Shutdown

[Isgrimnur]

Bring back the mill!

[Pyperkub]

6 scenarios which could end the Shutdown!

1) Senate Republicans revolt

2) Massive lines at major airports around the country

3) A security breach

4) Freshmen Democrats panic

5) National emergency declaration

6) Trump gives up

There are probably a couple of other items related to #2 and #3 (catastrophic failure of another gov't agency, such as a massive food illness, etc.), however...

What's missing?

oh yeah, a negotiated compromise. Says a lot about where we are that it isn't even a remote possibility.

I see that this list was compiled by Cillizza which is not a shock since it literally adds nothing of value to the discussion. He somehow gets paid millions to say what everyone has known for days. That said number 4 is especially stupid. Even for him. 23 freshmen Congress people theoretically freak out. So why does that change anything? Oh and 5 and 6 are the same thing.

Oops - missed that. I don't think I would have posted it if I'd seen that - his stuff has gotten so shrill it's not worth it.

[malchior]

Senate to vote on two shutdown-ending bills on Thursday.

One of the bills is the GOP bill, which would give the $5.7 billion in wall funding, and the other is the House bill which is just a flat appropriations bill (no other provisions). Both bills are expected to fall short of the 60 vote filibuster threshold, so unlikely to end the shutdown.

I'm trying to figure out why the turtle is doing this. At first, I thought it was a dumb move on Schumer's part but it favors the Democrats in whole. If the Dems just blocked the Trump 'compromise' they'd allow the turtle to blame them for obstruction on a solution. Now they can spread it around. In the end, I'm still not getting this whole thing unless there is some M. Night twist coming along.

[malchior]

Oops - missed that. I don't think I would have posted it if I'd seen that - his stuff has gotten so shrill it's not worth it.

I don't think of it as shrill as more as completely devoid of informational calories.

And here is a now edited! couple of laughs (at least I laughed!) - just cause

[Tao]

This is what Trump and McConnell are calling a "good faith" offer;

https://www.cato.org/blog/senate-gop-bi ... it-guts-it

Miller's fingerprints are all over this.

[Pyperkub]

Senate to vote on two shutdown-ending bills on Thursday.

One of the bills is the GOP bill, which would give the $5.7 billion in wall funding, and the other is the House bill which is just a flat appropriations bill (no other provisions). Both bills are expected to fall short of the 60 vote filibuster threshold, so unlikely to end the shutdown.

I'm trying to figure out why the turtle is doing this. At first, I thought it was a dumb move on Schumer's part but it favors the Democrats in whole. If the Dems just blocked the Trump 'compromise' they'd allow the turtle to blame them for obstruction on a solution. Now they can spread it around. In the end, I'm still not getting this whole thing unless there is some M. Night twist coming along.

At this point in time, any vote is a good vote, though a bipartisan bill would be best.

[Kraken]

My money is on freshman democrats folding.

I think it would be more likely that the "centrist" old guard would fold first.

I'd agree if there was any...any...pressure at all on them.

No wall is the will of the people. Those who realize their jobs are in jeopardy for not doing the will of their constituents are the ones who should logically capitulate. The freshmen congressmen are there in most cases because their predecessor was slow to learn this lesson. They will not be the ones to fold, why would they?

Although the progressive freshmen like Pressley and AOC get most of the press, a majority of the incoming Democrats flipped Republican districts by running as moderates who can work with the Trumpelos. The question is how long Pelosi can command their loyalty.

Because 5 is how he'll do 6. There is zero chance he just "quits". If it isn't exactly 5 it'll be something thereabouts.

That doesn't make any sense. Declaring a national emergency is exactly the opposite of giving up. That's going nuclear. That you don't think he'll give up doesn't mean you can redefine what giving up means.

It would mean giving up on working with Congress through normal channels. He would not be giving up his precious wall, but rather giving up on legitimate governance.

[GreenGoo]

Lol. You can't seriously believe that is what was meant by Drumpf giving up in the context of ending the shutdown?

Possible ways to end the shutdown:

6) Drumpf gives up.

And you are suggesting that actually means not giving up on his wall, but giving up on Congress. Is that right? That's what you understand "giving up" to mean?

[Kraken]

It's how #5 and #6 can be the same thing (malchior's point). Invoking dictatorial powers means he lost the fight.

[Defiant]

Although the progressive freshmen like Pressley and AOC get most of the press, a majority of the incoming Democrats flipped Republican districts by running as moderates who can work with the Trumpelos. The question is how long Pelosi can command their loyalty.

This is true, but (1) they still owe their victory for anti-Trump feeling, and (2) while some (most? all?) want less gridlock and more bipartisan solutions, those solutions have to be truly bipartisan (eg, something reached at through real negotiations, not a Trump "bipartisan" deal that isn't really bipartisan)

And I don't think there are enough moderate freshmen regardless (they would need to swing, what, 19-20 Democrats in the House?). They would need to get some non-freshmen moderates.

[Defiant]

The FBI has lost several informants that had penetrated groups at the center of terrorism investigations.

A task force targeting interstate meth and heroin traffickers has run out of funds to pay for controlled purchases.

Agents working a multi-year MS-13 investigation have resorted to conference calls to communicate with Spanish-speaking sources.

As the partial government shutdown entered a second month, dozens of anonymous FBI officials took the rare step to share how the lack of funding has kneecapped operations in a report released Tuesday by an agents advocacy group.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/22/politics ... index.html

[GreenGoo]

It's how #5 and #6 can be the same thing (malchior's point). Invoking dictatorial powers means he lost the fight.

My point is that how can you honestly think the term "drumpf gives up" is actually "drumpf goes with the nuclear option" in relation to how the shutdown could end? Because that's an insane interpretation, particularly since #6 is "drumpf goes nuclear with the nuclear option".

I mean, I understand what you're saying, but that's a Huckabee-Sanders level stretch.

So what does the expression "Dems give up" mean to you? That they start impeachment proceedings? Because that's on the same level of interpretation as what you're suggesting for drumpf.

[malchior]

It's how #5 and #6 can be the same thing (malchior's point). Invoking dictatorial powers means he lost the fight.

My point is that how can you honestly think the term "drumpf gives up" is actually "drumpf goes with the nuclear option" in relation to how the shutdown could end? Because that's an insane interpretation, particularly since #6 is "drumpf goes nuclear with the nuclear option".

Kraken gets it but it was also mostly just a flippant comment about Cillizza's usual vapid commentary. You've thought about this more than Cillizza did. He is a quasi-pundit. He is the margarine of punditry. He is the Diet Coke of pundits. Just 1 calorie - not pundit-y enough!

[pr0ner]

The FBI has lost several informants that had penetrated groups at the center of terrorism investigations.

A task force targeting interstate meth and heroin traffickers has run out of funds to pay for controlled purchases.

Agents working a multi-year MS-13 investigation have resorted to conference calls to communicate with Spanish-speaking sources.

As the partial government shutdown entered a second month, dozens of anonymous FBI officials took the rare step to share how the lack of funding has kneecapped operations in a report released Tuesday by an agents advocacy group.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/22/politics ... index.html

The continued irony of Trump's shutdown making America genuinely less safe is not lost on me.

[malchior]

The national security angle is interesting because there are some reasonably sharp folks who are making the argument that he wants the shutdown. For example, Sarah Kendzior of the Gaslit Nation podcast has been making this argument since before it began. I thought and still think that she is giving him too much credit.

I personally don't think he is slow-playing autocracy in an intelligent way. It still looks like a side effect of his personality. Still, if you wanted to undermine counter-intelligence and investigations, "blundering" into a stupid shutdown is a great cover story. It probably is his stupidity and narcissism at play but I do wish the Mueller investigation would get something out there because even though he has been moving fast...it still might not be fast enough if Trump is actually working intentionally against our national interests.

[pr0ner]

It doesn't help the FBI (who are, contrary to what Trump says, generally conservative/Republican) to be demonized so much by Trump. I'm not sure the common American is aware of how much counter terrorism work the FBI does domestically. For them to be unable to do that work properly is truly unfortunate.

[malchior]

The Coast Guard situation is pretty dire too. I have extended family who works at a port and they have gotten into conversations where the Coast Guard people are talking about impending food shortages, fuel shortages, etc at the bases. That will have effects on maritime trade...well maritime everything to be expansive eventually. I don't know how much of it is real or just jawing but nonetheless we have armed service members working without pay. It is insanity.

[malchior]

Speaking of Sarah Kendzior - here is a reply to one of her tweets (replying to yet another tweet!) by noted loon and communist Tom Nichols that so happens to cover the same territory. Aka waiting could be bad if he is purposely undermining the country.

[Jeff V]

Although the progressive freshmen like Pressley and AOC get most of the press, a majority of the incoming Democrats flipped Republican districts by running as moderates who can work with the Trumpelos. The question is how long Pelosi can command their loyalty.

But the dumb-ass wall is not a point of contention with moderates. Only extreme Trumptards support it -- these congresspeople won't waiver on this point. A majority of them were elected precisely because the people got tired of their incumbent sucking up to Trump and not exercising their collective will.

[Paingod]

I personally don't think he is slow-playing autocracy in an intelligent way. It still looks like a side effect of his personality.

I'd agree with you. No strategic planning. This is just the side-effect of a government not designed to handle toddler-level temper tantrums by the people in charge. It sucks that it makes him look like he's actually thought something through, even if that thing is horrible and I'd want to attribute it to him.

[Smoove_B]

As long as he can keep ordering people back to work without pay, this will never end. This would all stop in 48 hours if all the unpaid workers were magically sick, had car problems or couldn't otherwise show up to work. The people that need to experience pain are Trump and McConnell, not the workers and certainly not the Coast Guard.

I just saw some poll suggesting support for McConnell was at 25%; Pelosi and Schumer were hovering around 30%. We're doomed. A quarter of people polled think Mitch McConnell is doing super. F him and f those people.

[Kraken]

It's how #5 and #6 can be the same thing (malchior's point). Invoking dictatorial powers means he lost the fight.

My point is that how can you honestly think the term "drumpf gives up" is actually "drumpf goes with the nuclear option" in relation to how the shutdown could end? Because that's an insane interpretation, particularly since #6 is "drumpf goes nuclear with the nuclear option".

I mean, I understand what you're saying, but that's a Huckabee-Sanders level stretch.

So what does the expression "Dems give up" mean to you? That they start impeachment proceedings? Because that's on the same level of interpretation as what you're suggesting for drumpf.

I wasn't advocating malchior's argument, just explaining what I thought he meant. Going nuclear = giving up on negotiating. The only way Trump actually gives up on his wall is if Fox tells him to.

[El Guapo]

I don't know what to make of the votes tomorrow. I saw some speculation on Twitter that it may be McConnell seeking a face-saving way out - let Republican Senators go on record voting for the Wall (if only those obstructionist democrats wouldn't filibuster such an important measure!), to help them in their primaries, and then regretfully allow the House funding bill to pass, as a good faith measure hoping against hope that the Democrats are genuine and will negotiate in good faith with the government open.

I tend to assume, however, that both votes will fall short of the filibuster threshold, and then McConnell will say "well, we tried both our measures, now we need to negotiate a compromise (that is 90% of what Trump wants) or else Democrats are being obstructionists."

[Kraken]

Although the progressive freshmen like Pressley and AOC get most of the press, a majority of the incoming Democrats flipped Republican districts by running as moderates who can work with the Trumpelos. The question is how long Pelosi can command their loyalty.

But the dumb-ass wall is not a point of contention with moderates. Only extreme Trumptards support it -- these congresspeople won't waiver on this point. A majority of them were elected precisely because the people got tired of their incumbent sucking up to Trump and not exercising their collective will.

A new poll says that only 7% of respondents support funding Trump's wall to end the shutdown. 43% are pro-wall and 49% are anti. Also, Trump's disapproval rating hit an all-time high of 57%. (Inexplicably, 40% of us think he's doing a bangup job.)

The 43% pro-wall sentiment goes a little beyond hardcore Trumpelos if you put stock in this poll. His base is around 35%.

Those numbers don't really bear on this argument, though, because individual Congressmen care about the support in their own state/district.

[Isgrimnur]

CNBC

The chairman of President Donald Trump's Council of Economic Advisers said Wednesday the United States could post no economic growth in the first quarter if the federal government does not reopen.

"If [the shutdown] extended for the whole quarter, and given the fact that the first quarter tends to be low because of residual seasonality, then you could end up with a number very close to zero in the first quarter," Kevin Hassett told CNN.

Asked whether GDP growth could hit zero in the quarter, Hassett said "Yes, we could."

"But then again, the second-quarter number would be humongous if the government reopened. It would be like 4 or 5 percent," Hassett said.

[Isgrimnur]

Politico

Despite not working or getting paid for the past month, federal employees furloughed by the government won’t be counted as unemployed in the January jobs report next week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Federal government employees who are working, but who will not be paid until funding is available, are included in employment counts,” BLS wrote in a fact sheet on its website. “Furloughed federal employees who were not working during the reference period, but who will be paid once funding is available, are also included in employment counts.“
...
Over the past few days, some economists expressed worry that the jobs numbers would be affected due to a lapse in funding for the Census Bureau’s household survey, from which BLS draws its employment data. BLS, in the fact sheet, said the data would not be compromised.

“This data collection activity is mostly funded by BLS and, at this time, is not affected by the lapse of appropriation,” BLS wrote. “Therefore, data for January 2019 will be collected as scheduled.“

[Jeff V]

Although the progressive freshmen like Pressley and AOC get most of the press, a majority of the incoming Democrats flipped Republican districts by running as moderates who can work with the Trumpelos. The question is how long Pelosi can command their loyalty.

But the dumb-ass wall is not a point of contention with moderates. Only extreme Trumptards support it -- these congresspeople won't waiver on this point. A majority of them were elected precisely because the people got tired of their incumbent sucking up to Trump and not exercising their collective will.

A new poll says that only 7% of respondents support funding Trump's wall to end the shutdown. 43% are pro-wall and 49% are anti. Also, Trump's disapproval rating hit an all-time high of 57%. (Inexplicably, 40% of us think he's doing a bangup job.)

The 43% pro-wall sentiment goes a little beyond hardcore Trumpelos if you put stock in this poll. His base is around 35%.

Those numbers don't really bear on this argument, though, because individual Congressmen care about the support in their own state/district.

n the new Politico–Morning Consult poll, 72 percent of voters said they oppose putting funding toward a wall even if it's the only way to end the government shutdown.

I take it to mean that 15% are ok with the wall as long as Mexico pays for it (as Trump promised). With only 28% in favor of funding it, that falls within Trump's base.

[Enough]

Cue Eric Cartman's "Whatever, whatever, I do I what I want!"

In a new letter to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, President Donald Trump on Wednesday ignored Pelosi’s request to postpone the State of the Union until the government reopens and said he would be delivering the address as previously scheduled on Jan. 29.

“It would be very sad for our country if the State of the Union were not delivered on time, on schedule and very importantly, on location!” he wrote.

[Smoove_B]

More recently known as "the Kavanaugh".

[Skinypupy]

"But then again, the second-quarter number would be humongous if the government reopened. It would be like 4 or 5 percent," Hassett said.

It's telling about this administration that I immediately just assume that's a number he pulled out of a hat.

[hepcat]

Democrats should tell him they really want the wall. Reverse psychology works great on 9 year olds.

[YellowKing]

I'd love to see the President physically and forcefully prevented from entering the House.

[Jeff V]

Democrats should tell him they really want the wall. Reverse psychology works great on 9 year olds.

Even better, specify that it is to be named "The Barack Obama Presidential Wall" and bear his silhouette every 100 yards.

[Isgrimnur]

"But then again, the second-quarter number would be humongous if the government reopened. It would be like 4 or 5 percent," Hassett said.

It's telling about this administration that I immediately just assume that's a number he pulled out of a hat.

Hassett has attached himself like a tick to every Republican candidate since the end of the 90s..

[YellowKing]

You mean Barack HUSSEIN Obama. #MAGA

[El Guapo]

I'd love to see the President physically and forcefully prevented from entering the House.

I do think that Pelosi made a mistake by just citing security concerns. She should have said "in light of possible security concerns, *and* given that this is not business as usual, you are disinvited.

As it is Trump's argument "you invited me during the shutdown, and federal security agencies tell me that there's no security issue" is a reasonably powerful argument.

[hepcat]

I think any attempt to "out petty" the toddler in chief is doomed to backfire for the responsible party.

[Paingod]

Cue Eric Cartman's "Whatever, whatever, I do I what I want!"

In a new letter to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, President Donald Trump on Wednesday ignored Pelosi’s request to postpone the State of the Union until the government reopens and said he would be delivering the address as previously scheduled on Jan. 29.

“It would be very sad for our country if the State of the Union were not delivered on time, on schedule and very importantly, on location!” he wrote.

What if the entire Democratic assembly failed to show up in protest?

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

BREAKING NEWS: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a letter that the House will not consider a concurrent resolution authorizing the president’s address in the House chamber until the government has opened.

[El Guapo]

WaPo

BREAKING NEWS: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in a letter that the House will not consider a concurrent resolution authorizing the president’s address in the House chamber until the government has opened.

This is the pretty obvious next step for Pelosi. I'm assuming that Trump will wind up speaking to the Senate, but who knows.

Actually, with Trump I could actually see "but I want to give a big speech in front of everyone in Congress!" as an actual reason why Trump might agree to a short-term funding bill.