Political Randomness

[ImLawBoy]

protecting “benevolent white supremacy,”

You guys are totally blowing this out of proportion. It's benevolent white supremacy. If it's benevolent, how bad can it be?

[Skinypupy]

So, all those kids that ICE separated from their parents and started tossing in DoD warehouses? Yeah, they've managed to lose 1,475 of them.

From page 8 of the HHS report to the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs:

From October to December 2017, ORR attempted to reach 7,635 UAC and their sponsors. Of this number, ORR reached and received agreement to participate in the safety and well-being call from approximately 86 percent of sponsors. From these calls, ORR learned that 6,075 UAC remained with their sponsors. Twenty-eight UAC had run away, five had been removed from the United States, and 52 had relocated to live with a non-sponsor. ORR was unable to determine with certainty the whereabouts of 1,475 UAC. Based on the calls, ORR referred 792 cases, which were in need of further assistance, to the National Call Center for additional information and services.

I don't care if they're "illegal" or not, they're still goddamn human beings. Treating children and families this way is just horrific.

I heard an in-depth segment on this on NPR yesterday. A couple important facts that have been misconstrued or misunderstood: (1) The 1,500 “missing” kids weren’t separated at the border by ICE. These were unaccompanied minors who had no adult with them when they arrived at the border. (2) Characterizing them as “missing” is a little off. They were each released into the custody of an adult sponsor in the U.S., and ICE has been unable to reconnect with those adult sponsors, apparently when it does a routine follow-up check-in call. While that’s not acceptable, it’s also not entirely shocking. Many of the adult sponsors of the kids are relatives or friends who themselves are in the U.S. illegally and subject to possible deportation. Not surprisingly, they often don’t supply ICE with accurate contact info or just refuse to take ICE’s check-in calls because they, understandably, want to have as little to do with ICE as possible.

The NPR segment was all about prevailing narratives in media and social media and how “fake news” gets started and spread. It also discussed how “fake news” isn’t a binary thing but how there are many different flavors and degrees. On this particular immigration story about the 1,500 kids ICE allegedly separated from their parents at the border and then lost, the narrative appears to be a mash-up of two different stories - the fact the Trump administration has a policy of separating kids/adults at the border and that ICE hasn’t been able to contact these 1,500 unaccompanied kids.

One other thing I found interesting: Trump’s policy of separating children and adults is not entirely new. It’s been standard policy for some time that ICE would separate kids from adults whenever ICE thought the adults in question may not be the parents of the kids or their lawful guardians. ICE has traditionally done this because of fears of child trafficking and also that kids are frequently kidnapped and forced to cross the border with an adult so that adult can make it into the U.S. The difference is, the Trump administration has suggested that the separation policy should be used as a deterrent to immigration, which really sucks.

Thanks for this. I've read up quite a bit on this issue since my original post, and it's not nearly as clear-cut as it was first made out to be (for the exact reasons you described).

I've been meaning to come back and post an update/correction, but didn't get around to it.

[GreenGoo]

I independently pursued more details on the "missing children" and came to the same conclusion.

While the system seems shaky there is nothing specifically nefarious about the current administration's handling of the situation, which seems to be the norm (unfortunately) through multiple admins.

[El Guapo]

The GOP in 2018: voting for white nationalists and pedophiles to own the libs.

He's running as an independent. You can't put this one on the GOP...in fact, he's going to be poaching their most deplorable voters.

Good point. But Roy Moore and this video below are consistent with the broader conclusion:

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/stat ... 4676033537

Honestly, in the short term, it's probably better for them to run. Overt lunatics and white nationalists and the like do much worse in elections, and at this point your standard bearing GOP representative is 90% as harmful.

[LordMortis]

Honestly, in the short term, it's probably better for them to run. Overt lunatics and white nationalists and the like do much worse in elections, and at this point your standard bearing GOP representative is 90% as harmful.

Agreed, or at least I hope, agreed. I never thought we'd have what we have which makes me fear there is actually a possibility that overt lunatics and white nationalists might get a seat at the table.

[Captain Caveman]

Agreed, or at least I hope, agreed. I never thought we'd have what we have which makes me fear there is actually a possibility that overt lunatics and white nationalists might get a seat at the table.

Uh.... we're already there, man.

[Holman]

Honestly, in the short term, it's probably better for them to run. Overt lunatics and white nationalists and the like do much worse in elections, and at this point your standard bearing GOP representative is 90% as harmful.

Problem is the long run. Every foot of normalization makes the next a yard.

[El Guapo]

Honestly, in the short term, it's probably better for them to run. Overt lunatics and white nationalists and the like do much worse in elections, and at this point your standard bearing GOP representative is 90% as harmful.

Problem is the long run. Every foot of normalization makes the next a yard.

Oh, I know. But at the same, so much hinges on Democrats getting at least one chamber of Congress out of the 2018 election. If they don't, we are in some deep, deep shit. So I would trade some amount of long-term normalization for a boost to Democrats' 2018 chances.

[gbasden]

I independently pursued more details on the "missing children" and came to the same conclusion.

While the system seems shaky there is nothing specifically nefarious about the current administration's handling of the situation, which seems to be the norm (unfortunately) through multiple admins.

While it's gone on before, where this becomes morally horrific for me is that they are not only prosecuting those who cross the border illegally, they are also criminalizing those who present themselves to border officials and request asylum. With the numbers of people legitimately fleeing violence in Central America, it's especially heartbreaking when they get here and their families are torn apart because we want to prosecute them. It's just incredibly wrong.

[GreenGoo]

That's not in any way related to the story that this administration has "lost 1500 children" though.

As you note, there are plenty of reasons to criticize this administration's immigration policies. Losing children is not one of them.

[gbasden]

That's not in any way related to the story that this administration has "lost 1500 children" though.

As you note, there are plenty of reasons to criticize this administration's immigration policies. Losing children is not one of them.

It's related in that the two stories were conflated. Just because half of the story is inaccurate doesn't mean the other half isn't horrid. Even if those 1500 children are only with underground relatives, most of them should be with their parents instead of being treated like an unaccompanied minor because the administration wants to be as brutal as possible to dissuade asylum seekers.

[GreenGoo]

That's also not the situation.

Well, sort of. Now it's you conflating two seperate situations.

[gbasden]

Yes, ok, fine. It's not entirely 1:1. We don't know how many people over the last year had children removed from parents due to criminalization of seeking amnesty. We don't even know completely now how much it's happening. Are you contesting that ICE is removing children from parents? Do you believe that those children are not treated as unaccompanied minors and placed with relatives or in foster care? Past that, frankly, I don't really care. That's already over my moral line.

[tjg_marantz]

Those missing kids were counted after not being to account for whereabouts after one attempted phone call.

There is so much wrong with how this story was reported and confused with the other. Now everyone is using that to prove their point, left, right and centre.

[Zarathud]

Not only don't we know, this administration doesn't care. And they likely encouraged the story to deter refugees/immigrants.

If you act with bad intent repeatedly, you're not a victim when someone presumes bad intent later. Boy who cried wolf, etc.

[Defiant]

Rudy Giuliani Claims Yankee Stadium Boos Were A Show Of ‘Love’

[Sepiche]

h/t Popehat... it turns out hosting a social media site that's a refuge for white nationalists, conspiracy theorists, and alt-right trolls is harder than it sounds.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/conspirac ... the-inside

The picture of the noose surrounded by swastikas was the last straw. “It’s coming for you, are you excited?” a user on Gab wrote to Utsav Sanduja. Sanduja said he was calling the cops.

But Sanduja’s promise to alert law enforcement only made his opponents angrier.

Sanduja is the chief operating officer of Gab, a social media site beloved by the alt-right, including a vocal contingent of Nazis. The company bills itself as a “free speech” alternative to Twitter and Facebook. But the site’s anything-goes ethos seems to have chafed against its leadership; in recent weeks, members of Gab’s executive team have publicly railed against the site’s users, accusing some of sabotage and “PSYOPS,” with Gab execs threatening to call law enforcement on those users—a cardinal sin among some of the site’s “free speech” die-hards.

[malchior]

Coward.

[El Guapo]

Coward.

I hear you, but as long as he wins his reelection bid and keeps caucusing with the Democrats, he can be open to supporting Hitler for all I care.

[Paingod]

I hear you, but as long as he wins his reelection bid and keeps caucusing with the Democrats, he can be open to supporting Hitler for all I care.

The same thinking on the other side is how we got here.

I'm open to voting for people who make reasonable sense. Someone without the backbone to stand up for America is not what we need. Now, if his opposition is "I love Trump, I'll have his children right after the sex change" then he automatically becomes the lesser of two evils and wins.

[El Guapo]

I hear you, but as long as he wins his reelection bid and keeps caucusing with the Democrats, he can be open to supporting Hitler for all I care.

The same thinking on the other side is how we got here.

I'm open to voting for people who make reasonable sense. Someone without the backbone to stand up for America is not what we need. Now, if his opposition is "I love Trump, I'll have his children right after the sex change" then he automatically becomes the lesser of two evils and wins.

In general, sure. But the 2018 election is uniquely important in terms of flipping one chamber of Congress in order to get some actual oversight of Trump. Manchin will vote for Schumer for majority leader. Ordinarily that might not be enough, but this year it is.

Also - and this is important - but are you familiar with the West Virginia electorate? Manchin is by far the most sane possible endproduct that we could hope for.

[malchior]

I hear you, but as long as he wins his reelection bid and keeps caucusing with the Democrats, he can be open to supporting Hitler for all I care.

The same thinking on the other side is how we got here.

I'm open to voting for people who make reasonable sense. Someone without the backbone to stand up for America is not what we need. Now, if his opposition is "I love Trump, I'll have his children right after the sex change" then he automatically becomes the lesser of two evils and wins.

In general, sure. But the 2018 election is uniquely important in terms of flipping one chamber of Congress in order to get some actual oversight of Trump. Manchin will vote for Schumer for majority leader. Ordinarily that might not be enough, but this year it is.

The Senate is probably not going to be in play. This win at any costs nonsense is why we are here. This is cowardly and pathetic. He deserves to lose.

Also - and this is important - but are you familiar with the West Virginia electorate? Manchin is by far the most sane possible endproduct that we could hope for.

Sure but he still only gives a shit about #1 so what does that say?

[El Guapo]

I hear you, but as long as he wins his reelection bid and keeps caucusing with the Democrats, he can be open to supporting Hitler for all I care.

The same thinking on the other side is how we got here.

I'm open to voting for people who make reasonable sense. Someone without the backbone to stand up for America is not what we need. Now, if his opposition is "I love Trump, I'll have his children right after the sex change" then he automatically becomes the lesser of two evils and wins.

In general, sure. But the 2018 election is uniquely important in terms of flipping one chamber of Congress in order to get some actual oversight of Trump. Manchin will vote for Schumer for majority leader. Ordinarily that might not be enough, but this year it is.

The Senate is probably not going to be in play. This win at any costs nonsense is why we are here. This is cowardly and pathetic. He deserves to lose.

Also - and this is important - but are you familiar with the West Virginia electorate? Manchin is by far the most sane possible endproduct that we could hope for.

Sure but he still only gives a shit about #1 so what does that say?

The (necessarily) very rough estimates of the Democrats flipping the Senate that I have seen from like 538 and the like tend to put the odds at something like 33%ish. They will *probably* flip the NV and AZ seats, and have maybe a 50/50 shot at TN (Bredesen is leading in the polls, question is whether that will hold up). Hardest part is probably holding on in all of the red state reelection races. Overall unlikely, but far from unthinkable.

To put it another way, as of now the Democrats probably have a better shot than Trump did on election night 2016. However, in Manchin loses his reelection bid, that probably drops to well under 20%. That's why it's so important than Manchin win, even if he's far from the ideal guy for a lot of democrats nationwide. Especially what with the alternative being someone who Trump can count on as a reliable vote probably 90%+ of the time, including on the key question of whether Trump is held accountable in the slightest.

And with West Virginians loving them some Trump, part of the calculation has to be saying some nice things about Trump from time to time.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Whoops!

[Zarathud]

...some very fine people on both sides...

Serious insult that the Congressman's staffers can't recognize the American troops from WW2.

[Unagi]

or the iron cross on the tank.

[Holman]

It's sloppy all around. The Truman quote is all about praising our allies, not the U.S. troops who "served to hold our flag high." It's of course legitimate, but it's not the message he's trying to send.

I going with "pandering moron does 30-second Google search."

or the iron cross on the tank.

You'd think his interns would at least have played CoD.

[Isgrimnur]

Germany

Police have yet to find the man who stole Alexander Gauland's clothes while he swam in a lake last week, forcing the co-leader of the German Parliament's most far-right party to walk half-naked through the streets — an image that is going viral on social media.

At least the motive for the crime seems clear. “Nazis need no bathing fun!” Gauland said the thief shouted as he stole the 77-year-old lawmaker's shirt and pants.



Gauland has never publicly defended the German Nazis, who during their 12-year rule started World War II, killed millions of people and tried to exterminate all Jews. But he has repeatedly suggested that it's time to stop apologizing for the past.

“If the French are rightly proud of their emperor, and the Britons of Nelson and Churchill, we have the right to be proud of the achievements of the German soldiers in two world wars,” Gauland said in September, according to the Guardian. “People no longer need to reproach us with these 12 years. They don’t relate to our identity nowadays.”

A week and a half after he made that speech, Alternative for Germany — a party co-led by him — came third in a six-way national election, becoming the first far-right party to join the German Parliament since the Nazis.
...
As for Gauland, he has railed against foreigners of many kinds since co-founding Alternative for Germany, or AfD, in 2013.

He has called to ban Muslims from the country, Deutsche Welle reported, and once said that “not everyone who holds a German passport is German.”

Gauland denied telling a German newspaper that a black athlete was good enough to play soccer but would not be desirable as a neighbor. But he did not deny calling for a political rival to be "dumped" in Turkey, where his ancestors were born, nor has he expressed regret for any of his statements.

“Why should I?” Gauland told The Washington Post in an interview before the September election. He went on to agree with another member of his party who had objected to the Jewish Holocaust memorial in Berlin.

“He has spoken of a 'monument of shame' in the midst of the German capital,” Gauland told The Post. “And that is totally correct.”

[hepcat]

“Nazis need no bathing fun” is one of my favorite new sayings.

[Alefroth]

The Senate is probably not going to be in play. This win at any costs nonsense is why we are here.

And it's probably the only thing that will get us out of here. Right now, winning at any cost is better than the cost of losing.

[Isgrimnur]

“Nazis need no bathing fun” is one of my favorite new sayings.

It really sings in its original tongue:

[Skinypupy]

We’ve condensed America down to one tweet.

"This is the gofundme for the man with terminal cancer whose wife had to go back to work to pay for it and was murdered in school the other day."

EDIT: Doesn't look like it's displaying the embedded Tweet correctly. It links to this one.

[GreenGoo]

On the plus side, stem cells don't seem to be the anti-christ in the US anymore, so...progress?

[Freyland]

IPF isn't a type of cancer. Fake news!!

[GreenGoo]

Says the idiopath.

[Freyland]

Says the idiopath.

[GreenGoo]

I saw the "I" in "IPF" and ran with it.

[Sepiche]

It really sings in its original tongue:

Such a beautiful language.

[hepcat]

I've said it before, but I'll say it again: you could be ordering a baked potato at a restaurant, but if it's in German, it will still sound like you're commanding the Wehrmacht to take Warsaw.

[Remus West]

I've said it before, but I'll say it again: you could be ordering a baked potato at a restaurant, but if it's in German, it will still sound like you're commanding the Wehrmacht to take Warsaw.

Koch bitte in meiner Küche