Skinypupy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:25 pm
As always, it doesn’t personally and immediately affect them, therefore it doesn’t matter.
Since Godwin told us it was ok:
“In my work with the defendants I was searching for the nature of evil and I now think I have come close to defining it. A lack of empathy. It’s the one characteristic that connects all the defendants, a genuine incapacity to feel with their fellow men.
Evil, I think, is the absence of empathy.”
Spoiler:
-Captain G. M. Gilbert, the Army psychologist assigned to watching the defendants at the Nuremberg trials (1945-1949)
While he doesn't reach a clear conclusion about its impact on Trump's prospects for reelection, it is clearly hurting his approval in the here-and-now, and the longer it goes on, the more Trump will sink.
For one thing, there’s no particular sign that the shutdown is set to end any time soon. And if the decline in Trump’s approval rating were to continue at the same rate that it has so far, it would take his political standing from bad to worse. By Jan. 29, for example, the day that Trump was originally set to deliver the State of the Union address before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disinvited him from addressing Congress, his approval rating would be 39.3 percent, and his disapproval rating would be 55.9 percent. By March 1, at which point funding for federal food stamps could run out, his approval rating and disapproval rating would be 36.9 percent and 58.4 percent, respectively, roughly matching the lowest point of his presidency so far.
In addition, because this is already the longest shutdown in U.S. history, past precedent for the political impact of shutdowns may not be fully informative. There’s the possibility that the shutdown ends not with a whimper (with Trump caving or with he and Pelosi anticlimactically reaching a compromise) but instead with a literal or proverbial bang, such as the government bungling a response to a natural or man-made disaster.
As Nate notes, though, we're still 22 months from the next election, and the numbers tend to bounce back after a shutdown ends.
Vorret wrote: ↑Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:15 pm
It's only going to get worse. Who do you think will bend first ?
Trump is a poll-driven creature, and my last post shows his support dropping steadily...so if he gets that info, he will fold as soon as he finds a way to save face doing so. OTOH, he's also Fox News-driven, so it's probably up to them to end this. OT third hand, Democrats have a history of folding strong hands, so I won't be surprised if they cave first.
He's poll driven when it's his base. But as long as Ann Coulter or Hannity tell him not to buckle, he'll stick it out. It's frightening how much control over Trump right wing media and celebrities have over this president.
There are some factors compelling action - the TSA situation and I just read the authorized last Food Stamps just went out so chances of a crisis are steadily rising. Against this we see that he is essentially breaking the law. For example, the efforts to make sure tax returns and mortgage applications don't slow down. Most of the experts say that having the people work is illegal. And tax refunds are inherently different than Social Security which is protected from shutdowns. Additionally, he just recalled the State Department even though that is likely illegal. In the end, the OMB is twisting its own opinions into pretzels to enable this. And at Interior they are diverting user fees at parks as well which is probably again...illegal. The obvious problem being that there is pretty much no mechanism to stop him so...why not if it protects his stupid shutdown. All are indications are they are digging in for now by minimizing the damage as they can but via actions with highly authoritarian elements to it. Not great.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't mind the Pelosi and the House bending. They already have and quite frankly, it's improved my opinion of Pelosi. She has pleasantly surprised me at every turn right up until the SotU thing. There has to be a future, somewhere.
But the House cannot break. Giving Trump and McConnell a second glance over their major announcement of the humanitarian crisis on our border? That would have been a break. You cannot roll over to their idea of deals and compromise and will of the people.
BTW, did anyone ever explain to Trump what humanitarian means?
I know a couple of overly paranoid people at my agency are getting worried everyone there is going to be deemed essential by some weird twisting of the rules, with us all forced to work without pay in a couple of weeks once our funding runs out. It's madness that it's even come down to that.
Even my most optimistic agencies who told me there was “no way” their training programs would cancel have now had to remove everything from the calendar. My entire book of business for the next 60 days has disappeared. Even international programs for State and USAID that we were planning for March and April are starting to fall off, because it’s impossible to contract for things when there are no contracting officers working.
I’ll admit that I had extreme bad luck on this one, as I work on the civilian side and literally every one of my clients except two small agencies got hit by the shutdown. It hasn’t affected some of my colleagues at all.
Thankfully, my company has been very understanding and we’ve worked out some arrangements to keep paychecks coming in the short term. This goes much longer though, and theres a chance that patience runs out. Needless to say, the resume has been updated.
Still hoping airports are functional on the 30th so the cruise can still happen.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
“Many employees are reporting that they are not able to report to work due to financial limitations,” according to the statement.
Huh - imagine that.
That sounds a lot like "I don't have money to buy gas"
I never much cared for the TSA and their "Security Theater" but wouldn't wish financial ruin on them.
It was mentioned earlier but they don't have money for a lot of things. Many are turning to gig jobs (that some already had in off hours) to pay the bills. The choice is between going to work and not getting paid or not going to work and getting a gig check.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:19 pmThankfully, my company has been very understanding and we’ve worked out some arrangements to keep paychecks coming in the short term. This goes much longer though, and theres a chance that patience runs out. Needless to say, the resume has been updated.
Glad to hear that arrangements have held thus far. Best of luck for however much longer this fiasco drags out.
hepcat wrote: ↑Mon Jan 21, 2019 12:31 pm
He's poll driven when it's his base. But as long as Ann Coulter or Hannity tell him not to buckle, he'll stick it out. It's frightening how much control over Trump right wing media and celebrities have over this president.
+1. He's popularity driven, and the only litmus test he uses to evaluate that is Fox. If people have evidence that he actually cares what legitimate polls have to say, I'm all ears.
GreenGoo wrote:+1. He's popularity driven, and the only litmus test he uses to evaluate that is Fox. If people have evidence that he actually cares what legitimate polls have to say, I'm all ears.
Well we do know that one of the things that caused him to make his little border wall television appearance was that he and the GOP were getting pummeled in the polls for causing the shutdown. I don't think he himself necessarily cares, but you can be sure that White House officials that have his ear are aware of them. So by extension they influence his behavior at least slightly.
However, we know that with Trump, a slight influence can be wiped away in an instant by one impulsive reaction to a Sean Hannity tweet, so I guess it doesn't really matter in the end.
YellowKing wrote: ↑Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:32 pm
Well we do know that one of the things that caused him to make his little border wall television appearance was that he and the GOP were getting pummeled in the polls for causing the shutdown.
Do we? How do we know that?
I think we can safely assume he's fighting a PR war against the Dems, which I guess we could call "knowing" his actions are poll driven. I'm not so sure, but I guess it doesn't matter if I'm sure or not.
It was reported on mainstream news outlets. Unless you want to believe it was fake news.
I didn't see it. I assume someone leaked it, because he sure as hell isn't going to be discussing that sort of thing in public.
"We're getting hammered" is the Trump quote that matters. It was reported via MSM from several WH sources.
The Trump administration is such a mess that it leaks far more than any well-functioning organization would. Second- (and even first-, until they're fired) level officials are anxious to connect with NYC and DC journalists because they know it gives them credibility for the post-Trump endgame.
2) Massive lines at major airports around the country
3) A security breach
4) Freshmen Democrats panic
5) National emergency declaration
6) Trump gives up
There are probably a couple of other items related to #2 and #3 (catastrophic failure of another gov't agency, such as a massive food illness, etc.), however...
What's missing?
oh yeah, a negotiated compromise. Says a lot about where we are that it isn't even a remote possibility.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
After a week of tit for tat with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, amid a monthlong government shutdown, the White House is now moving ahead with plans for the president's State of the Union address, proceeding as if it were happening as originally planned next week.
White House officials are aiming for the speech to occur before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Jan. 29. But it is far from guaranteed. The House must pass a resolution to call a joint session with the Senate before the president can come speak.
It's unclear whether that will happen; Pelosi hasn't yet weighed in on whether she will allow it.
White House and House Democratic aides confirm to NPR that the White House requested a security walk-through of the U.S. Capitol on Monday. That was declined because of the federal Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
2) Massive lines at major airports around the country
3) A security breach
4) Freshmen Democrats panic
5) National emergency declaration
6) Trump gives up
There are probably a couple of other items related to #2 and #3 (catastrophic failure of another gov't agency, such as a massive food illness, etc.), however...
What's missing?
oh yeah, a negotiated compromise. Says a lot about where we are that it isn't even a remote possibility.
I see that this list was compiled by Cillizza which is not a shock since it literally adds nothing of value to the discussion. He somehow gets paid millions to say what everyone has known for days. That said number 4 is especially stupid. Even for him. 23 freshmen Congress people theoretically freak out. So why does that change anything? Oh and 5 and 6 are the same thing.
Just got breaking news alerts that a possible path out of the Shutdown has been forged between McConnell and Schumer. I was skeptical of progress so I read the details and looks like my doubt was warranted. It looks like it is just a couple of competing votes to fund the Government until 2/8 and the other is the $5.7B wall bill that McConnell was going to bring up anyway. Unless I'm not getting it...how is this a way out? It just sounds like it'll be a goofball bakeoff. And even if they get the funding one through....it is for a couple of weeks. I guess we'll see when details emerge.
President Trump’s legislation to reopen the government appeared almost certain to stall in the Senate, as Democrats condemned the measure’s proposed changes to asylum rules and the Supreme Court on Tuesday undercut the central plank of Trump’s effort to draw Democratic support.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) intends to hold a vote this week on the Trump-backed legislation that would reopen the government and provide $5.7 billion in taxpayer funding for new walls along the U.S.-Mexico border.
...
Democrats’ vow to block the Senate GOP bill leaves no clear path to ending the shutdown. House Democrats aim to pass legislation this week that would reopen the government while blocking any new wall funding, but Trump has repeatedly rejected similar bills and McConnell has said the Senate won’t take them up.
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:45 pm
I see that this list was compiled by Cillizza which is not a shock since it literally adds nothing of value to the discussion. He somehow gets paid millions to say what everyone has known for days. That said number 4 is especially stupid. Even for him. 23 freshmen Congress people theoretically freak out. So why does that change anything? Oh and 5 and 6 are the same thing.
How are 5 (drumpf declares a national emergency) and 6 (drumpf gives up) the same thing?
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:45 pm
I see that this list was compiled by Cillizza which is not a shock since it literally adds nothing of value to the discussion. He somehow gets paid millions to say what everyone has known for days. That said number 4 is especially stupid. Even for him. 23 freshmen Congress people theoretically freak out. So why does that change anything? Oh and 5 and 6 are the same thing.
How are 5 (drumpf declares a national emergency) and 6 (drumpf gives up) the same thing?
Because 5 is how he'll do 6. There is zero chance he just "quits". If it isn't exactly 5 it'll be something thereabouts.
hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:53 pm
My money is on freshman democrats folding.
I think it would be more likely that the "centrist" old guard would fold first.
I'd agree if there was any...any...pressure at all on them.
No wall is the will of the people. Those who realize their jobs are in jeopardy for not doing the will of their constituents are the ones who should logically capitulate. The freshmen congressmen are there in most cases because their predecessor was slow to learn this lesson. They will not be the ones to fold, why would they?
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:20 pm
Because 5 is how he'll do 6. There is zero chance he just "quits". If it isn't exactly 5 it'll be something thereabouts.
That doesn't make any sense. Declaring a national emergency is exactly the opposite of giving up. That's going nuclear. That you don't think he'll give up doesn't mean you can redefine what giving up means.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Senate leadership on Tuesday struck an agreement to vote on dueling proposals to reopen the federal government.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) set up two votes for Thursday afternoon, both of which will require 60 votes to advance.
The first vote will be on President Trump's proposal to to reopen the government, provide $5.7 billion in funding for the border wall and extend legal protections to some immigrants for three years. If that fails, the Senate would then vote on a three-week continuing resolution (CR).
hepcat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:53 pm
My money is on freshman democrats folding.
I think it would be more likely that the "centrist" old guard would fold first.
I'd agree if there was any...any...pressure at all on them.
No wall is the will of the people. Those who realize their jobs are in jeopardy for not doing the will of their constituents are the ones who should logically capitulate. The freshmen congressmen are there in most cases because their predecessor was slow to learn this lesson. They will not be the ones to fold, why would they?
Even so I don't get how they'll move the needle. They'll form an alliance with the Republicans and bypass Pelosi? No chance in hell.
2) Massive lines at major airports around the country
3) A security breach
4) Freshmen Democrats panic
5) National emergency declaration
6) Trump gives up
There are probably a couple of other items related to #2 and #3 (catastrophic failure of another gov't agency, such as a massive food illness, etc.), however...
What's missing?
oh yeah, a negotiated compromise. Says a lot about where we are that it isn't even a remote possibility.
I see that this list was compiled by Cillizza which is not a shock since it literally adds nothing of value to the discussion. He somehow gets paid millions to say what everyone has known for days. That said number 4 is especially stupid. Even for him. 23 freshmen Congress people theoretically freak out. So why does that change anything? Oh and 5 and 6 are the same thing.
Cillizza is the fucking worst. Does he really get paid millions?
Anyway, the problem with the "freshman" (or other democrats) fold theory is that Trump is getting sharply less popular during the shutdown, which disincentivizes cooperation with Trump.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:26 pmAnyway, the problem with the "freshman" (or other democrats) fold theory is that Trump is getting sharply less popular during the shutdown, which disincentivizes cooperation with Trump.
My biggest problem with it is that it is lazy. It is essentially half a story. He found a 'test' subject...aka 23 Dem freshmen who took a Trump district...but doesn't explain why it matters. What does them panicking do? Are they going to break away? Why would they break away? Why should they be worried? Like you said there is no reason to think they are under any pressure or that this is a real scenario but he throws it on his garbage Buzzfeed list anyway.
One of the bills is the GOP bill, which would give the $5.7 billion in wall funding, and the other is the House bill which is just a flat appropriations bill (no other provisions). Both bills are expected to fall short of the 60 vote filibuster threshold, so unlikely to end the shutdown.
