Political Randomness

[El Guapo]

PredictIt just boosted the democrats chances of taking the Senate in 2018 from 32% to 48%.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

And Sessions won the seat in 2014 by 97%. Of course, he had no opponent but still!

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Is there a threshold under which there is an automatic recount?

[Daehawk]

Here is Jones group when they find out he won....

https://livefyre-media.s3.amazonaws.com ... 0d0618.mp4

[tjg_marantz]

Is there a threshold under which there is an automatic recount?

.5%

[El Guapo]

FWIW apparently Alabama has a law requiring write-in votes to be tallied if the number of write-ins is greater than the margin of victory (as is the case now). Of course, it would be bizarre if there were thousands of write-ins for Moore, so it's hard to see how it would change the outcome.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Is there a threshold under which there is an automatic recount?

.5%

That’s going to be close...

But, of course, aren’t they throwing away the digital tally?

[El Guapo]

Is there a threshold under which there is an automatic recount?

.5%

FWIW margin of victory I'm seeing right now is Jones +0.9%, so he should finish above the automatic recount margin. Not sure if Moore can request a recount that could be granted at someone's discretion, though.

[YellowKing]

Just as important as an "alleged" sexual predator not getting a Senate seat, this is about as big a FUCK YOU to Trump as a group of people could possibly give.

Now let's just hope the GOP thinks they lost because Moore just wasn't conservative *enough.*

[Scoop20906]

Trump managed to lose twice (Strange and Cowboy Moore) in this one race. He really knows how to read the voters. He is burning political capitol at an astonishing rate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[malchior]

Never more glad to be wrong. Good for Alabama. Looks like the write ins made the difference.

[AWS260]

ROLL TIDE.

[Enough]

Brought up election results with conservative that does not support Moore. Thought this was a safe convo. It was not. Ughhh..

[PLW]

Now let's just hope the GOP thinks they lost because Moore just wasn't conservative *enough.*

I actually do think that's why they lost. Moore has no respect for real conservative values. He's a populist demagogue, just like Trump.

[Kraken]

Never more glad to be wrong. Good for Alabama. Looks like the write ins made the difference.

+1. I hearby retract the most recent snarky thing I said about AL.

[tjg_marantz]

[Max Peck]

FWIW apparently Alabama has a law requiring write-in votes to be tallied if the number of write-ins is greater than the margin of victory (as is the case now). Of course, it would be bizarre if there were thousands of write-ins for Moore, so it's hard to see how it would change the outcome.

It would be bizarre for there to be any write-in votes for Moore, given that he's on the ballot. I'd expect the bulk of the write-ins to be for Strange, cast by conservatives that wanted to vote against Moore without (technically) voting for a Democrat.

[El Guapo]

I assume that someone else wrote that tweet for him.

[YellowKing]

If that line is referring to his Presidency, then I agree. Has it only been a year?

[El Guapo]

FWIW apparently Alabama has a law requiring write-in votes to be tallied if the number of write-ins is greater than the margin of victory (as is the case now). Of course, it would be bizarre if there were thousands of write-ins for Moore, so it's hard to see how it would change the outcome.

It would be bizarre for there to be any write-in votes for Moore, given that he's on the ballot. I'd expect the bulk of the write-ins to be for Strange, cast by conservatives that wanted to vote against Moore without (technically) voting for a Democrat.

Yeah I assume so too. Kind of wonder what the point of the write-in counting law is, then. I guess it's prudent enough to count them just in case.

[El Guapo]

Looks like Moore is going to give a concession speech at 11:30. Here's the link.

[gilraen]

Does Trump seriously think that this Senate seat is up for re-election next year? (granted, Jones only gets half the term before he is up for re-election but still, that's not until 2020)

[Max Peck]

I assume that someone else wrote that tweet for him.

Yup. Aside from the general tone, the grammatically correct complex sentence structure with proper capitalization and punctuation is an obvious tell.

[Daehawk]

Source close White House: "This is an earthquake... it's devastating for the President"

From CNN's Jim Acosta

A source close to the White House says tonight's result is "devastating for the President."

"This is an earthquake," the source said. "It's Virginia but on steroids."

This source put some of the blame on Steve Bannon. "The President has egg on his face," because of Bannon, the source added.

Bannon told Trump if Moore lost, Democrats would feel emboldened to go after the President on sexual harassment issues, this source who is familiar with Bannon's pleas to Trump explained.

"That's why Trump had to do this," the source continued.

"The President invested his political capital and it blew up in his face," the source added

A separate source who advises the White House said "this is bad."

"The RNC and White House political shop must feel uneasy about their futures," this source added

And then this stupid tidbit....ya Im sure thats what Jones will do...NOT!

GOP senator calls on Doug Jones to vote with Republicans

From CNN's Terence Burlij

"Tonight’s results are clear – the people of Alabama deemed Roy Moore unfit to serve in the US Senate,” said NRSC Chairman Sen. Cory Gardner. “I hope Senator-elect Doug Jones will do the right thing and truly represent Alabama by choosing to vote with the Senate Republican Majority.”

It's Gardner's job to elect Republicans to the Senate. He believed that Moore should be expelled from the Senate if he was elected.

[gilraen]

I assume that someone else wrote that tweet for him.

Yup. Aside from the general tone, the grammatically correct complex sentence structure with proper capitalization and punctuation is an obvious tell.

So...we should be expecting a 5AM shittweetstorm?

[Isgrimnur]

Section 17-16-40
Grounds of contest.
The election of any person declared elected to the office of Governor, Secretary of State, Auditor, Treasurer, Attorney General, Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries, Public Service Commissioner, senator or representative in the Legislature, justices of the Supreme Court, judges of the courts of appeals, judge of the circuit court or district court, or any office which is filled by the vote of a single county, or to the office of constable may be contested by any person who was at the time of either of the elections a qualified elector for any of the following causes:

(1) Malconduct, fraud, or corruption on the part of any inspector, clerk, returning officer, canvassing board, or other person.

(2) When the person whose election to office is contested was not eligible thereto at the time of such election.

(3) On account of illegal votes.

(4) On account of the rejection of legal votes.

(5) Offers to bribe, bribery, intimidation, or other malconduct calculated to prevent a fair, free, and full exercise of the elective franchise.

(6) The results of a recount conducted under Section 17-16-20 name as a winner a person other than the person initially certified.

(Code 1896, §1667; Code 1907, §455; Code 1923, §545; Code 1940, T. 17, §231; §17-15-1; amended and renumbered by Act 2006-570, p. 1331, §83.)

[The Meal]

I'd expect the bulk of the write-ins to be for Nick Saban, cast by conservatives that wanted to vote against Moore without (technically) voting for a Democrat.

[Daehawk]

Moores group is on...they aren't conceding....they are counting on a recount.

POOR LOSERS!!

Moore campaign chairman urges a recount "You know, there's a law in Alabama that requires a recount if the vote is within one-half a percent. That includes all the candidates that are on the ballot and any write-ins that are qualifies to be a candidate," said Bill Armistead, Roy Moore's campaign chairman.

"So at this point, we do not have a final decision on the outcome tonight."

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Said they’re planning on a recount, but difference is now at 1.5%. Recount only happens below 0.5%.

[Daehawk]

They're dead in the water and dont know it. Their motor is running but their prop is out of the water.

Moore is crazy......

Roy Moore unwilling to concede: "It's not over"

Roy Moore took the stage and quoted Bible scripture, but he did not concede, saying "it's not over."

"I really want to thank you for coming tonight and realize when the vote is this close that it's not over," Moore said.

"And we still got to go by the rules about this recount provision and Secretary of State has explained it to us and we're expecting that the press will go up there and talk to them to find out what the situation is."

"But we also know that God is always in control. You know, part of the thing -- part of the problem with this campaign is we've been painted in an unfavorable and unfaithful light," Moore said.

I get satisfaction knowing Moore will never see God's face because he will be headed in the other direction.

[Kurth]

Looks like Moore is going to give a concession speech at 11:30. Here's the link.

That was one hell of a concession speech!

Seriously, though. He's cooked, and if he weren't a crazy kook, he'd know it.

I was not optimistic that Jones would win, but wow am I relieved.

The Great Hanukkah Miracle of 2017!

[Isgrimnur]

Waiting on the 'illegal vote' noise machine.

[Defiant]

So I guess Trump's lawyer does have access to his twitter account.

[tjg_marantz]

So I guess Trump's lawyer does have access to his twitter account.

My money's on Baron.

[Zaxxon]

Said they’re planning on a recount, but difference is now at 1.5%. Recount only happens below 0.5%.

538 says the campaign can pay for a recount if it's >0.5%.

[tjg_marantz]

Yeah. It won't happen. The margin widened.

[Isgrimnur]

[Daehawk]

Ok now that Jones won what exactly do the Dems gain by this win over Moore?

[tjg_marantz]

An extra seat?
A renewed vigor to keep up the fight?
Hope?
So many more candidates of high value everywhere?
What else can we get you?

[Zaxxon]

The big thing is that at 51-49, individual defecting Rs have a lot more leverage.