Political Randomness

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El Guapo
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:56 am I think there were a few more polls than that post scandal, one that had Moore up by 4, another that had him up by 2 and one that had Jones up by 12. (Unless one/some of those is a later result of the same polls)
The Jones +12 poll was the leaked NRSC one, and I think everyone's taking that poll with a grain of salt, since it was a private GOP poll, and it seems very likely to have been part of NRSC efforts to lean on Moore to quit the race. And my understanding is that these are pollers who had polls of the race both before and after the scandal broke (so for example, Change Research wasn't included because their first poll was after the breaking of the scandal).
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

Alefroth wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:06 pm
Enough wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:08 pm
Max Peck wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:01 pm Huh.

Stone appeared to know Franken allegation was coming
Former Trump campaign adviser Roger Stone appeared to know there were sexual misconduct allegations involving Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) hours before they became public.

Stone has been banned from Twitter, but at 1 a.m. on Thursday morning an account connected to him tweeted a quote from the Republican political operative.

"Roger Stone says it's Al Franken's 'time in the barrel'. Franken next in long list of Democrats to be accused of 'grabby' behavior," read the tweet from Enter the Stone Zone.

Enter the Stone Zone is an account that claims to share "political commentary" from Stone.

Hours later, Leeann Tweeden, a KABC-AM news anchor, accused Franken of kissing and groping her without her consent in 2006. Tweeden said the incidents occurred during a USO tour to entertain troops abroad. She also tweeted a photograph of Franken as evidence.

The photo sparked outrage on social media, and Franken apologized for the incident and said he would cooperate with a Senate ethics investigation into the matter.

After Tweeden's account went public, Enter The Stone Zone tweeted again, sharing a Politico report about the allegations.
Not downplaying the accusation here, that photo is ugly. But, this is interesting. I also find it interesting that the woman making the charges is a Trump supporter and Hannity guest. Oh and now conservative radio shock jock anchor Melanie Morgan says that Franken harassed her after a Politically Incorrect episode. He called to argue with her and try to prove her wrong but it does not appear to be sexual at all in nature. One thing that seems clear is we are going to be hearing a lot more allegations involving people in positions of power as operatives start going eye for eye here.
Now that those with a desire to deceive and manipulate have seen how damaging allegations can be, I think things are going to get very ugly. To the detriment as always of women who are the victims of assault and harassment.
Smart piece by Erin Gloria Ryan on how the #MeToo movement could be perverted (as it apparently already has by Franken's second accuser, who teased a harassment story but really only had a public policy disagreement).
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:42 am
Still don't know how this race is likely to play out. Still seems like a coin flip overall, at least for the moment. My gut says that Moore is still going to win this narrowly, because it's Alabama, and they really, really don't want to vote for a democrat.

It also seems like a write-in campaign is unlikely, and that the election's not going to be postponed. I'm also increasingly skeptical that the GOP will expel Moore if he wins.
Moore will win. Rather than expelling him, there will be gestures towards an investigation headed off by Moore's self-righteous semi-apology and assertion that he has already secured God's forgiveness for vaguely defined past mistakes and misunderstandings.

Senator Roy Moore will then hold office until he dies at his desk, furiously masturbating to a bill criminalizing Mosques.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Re: Political Randomness

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I'll believe it when/if it happens.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by El Guapo »

GreenGoo wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:36 pm I'll believe it when/if it happens.
There's enough evidence now to conclude that Jones probably has a narrow lead. However, there's still almost a month until the election, and this is Alabama, and Jones (except for the Fox News poll) hasn't hit 50% yet, so it's far from clear that his narrow lead will remain.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Smoove_B »

I'm not going to yell Conspiracy! yet and put on my tinfoil hat, but someone has been poking around the EXIF data of the Franken photo and posting their findings on the bastion of journalism, Twitter.

I'd need someone that's familiar with EXIF data to comment; I share because it's topical and also because it's pretty interesting that Roger Stone commented it was coming hours before it was ultimately released.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

4. The photo here, if you check the metadata - was taken at 5:19 PM on December 21st.
So - not Christmas Eve. Not at night while sleeping.
This is a weak argument. It was a 36 hour trip home. I'm pretty sure they will be sleeping at random times due to the travel schedule. And calling it Christmas Eve instead of Christmas Eve Eve Eve Eve? Who cares.
The metadata indicates that it was modified on July 1st, 2009 at 10:30 PM.
It sounds like the photo itself wasn't modified, only the EXIF data. Again, who cares? It doesn't change the content of the photo.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by LawBeefaroni »

GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:08 pm
pr0ner wrote: Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:07 pm Keep on digging, GreenGoo.
Lol. go [personal attack]
I know I'm late to the party but come on. You know better than that.

Trolling happens, just move on. Or at least don't take the lazy "FY,A" approach.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Wait--Someone is trying to suggest to Franken that the picture is a fake?

That's just weird. If I'm a high-profile senator and someone publishes a potentially career-destroying picture of me acting lewd, am I going to confess to the action that same day even though I have no memory of doing it?

Is the theory that he was Incepted or something?
I'd need someone that's familiar with EXIF data to comment; I share because it's topical and also because it's pretty interesting that Roger Stone commented it was coming hours before it was ultimately released.
It's certainly weird that Stone seems to have known about it, but that's probably a sign that was shopping around for the best news outlet through which to go public, and someone who knew Stone heard about it.

That she has been so quick to accept Franken's apology as sincere (shifting the topic to #MeToo generally rather than keeping it aimed at destroying him specifically) suggests that she's not part of a conspiracy.
Last edited by Holman on Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Smoove_B »

I don't think people are saying it's photoshopped (yet) - though someone has suggested that the yellow sign in the upper left corner is, possibly placed over a clock.

I think the issue is more that someone has been holding on to this photo (or a version of it) for quite some time, waiting to use it. Sort of "in case of emergency, break glass" type thing.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Holman wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:16 pm Wait--Someone is trying to suggest to Franken that the picture is a fake?

That's just weird. If I'm a high-profile senator and someone publishes a potentially career-destroying picture of me acting lewd, am I going to confess to the action that same day even though I have no memory of doing it?

Is the theory that he was Incepted or something?
I mean, I guess it's *possible* that he didn't really remember doing it, but it seemed like something he could possibly have done, and the photo was convincing enough to Franken. BUT....you know... not really.

The only thing that's suspicious about the whole thing to me is Roger Stone (notorious political dirty trickster) having advance notice. But I assume that he just got leaked that this was breaking soon.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

Smoove_B wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:23 pm I think the issue is more that someone has been holding on to this photo (or a version of it) for quite some time, waiting to use it. Sort of "in case of emergency, break glass" type thing.
They waited 8 years? That's a serious dedication to the long con in today's short news cycle. Again, even if true, who cares? It doesn't change the content of the photo.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Rip »

Also note when looking at times and dates they are travelling across several timezones and probably the date line. Unlikely the camera had an accurate date/time when it was shot. I would think it could be off by anywhere from a few hours to a little over a day. Also when hopping around the globe like that you sleep when tired not at some prescribed time.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Democratic Ohio Supreme Court Justice, who is running for governor, shared details of his sexual exploits with "approximately 50 very attractive females" in an attempt to defend Sen. Al Franken against allegations of sexual harassment.

Uh, thanks?
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Re: Political Randomness

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LA radio station: We tipped off 'news partners' before publishing Franken allegations.

So there's where Roger Stone got his early info.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

White House adviser: No hypocrisy in Trump attacking Franken
Speaking on CNN, Short argued that Franken has acknowledged sexual misconduct and that there is photographic evidence of it. In contrast, Trump has disputed and threatened to sue the women who have accused him of groping and harassment.

“The president has been clear that the allegations [of groping and harassment against him] were not true,” Short said.

Short noted that the president has also apologized for the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape, in which he bragged about grabbing women and having his way with them because of his celebrity status.

“He was apologetic about [the tape] when it surfaced,” Short added. “He apologized to his wife and family and the American people about what he considered locker room behavior. He is not trying to excuse it. That's different than very visual evidence of what Al Franken did. The president is making the case that Al Franken was out condemning Roy Moore and others just a month ago and there is a level of hypocrisy there.”
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Re: Political Randomness

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Moliere wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:39 pm Short noted that the president has also apologized for the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape, in which he bragged about grabbing women and having his way with them because of his celebrity status.

“He was apologetic about [the tape] when it surfaced,” Short added.
He was? When did this happen?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

Skinypupy wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:46 pm
Moliere wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:39 pm Short noted that the president has also apologized for the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape, in which he bragged about grabbing women and having his way with them because of his celebrity status.

“He was apologetic about [the tape] when it surfaced,” Short added.
He was? When did this happen?
Well, sorta. Kinda. Not really.
In his video apology released early Saturday morning, Trump says he's never claimed to be a "perfect person."

“Anyone who knows me knows these words don’t reflect who I am," Trump said.

“I said it, I was wrong and I apologize."

However, in a statement shortly after the video's release, Trump dismissed its importance.

“This was locker room banter, a private conversation that took place many years ago," the GOP presidential nominee says. "Bill Clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course — not even close. I apologize if anyone was offended.”
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Here's apparently the skit Franken performed at that USO show. They don't show the actual kiss in the video though (if that still happened during the show).

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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Alefroth »

Yikes. Starting at 7:00
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

Yeah, let's joke about "overusing the rape room." :shock:
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:42 pm
GreenGoo wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:36 pm I'll believe it when/if it happens.
There's enough evidence now to conclude that Jones probably has a narrow lead. However, there's still almost a month until the election, and this is Alabama, and Jones (except for the Fox News poll) hasn't hit 50% yet, so it's far from clear that his narrow lead will remain.
There's also the question of if these are Likely Voters or Registered Voters they're polling, and even if it is likely voters, how accurate their likely voter models are. What kind of turnout will we see?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

Close races usually come down to party organization and GOTV. I wonder, though, how that applies to a super-high-profile race that's being mobilized by media attention on both sides.

In Alabama, the GOP has all the organization (although perhaps they're not accustomed to having to use it?) and the Dems are basically a skeleton crew. The Jones campaign has specifically requested that the national party not flood the state with volunteers, as this would generate "outside agitator" optics.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Congratulations Republicans, this is the party you built:
"It is not a crime per se to lie to the cops," added Lambert, a Republican. "The main thing here is he was charged with assaulting Ben Jacobs and pled guilty to that."
This is about Greg Gianforte (MT-R) who attacked that Guardian reporter right before the election. Multiple news organizations filed info requests for the investigation and yep it turns out Gianforte totally lied to the cops about being first attacked by Jacobs. This local county attorney asserts that lying to the cops is not a crime, but how about filing a false police report claiming assault by the reporter?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Lying to the cops is absolutely a crime. We know, because the FBI are constantly putting people in jail not for the crime being investigated, but because they said they left the party at 8pm when it was actually 8:35pm.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote: Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:46 pm Lying to the cops is absolutely a crime. We know, because the FBI are constantly putting people in jail not for the crime being investigated, but because they said they left the party at 8pm when it was actually 8:35pm.
The law that makes it a crime to lie to the FBI is a federal law that specifically makes it an offense to lie to federal agents. That particular statute (18 USC Section 1001) doesn't appear to apply to state or local jurisdictions, from what I can see.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by malchior »

What have we learned, children? It is better to lie than to be honest and admit when you are wrong. #MAGA

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Re: Political Randomness

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Having just completed grand jury duty, I can assure you that it’s against the law to lie to the police in the course of their investigation. At least in our jurisdiction. It’s called obstructing an investigation.


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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Rip »

RunningMn9 wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:41 am Having just completed grand jury duty, I can assure you that it’s against the law to lie to the police in the course of their investigation. At least in our jurisdiction. It’s called obstructing an investigation.


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Not really. The lie would need to be relevant to the investigation to be obstructing.

As always though a lot wiser to not answer any questions rather than lying about anything.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Good on them. Gives me hope about the young folk in the country, despite them being Republicans. :wink:
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Skinypupy »

I’m confused, why are Mormons commenting on Moore?

Oh, wait...
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

Donald Trump has withdrawn his support of Moore? I thought he had stayed silent on the whole matter.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I think they probably should have said “expressed concern over and/or withdrawn their support”. Certainly that would’ve been more accurate.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

Bill Clinton: A Reckoning
Feminists saved the 42nd president of the United States in the 1990s. They were on the wrong side of history; is it finally time to make things right?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

Moliere wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:28 pm Bill Clinton: A Reckoning
Feminists saved the 42nd president of the United States in the 1990s. They were on the wrong side of history; is it finally time to make things right?

Where you been? Grifman linked that article 7 pages ago.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

Holman wrote: Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:53 pm Where you been? Grifman linked that article 7 pages ago.
As long as it wasn't on this page.
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Re: Political Randomness

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The are no pages in Tapatalk. You elitist bastards!
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Re: Political Randomness

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... women.html
The new charges are likely to revive the debate over why Democrats defended Clinton during the Monica Lewinsky scandal and why liberals and feminists ignored credible charges of sexual assault against the 42nd president, not only from Paula Jones, but also from Juanita Broaddrick, Kathleen Willey, and others.

'Bill is distraught at the thought of having to testify and defend himself against sex charges again,' said a Democratic Party official who is familiar with the case.

'He hopes his legal team can somehow stop the women from filing charges and drag him through the mud.'

The source added that Hillary Clinton is furious with her husband for getting entangled in yet another sexual scandal.
She reportedly offered to hire private detectives to dig up dirt on the women, but Bill Clinton's attorneys persuaded her to not interfere.

'In the past Hillary had a team of detectives that managed to silence a number of women in Little Rock who had complaints about Bill's unwanted sexual advances,' said the source.
'But now Hillary admits there's a different atmosphere in our culture about sexual harassment and it's not possible to intimidate women into silence about charges once they make up their mind to speak up.

'Hillary wants to remain in the public eye as a leader of the resistance to Donald Trump and play a major role in politics for years to come, including maybe even running for president again in 2020,' the source continued.

'She's afraid this latest scandal could destroy the Clinton legacy and torpedo her plans.

'The relationship between Bill and Hillary has been more of a business relationship for a number of years, except when it comes to their daughter and grandchildren.

'They haven't lived as man and wife for a number of years, mostly due to Bill's running around with other women.
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