Ukraine

[Rip]

Russia certainly can change its tune when and if it wants to. Of course, I would think that they would at least leave it more ambiguous - saying that they would need UN Security Council authorization for any action in eastern Ukraine is awfully specific and would cause them unnecessary problems if they later decide to act. That gives me some hope that Russia isn't planning on invading eastern Ukraine.

Yep, the specific part is the kicker here. If they even slightly considered invasion as an option, they would never mention UN Council approval. Since that's like giving live ammo to your opponent. They wouldn't be giving live ammo to anyone if they even thought of more take over as plan D. They trying to show that they are playing fair and after Crimea we wont be seeing them jumping on anything for a while.

Don't look now but you may want to rethink that position.

The official also noted that militants involved in Saturday's unrest in eastern Ukraine "were equipped with specialized Russian weapons and the same uniforms as those worn by the Russian forces that invaded Crimea."
The White House also reacted Saturday, calling on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government to "cease all efforts to destabilize Ukraine."
"We are very concerned by the concerted campaign we see underway in eastern Ukraine today by pro-Russian separatists, apparently with support from Russia, who are inciting violence and sabotage and seeking to undermine and destabilize the Ukrainian state," said National Security Council spokeswoman Laura Lucas Magnuson, in a statement.
"We saw similar so-called protest activities in Crimea before Russia's purported annexation."

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/13/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_c2

As I have said, I don't think Putin is anywhere near done yet.

[tjg_marantz]

Russia is like the bully who puts his finger in your face but doesn't actually touch you. That buildup at the border is just them emboldening (not a word I know) discontent in Ukraine, shit will escalate and then they'll go in claiming self defense of Russian interests.

[paulbaxter]

Russia is like the bully who puts his finger in your face but doesn't actually touch you. That buildup at the border is just them emboldening (not a word I know) discontent in Ukraine, shit will escalate and then they'll go in claiming self defense of Russian interests.

They've already gone a ways down this road at this point.

Also, and I keep coming back to this point, Putin has been waging a non-stop, multiple front propaganda war. BBC radio was interviewing folks in a medium sized Russian town Friday. The TV stations had been reporting that Russian troops were only present to assist threatened Russians in Ukraine. The BBC reporters asked people if they believed the television stories. They replied that they couldn't believe that the stories could be made up. They had to be true. I think there are a lot of Russians who just aren't aware that the government owns all of the television stations or haven't thought about how that might affect what they get as news.

I also see plenty of Americans who believe this crap about how somehow NATO and the US are responsible for all of this since somehow NATO has been threatening Russia's interests. It's like if kids who had been bullied turn to the authorities for help, then get beat up again. I guess they shouldn't have looked for help. Should have stayed with the bully.

[Holman]

Also, and I keep coming back to this point, Putin has been waging a non-stop, multiple front propaganda war. BBC radio was interviewing folks in a medium sized Russian town Friday. The TV stations had been reporting that Russian troops were only present to assist threatened Russians in Ukraine. The BBC reporters asked people if they believed the television stories. They replied that they couldn't believe that the stories could be made up. They had to be true. I think there are a lot of Russians who just aren't aware that the government owns all of the television stations or haven't thought about how that might affect what they get as news.

Interesting NYT article on the climate of opinion in Russia:

“Some Western politicians are already threatening us not just with sanctions but also the prospect of increasingly serious problems on the domestic front,” the president said in his speech announcing plans to absorb Crimea into the Russian Federation. “I would like to know what they have in mind exactly: action by a fifth column, this disparate bunch of ‘national traitors,’ or are they hoping to put us in a worsening social and economic situation so as to provoke public discontent?”

Moscow today is a proudly international city, where skateboarders in Gorky Park wear New York Yankees hats they bought on vacation in America, and where the designer French or Italian handbags might just as well have been picked out in Paris or Milan as in one of the boutiques in Red Square. Apple iPhones and iPads are nearly as common on the subway here as they are in Washington.

In the weeks since the military incursion into Crimea, however, Russian flags have been hung from the windows of apartment buildings all over the city, just as American flags appeared in profusion after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

There is also now a website with a name that translates as “traitor.net” that includes photos and quotations of public figures who have spoken out in some way against Russia’s policy toward Ukraine. The bottom of the site has a button inviting viewers to “suggest a traitor.”

[paulbaxter]

Also, and I keep coming back to this point, Putin has been waging a non-stop, multiple front propaganda war. BBC radio was interviewing folks in a medium sized Russian town Friday. The TV stations had been reporting that Russian troops were only present to assist threatened Russians in Ukraine. The BBC reporters asked people if they believed the television stories. They replied that they couldn't believe that the stories could be made up. They had to be true. I think there are a lot of Russians who just aren't aware that the government owns all of the television stations or haven't thought about how that might affect what they get as news.

Interesting NYT article on the climate of opinion in Russia:

“Some Western politicians are already threatening us not just with sanctions but also the prospect of increasingly serious problems on the domestic front,” the president said in his speech announcing plans to absorb Crimea into the Russian Federation. “I would like to know what they have in mind exactly: action by a fifth column, this disparate bunch of ‘national traitors,’ or are they hoping to put us in a worsening social and economic situation so as to provoke public discontent?”

Moscow today is a proudly international city, where skateboarders in Gorky Park wear New York Yankees hats they bought on vacation in America, and where the designer French or Italian handbags might just as well have been picked out in Paris or Milan as in one of the boutiques in Red Square. Apple iPhones and iPads are nearly as common on the subway here as they are in Washington.

In the weeks since the military incursion into Crimea, however, Russian flags have been hung from the windows of apartment buildings all over the city, just as American flags appeared in profusion after the Sept. 11 terror attacks.

There is also now a website with a name that translates as “traitor.net” that includes photos and quotations of public figures who have spoken out in some way against Russia’s policy toward Ukraine. The bottom of the site has a button inviting viewers to “suggest a traitor.”

There are, no doubt, plenty of parallels to the Iraq war(s). In our favor, we allowed for vocal dissent. But arguing against us, we pretty thoroughly screwed over another country anyway. This just seems to be what happens in the world. I have little doubt that at some point China will start attacking somebody somewhere over something. War is to politicians what chili cheese fries are to dieters with poor self control.

[Grifman]

I'e read that if Putin is going to move, he needs to move before the end of May. At that time, the one year Russian conscripts finish up their term of duty and a new batch comes in. Not the best time to invade another country. I doubt know that Russia has enough long term professional units to do it by themselves.

[Isgrimnur]

The US Military regularly extended tours and stop-lossed people during our current wartime footing without much of an outcry. I seriously doubt Putin would think twice about forcing the current troops to stay in if he needs them to stick around.

[Matrix]

The US Military regularly extended tours and stop-lossed people during our current wartime footing without much of an outcry. I seriously doubt Putin would think twice about forcing the current troops to stay in if he needs them to stick around.

Yep, thats pretty much covers it. They will stay as long as needed.

Things are getting more complicated, will see on Thursday if they get any solution. If i would guess, i expect Russia to want/get Ukrenian agreement that Crimea is rightfully theirs, because if Ukraine agrees to it, then the whole world will. As soon as they get it, all this unrest in Ukraine and rising gas prices will be forgotten and magically improve. I feel like Russia is ratcheting up pressure on Ukraine to buy in hook and sinker on Crimea and then they will unscrew the screws.

[tripcrow]

OK let me see how close I come to understanding this Ukraine thing.
The country was closely divided between a pro-Western population that mostly supported or are descendents of those that supported the Nazis during their last war and a pro-Russian slight majority that fought with the Russians.
The last presidential election a pro-Russian is picked as their president.
The pro-Russian President makes a deal with the Russians that the pro-Westerners do not like. So they mass protest in the capital that is in a pro-Western area and over-throw the democratically elected President because the Russians or pro-Russian don't bus in counter protesters from other parts of the country.
The pro-Russians in Crimea feel wronged and vote to leave the new Ukraine government. Obama says that leaving the new rebel formed government is unconstitutional. (I take that to mean that the new protest formed government is somehow constitutional?)
The rest of the pro-Russian majority in the eastern section of the old Ukraine now realize they are screwed because without Crimea they are now a definite minority and want out of Ukraine too.
But because the pro-Western Ukrainians don't ride horses without a cowboy hat and shirt, are more libertarian and will be more likely to participate in our banking and economic system we should force the pro-Russian regions (They must also be anti-gay-rights which is more important to most than fighting the pro-nuke bomb policies of the American lead West)(Guess now Obama has an excuse not to get back to Putin after the election like he promised after their last failed disarmament talks that Obama blamed on the American right) to abandon their ties to the Russians that last liberated them by arms from the Nazis and gave them their independence from the old Soviet Union. Of course I'm to believe those arms came from America and the Soviet Union fell because Regan scarred em.
But I must be brainwashed not to understand why anyone wouldn't fall in line with the West's priorities list.

[Rip]

What you are missing is that the former President was ousted by a majority that INCLUDED those from his party. So yea the old government was ousted and the new one formed within the constitution. That change was made and new elections scheduled that should have allowed all a say.

The original ousting was about the previous administration not just backing off a western agreement to enter one with Russia but because they forcefully put down protesters and used police special forces to murder unarmed protesters with snipers. It isn't just a pro west versus pro Russia civil strife that you are trying to make it sound like.

[Combustible Lemur]

What you are missing is that the former President was ousted by a majority that INCLUDED those from his party. So yea the old government was ousted and the new one formed within the constitution. That change was made and new elections scheduled that should have allowed all a say.

The original ousting was about the previous administration not just backing off a western agreement to enter one with Russia but because they forcefully put down protesters and used police special forces to murder unarmed protesters with snipers. It isn't just a pro west versus pro Russia civil strife that you are trying to make it sound like.

Also that RUSSIA most likely is instigating and militarily supporting the pro Russians in Ukraine.

Sent courtesy of the Galaxy.... note2.

[El Guapo]

FYI tripcrow has an extraordinarily loose association with reality, even for R&P.

[tripcrow]

Well them dumb Ruskie lovers. They should have just went and done what us Americans do. Replace President Nixon with Ford. Have Ford pardon Nixon and bury the Kent State massacre under investigation after investigation.

[Rip]

Well them dumb Ruskie lovers. They should have just went and done what us Americans do. Replace President Nixon with Ford. Have Ford pardon Nixon and bury the Kent State massacre under investigation after investigation.

Now you are just trolling...and showing how clueless you really are.

[tripcrow]

See things haven't changed here. When confronted with something you don't like it is time to start with the personal attacks.

Waiting on an apology........

[Rip]

See things haven't changed here. When confronted with something you don't like it is time to start with the personal attacks.

Waiting on an apology........

Sorry but saying someone is clueless to facts isn't a personal attack.

[tripcrow]

Oh come on. It'll only hurt for a little while.

[Rip]

Perhaps the EU is finally deciding it must take a more stringent stance?

As violence escalates in eastern Ukraine, Europe is moving toward an action some thought it might never take: the imposition of stringent economic sanctions on Russia. Angela Merkel, the Russian-speaking German chancellor whose country has more at stake financially than any other, is leading the charge.

Until recently, much of the toughest talk of sanctions was coming from Washington, while the Europeans were regarded as—well, wimps. But now, Berlin “is already busy coordinating the next phase of sanctions behind the scenes,” a high-ranking German government official tells Bloomberg News. “These economic sanctions will be much wider-ranging and also more hurtful to business interests.”

Merkel has fired two warning shots at Moscow in recent days. Berlin announced today that Germany had suspended granting licenses for arms exports to Russia, after saying on April 11 that a planned $973 million satellite-technology deal between Russia and Airbus Group (AIR:FP) had been put on hold.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... ns#r=hp-ls

[paulbaxter]

What you are missing is that the former President was ousted by a majority that INCLUDED those from his party. So yea the old government was ousted and the new one formed within the constitution. That change was made and new elections scheduled that should have allowed all a say.

The original ousting was about the previous administration not just backing off a western agreement to enter one with Russia but because they forcefully put down protesters and used police special forces to murder unarmed protesters with snipers. It isn't just a pro west versus pro Russia civil strife that you are trying to make it sound like.

He also missed that the Crimeans didn't actually take any action at all. They never felt wronged. That was completely invented by Russia as a pretext for invasion, aided by the fact that Ukraine had a weak provisional government in Kiev. And he missed the fact that the previous pro-Russian governments (Kuchma and Yanukovich) have a consistent history of killing those who speak in opposition to them. And the fact that the previous government took $20 billion in gold reserves and another $37 billion in loans out of the country. This in a country where the GDP is less than $200 billion. That's roughly equivalent to a US administration trying to steal $2 trillion for personal use.

[El Guapo]

See things haven't changed here. When confronted with something you don't like it is time to start with the personal attacks.

Waiting on an apology........

When confronted with lunacy I generally politely note that it is lunacy. Mostly I'm saying that you seem to operate on a different wavelength than most. That could be good or bad - I could be wrong, and maybe you see the truth where I do not.

[Carpet_pissr]

Heavy gunfire at airport - Ukraine troops moving against pro-Russia militia.

Shit's getting real, now.

Apparently, to date, many government buildings in Ukraine have been taken over by pro-Russian militia, with no response from the Ukraine government. Crazy.

[Isgrimnur]

The Ukrainian government had given them a Monday morning deadline to lay down arms and leave the government buildings that they'd seized. And you never kick the door in immediately after the deadline expires.

[Carpet_pissr]

I guess we will find out soon enough if this was just the pretext Putin (and his troops amassed on the border) was waiting for to grab more of Ukraine.

[Rip]

Hilarious to me for Russia to be warning Ukraine to not use force against the protesters as though if any anti-Russian protesters anywhere decided to take over some Russian facilities they would hesitate to mow them down like animals. Hypocrites doesn't even begin to cover it.

[Carpet_pissr]

Hilarious to me for Russia to be warning Ukraine to not use force against the protesters as though if any anti-Russian protesters anywhere decided to take over some Russian facilities they would hesitate to mow them down like animals. Hypocrites doesn't even begin to cover it.

Yeah, I really don't get that. If you are a leader concerned about how your pending actions will be construed by the rest of the world, it makes sense to make those comments prior to action. Then when you go in balls out, guns blazing, you can say "but I WARNED them not to crack down on the protesters!"

But Putin has shown he doesn't care about world opinion on this, and specifically not the US (he made the comments about not cracking down on protesters to Obama, I assume to pass along to Ukraine's leadership)

[paulbaxter]

Military action has gotten started:
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine ... 43563.html

[paulbaxter]

More Russian PR at work:
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-brink-civ ... 43553.html

[GreenGoo]

Hilarious to me for Russia to be warning Ukraine to not use force against the protesters as though if any anti-Russian protesters anywhere decided to take over some Russian facilities they would hesitate to mow them down like animals. Hypocrites doesn't even begin to cover it.

They aren't being hypocritical. Well, they are, but not without purpose.

It's clear that they are fostering instability within the Ukraine. The Pro-Russia protesters are almost certainly funded by Russia. Some may in fact be Russian citizens and/or military in civilian clothes. Putin is almost certainly counting on one of two scenarios.

1) Ukraine government loses more and more control, possibly allowing for more "referendums" in which Russia gobbles up more of the Ukraine "peacefully"
or
2) Ukraine government cracks down on dissendents, and Putin cranks the propaganda machine to 11, and goes in militarily to "save" the poor, put upon ethnic Russians being trampled by the Ukraine government.

Either the Ukraine falls apart completely, allowing more options for Russia to take control (either literally or through a figurehead) or Russia has to step in militarily to stop "human rights violations" by the Ukraine government against ethnic Russians.

That's my view of his actions and words, and the situation in the Ukraine. The "protesters" are absolutely being stirred up/funded by Russia. And like I said, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that many of them aren't even Ukrainian citizens.

Carpet_pissr, I think Putin does care about public opinion, at least enough to keep the world from stepping in. The propaganda campaign is proof that he's willing to spend time and effort keeping the world on its back foot.

[paulbaxter]

Hilarious to me for Russia to be warning Ukraine to not use force against the protesters as though if any anti-Russian protesters anywhere decided to take over some Russian facilities they would hesitate to mow them down like animals. Hypocrites doesn't even begin to cover it.

They aren't being hypocritical. Well, they are, but not without purpose.

It's clear that they are fostering instability within the Ukraine. The Pro-Russia protesters are almost certainly funded by Russia. Some may in fact be Russian citizens and/or military in civilian clothes. Putin is almost certainly counting on one of two scenarios.

1) Ukraine government loses more and more control, possibly allowing for more "referendums" in which Russia gobbles up more of the Ukraine "peacefully"
or
2) Ukraine government cracks down on dissendents, and Putin cranks the propaganda machine to 11, and goes in militarily to "save" the poor, put upon ethnic Russians being trampled by the Ukraine government.

Either the Ukraine falls apart completely, allowing more options for Russia to take control (either literally or through a figurehead) or Russia has to step in militarily to stop "human rights violations" by the Ukraine government against ethnic Russians.

That's my view of his actions and words, and the situation in the Ukraine. The "protesters" are absolutely being stirred up/funded by Russia. And like I said, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that many of them aren't even Ukrainian citizens.

Carpet_pissr, I think Putin does care about public opinion, at least enough to keep the world from stepping in. The propaganda campaign is proof that he's willing to spend time and effort keeping the world on its back foot.

Sounds exactly right to me,

[El Guapo]

Hilarious to me for Russia to be warning Ukraine to not use force against the protesters as though if any anti-Russian protesters anywhere decided to take over some Russian facilities they would hesitate to mow them down like animals. Hypocrites doesn't even begin to cover it.

They aren't being hypocritical. Well, they are, but not without purpose.

It's clear that they are fostering instability within the Ukraine. The Pro-Russia protesters are almost certainly funded by Russia. Some may in fact be Russian citizens and/or military in civilian clothes. Putin is almost certainly counting on one of two scenarios.

1) Ukraine government loses more and more control, possibly allowing for more "referendums" in which Russia gobbles up more of the Ukraine "peacefully"
or
2) Ukraine government cracks down on dissendents, and Putin cranks the propaganda machine to 11, and goes in militarily to "save" the poor, put upon ethnic Russians being trampled by the Ukraine government.

Either the Ukraine falls apart completely, allowing more options for Russia to take control (either literally or through a figurehead) or Russia has to step in militarily to stop "human rights violations" by the Ukraine government against ethnic Russians.

That's my view of his actions and words, and the situation in the Ukraine. The "protesters" are absolutely being stirred up/funded by Russia. And like I said, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that many of them aren't even Ukrainian citizens.

Carpet_pissr, I think Putin does care about public opinion, at least enough to keep the world from stepping in. The propaganda campaign is proof that he's willing to spend time and effort keeping the world on its back foot.

Yeah, sounds about right. As to #1, as long as Ukraine's government remains pro-Western it's in Putin's interest to reduce stability there. Even if Putin can't get the Ukraine to adopt a constitution that gives devolves more power to pro-Russian regions, Putin still benefits from keeping Ukraine from being unified, stable, prosperous and (therefore) more powerful.

I think Matrix may have raised this, but #3 is that Putin uses this pressure to try to persuade the Ukraine to at least semi-officially recognize the departure of the Crimea. Unless the Ukraine recognizes Russia's annexation of Crimea then the world won't, and as long as the world doesn't recognize it then there's a material risk of Russia losing the Crimea some years or decades down the line. With the pressure from the unrest Putin can say to the Ukraine - "you agree to recognize our annexation of Crimea and all this goes away."

Of course none of these three objectives are really inconsistent with each other - they're all options that Putin has available to him depending on how the situation evolves.

[Rip]

Sounds like the shit is beginning to hit the fan.

[Holman]

Anne Applebaum on Putin's new kind of warfare.

Applebaum is the go-to expert on Soviet repression, and she finds herself much in demand these days.

[Rip]

So after the pro-westerners of being Nazis it is the pro-Russians that have the audacity to actaully act like Nazis.

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... e/7816951/

[GargoyleBoy]

Not sure if this is an official action from the pro-Russian side or not, or even if it's serious or just an attempt at bullying, but it's troubling.

[Rip]

Not sure if this is an official action from the pro-Russian side or not, or even if it's serious or just an attempt at bullying, but it's troubling.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the reports.

Pushilin acknowledged that fliers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

[El Guapo]

What I would wager is that the groups are Kremlin-supported, but that the Kremlin did not know about nor sanction the anti-semitic leaflets. Really hard to see that being the Kremlin's idea since it marginally raises the odds of a western intervention while not really getting anything material for Russia.

Does highlight that we should not let Russian forces dominate eastern Ukraine, though.

[GargoyleBoy]

Not sure if this is an official action from the pro-Russian side or not, or even if it's serious or just an attempt at bullying, but it's troubling.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the reports.

Pushilin acknowledged that fliers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

erkay... posting a quote from the article I read before I posted... is supposed to answer my question how?

If you're clear on who's responsible, please enlighten me. Because it seems like everyone's denying responsibility.

[El Guapo]

Not sure if this is an official action from the pro-Russian side or not, or even if it's serious or just an attempt at bullying, but it's troubling.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the reports.

Pushilin acknowledged that fliers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

erkay... posting a quote from the article I read before I posted... is supposed to answer my question how?

If you're clear on who's responsible, please enlighten me. Because it seems like everyone's denying responsibility.

Well it's clearly from the "pro-Russian side" defined as "those who want to align more with Russia (and probably separate from the rest of the Ukraine)". The pro-Russian groups are clearly supported as a general matter by the Kremlin.

The relevant questions are: is this particular pro-Russian group supported by the Kremlin? Probably - hard to imagine that a group taking control of an important city like Donetsk has no contact with the Russian government. Did the Kremlin sanction (or have prior knowledge of) the pamphlets? Hard to say - my guess is probably not, because it probably hurt's Russia's interests overall.

[GargoyleBoy]

I think it's a mental trap to assume that the Kremlin didn't sanction it because it hurts them in the end. People make mistakes. So do governments. We can't assume the people at the Kremlin automatically know what's best for Russia, any more than our own government knows what's best for the U.S.

[El Guapo]

I think it's a mental trap to assume that the Kremlin didn't sanction it because it hurts them in the end. People make mistakes. So do governments. We can't assume the people at the Kremlin automatically know what's best for Russia, any more than our own government knows what's best for the U.S.

Sure. And there are probably anti-semites within Russia's government. That said, absent inside knowledge that it would make very little sense for Russia to do it is a reasonable basis for surmising that Russia probably did not do it.