote:I'll believe it Wed morning.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.
I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
Last edited by Carpet_pissr on Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- RunningMn9
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Not long, but I live in a tiny town.Carpet_pissr wrote:Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
- LordMortis
- Posts: 70222
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm
Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
NSFRM9RunningMn9 wrote:Not long, but I live in a tiny town.Carpet_pissr wrote:Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A7oi_8p-O8
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
For regular voting at my current polling place I have never had to wait in line (for elections starting in 2010). At early voting last week (first time MA has had early voting), I waited about an hour and 10 minutes. I don't know anything about SC voting lines, but in general the wait will vary bigly by polling location. I assume that the South Carolina GOP isn't dying to have minorities vote, so it may depend on your neighborhood.Carpet_pissr wrote:Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.
Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
For what it's worth the general rule seems to be that if you're in line by the time the polls close, you get to vote (that's why a Vegas area polling location wound up staying open past 10 pm, which got some national attention). I would plan on checking out the situation morning or mid-day if you can, and if there are long lines then go in the evening if you can wait more or less indefinitely.
Side note: not sure if this has been posted already in one of the election threads, but Cincinnati had an early voting line that was over 4,000 people long yesterday.
Black Lives Matter.
- The Meal
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I've waited as long as 45 minutes.
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
- LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I'll drive by at 07:00ish and make a judgement call. The horrid line before work is always way better than the more horrid line after work that is then also compounded by me being exhausted.
One day I will see what the lunch line is like...
One day I will see what the lunch line is like...
- Alefroth
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
There were 4 cars in line at the drive-up ballot drop-off yesterday. I've never seen that before.
- LordMortis
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
- gilraen
- Posts: 4321
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- Location: Broomfield, CO
Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I worked a polling place on election day in 2004 in Boulder, CO - the "People's Republic of Boulder", liberal bastion of the entire mountain West. Technically you're supposed to have at least one Democrat and Republican staffing any polling place during an election, but in Boulder, they literally could not find a Republican to do it, so we only had Democrats staffing it. It wasn't enough to win CO for Kerry that year, but the line started forming around 7am and wrapped around the building non-stop for the next 12 hours. I was glad I wasn't in it. It was all paper ballots - no voting machines, and some people asked if they could just fill out their ballot on the window sill or on their knee, instead of waiting for a voting booth to free up, they said they didn't care about secrecy of the ballot and if anyone was looking over their shoulder, they had nothing to hide
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Partly this is tradition and inertia, and partly it's that the idea of voting being convenient is also now controversial, because helping people vote is not always beneficial to the political interests of certain incumbents.LordMortis wrote:In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
Black Lives Matter.
- The Meal
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
I didn't understand Colorado's prohibition for taking a photo of your completed ballot until I saw the explanation about selling your vote to folks willing to pay. Maybe this applies to your hypothetical situations as well? Doesn't make complete sense as all registered voters in the state received mail-in ballots this year, which would make confirming your votes rather easy.LordMortis wrote:In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Not really. There would have to be some mechanism for getting a second ballot (in case your first ballot was lost / destroyed). And once that exists it would be easy to show someone a conforming ballot, but then to actually mail a different ballot.The Meal wrote:I didn't understand Colorado's prohibition for taking a photo of your completed ballot until I saw the explanation about selling your vote to folks willing to pay. Maybe this applies to your hypothetical situations as well? Doesn't make complete sense as all registered voters in the state received mail-in ballots this year, which would make confirming your votes rather easy.LordMortis wrote:In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
Black Lives Matter.
- Smoove_B
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
You have no idea how perfect that song is.LordMortis wrote:NSFRM9RunningMn9 wrote:Not long, but I live in a tiny town.Carpet_pissr wrote:Gah, I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A7oi_8p-O8
Maybe next year, maybe no go
- Defiant
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- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
In large part because voting is decided at the state level. But yes, there should be more of a push to allow for early voting, everywhere and for there to be enough polling locations and/or polling workers so that we don't see crazy long lines.LordMortis wrote:In this day and age why isn't better voting ubiquitous? Like having the option to print the ballot at home, show up at the poll, check your ID, and insert the barcode level easy?
I know some states let anyone do absentee voting. Why isn't that simply available to everyone everywhere?
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Carpet_pissr wrote: I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
Here's the median wait line per state in 2012:
I'm surprised there aren't more swing states (which probably have some of the highest turnout) at the top. I would imagine other factors that might play in is if your state doesn't want to spend a lot of money on voting, doesn't have early voting, if they've cut down on polling sites, etc.
- Skinypupy
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
In 2012, I arrived about 30 minutes before the polls opened and was probably around 50th or so in line. By the time I got through voting, the line went around the building (a large LDS church) twice. Had to be at least 2 hours.Carpet_pissr wrote:Wow, I drove by the early voting (technically, in-person absentee) building here twice today, and the line was ridiculous both times.
I guess I will take my chances and hope my little polling area tomorrow is not swamped. How long do you guys typically wait in line to vote in general elections?
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- Kraken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2016?
Surprised to see MA at the top of the wait list. I've never waited more than 5 minutes on election day. I waited 15 minutes to early vote this year, but that's only because there were fewer polling places open.
- Rip
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- Defiant
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