SCOTUS Watch

[GreenGoo]

Looks like there's a successful gofundme campaign to cover the cost of Dr. Blasey's security.

If those death threats happened, I want them investigated. Maybe the fbi can handle that much?

[Rhad]

That the democrats had this information several months ago, and waited to the most politically advantageous time to release it so they could try to delay the vote to past the midterms throws up so many red flags on this for me. Yes her claims need to heard and everything, but the political side of this is pretty disgusting as well.

[GreenGoo]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

[Kurth]

Also, I'm shocked that Christine King - the author of the letter posted above - is now the subject of numerous requests from news outlets for interviews and is uncertain if she wants to proceed with this. Who could have seen that coming???

We will stipulate that not everyone is as smart as you.

Can I ask what your point is here? I'm suggesting that it is absolutely ridiculous that a person posting an open letter on FB (and a now deleted Twitter post) claiming to have gone to school with Christine Blasey Ford and knowing Kavanaugh and claiming to have heard about this incident back in the day is now saying she's been taken by surprise by the fact that her letter has resulted in requests from media outlets:

Hi all, deleted this because it served its purpose and I am now dealing with a slew of requests for interviews from The Wash Post, CNN, CBS News. Organizing how I want to proceed. Was not ready for that, not sure I am interested in pursuing. Thanks for reading
— Cristina King Miranda (@reinabori) September 19, 2018

And WTF does she mean that it's "served its purpose?"

Do you think that's reasonable?

[GreenGoo]

I think I'm tired of trying to get the GOP to release kavanaugh's documents.

I think I've had my fill of trying to figure out why any of them do the things they do.

I think that if any of it is legit, I've stopped caring how it's being done.

I think the Monday interview is slimy and I think the request for FBI is designed to counter that slime.

I literally do not care about corroborator lady. Let the journalists dig and then we can talk.

God knows the government isn't going to do it.

[Zarathud]

Someone check if the Russian bots are just stirring the pot. Not naming names, but you can tell who they are.

[Combustible Lemur]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

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[Isgrimnur]

Do you think that's reasonable?

I think it bears further investigation. And I am willing to wait for the results before making a decision.

[Kurth]

Do you think that's reasonable?

I think it bears further investigation. And I am willing to wait for the results before making a decision.

What exactly are you going to investigate about Cristina King Miranda's professed shock that her letter and tweet drew media interest and that she's no longer sure she's even interested in pursuing this since her disclosures to date have served their purpose?

Please let me know when you've completed your investigation.

[Pyperkub]

Do you think that's reasonable?

I think it bears further investigation. And I am willing to wait for the results before making a decision.

for me, it's just a continuation of what we know about Kavanaugh from the Starr Investigation.

The answer is yes, he will be deaf to anything resembling women's rights - this doesn't really change that.

I'm more concerned that he was also involved in the Torture Memos and Warrantless Surveillance Memos, and misled/obfuscated/lied about that involvement rather than standing up for his work there. I don't think we need such a weasel with such little respect for the Constitution on the Supreme Court.

The other thing which irks me is that RvW is based upon an "unenumerated" Right to Privacy. Something which is and will be very, very important in the 21st Century. As he's being nominated almost explicitly to overturn that... well, throw another scoop of dirt on the grave of the First, Fourth, Ninth, and Fourteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution.

[Rhad]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

[Combustible Lemur]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

Maybe, but that's assumption. The spectre of attempted rape would have been significantly more effective a month ago. Particularly going into the main hearings. Now the inertia of the vote has an above even chance of just drowning it out.

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[Carpet_pissr]

Probably the strategy is simply to delay the vote as long as possible. Longer delay = less chance of a shoe in.

That would imply this is all just dirty politics. Is it?

It's probably not ALL dirty politics, but I have no idea, nor does anyone here, but I'm not a naive sheep, either. Both parties' leadership are out for blood of the other, and will do or try to do things to "win" at costs we would probably blanch at if the real truths were known. Conjecture.

If you made me bet on it, I would come down on the side of a "happy" coincidence for the Dem leadership that this lady's story was available and that she was willing to speak out. They likely "took it from there" wrt timing, coaching, etc.

To put it another way: much of the democratic voting base is at LEAST disturbed by the Garland fiasco, and that Dem leadership at the time did not fight as much as they should have. So I would guess that behind closed doors, you might hear something like "OK, guys, we HAVE to do something about Kavanaugh being crammed down out throats. Anybody got anything to slow this thing down until after the midterms? You know our voters are not happy about the Garland situation - we MUST do something this time"

Not implying that Ford is lying, or has any strategic interest herself in her speaking out, but it was like manna from Heaven for a desperate Feinstein and Co, and they scooped it up.

[GungHo]

Bottom line : is this going to stop Kavanaugh from being confirmed? Given that the FBI appears to not be able to reopen the background check on Kavanaugh d/t the white house's refusal to order them to do so and Ms Ford appears to be (understandably) unwilling to testify w/o the investigation....are we back to square 1 and a vote next week?

Seems also clear (though I wouldn't say 'crystal') that the most likely ship jumpers, aka Collins, Murkowski, flake, corker are on board with Kavanaugh if there's no hearing involving Ms Ford.

So we get a week delay on the vote and what will amount to a tempest in a teacup ( though certainly not for Ms Ford) and the same result. Only with collateral damage in the form of Ms Ford/her life/her career/her families' sense of safety. I sincerely hope that this allegation is 100% true because otherwise Ms Ford has thrown away a lot for what ultimately will be called a political stunt. And I'm sure we would all be disgusted by the 'advice' she's been receiving from the dems in this, since as y'all have noted, she was there only real move and they were going to take hell or high water.

I understand the fight fire with fire idea and more democratic congressional representatives are calling for that tactic but I don't see it as a viable strategy. Just play by the rules until youre back in power and then try to change things then for the better. As of now I just see this ending poorly. The same questionable dbag is confirmed and a woman and her families' lives are ruined as well. Not much bang for your buck

[Paingod]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

Maybe, but that's assumption. The spectre of attempted rape would have been significantly more effective a month ago. Particularly going into the main hearings. Now the inertia of the vote has an above even chance of just drowning it out.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

A simple statement of "Please don't drag me into this unless you have absolutely no other choice" covers it more believably and succinctly. I can see someone who was a victim of a sexual assault asking for that. That leaves it kind of open-ended, though, for the politician to decide the timeline. I don't blame the victim for that.

[Holman]

Why is all of this "last minute" at all?

Republicans talk like something is broken if Kavanaugh isn't confirmed this week, but they delayed Obama's pick for a year.

Of course it's clear what they want, but it's telling that the accuser is the one asking for the FBI to investigate her claims. Liars tend not to do that.

[Paingod]

Agreed. I don't believe the "Last Minute" shit at all. It's a ramrod process by asshat politicians playing a game - and they're pissed that someone else pulled up a chair to the table.

Don't forget, Grassley was all for FBI investigations with Anita Hill and postponing if they had to.

[Unagi]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

Like completely refusing to hold a nomination hearing for over a year ?

And you're ticked that they waited until the last minute to ask that this claim (that she made years ago, and that's documented) is simply investigated? What's the harm? Really? What is the harm in investigating it?

[noxiousdog]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

Like completely refusing to hold a nomination hearing for over a year ?

And you're ticked that they waited until the last minute to ask that this claim (that she made years ago, and that's documented) is simply investigated? What's the harm? Really? What is the harm in investigating it?

What's the harm in starting 6 weeks ago?

[Max Peck]

What's the harm in starting 6 weeks ago?

Aside from the fact that someone would have forced her to come forward against her will at that time?

[noxiousdog]

What's the harm in starting 6 weeks ago?

Aside from the fact that someone would have forced her to come forward against her will at that time?

That's happening now and there was zero chance of it not happening.

[Zarathud]

It's not last minute because (1) Trump and the FBI didn't investigate thoroughly (and still won't), (2) the Republicans are rushing Kavanaugh's nonination and (3) Feinstein made the FBI referral only because everyone was speculating what was in the letter while she was trying to respect Mrs Ford's request. The FBI copped out without doing anything -- leaving no review of the allegation.

The Monday hearing is a gamble designed to provide cover for a rushed pro-Kavanaugh vote if she doesn't show. It took 3 DAYS for the FBI to investigate Anita Hill's allegations. Mrs. Ford doesn't even get that consideration. Republicans have the ability to get this done right, but it won't serve their purposes.

[Smoove_B]

Right. None of this makes any sense until you realize that the only thing that matters to the GOP is getting Kavanaugh seated. They know Trump is a sinking ship. But to be able to lock-up the SCOTUS with a second judge? It's more than they could have ever hoped for. Everything is about getting that seat.

[Paingod]

Everything is about getting that seat.

I think we've felt that several things over the last two years were "everything" to them (like Taxes and ACA). This just might be the last hurrah for them, making it that much more essential for the agenda.

[Smoove_B]

We were foolish in thinking anything other than the ultimate importance of getting these seats. Not only does it give them something to campaign on, but it helps them defend against the "liberal agenda" where we start to regulate guns or give free health care to the poors. If they lose control of Congress, these type of social-change laws the Democrats pass can be challenged, and the GOP has stacked the deck. You're looking at 30+ years of being able to influence the broad direction of the nation. Again - the fact that McConnell robbed one seat is astounding. The fact that they're getting two seats? Unthinkable. I can only imagine what would happen if there's another opening in the next year.

Our system is broken. So very broken.

[LordMortis]

Everything is about getting that seat.

I think we've felt that several things over the last two years were "everything" to them (like Taxes and ACA). This just might be the last hurrah for them, making it that much more essential for the agenda.

I'm not sure who the "we" is in this but it has consistently seems to me that the Supreme Court is everything to "them" since they drew the line in the sand with Obama and won. This persisted through the election of 2016 and that it was brought up every single day by the Dems like it was by the Reps amazed me. That after the election the Dems held back amazed me.

It has always been about generational damage... uh control... Trump used it to get elected and the Reps used Trump to make it happen. And his zealots love every little bit of it.

The Supreme Court should haunt us on a daily basis and never not be a hot topic, as if they were Colin Keapernick and for much the same reason and for much the same reason.

[Max Peck]

What's the harm in starting 6 weeks ago?

Aside from the fact that someone would have forced her to come forward against her will at that time?

That's happening now and there was zero chance of it not happening.

The difference is that she decided to come forward.

[El Guapo]

It's no year long delay, but I'm not happy with the timing either.

My understanding for several different sources is that she asked for them not to release it till recently. The Feinstein kept her confidence at request. I never heard what the specific trigger was that changed the status quo.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

The trigger was they needed something last minute to try and delay the nomination any way possible.

Maybe, but that's assumption. The spectre of attempted rape would have been significantly more effective a month ago. Particularly going into the main hearings. Now the inertia of the vote has an above even chance of just drowning it out.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

I believe Ford herself has said that she requested confidentiality in July, and only came forward now when her name and the allegations began to leak out. Though I suppose it's conceivable that people from Feinstein's office were the ones to leak it, in order to bring this forward before the vote without formally breaking the promise of confidentiality.

[El Guapo]

At this point I think there's a 95% chance that Kavanaugh gets confirmed if Ford does not testify, and nothing else major comes up over the next couple weeks. No idea what the chances are of either of those latter things, though.

[Kraken]

It won't stop his confirmation, but it will harm GOP candidates' standing with women going into the midterms. I am mystified how any woman can be a Republican in the Trump era, but I guess this will peel some of them away.

[El Guapo]

It won't stop his confirmation, but it will harm GOP candidates' standing with women going into the midterms. I am mystified how any woman can be a Republican in the Trump era, but I guess this will peel some of them away.

Interesting column from Ross Douthat (the most interesting / thoughtful of the NYT conservatives IMO) about that. Basically that confirming Kavanaugh has major potential perils for the pro-life movement - if Roe gets overturned as the result of confirming Kavanaugh while he was facing rape allegations, and as a result women flee from the GOP en masse, the result could be a reality where states have the constitutional right to ban abortion, but most legislation (outside of a few very red states) winds up being fairly pro-choice.

Also, the polling for the GOP among college-eduated women is already pretty bad. Bannon's basically said that the GOP should give up on them altogether.

[Paingod]

It sounds more and more like we should just turn the government over to the women entirely, with the caveat that they respect men's bodies as much as men have respected theirs.

Don't know if I'd want to live in a world where fart jokes are outlawed, though.

[Enough]

What's the harm in starting 6 weeks ago?

Aside from the fact that someone would have forced her to come forward against her will at that time?

That's happening now and there was zero chance of it not happening.

The difference is that she decided to come forward.

My wife and I went around on this as well and it does seem clear that she didn't want to come forward earlier. Once we looked through this with the lens of mental health and thinking of her as our sister or our mom it felt really gross questioning her timing. And now Kavenaugh is denying it ever happened. Given her evidence it seems at least reasonable to investigate if Kavenaugh is lying and if proven she's telling the truth it ought to disqualify him from serving.

[Enough]

Good article in the Post that gives Kavanaugh three Pinocchios, ie the Post concludes he's most likely a liar.

Kavanaugh since 2004 has faced dozens of questions from senators of both parties about this issue and has given essentially the same answer: Nothing seemed fishy because Senate staffers often shared this kind of information across party lines.

Questions arose once again at Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing for the Supreme Court this month, and once again, he gave the same see-no-evil answer. Even in hindsight, years after the document breach was revealed, Kavanaugh has maintained that nothing raised red flags and that he never received documents that appeared to be stolen or obtained in an “untoward” manner.

These claims defy logic. An elite Republican lawyer who was immersed at the time in Washington’s inside baseball, Kavanaugh strains credulity by claiming this extraordinary window he had into Democrats’ thinking seemed aboveboard. He received a steady stream of insider information over nine months from Miranda, according to the documents available. It reminds us of Sergeant Schultz in the 1960s TV show “Hogan’s Heroes” — “I see nothing! I hear nothing! I know nothing!”

Particularly questionable are Kavanaugh’s claims about the Peddie letter (Miranda seemed to quote directly from material Democrats had received confidentially) and about the Graves memo, which went on in breathtaking detail about Democrats’ strategy for a big, contentious political battle that year.

The best-case scenario is that Kavanaugh, who is up for a seat on the nation’s highest court, has a glaring lack of curiosity or a superficial level of discernment. The worst-case scenario is that he has been feigning ignorance since his first confirmation hearing in the Senate in April 2004, which was held after the Senate sergeant-at-arms had released his report documenting Miranda’s serial theft.

In any case, Kavanaugh’s response to Leahy this month — describing all this as “the usual kinds of discussions that would happen” — is not accurate. Neither was his answer to written questions in 2004: “These meetings, calls, and emails were typical of how judicial confirmations have been handled in past Administrations.” Neither was his response to Durbin at the 2004 hearing: “There was nothing out of the ordinary of what Senate staffs would tell us or what we would hear from our legislative affairs folks.” All three statements merit Three Pinocchios.

[Enough]

Also,



https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1041676217815105536

[Paingod]

Did any recant their support, though?

Did they even ask at the right high school? From what I'm hearing, Kavanuagh was rubbing elbows with kids from other schools on that night, and the victim isn't someone he went to school with. Do we get a letter from the kids at her school?

*Edit: One of the women on the letter lets us know his school is all boys, and hers was all girls. Now I'm more curious where all the girls who knew him well enough in high school to sign on as character witnesses came from. If they only ever saw him in formal events, he will most certainly be well behaved.

*Edit: Another says he was well behaved at church and social events. He would never have done this sort of thing.

*Edit: And the NYPost reports that 200 people (of possibly uncertain origin) have signed a letter supporting the accuser.

[Kraken]

It won't stop his confirmation, but it will harm GOP candidates' standing with women going into the midterms. I am mystified how any woman can be a Republican in the Trump era, but I guess this will peel some of them away.

Interesting column from Ross Douthat (the most interesting / thoughtful of the NYT conservatives IMO) about that. Basically that confirming Kavanaugh has major potential perils for the pro-life movement - if Roe gets overturned as the result of confirming Kavanaugh while he was facing rape allegations, and as a result women flee from the GOP en masse, the result could be a reality where states have the constitutional right to ban abortion, but most legislation (outside of a few very red states) winds up being fairly pro-choice.

Also, the polling for the GOP among college-eduated women is already pretty bad. Bannon's basically said that the GOP should give up on them altogether.

So maybe Democrats are losing the battle and winning the war, or losing the skirmish and winning the battle, or something like that. Although if Kavanaugh is on the SC for 30 years, the GOP can counterattack long after the Trump administration is just a bad memory.

[Defiant]

Former Georgetown Prep classmate calls Kavanaugh accusations ‘story I know was repeated dozens of times’

“For those of you who don’t know, I went to Georgetown Prep, where both Kavanaugh and Gorsuch went as well,” wrote Ruyak. “When I came forward with allegations regarding Gary Orr, a former priest, sexually assaulting me…Mark Judge (Kavanaugh’s friend in this who despicable story of sexual assault) reached out to alums saying that Gary Orr was a great priest and that I had obviously been corrupted by liberalism into a homosexual and therefore was most definitely lying.”

Once Orr admitted to molestation, Judge alleged said: “Orr was raping kids because of the unchecked liberalism at Prep, and that regardless of whether or not I was telling the truth, I was a homosexual and had it coming.”

“So…for me to hear that this son of a bitch is involved in the allegations of Kavanaugh attempting to rape a girl in high school comes as no surprise to me,” said Ruyak. “It’s always the loudest most arrogant voices that are trying to hide the truth beneath the din of their own pompous voices.”

He went on to say that the story Dr. Christine Blasey Ford “is one that I know was repeated dozens of times in my 4 years at Prep.”

[GreenGoo]

65 woman claim Kavanaugh didn't assault them, though. Therefore he didn't assault this other one.

QED.

Also, vengeance for helping her parents keep their house.

Also also, how can you trust the words of another victim of assault who's allegations have been proven to be true and Kavanaugh was mean to him?

[Holman]

Did any recant their support, though?

Did they even ask at the right high school? From what I'm hearing, Kavanuagh was rubbing elbows with kids from other schools on that night, and the victim isn't someone he went to school with. Do we get a letter from the kids at her school?

*Edit: One of the women on the letter lets us know his school is all boys, and hers was all girls. Now I'm more curious where all the girls who knew him well enough in high school to sign on as character witnesses came from. If they only ever saw him in formal events, he will most certainly be well behaved.

I'd be curious to know who picked the 65 supporters. Obviously they weren't Kavanaugh's classmates, and it wasn't a random sample of female students from surrounding schools.

The list was started by people looking specifically to support Kavanaugh, meaning they likely solicited others likely to support Kavanaugh. And of course we don't know how many were approached and declined to join the 65. It's meaningless.

Meanwhile, it turns out there is a letter from alumni of Dr. Ford's school: nearly 600 women signed on to a statement that the kind of behavior she described was rife in the culture they shared with Georgetown Prep. Obviously this doesn't make them witnesses to the exact event, but it adds weight to Ford's request that the FBI corroborate that she told people well before Kavanaugh was nominated.