Political Randomness

[malchior]

This is a worth the 2 minute watch if you are a fan of watching a CATO guy get shut down for cherry picking data. The guy testifying responded below with some bluster after getting caught out in the open as a hack.

Spoiler:

He just links to a menu of the study authors work - who cares - she wrote a letter saying he was wrong.

[hepcat]

This hurts considering how well you've known me for all these years........
I WAS THE BEST MAN AT YOUR WEDDING FOR GOD"S SAKE!!!!!

Thankfully you advertise who you are, loudly and proudly.

Edit: to be fair, Smoove_B actually was the best man at my wedding, and most NFL players are better than him too.

I’m confused. Are you stating that your marriage is like football? Or that Smoove dressed like a quarterback at your wedding?

[Smoove_B]

MCCONNELL: "After they change the filibuster, they're going to admit the District as a state. They're going to admit Puerto Rico as a state. That's four new Democratic senators in perpetuity. Once they get a hammerlock on the Senate, they're going to then pack the Supreme Court."

[LordMortis]

Once they get a hammerlock on the Senate, they're going to then pack the Supreme Court.

Reading your own playbook on the strengths of your tyrannical minority, huh? (Also I don't think it's afraid, I think it's sell fear, which is it what it does)

[Unagi]

I think PR should be two states.

East PR and West PR.

[stessier]

I think PR should be two states.

East PR and West PR.

And DC is already thought of as 4 districts (generally by points on the compass).

[Smoove_B]

(Also I don't think it's afraid, I think it's sell fear, which is it what it does)

I need to believe that he' looking into the abyss and realizing for the first time in a long time that things might change. I need to believe he's experiencing some fear - let me have this on a Friday.

[LordMortis]

(Also I don't think it's afraid, I think it's sell fear, which is it what it does)

I need to believe that he' looking into the abyss and realizing for the first time in a long time that things might change. I need to believe he's experiencing some fear - let me have this on a Friday.

OK you can have it. Maybe even one day you can convince me. I could use it too.

[Smoove_B]

[Defiant]

Leaked documents involving about $2tn of transactions have revealed how some of the world's biggest banks have allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world.

They also show how Russian oligarchs have used banks to avoid sanctions that were supposed to stop them getting their money into the West.

It's the latest in a string of leaks over the past five years that have exposed secret deals, money laundering and financial crime.

[Smoove_B]

Fuck ICE. Shut. It. Down.

I guess this goes here? I'm not even sure? Do we have a crimes against humanity subforum in R&P?


‘Like an Experimental Concentration Camp’: Whistleblower Complaint Alleges Mass Hysterectomies at ICE Detention Center:

Several legal advocacy groups on Monday filed a whistleblower complaint on behalf of a nurse at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention center documenting “jarring medical neglect” within the facility, including a refusal to test detainees for the novel coronavirus and an exorbitant rate of hysterectomies being performed on immigrant women.

The nurse, Dawn Wooten, was employed at the Irwin County Detention Center (ICDC) in Georgia, which is operated by LaSalle Corrections, a private prison company. The complaint was filed with the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) by advocacy groups Project South, Georgia Detention Watch, Georgia Latino Alliance for Human Rights, and South Georgia Immigrant Support Network.

Multiple women came forward to tell Project South about what they perceived to be the inordinate rate at which women in ICDC were subjected to hysterectomies – a surgical operation in which all or part of the uterus is removed. Additionally, many of the immigrant women who underwent the procedure were reportedly “confused” when asked to explain why they had the surgery, with one detainee likening their treatment to prisoners in concentration camps.

How are we doing 6 days later?

ICE Hysterectomy Doctor Wasn’t Even a Board-Certified OB-GYN

[LawBeefaroni]

How are we doing 6 days later?

ICE Hysterectomy Doctor Wasn’t Even a Board-Certified OB-GYN

Why is this a thing? Do we think ICE would be using top credentialed providers? A board cert isn't required for a license. It's just a useful marker of a minimum level of competence.

FWIW, his NPPES registration is here.


The real question should be where did he have staff privileges and was he in any IPA/PHOs.

[El Guapo]

Leaked documents involving about $2tn of transactions have revealed how some of the world's biggest banks have allowed criminals to move dirty money around the world.

They also show how Russian oligarchs have used banks to avoid sanctions that were supposed to stop them getting their money into the West.

It's the latest in a string of leaks over the past five years that have exposed secret deals, money laundering and financial crime.

It's hard to know what to make of this. SARs are akin to the Steele dossier - it's not "we have concluded that there is wrongdoing here" it's "hey, these transactions look weird to us, and so we're letting you know because you require us to let you know when we see weird transactions." Somewhere between many to most of the time there's ultimately nothing illegal happening (and some percentage of the time there's nothing *provably* illegal), and you need to conduct a full investigation to actually assess whether something has.

It's not clear to me from this whether the BBC or others have run down these, or whether they're basically assuming that a SAR = illegal activity.

[El Guapo]

How are we doing 6 days later?

ICE Hysterectomy Doctor Wasn’t Even a Board-Certified OB-GYN

Why is this a thing? Do we think ICE would be using top credentialed providers? A board cert isn't required for a license. It's just a useful marker of a minimum level of competence.

FWIW, his NPPES registration is here.


The real question should be where did he have staff privileges and was he in any IPA/PHOs.

It's relevant because the ICE higher ups are going to argue: (1) the doctor didn't do anything wrong; and (2) if you prove that he did do something wrong, then we didn't know that he was doing wrong things and would have stopped him had we known.

The second is relevant to the reasonableness of having the doctor in place in the first place, even if it can't be proven that ICE higher ups knew what he was doing.

[LawBeefaroni]

It's not clear to me from this whether the BBC or others have run down these, or whether they're basically assuming that a SAR = illegal activity.

They (others) have for several of them and identified illegal or highly likely illegally laundering. They have also identified "eh, maybe not illegal" ones. So I don't think it's an overblown case of all SARs are bad.

[LawBeefaroni]

Also, Deutsche Bank just needs to die.

[Smoove_B]

I guess this is political randomness? Again, it crosses so many threads here I just don't know anymore.

DOJ designates NYC at anarchist jurisdiction:

New York City is one of three places that "have permitted violence and destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract criminal activities," leading to its designation as an "anarchist jurisdiction," the Justice Department said Monday.

Rather than idle words, the designation has potential financial consequences. President Trump issued a memo earlier this month directing the DOJ to identify jurisdictions that, in its view, were not enforcing the law appropriately. Designated cities could lose their federal funding.

Just out in the open, in the middle of a pandemic. We should be on the 5th or 6th impeachment hearing at this point.

[LawBeefaroni]

I guess this is political randomness? Again, it crosses so many threads here I just don't know anymore.

DOJ designates NYC at anarchist jurisdiction:

New York City is one of three places that "have permitted violence and destruction of property to persist and have refused to undertake reasonable measures to counteract criminal activities," leading to its designation as an "anarchist jurisdiction," the Justice Department said Monday.

Rather than idle words, the designation has potential financial consequences. President Trump issued a memo earlier this month directing the DOJ to identify jurisdictions that, in its view, were not enforcing the law appropriately. Designated cities could lose their federal funding.

Just out in the open, in the middle of a pandemic. We should be on the 5th or 6th impeachment hearing at this point.

Well, at least when Air Force One goes down in Manhattan, Trump won't need Snake Plissken to find his way out.

[Alefroth]

It's hard to know what to make of this. SARs are akin to the Steele dossier - it's not "we have concluded that there is wrongdoing here" it's "hey, these transactions look weird to us, and so we're letting you know because you require us to let you know when we see weird transactions."

Often, it's not even 'these look weird'. It's just 'this transaction or series of transactions reaches this amount' and a SAR is required.

[ImLawBoy]

I support the right to protest, but I'm coming around to banning news helicopters (in particular the ones that have been hovering over my neighborhood for the last three hours - don't they have to refuel at some point?).

[Isgrimnur]

https://www.airbus.com/helicopters/civi ... /h125.html

4h30m flight time.

[LawBeefaroni]

I support the right to protest, but I'm coming around to banning news helicopters (in particular the ones that have been hovering over my neighborhood for the last three hours - don't they have to refuel at some point?).

I like them. It's like a beacon telling me where traffic is going to be really bad and places to avoid for the time being.

[$iljanus]

Also, Deutsche Bank just needs to die.

No kidding. They’re like the go to bank for the mega rich and multinational conglomerates for all their tax evasion and money laundering needs! They have a section in Wikipedia entitled “Controversies” with a greatest hits list of shady dealings.

[Kurth]

Interesting article in the Atlantic about the Geography of Partisan Prejudice.

I think a lot about the number of issues/ideas/principles most Americans would generally be able to find agreement on, so I liked the following quote:

The irony is that Americans remain in agreement on many actual issues. Eight out of 10 Americans think that political correctness is a problem; the same number say that hate speech is a concern too. Most Americans are worried about the federal budget deficit, believe abortion should be legal in some or all cases, and want stricter gun regulation. Nevertheless, we are more and more convinced that the other side poses a threat to the country. Our stereotypes have outpaced reality, as stereotypes tend to do.

Otherwise, it's as you might expect: pretty depressing.

We are being fooled by our political leaders and the broken media into hating each other.

[Daehawk]

What we need is a world war to straighten everyone out.

Kidding. Mostly. Maybe just a civil war..a small one.

[malchior]

We are being fooled by our political leaders and the broken media the very wealthy into hating each other.

[Kurth]

We are being fooled by our political leaders and the broken media the very wealthy into hating each other.

No. It’s not a fucking class war. Everyone loses in this game eventually.

[dbt1949]

Where is all the money coming from to pay for all these Covid protections and such?
Congress spent god knows how much on stimulus checks and unemployment relief and the local schools and spending who knows how much on cleaning classrooms and providing masks.
Not to mention business' that are providing things to be complaint with local regulations.
All this while revenues and profits are going down. Also the landlords not getting their rent money.
Is this all being charged to our grandkids and great grandkids?

[Holman]

Where is all the money coming from to pay for all these Covid protections and such?
Congress spent god knows how much on stimulus checks and unemployment relief and the local schools and spending who knows how much on cleaning classrooms and providing masks.
Not to mention business' that are providing things to be complaint with local regulations.
All this while revenues and profits are going down. Also the landlords not getting their rent money.
Is this all being charged to our grandkids and great grandkids?

Yeah, it's debt.

The solution is to then elect politicians who will raise taxes on the wealthy. They've had decades of the system shoveling money their way, and it's time for them to pay their share.

[Zarathud]

This is why the wealthy will hide behind Trump, they know who is first against the wall after the circus ends.

[Kraken]

End-stage capitalism. We can apparently print an infinite amount of money at zero interest without causing inflation, and it will all end up concentrated at the top anyway.

[malchior]

We are being fooled by our political leaders and the broken media the very wealthy into hating each other.

No. It’s not a fucking class war. Everyone loses in this game eventually.

Yes it is. It's pretty obvious at this point. There are several papers that have found that despite the alignment on many policy positions that you mentioned above they don't get implemented if they don't align with the policy preferences of the wealthy. In fact, the policy preference that only the wealthy prefer are implemented far more often. This has led to less money in people's pockets over time. Policy that doesn't help many folks. It has led us here. It is the key issue underlying all this dysfunction.

And to your point. It is absurd to think everyone loses. The wealthy have become global citizens. They hold multiple citizenships. They have global banks that cater to help them hide money. They can move around in their own aircraft and live wherever they want.

Edit: Here is the evidence about why I believe this to be true:

Democracy and the Policy Preferences of Wealthy Americans - a primer on the policy preference of the wealthy that doesn't go into policy implementation.

Testing theories of American Politics - this is the leading paper that essentially statistically indicates that the United States is a corrupt oligarchy.

By directly pitting the predictions of ideal-type theories against each other within a single statistical model (using a unique data set that includes imperfect but useful measures of the key independent variables for nearly two thousand policy issues), we have been able to produce some striking findings. One is the nearly total failure of “median voter” and other Majoritarian Electoral Democracy theories. When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy. The failure of theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy is all the more striking because it goes against the likely effects of the limitations of our data. The preferences of ordinary citizens were measured more
directly than our other independent variables, yet they are estimated to have the least effect.

Nor do organized interest groups substitute for direct citizen influence, by embodying citizens’ will and ensuring that their wishes prevail in the fashion postulated by theories of Majoritarian Pluralism. Interest groups do have substantial independent impacts on policy, and a few groups (particularly labor unions) represent average citizens’ views reasonably well. But the interest-group system as a whole does not. Overall, net interest-group alignments are not significantly related to the preferences of average citizens. The net alignments of the most influential, business-oriented groups are negatively related to the average citizen’s wishes. So existing interest groups do not serve effectively as transmission belts for the wishes of the populace as a whole. “Potential groups” do not take up the slack, either, since average citizens’ preferences have little or no independent impact on policy after existing groups’ stands are controlled for. Furthermore, the preferences of economic elites (as measured by our proxy, the preferences of “affluent” citizens) have far more independent impact upon policy change than the preferences of average citizens do. To be sure, this does not mean that ordinary citizens always lose out; they fairly often get the policies they favor, but only because those policies happen also to be preferred by the economically-elite citizens who wield the actual influence.

This is a slightly more accessible defense of that paper by the authors that was printed in the Washington Post

Here is the key phrase that resonates with me - you can draw a choppy dashed line between the state of American politics to Trump just based on economic policy. In other words, there isn't class warfare. There was a class war and the wealthy won years ago.

We would never argue, as one journalist critical of our work suggested, that “democracies should enact the people’s opinions exactly as currently stated.” As Gilens wrote in “Affluence & Influence,” “There are good reasons to want government policy to deviate at times from the preferences of the majority: minority rights are important too and majorities are sometimes shortsighted or misguided in ways that policymakers must try to recognize and resist.”

An ideal democracy, if such a thing can be imagined, would not offer a perfect match between public opinion and government policy, as if people sitting at home were voting directly from their TV remotes or mobile phones. But the gross inequality that our research reveals is strongly undemocratic and incompatible with notions of political equality that most Americans hold dear.

Many Americans voting for outsider candidates believe that government pretty much ignores people like them. We think they’re right.[/quote

[malchior]

This is why the wealthy will hide behind Trump, they know who is first against the wall after the circus ends.

Conservatism has generally in modern times existed to serve the wealthy. Over time progressive movements have risen to deal with spates of inequality when they arose. Smart conservative parties like the Tories moved to the center when they needed and gave back to the middle/lower quartiles of wealth and maintained healthy control of the UK over the last century. Conservatism in the US was a bit less...straightforward as we've had to deal with a lot of internal stability issues such as race, civil rights, etc.

Interestingly the UK conservatives started going off the rails the same time ours did in the late 70s/80s. There are a lot of parallels between Thatcher and Reagan in economic policy. It isn't lockstep obviously but despite the miscalculation that set them on this Brexit adventure they still are more reasonable than what the GOP has become. A party that uses wedge issues to deliver tax breaks to the very wealthy and serves to loot the country whenever a crisis arises that allows them to.

So yeah they hide behind Trump because he is one of them ultimately. He says all this populist shit but in the end he is putting judges on that support the status quo of economic policy. His party uses wedge issues to maintain antimajoritarian control to promulgate policy that serves the wealthy. Heck the CDC rolled back guidance at meat packing plants that probably killed people to protect corporate profits. But luckily they've figured out how to keep us fighting each other instead of making them pay some taxes.

[malchior]

[Isgrimnur]

Axios

A federal court judge on Sunday granted TikTok's request for a temporary restraining order against a ban by the Trump administration.

[malchior]

Dont worry...just more lawlessness.

[LawBeefaroni]

Dont worry...just more lawlessness.

What is the rationale? It's what, 3 more weeks? Surely it can't be cost.

[Jaymann]

Dont worry...just more lawlessness.

What is the rationale? It's what, 3 more weeks? Surely it can't be cost.

Limiting brown people.

[malchior]

Here is more of the story here. The lawyer from Commerce even seemed out of the know.

An announcement Monday that Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross is aiming to end census data collection by Oct. 5 took a federal judge by surprise days after she ordered operations to continue through Oct. 31 to get an accurate population count.

“Breaking news,” a lawyer for the Commerce Department told U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh as a hearing was under way on a lawsuit by civil rights groups claiming that the Trump administration’s move to compress the timeline for the once-a-decade census will result in an undercount of minorities.

[Smoove_B]

I mean, it's not like the Census is in the Constitution or anything. And even if it was, since when does that matter?

I keep saying this, but every day that passes I fantasize about clearing Trump administration cancer from D.C. with a flamethrower like MacReady in The Thing. These are not healthy thoughts.