Political Randomness

[El Guapo]

I wonder where the ACTUAL conservatives in this country will go now they have no party?

Well there has been some movement towards registering as Independents, as those numbers have increased significantly since Trump took office. Unfortunately, I think the lion's share of actual conservatives have just decided to drink the Kool-Aid and join the cult. I know a ton of people who I thought were old-fashioned fiscal conservatives who would "never in a million years" vote for Trump now applauding everything he does. Oh, they may occasionally grumble at a controversial tweet, but for all intents and purposes they're in lockstep.

Max Boot: If this is what conservatism has become, count me out.

I think a lot of this is happening - sane / thinking / moderate conservatives are going to be steadily leaving (or getting expelled) from the GOP coalition.

I am excited for the mind-bending site of the Weekly Standard endorsing Sanders for president in 2020, though.

[Pyperkub]

I wonder where the ACTUAL conservatives in this country will go now they have no party?

Well there has been some movement towards registering as Independents, as those numbers have increased significantly since Trump took office. Unfortunately, I think the lion's share of actual conservatives have just decided to drink the Kool-Aid and join the cult. I know a ton of people who I thought were old-fashioned fiscal conservatives who would "never in a million years" vote for Trump now applauding everything he does. Oh, they may occasionally grumble at a controversial tweet, but for all intents and purposes they're in lockstep.

I think a lot of these alleged "actual" conservatives have drunk the kool-aid too. Witness the ever-growing attacks on the "MSM" (which conveniently ignores Fox) because the MSM doesn't buy into the Tea Party Identity politics. There has been a direct effect (not just a correlation, but actual causation) in this new phenomena, and it has led to a split where we can't argue about solutions to problems, because the facts have become different, and perverted as conspiracy-theory gossip has become mainstream in 90% of the "conservative" ideology.

On the other hand, I also believe that the "Actual" conservatives have been hooked into this since Goldwater and the Southern Democrat flip to Republican identity politics in the wake of the Civil Rights movement. The conservative coalition of strong defense and tax cutting/small government was too small to get real, long-term majorities without Religious conservatives (even in Reagan's era) and dog-whistle identity politics after most of the core financial issues were solved with the destruction of Unions and tax cuts. Especially as Clinton moved the Democrats to a more business-friendly stance for the first time since Kennedy/LBJ. However, I must say that the Clinton era and his initial election are far more detailed than that - but he defintely co-opted a lot of the actual fiscal conservatism of the time, which Obama continued in a huge break with liberal politics up until then. Democrats stopped just calling for more taxes and services and actually became the party of fiscal restraint, IMHO. Liberal policies were re-evaluated for their effects on the economy far more than previously, and far more market based approaches were pursued, at least in the mainstream.

As an example, look at how Governor Moonbeam in CA, has become the guy who has fixed the state's finances and established a rainy day fund for downturns to keep CA's budget on a more sustainable path than previous Democrats in Sacramento.

[hepcat]

Yesterday the CPAC crowd booed when citizenship naturalization ceremonies were mentioned. They literally booed foreigners becoming American citizens.

Soooo....about Melania. Ummm....

[coopasonic]

Have you *seen* the way she looks at our dear leader when he isn't looking? Boo to her too!

[El Guapo]

I'm sure that Trump would be devastated if he had no choice but to give up Melania in favor of a younger American-born wife.

[hepcat]

I wonder if her desire to hang onto that Trump cash is strong enough to override her natural human instinct to try to escape when something heavy is on top of you?

[El Guapo]

I hope that she's been collecting Kompromat during her time with Trump.

[hepcat]

Let's be honest. I'd be more surprised to find out that even one of his immediate family members or close friends lacked any compromising information on the guy.

Trump: I don't wanna watch the Avengers movie tonight. Put on the gorilla channel!

Barron: Do I have to call my lawyer and have him release the unedited tape of you trying to figure out a revolving door for 20 minutes?

Trump: Fine. But you can't have any of my KFC.

Barron: ...or the video of you arguing with a mime that you kept calling Casper?

Trump: ...here's a leg. And for your information, that ghost was being a dick!

[coopasonic]

Trump: Fine. But you can't have any of my KFC.

Jesus, It's bad enough that he puts ketchup on his steak, but he eats KFC too!?

[hepcat]

with a fork, no less.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

Discriminating against someone on the basis of sexual orientation is prohibited under federal civil rights law, a federal appeals court ruled Monday as it sided with a gay skydiving instructor who was fired from his job after discussing his sexuality with a client.

The decision from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit offers expanded protections for LGBT people and marks a significant loss for President Trump’s Justice Department, which had filed a brief arguing Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 did not cover sexual orientation discrimination.

But the state of the law is still murky, as federal circuits in other parts of the country have issued mixed opinions. The ruling from the 2nd Circuit, based in Manhattan, could be appealed to the Supreme Court.
...
As the case made its way through court, the legal doctrine over sexual discrimination evolved. In 2015, for example, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ruled for the first time that Title VII should cover sexual orientation discrimination. After that, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit similarly recognized that principle, although the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit did not.
...
But the 2nd Circuit disagreed. Chief Judge Robert A. Katzmann, writing for the majority, wrote that “sexual orientation discrimination is motivated, at least in part, by sex and is thus a subset of sex discrimination,” and therefore covered by Title VII.

“To the extent that our prior precedents held otherwise, they are overruled,” Katzmann wrote.

Eight judges joined Katzmann’s opinion, while three filed dissents.

[Isgrimnur]

Erdogan

ISTANBUL — From a stage where he led a raucous rally exhorting Turks to support their soldiers in Syria, the Turkish president spotted a 6-year-old girl cadet in the crowd, dressed in military-style camouflage and wearing a maroon beret. Her lips trembling, she stood ramrod-straight as she gave a salute.

Beckoned by the president, the girl was lifted into the air and toward the stage to meet with him. But she looked hesitant, and eventually began crying, as the president went on to say that she would be honored if she were killed in combat.
...
“Her Turkish flag is in her pocket,” Mr. Erdogan proclaimed after calling Amine onstage. “If she becomes a martyr, God willing, she will be wrapped with it,” he said. “She is ready for everything, aren’t you?”

[LordMortis]

I feel ill reading that.

[Remus West]

I feel ill reading that.

+1 doesn't cover it well enough

[El Guapo]

Erdogan is a terrible, terrible person. Destroyed a century-old democracy.

[GreenGoo]

Erdogan is a terrible, terrible person. Destroyed a century-old democracy.

Yep, and Drumpf's administration has been toying with the idea of handing over Fethullah Gülen because Flynn (I think it was Flynn) was in tight with the Turks. Erdogan wants to execute him because he believes all resistance to his rule flows from Gulen. Well, that's what he says. He just wants to kill Gulen for opposing him at one time in the past.

Under his rule Germany and Turkey got into it a few times, and it's still ongoing.

[Rip]

It is a little weird to see you guys jump in on my Turkey hating.

Kurds have always been good friends to us but we always take Turkey's side because they are bigger and more powerful.

[Holman]

Erdogan is a terrible, terrible person. Destroyed a century-old democracy.

And he destroyed it in a part of the world where democracy is most imperiled. Under different leadership, Turkey could have led the way.

[Isgrimnur]

New Hampshire

Democrat Phil Spagnuolo won a special election in New Hampshire's Belknap County District 3 on Tuesday night 968-841 (54%-46%). It is the 38th state legislative flip from Democrat to Republican since President Trump's inauguration. The contest for this state House race pitted Spagnuolo, a substance abuse recovery coach, against Republican Les Cartier, a former employee at the state fire marshal's office. The seat was left open after the death of Republican State Rep. Donald Flanders last September. Donald Trump won the district by a sizable 54-41 margin in 2016, four years after Barack Obama carried it by just one point, 50-49.

[Combustible Lemur]

It is a little weird to see you guys jump in on my Turkey hating.

Kurds have always been good friends to us but we always take Turkey's side because they are bigger and more powerful.

Isn't ruthless pragmatism and religious based nations the calling card of conservatism?

Stop it! You're making me all misty, you lefty sno-cone.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Blackhawk]

New Hampshire

Democrat Phil Spagnuolo won [...] 38th state legislative flip from Democrat to Republican

Wait, what?

[Isgrimnur]

[sic]

Two Democrats won state legislative contests on Tuesday night, flipping the seats from Republican hands and marking the 38th and 39th legislative flips since President Trump's inauguration. Democrats have now also flipped six this year alone.

Democrat Phil Spagnuolo won a special election in New Hampshire's Belknap County District 3 on Tuesday night 968-841 (54%-46%).
...
Democrat Phil Young won a contest in Connecticut's state House District 120 as well.

The race in House District 120 was a result of a vacancy when former State Rep. Laura Hoydick, a Republican, resigned after becoming mayor of Stratford. It pitted Young against Republican Bill Cabral, both of whom were former Town Council members. In the 2016 presidential election, the district voted for Hillary Clinton by a small margin 49-47, despite the fact that she beat President Trump statewide by nearly 14 points.

[gilraen]

A much lower percentage of Utah Republicans voted for Trump than elsewhere, although still most of them.

Bottom line being that there's a much stronger coalition for anti-Trump Republicanism in Utah than elsewhere (combining anti-Trump Republicans with independents and moderate democrats), so being hostile to Trump is at least less of a political difficulty for Senator Romney than other Republican senators. Will that be enough, who knows.

So how screwed up is Utah GOP, really?

If some GOP candidates gather signatures to get on the ballot this year, they may well be kicked out of the Utah Republican Party via a bylaw change adopted Saturday over the objections of party chairman Rob Anderson.

And that’s not all.

After a “special” meeting of the party’s Central Committee Saturday, Rob Anderson says CC members new bylaw bifurcates the allowed candidate-to-ballot routes, one set of rules for U.S. House districts 1st and 2nd, and another set of rules for House districts 3rd and 4th.

“I think that violates both state law (SB54) and the U.S. Constitution’s” equal protection rights, said Anderson.

But after Stewart Peay, the Snell & Wilmer attorney whom Anderson has had as the party’s legal counsel said so, the CC members in attendance fired him.

That’s right.

The Utah Republican Party doesn’t have an attorney.

Since the last-minute clause limited the new bylaw to the 1st and 2nd House district, this wouldn't affect Romney's candidacy, but apparently the whole thing was planned as an attempt to start instituting "purity tests" that would have affected up to 50 potential candidates.

[Skinypupy]

That is not the least bit shocking.

[El Guapo]

Well, GOP fuck-ups are the only plausible route to democratic victories in Utah in the short term, so...go nuts with that stuff I guess.

[El Guapo]

[GreenGoo]

It is a little weird to see you guys jump in on my Turkey hating.

It's less Turkey hate and more Erdogan hate. He's an obvious dictator who slaughter thousands of his own people when they rebelled. He is constantly stirring shit up on the international stage and happily used an archaic German law to have Germany lock up one of their own comedians who made fun of Erdogan (this is on Germany too).

I'm not saying Turkey is awesome without Erdogan, but right now, he's the problem.

[El Guapo]

It is a little weird to see you guys jump in on my Turkey hating.

It's less Turkey hate and more Erdogan hate. He's an obvious dictator who slaughter thousands of his own people when they rebelled. He is constantly stirring shit up on the international stage and happily used an archaic German law to have Germany lock up one of their own comedians who made fun of Erdogan (this is on Germany too).

I'm not saying Turkey is awesome without Erdogan, but right now, he's the problem.

Also, we should absolutely be doing what we can to help the Kurds - they really do deserve their own state. Pre-Erdogan, when Turkey was a reliable and important democratic U.S. ally, the calculus was a little more complicated. But one side effect of Turkey going into the shitter is that that minus factor is now gone. Though now Iraq complicates things a bit.

Of course, Trump saying that Erdogan is one of the world leaders he most admires probably means that won't happen. Also yet another indicator that Trump is a huge asshole.

[LordMortis]

Also, we should absolutely be doing what we can to help the Kurds

I swear that's been a constant since Dessert Storm.

[El Guapo]

Also, we should absolutely be doing what we can to help the Kurds

I swear that's been a constant since Dessert Storm.

Oh man, dessert storm sounds amazing.

[Rip]

Also, we should absolutely be doing what we can to help the Kurds

I swear that's been a constant since Dessert Storm.

Oh man, dessert storm sounds amazing.

It is but no matter how long you sit at the table and eat you will never reach the bottom of the bowl.

The last dessert you will ever need.

[Unagi]

it's the mother of all desserts....

[Max Peck]

It's a good thing that the West has a steady hand at the tiller, to navigate such tumultuous times.

Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons

Russia has developed a new array of nuclear weapons that are invincible, according to President Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin made the revelation as he laid out his key policies for a fourth presidential term, ahead of an election he is expected to win in 17 days' time.

The weapons he showcased included a cruise missile that he said can "reach anywhere in the world".

Using video presentations, he said the missile could not be stopped by the US shield in Europe and Asia.

It was "a low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile with a nuclear payload with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence".

Another weapon he discussed was a submarine launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

During the two-hour televised speech to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament, he encouraged Russians to suggest names for the two systems. He argued that Russia had reacted after years of pleading with the US not to break away from anti-missile treaties.

If these toys actually exist, they would make for a super fun first strike capability. Cool beans!

[tjg_marantz]

It's a good thing that the West has a steady hand at the tiller, to navigate such tumultuous times.

Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons

Russia has developed a new array of nuclear weapons that are invincible, according to President Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin made the revelation as he laid out his key policies for a fourth presidential term, ahead of an election he is expected to win in 17 days' time.

The weapons he showcased included a cruise missile that he said can "reach anywhere in the world".

Using video presentations, he said the missile could not be stopped by the US shield in Europe and Asia.

It was "a low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile with a nuclear payload with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence".

Another weapon he discussed was a submarine launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

During the two-hour televised speech to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament, he encouraged Russians to suggest names for the two systems. He argued that Russia had reacted after years of pleading with the US not to break away from anti-missile treaties.

If these toys actually exist, they would make for a super fun first strike capability. Cool beans!

They already exist. They're called ICBMs.

[El Guapo]

It's a good thing that the West has a steady hand at the tiller, to navigate such tumultuous times.

Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons

Russia has developed a new array of nuclear weapons that are invincible, according to President Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin made the revelation as he laid out his key policies for a fourth presidential term, ahead of an election he is expected to win in 17 days' time.

The weapons he showcased included a cruise missile that he said can "reach anywhere in the world".

Using video presentations, he said the missile could not be stopped by the US shield in Europe and Asia.

It was "a low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile with a nuclear payload with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence".

Another weapon he discussed was a submarine launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

During the two-hour televised speech to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament, he encouraged Russians to suggest names for the two systems. He argued that Russia had reacted after years of pleading with the US not to break away from anti-missile treaties.

If these toys actually exist, they would make for a super fun first strike capability. Cool beans!

They already exist. They're called ICBMs.

But those aren't invincible.

[Isgrimnur]

Isn’t that what the I stands for?

[GreenGoo]

Because Russia's economy is booming, sanctions are doing nothing, oligarchs aren't raiding what little there is, and Putin wants to start something (ok, maybe this last part is true).

While I guess he could find the money to create new nuclear weapons, why would he bother?

[Max Peck]

It's a good thing that the West has a steady hand at the tiller, to navigate such tumultuous times.

Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons

Russia has developed a new array of nuclear weapons that are invincible, according to President Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin made the revelation as he laid out his key policies for a fourth presidential term, ahead of an election he is expected to win in 17 days' time.

The weapons he showcased included a cruise missile that he said can "reach anywhere in the world".

Using video presentations, he said the missile could not be stopped by the US shield in Europe and Asia.

It was "a low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile with a nuclear payload with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence".

Another weapon he discussed was a submarine launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

During the two-hour televised speech to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament, he encouraged Russians to suggest names for the two systems. He argued that Russia had reacted after years of pleading with the US not to break away from anti-missile treaties.

If these toys actually exist, they would make for a super fun first strike capability. Cool beans!

They already exist. They're called ICBMs.

ICBM launches are easily detectable, allowing the target time to launch a retaliatory strike while the first strike in still incoming. My ears pricked up at the "difficult to detect" portion of the claim, not the "impossible to intercept" portion. Belief, on any side, that someone can pull off a true surprise attack with overwhelming nuclear force that destroys the retaliatory capability on the ground or in the silo (or in the water, if you feel good about your intel on opforce submarine assets) undercuts the effectiveness of MAD.

[El Guapo]

It's a good thing that the West has a steady hand at the tiller, to navigate such tumultuous times.

Russia's Putin reveals 'invincible' nuclear weapons

Russia has developed a new array of nuclear weapons that are invincible, according to President Vladimir Putin.

Mr Putin made the revelation as he laid out his key policies for a fourth presidential term, ahead of an election he is expected to win in 17 days' time.

The weapons he showcased included a cruise missile that he said can "reach anywhere in the world".

Using video presentations, he said the missile could not be stopped by the US shield in Europe and Asia.

It was "a low-flying, difficult-to-spot cruise missile with a nuclear payload with a practically unlimited range and an unpredictable flight path, which can bypass lines of interception and is invincible in the face of all existing and future systems of both missile defence and air defence".

Another weapon he discussed was a submarine launched, long-range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.

During the two-hour televised speech to a joint sitting of both houses of parliament, he encouraged Russians to suggest names for the two systems. He argued that Russia had reacted after years of pleading with the US not to break away from anti-missile treaties.

If these toys actually exist, they would make for a super fun first strike capability. Cool beans!

They already exist. They're called ICBMs.

ICBM launches are easily detectable, allowing the target time to launch a retaliatory strike while the first strike in still incoming. My ears pricked up at the "difficult to detect" portion of the claim, not the "impossible to intercept" portion. Belief, on any side, that someone can pull off a true surprise attack with overwhelming nuclear force that destroys the retaliatory capability on the ground or in the silo (or in the water, if you feel good about your intel on opforce submarine assets) undercuts the effectiveness of MAD.

The devastating first strike has always been somewhat chimerical, though. All you have to do is scatter your retaliatory capacity across different areas, and chances of the first strike getting substantially everything are pretty much zero. And that's not factoring in nuclear submarines and the like.

[Max Peck]

Because Russia's economy is booming, sanctions are doing nothing, oligarchs aren't raiding what little there is, and Putin wants to start something (ok, maybe this last part is true).

While I guess he could find the money to create new nuclear weapons, why would he bother?

Why not? His long game is to recreate the Soviet empire as a Russian sphere of influence and make Russia a first-tier global power again. The big boys need big toys, or at least need to convince everyone that they have big toys.

At any rate, the most interesting thing going forward is going to be the American reaction (or lack thereof). It's entirely possible that the whole point of this revelation is to goad the Trump administration into pumping bazillions into nuclear weapon development. Technically, Trump has already declared that he wants a new nuclear arms race, and that he intends to win it.